GDT: Game 61: Sharks @ Senators 4:00pm NBCSCA

[weastern bias]

Hmmm… I’d take at least one more win than last season….

20 wins is plenty realistic

Our win% on the year is 24.59%

To win 5 of the last 21 games would be a win% of 23.8%

It wouldn't even require the team to play beyond their record, we would literally be playing below the season record to date to pass last year's win total

It would also only guarantee us 49 points in the standings, so we could do so and still maintain our top lotto odds, though that wouldn't be a guarantee given the Blackhawks just sent off their best defenseman

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[rekrul]

Players know exactly what is going on. This roster is not 5-24-4, no flipping way.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

20 wins is plenty realistic

Our win% on the year is 24.59%

To win 5 of the last 21 games would be a win% of 23.8%

It wouldn't even require the team to play beyond their record, we would literally be playing below the season record to date to pass last year's win total

It would also only guarantee us 49 points in the standings, so we could do so and still maintain our top lotto odds, though that wouldn't be a guarantee given the Blackhawks just sent off their best defenseman\

The team just needs to get through the rest of the season and then go from wherever they're at. The players we're trying to build around are getting valuable experience regardless and will be better next season. The team will also fill out around them with more players that are better than what we've had. The fans just need to wait it out. They're still on the upswing.

Players know exactly what is going on. This roster is not 5-24-4, no flipping way.

And what's going on? They were a bad team before Blackwood got dealt. They're even worse now that they moved Granlund and Ceci. It's okay. They're still on the right track.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Very genuinely, just a halfway decent season next year alone from Askarov is going to bump us up ten points in the standings at least.

That game goes to OT without Vanecek's blunder.

 

[coooldude]

Very genuinely, just a halfway decent season next year alone from Askarov is going to bump us up ten points in the standings at least.

That game goes to OT without Vanecek's blunder.

And last game, we probably win in regulation.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Juxtaposer]

And last game, we probably win in regulation.

Yup, exactly.

Some analysis was done a while back suggesting that the results of one-goal games was basically random. I don't know if I quite believe that, but there definitely a lot of luck and variance involved and the Sharks have not caught a single break this season.

More than that, we're really seeing the late-stage Martin Jones effect on this team: you come out flying, dominate your opponent, your goaltender gives up a goal within the first couple of shots, and now you're deflated. That isn't to say that I blame Vanecek specifically for the SHG, but you need your goalie to come up with saves in important moments and that was one.

 

[rekrul]

There is no plan or confidence in this coaching staff- Players can't fix it on their own.

Frankly seeing this same movie every night makes me question a lot of the front office personnel not being able to find any solution. Clowe, Ricci, Thornton, Marleau, doug weight, Nabokov- do they just like hanging at the rink and collecting a paycheck or can they help the coaching staff out. Alls fun when they are improving but no way this roster plays at this level. And losing in the 3rd period should be a mental/tactical fix.

 

[coooldude]

Yup, exactly.

Some analysis was done a while back suggesting that the results of one-goal games was basically random. I don't know if I quite believe that, but there definitely a lot of luck and variance involved and the Sharks have not caught a single break this season.

More than that, we're really seeing the late-stage Martin Jones effect on this team: you come out flying, dominate your opponent, your goaltender gives up a goal within the first couple of shots, and now you're deflated. That isn't to say that I blame Vanecek specifically for the SHG, but you need your goalie to come up with saves in important moments and that was one.

Yep, I counted yesterday and we're at 39 out of 61 games that were "close", finished as a 1 goal game or ENs made it not a one goal game. We've won 10 and now lost 29 (obviously includes all OT). The other side of the distribution might have us winning 5-10 more of those games but that would be puck luck the other way and it wouldn't be good for the rebuild. Goaltending I'm sure has lost us 3-5 clearly.

As it is, it would be nice to have won 3-5 more of these leads into the third, but... We're still only 2 points back of Chicago, so, silver linings.

FWIW this is why I'm not worried about the locker room or the kids this year. We're in a lot of games.

 

[Cas]

Players know exactly what is going on. This roster is not 5-24-4, no flipping way.

This roster is.

This is a team where literally every player is playing at least a line above their current talent, and which dresses at least six players every night who should be in the press box of a lower league.

Yes, this team is really, truly, awful garbage. It'll get better, but this team as constructed is just astonishingly awful, and I don't know why people insist that it is not.

There is no plan or confidence in this coaching staff- Players can't fix it on their own.

Frankly seeing this same movie every night makes me question a lot of the front office personnel not being able to find any solution. Clowe, Ricci, Thornton, Marleau, doug weight, Nabokov- do they just like hanging at the rink and collecting a paycheck or can they help the coaching staff out. Alls fun when they are improving but no way this roster plays at this level. And losing in the 3rd period should be a mental/tactical fix.

Yes, some of those guys are just kind of hanging out. I have yet to see any indication that Marleau, Thornton, or Nabokov have any real coaching or scouting acumen.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Very genuinely, just a halfway decent season next year alone from Askarov is going to bump us up ten points in the standings at least.

That game goes to OT without Vanecek's blunder.

I'm sure with the right moves, you could see a 20+ point improvement next year given the young talent on this team.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yep, I counted yesterday and we're at 39 out of 61 games that were "close", finished as a 1 goal game or ENs made it not a one goal game. We've won 10 and now lost 29 (obviously includes all OT). The other side of the distribution might have us winning 5-10 more of those games but that would be puck luck the other way and it wouldn't be good for the rebuild.

As it is, it would be nice to have won 3-5 more of these leads into the third, but... We're still only 2 points back of Chicago, so, silver linings.

FWIW this is why I'm not worried about the locker room or the kids this year. We're in a lot of games.

Agreed. These games are competitive until the end. I know guys like Celebrini and Smith have probably never been on a losing team in their lives, but so long as the games are competitive I'm not worried. I think Eklund and Zetterlund deserve a LOT of credit for how they handled last season, that could not have been easy and isn't comparable to this season at all.

A bit of luck, a full season from Askarov, improvement from the kids, and a couple new top-4 defensemen will have this team inching towards respectability next season. I mean, Anaheim skaters blow chunks but they're way higher in the standings purely because their goaltenders are both having great seasons.

 

[SJSharksfan39]

SNOG announcement​

A new/old sorta-challenger for the SNOG lead has emerged.



Congrats @SJSharksfan39 on your 4th SNOG of the season!

View attachment 985248

Spoiler: 2024-25 First-half SNOG Results

#	Date / Opponent​	SNOG Winner(s)​	Result​
1	Oct. 10 vs Blues	none	Blues 5-4 OT
2	Oct. 12 vs Ducks	none	Ducks 2-0
3	Oct. 15 at Stars	weastern bias	Stars 3-2 SO
4	Oct. 17 at Blackhawks	weastern bias	Blackhawks 4-2
5	Oct. 18 at Jets	none	Jets 8-3
6	Oct. 20 vs Avalanche	none	Avalanche 4-1
7	Oct. 22 at Ducks	Timo Time	Ducks 3-1
8	Oct. 24 at Kings	Friday	Kings 3-2
9	Oct. 26 at VGK	none	VGK 7-3
10	Oct. 28 at Utah	none	Sharks 5-4 OT
11	Oct. 29 vs Kings	MackAttack71, bluefunnel, sharks_dynasty	Sharks 4-2
12	Oct. 31 vs Blackhawks	none	Sharks 3-2
13	Nov. 2 vs Canucks	none	Canucks 3-2
14	Nov. 5 vs Blue Jackets	none	Sharks 2-1 OT
15	Nov. 7 vs Wild	timorous me	Wild 5-2
16	Nov. 10 at Devils	none	Sharks 1-0
17	Nov. 11 at Flyers	TheBigDrunkPanda	Flyers 4-3 SO
18	Nov. 14 at Rangers	none	Rangers 3-2
19	Nov. 16 at Penguins	PattyLafontaine	Penguins 4-3 SO
20	Nov. 18 vs Red Wings	none	Sharks 5-4 OT
21	Nov. 20 at Stars	weastern bias	Stars 5-2
22	Nov. 21 at Blues	bullslugg, coooldude	Blues 3-2 SO
23	Nov. 23 vs Sabres	none	Sabres 4-2
24	Nov. 25 vs Kings	none	Sharks 7-2
25	Nov. 27 vs Senators	coooldude, PattyLafontaine	Senators 4-3
26	Nov. 29 vs Kraken	none	Sharks 8-5
27	Nov. 30 at Kraken	bluefunnel	Sharks 4-2
28	Dec. 3 at Capitals	none	Sharks 2-1 OT
29	Dec. 5 at Lightning	none	Lightning 8-1
30	Dec. 7 at Panthers	none	Panthers 3-1
31	Dec. 10 at Hurricanes	Timo Time	Hurricanes 3-2
32	Dec. 12 at Blues	MackAttack71	Sharks 4-3
33	Dec. 14 vs Utah	bullslugg	Hockey Club 4-3
34	Dec. 17 vs Jets	SJSharksfan39	Jets 4-3
35	Dec. 19 vs Avalanche	anthonyyy	Avalanche 4-2
36	Dec. 21 at Oilers	PattyLafontaine	Oilers 3-2 OT
37	Dec. 23 at Canucks	Timo Time	Canucks 4-3
38	Dec. 27 vs VGK	SJSharksfan39	VGK 6-3
39	Dec. 28 vs Flames	none	Flames 3-1
40	Dec. 31 vs Flyers	none	Flyers 4-0
41	Jan. 2 vs Lightning	none	Sharks 2-1

#	Date / Opponent​	SNOG Winner(s)​	Result​
42	Jan. 4 vs Devils	LadyStanley	Sharks 3-2
43	Jan. 7 vs VGK	weastern bias	VGK 4-2
44	Jan. 10 at Utah	none	Hockey Club 2-1
45	Jan. 11 vs Wild	weastern bias	Wild 3-1
46	Jan. 14 at Red Wings	none	Sharks 6-3
47	Jan. 16 at Blue Jackets	weastern bias	Blue Jackets 4-1
48	Jan. 18 at Islanders	TheBeard	Islanders 4-1
49	Jan. 20 at Bruins	none	Bruins 6-3
50	Jan. 21 at Predators	none	Predators 7-5
51	Jan. 23 vs Predators	Great Makohead Shork	Predators 6-5
52	Jan. 25 vs Panthers	SJSharksfan39	Panthers 7-2
53	Jan. 27 vs Penguins	none	Sharks 2-1
54	Jan. 30 at Kraken	none	Kraken 6-2
55	Feb. 4 vs Canadiens	none	Canadiens 4-3
56	Feb. 6 vs Canucks	none	Canucks 2-1
57	Feb. 8 vs Stars	none	Stars 8-3
58	Feb. 23 at Flames	Star Platinum	Flames 3-2
59	Feb. 24 at Jets	none	Jets 2-1 OT
60	Feb. 27 at Canadiens	bullslugg	Canadiens 4-3 OT
61	Mar. 1 at Senators	SJSharksfan39	Senators 5-3

Rank	2024-25 SNOG standings​	# of SNOGs
1.	weastern bias	6
2	SJSharksfan39	4
T-.3	bullslugg, PattyLafontaine, Timo Time	3
T-6.	bluefunnel, coooldude, MackAttack71	2
T-9.	anthonyyy, Friday, Great Makohead Shork, LadyStanley, sharks_dynasty, Star Platinum, TheBeard, TheBigDrunkPanda, timorous me	1

I completely forgot about the SNOG prediction. Nice. At least I'm improving on my SNOG. I looked at the Sharks record this time last year, and they are basically the same as where they are this year. It would be nice to get 20 wins, but I'm doubting that now.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Just having walman and Ferraro playing so much hurts the development of the rookies. So i would rather the rookies learn the hard way like smith and celebrini are having to do this year.

Celebrini is an outlier (maybe Schaefer is one), and Smith has been getting sheltered plenty (development days, anyone?).

 

[karltonian]

So the sharks aren't winning but they are stringing together games where they outpossess the opponent. That is a significant change from the hopelessness last year and at times earlier this season.

 

[Anomie2029]

20 wins is plenty realistic

Our win% on the year is 24.59%

To win 5 of the last 21 games would be a win% of 23.8%

It wouldn't even require the team to play beyond their record, we would literally be playing below the season record to date to pass last year's win total

It would also only guarantee us 49 points in the standings, so we could do so and still maintain our top lotto odds, though that wouldn't be a guarantee given the Blackhawks just sent off their best defenseman

This team since October has been worse than last season’s team. If we follow the trend, I wouldn’t expect them to keep the current - I really don’t expect them to get 19 wins at this rate.

They all look like they know they’re going to lose. That’s what I’m really concerned about - there is being competitive in losses, and then there is this constant blowing of leads going into the third. This is the kind of stuff Buffalo did and they’ve never been able to get out of the cellar.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

This team since October has been worse than last season’s team. If we follow the trend, I wouldn’t expect them to keep the current - I really don’t expect them to get 19 wins at this rate.

They all look like they know they’re going to lose. That’s what I’m really concerned about - there is being competitive in losses, and then there is this constant blowing of leads going into the third. This is the kind of stuff Buffalo did and they’ve never been able to get out of the cellar.

This year we have traded our #1 goalie, leading scorer, and best right shot defenseman. Any team in the league would take a significant drop after losing those 3 pieces. This year’s team, when fully formed, was significantly better than last year.

 

[Hodge]

Goodrow-Dellandrea-Kunin is a championship worthy fourth line. Hope we can extend Kunin and keep them together long term.

 

[coooldude]

Goodrow-Dellandrea-Kunin is a championship worthy fourth line. Hope we can extend Kunin and keep them together long term.

Oh boy, I really don't think so... They've had two okay games but championship is stretching it a bit too far. Maybe fringe playoff?

 

[Sendhelplease]

Goodrow-Dellandrea-Kunin is a championship worthy fourth line. Hope we can extend Kunin and keep them together long term.

This is great bait...

 

[weastern bias]

This team since October has been worse than last season’s team. If we follow the trend, I wouldn’t expect them to keep the current - I really don’t expect them to get 19 wins at this rate.

They all look like they know they’re going to lose. That’s what I’m really concerned about - there is being competitive in losses, and then there is this constant blowing of leads going into the third. This is the kind of stuff Buffalo did and they’ve never been able to get out of the cellar.

The wins and losses are similar, but the actual competitiveness in game is absolutely better than last year from November on

This year from November on we have scored 127 goals and allowed 179 goals for a differential of -52 in 49 games, or -1.06 goals/game

Last year from November on we scored 171 goals and allowed 288 for a differential of -117 in 73 games, or -1.6 goals/game

The team performance is worlds apart, it's just that we're climbing from SUCH a low spot that this massive improvement has almost no effect on the win column, but we went from never being in games basically ever to being in a ton of games while still losing the vast majority of them, the difference is night and day

 

[Hodge]

Oh boy, I really don't think so... They've had two okay games but championship is stretching it a bit too far. Maybe fringe playoff?

I thought they resembled a solid third line yesterday. Could have had two goals between some of those Dellandrea and Kunin chances. All three can hit, forecheck, PK and fight. If we go into 2026-27 with a bottom six of Graf-Wennberg-Zetterlund Goodrow-Dellandrea-Kunin we'd be in good shape.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Goodrow and Dellandrea wouldn't see a second of ice time on a playoff team. Kunin is a perfectly fine 4th liner, I guess.

 

[Hodge]

Goodrow and Dellandrea wouldn't see a second of ice time on a playoff team. Kunin is a perfectly fine 4th liner, I guess.

Goodrow and Dellandrea were both seeing ice time on conference finalists less than a year ago.