G Zach Fucale (2013, 36th, MTL)

[Kevin Forbes]

Has his play picked up compared to the last time there was talk of him not doing so well? I know some stated that the moose's defense weren't great either.

Just finished talking with him actually (article will be coming soon).
Mooseheads are allowing fewer shots this year than last year (I did the numbers earlier in the month and he was facing on average 7 or 8 shots fewer this year per game). He said it was a bit of an adjustment, because it changed how he focused on the game. He said he's made some changes and feels like he's playing better.

Based on what I've witnessed, I agree. Last night, for example, against Baie-Comeau, I thought he was excellent after an odd bounce led to the first goal. There were a few instances where the Drakkar were really pushing and his play really shone through.

For reference, I think the reason he's seeing fewer shots is equally because of improved defense over last year and also the increased puck possession of the team as a whole. He's definitely being leaned on to bail out the team less often then last year. In 2011-12, he was the team's co-MVP with MacKinnon and that was with good reason, if Fucale wasn't there when Terenzio went down (and if Fucale didn't play practically every game after the injury), the Mooseheads story from last season would have been quite a different tale.

 

[bigdirty]

Just finished talking with him actually (article will be coming soon).
Mooseheads are allowing fewer shots this year than last year (I did the numbers earlier in the month and he was facing on average 7 or 8 shots fewer this year per game). He said it was a bit of an adjustment, because it changed how he focused on the game. He said he's made some changes and feels like he's playing better.

Based on what I've witnessed, I agree. Last night, for example, against Baie-Comeau, I thought he was excellent after an odd bounce led to the first goal. There were a few instances where the Drakkar were really pushing and his play really shone through.

For reference, I think the reason he's seeing fewer shots is equally because of improved defense over last year and also the increased puck possession of the team as a whole. He's definitely being leaned on to bail out the team less often then last year. In 2011-12, he was the team's co-MVP with MacKinnon and that was with good reason, if Fucale wasn't there when Terenzio went down (and if Fucale didn't play practically every game after the injury), the Mooseheads story from last season would have been quite a different tale.

On top of that, last year he was an unproven rookie thrust into the starter's position. This year, he's the most hyped goalie in the league, and every team has surely got a book on him. He's had to make a lot of adjustments and scouts must realize that, as he doesn't seem to be dropping in any rankings.

 

[King Mapes]

See what happens when we need him. Tonight we come out flat and he steals the show. Shots early were 13-2 but we led 2-0, 28 saves on 29 shots. Sure we won 7-1 but he was huge early.

 

[jfb392]

HerdHistory Zach Fucale has tied Dany Dallaire for 2nd all-time in wins, with 50. Congrats Zach on your 50th career regular season win! @Fucale31

http://twitter.com/HerdHistory/status/274687207338557441

marchockey77 Congrats to Zach Fucale on becoming the fastest goaltender in the histroy of the QMJHL to get to 50 victories. #CMGSPORTS

http://twitter.com/marchockey77/status/274705231667924992

 

[George Maharis]

Just did some research on what the goalie records are for Halifax, and it looks like we may see a few more broke by the end of the season... 42 games left for Halifax, Zach will play at least 35 of them.

19 wins will break JS Giguere‘s Career wins record of 68.
18 wins (this season) will break Dany Dallaire‘s Season wins record of 35.
Jason Churchill holds the best GAA in a season record (2.57), Zach is currently at 2.53

 

[3 Minute Minor]

I always get confused when I look at his stats. His Save% is pretty ugly right now at .896% but watching him you'd think it was .910% or higher

Does he just let in a couple bad goals sometimes but doesn't get enough shots against to make the save% look better?

 

[LeafDangler]

I always get confused when I look at his stats. His Save% is pretty ugly right now at .896% but watching him you'd think it was .910% or higher

Does he just let in a couple bad goals sometimes but doesn't get enough shots against to make the save% look better?

For the most part the Mooseeads give up very few shot on goal due to overwhelming puck possession. So the majority of his shots seem to come from PP opportunities and odd man rushes/fast breaks. This accounts for some of that ugly number. That said, until the last couple weeks he hasn't been particularly sharp.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I always get confused when I look at his stats. His Save% is pretty ugly right now at .896% but watching him you'd think it was .910% or higher

Does he just let in a couple bad goals sometimes but doesn't get enough shots against to make the save% look better?

Pretty much. Most of the season he has been getting less then 20 shots a game and would let in a goal or two a game which makes the save percentage look mediocre. He really seems like the kind of goalie that gets better the more work he is getting.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

For the most part the Mooseeads give up very few shot on goal due to overwhelming puck possession. So the majority of his shots seem to come from PP opportunities and odd man rushes/fast breaks. This accounts for some of that ugly number. That said, until the last couple weeks he hasn't been particularly sharp.

Sounds like M.A. Fleury. Similar Q numbers as well. I've never seen Fucale play though so I can't comment on similarity of styles, although most goaltenders these days play the same way more or less.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

I always get confused when I look at his stats. His Save% is pretty ugly right now at .896% but watching him you'd think it was .910% or higher

Does he just let in a couple bad goals sometimes but doesn't get enough shots against to make the save% look better?

He doesn't even really let in "bad" goals. I'm sure if one looked at all of his goals against, a LOT of them are either on powerplays or odd-man rushes that opponents have capitalized on.

 

[Killahpunk]

I've gone to most of the Mooseheads home games this season and i believe Fucale has been at his best the past 2 weeks. He was good early on in the season but he seems more focused now and doesn't let in very many weak goals anymore.

 

[3 Minute Minor]

Sounds like M.A. Fleury. Similar Q numbers as well. I've never seen Fucale play though so I can't comment on similarity of styles, although most goaltenders these days play the same way more or less.

I thought the same thing earlier I just didn't want to compare Fleury & Fucale lol

Their playing style isn't similar at all but when he said "He gets better the more work he's getting." it reminded me of Fleury instantly. He used to face like 50 shots a game in junior haha

Every game I've seen of Fucale he's getting shelled in the net and standing on his head. I've yet to see one of the games where he only faces like 14 quality shots and lets in 2. I'm going to be at a couple Mooseheads games this month, hopefully I'm not too distracted by Drouin/MacKinnon or the other teams players.

 

[Ryan English]

Doing some stats research for Fucale, and the numbers are somewhat surprising in terms of consistency.

Fucale averages 24 shots against per game and has a 2.49 GAA.

Since the new year, he has had 9 out of his 13 starts considered a quality start (over .912 SV% or 3 or less goals against) with the four non-quality starts being PEI (pulled), Quebec, Rimouski and Moncton (pulled).

Overall, 8 out of 43 games haven't been considered quality starts. Some pretty impressive consistency for a guy who faces shots sporadically. (19% of starts non-quality)

Compare that to another solid and 'consistent' QMJHL '95 goaltender in a similar situation - Phillipe Cadorette who faces 23 shots a game and has 10 non quality starts in 41 games (25% non quality starts). This is on a Baie-Comeau team that IMO, plays a tighter system with less defensive breakdowns than the Mooseheads.

Also, Fucale has 18 of 43 starts where he had a SV% under .900, a sign of perhaps an off game - and is 13-5 in those games. Though the Mooseheads league leading offense is helpful, it also tells you Fucale is a guy who can grind out wins and is there when you need him - all one can really ask for from a contending team like the Mooseheads.

Just some food for thought when evaluating his numbers, which aren't all that eye-catching for a potential first round goaltender.

 

[George Maharis]

Doing some stats research for Fucale, and the numbers are somewhat surprising in terms of consistency.

Fucale averages 24 shots against per game and has a 2.49 GAA.

Since the new year, he has had 9 out of his 13 starts considered a quality start (over .912 SV% or 3 or less goals against) with the four non-quality starts being PEI (pulled), Quebec, Rimouski and Moncton (pulled).

Overall, 8 out of 43 games haven't been considered quality starts. Some pretty impressive consistency for a guy who faces shots sporadically. (19% of starts non-quality)

Compare that to another solid and 'consistent' QMJHL '95 goaltender in a similar situation - Phillipe Cadorette who faces 23 shots a game and has 10 non quality starts in 41 games (25% non quality starts). This is on a Baie-Comeau team that IMO, plays a tighter system with less defensive breakdowns than the Mooseheads.

Also, Fucale has 18 of 43 starts where he had a SV% under .900, a sign of perhaps an off game - and is 13-5 in those games. Though the Mooseheads league leading offense is helpful, it also tells you Fucale is a guy who can grind out wins and is there when you need him - all one can really ask for from a contending team like the Mooseheads.

Just some food for thought when evaluating his numbers, which aren't all that eye-catching for a potential first round goaltender.

2nd best in the Q... Marcoux, who is in 1st, has played 12 less games as well.

Lets also keep in mind that 10 of his games he's faced less than 20 shots in the game, letting in a goal or two in that is going to hurt your stats.. but at the same time, in those 10 games they won all of them. Most of the time the reason he lets in 3+ goals a game is because the defence has let him down (tonight and Wednesday), he can only do so much as a goalie.

 

[hawksfan50]

But last night he got light up by Moncton for 4 goals before getting pulled on the 8-5 pasting the Wildcats laid on the Mooseheads...he also did not shine in the Top Prospects Game,letting in 3 in his half game of work...but the real concern is that despite playing for the top team in the Q,hr still has not cracked the. 900+ save %,let alone show elite. 920+ save% numbers...sure hr has great win totals but he plays behind the top team in the Q.....I do not see why scouts rank him #1 goalie for the draft...he doesn't even look like a top 5 goalie to me...he id no Tristan Jarry.

 

[Kevin Forbes]

But last night he got light up by Moncton for 4 goals before getting pulled on the 8-5 pasting the Wildcats laid on the Mooseheads...he also did not shine in the Top Prospects Game,letting in 3 in his half game of work...but the real concern is that despite playing for the top team in the Q,hr still has not cracked the. 900+ save %,let alone show elite. 920+ save% numbers...sure hr has great win totals but he plays behind the top team in the Q.....I do not see why scouts rank him #1 goalie for the draft...he doesn't even look like a top 5 goalie to me...he id no Tristan Jarry.

Perfect reason why scouts make decisions based on viewings of the players, not based on the stat line.

Comparing him directly to Jarry based on statistics alone is like arguing that Nick Petan's 1.73 point-per-game means he should be drafted ahead of Nathan MacKinnon and his 1.68 point-per-game. It's never apples to apples, especially across different leagues.

Also, you're incorrect. Fucale had a .901 save percentage entering into last night's game.

 

[ChiGuySez]

Perfect reason why scouts make decisions based on viewings of the players, not based on the stat line.

Comparing him directly to Jarry based on statistics alone is like arguing that Nick Petan's 1.73 point-per-game means he should be drafted ahead of Nathan MacKinnon and his 1.68 point-per-game. It's never apples to apples, especially across different leagues.

Also, you're incorrect. Fucale had a .901 save percentage entering into last night's game.

Stat line is a baseline. Viewing can also be considered a baseline. Plenty of first round busts based on "expert" opinions and "viewings".

I hope Frucale goes somewhere mid-first round as several "experts" have him slotted. That means someone else is pushed down when the Hawks draft and btw, they need goaltending.

 

[King Mapes]

But last night he got light up by Moncton for 4 goals before getting pulled on the 8-5 pasting the Wildcats laid on the Mooseheads...he also did not shine in the Top Prospects Game,letting in 3 in his half game of work...but the real concern is that despite playing for the top team in the Q,hr still has not cracked the. 900+ save %,let alone show elite. 920+ save% numbers...sure hr has great win totals but he plays behind the top team in the Q.....I do not see why scouts rank him #1 goalie for the draft...he doesn't even look like a top 5 goalie to me...he id no Tristan Jarry.

When you only face 17-18 shots a game, its tough to have a high save %. This team isn't great defensively, do you watch games? Hell, look at the odd man rushes last night. He was absolutely great in that prospects game in the first, amazing show but gave up a couple in the second to throw his stats off. Thing is, he seems so strong mentally and last year, along with Nate, were our best players last year at 16.

This is why scouts watch the games and not stat lines..

 

[Kevin Forbes]

Stat line is a baseline. Viewing can also be considered a baseline. Plenty of first round busts based on "expert" opinions and "viewings".

I hope Frucale goes somewhere mid-first round as several "experts" have him slotted. That means someone else is pushed down when the Hawks draft and btw, they need goaltending.

I will give credit to some of the work being done with advanced statistics and how that can be used to predict and understand success.

But that's not being done here. The post I quoted as simply comparing Fucale's standard stat line with some generic line in the sand that the poster made up of what defines "elite" goaltending. It's done without context and without consideration for the reality of the situation. It is, in a word, stupid.

That's my issue here. A stat line isn't a baseline, because on it's own, it's almost completely worthless for comparison. In order to get an accurate view of the player and his potential, you either need to bring in a helluva lot more information or you need to actually watch the player play.

To say something like Fucale should not be considered one of the top goaltenders of his age group because his save percentage is below .900 is completely idiotic.

 

[bigdirty]

Stat line is a baseline. Viewing can also be considered a baseline. Plenty of first round busts based on "expert" opinions and "viewings".

I hope Frucale goes somewhere mid-first round as several "experts" have him slotted. That means someone else is pushed down when the Hawks draft and btw, they need goaltending.

By "experts" do you mean "people who watch him play"?

If Fucale was playing for Blaineville-Boisbriand, his numbers would be incredible. And then everyone who doesn't watch him play could accept that he deserves the hype he gets.

 

[ChiGuySez]

There doesnt appear to be many if any advanced statistics for goalies. .920 save percentage is an arbitrary number. Tristan Jarry is in a different league with a .938 sv%. So if save percentage is worthless, then someone with a .500 save percentage may be actually better. Of course Im being facetious b/c they wouldnt be in goal. It does in fact mean something. Agreed by itself, no but there are few metrics for goalies. To Fucales credit, he is statistically second in the Q in GAA where the Q is having an extremely strong year for scoring so goalies are taking at hit across the board. Difficult to compare different leagues.

As far as viewing goes, Im sure the experts had ample viewing of previous first round goalie picks. Lets start from 2006. Six years is adequate time for a goalie prospect to develop. From 2006 going backwards to say 1999, the attrit of first round goalie picks is staggering. Of course everyone knows picking a goalie in the first round is probably the most dicey decision a team can make. Did the scouts not have adequate viewing or perhaps scouting was lacking.

Fucale did nothing to enhance his position by the HH Top Prospects game. Doesnt mean he wont go in the first round or be successful. I hope he does. Canada needs to produce goalies. By the same token, Id much rather roll the dice with Jarry in later rounds.

 

[George Maharis]

There doesnt appear to be many if any advanced statistics for goalies. .920 save percentage is an arbitrary number. Tristan Jarry is in a different league with a .938 sv%. So if save percentage is worthless, then someone with a .500 save percentage may be actually better. Of course Im being facetious b/c they wouldnt be in goal. It does in fact mean something. Agreed by itself, no but there are few metrics for goalies. To Fucales credit, he is statistically second in the Q in GAA where the Q is having an extremely strong year for scoring so goalies are taking at hit across the board. Difficult to compare different leagues.

As far as viewing goes, Im sure the experts had ample viewing of previous first round goalie picks. Lets start from 2006. Six years is adequate time for a goalie prospect to develop. From 2006 going backwards to say 1999, the attrit of first round goalie picks is staggering. Of course everyone knows picking a goalie in the first round is probably the most dicey decision a team can make. Did the scouts not have adequate viewing or perhaps scouting was lacking.

Fucale did nothing to enhance his position by the HH Top Prospects game. Doesnt mean he wont go in the first round or be successful. I hope he does. Canada needs to produce goalies. By the same token, Id much rather roll the dice with Jarry in later rounds.

When in doubt, draft both!

 

[Kevin Forbes]

There doesnt appear to be many if any advanced statistics for goalies. .920 save percentage is an arbitrary number. Tristan Jarry is in a different league with a .938 sv%. So if save percentage is worthless, then someone with a .500 save percentage may be actually better. Of course Im being facetious b/c they wouldnt be in goal. It does in fact mean something. Agreed by itself, no but there are few metrics for goalies. To Fucales credit, he is statistically second in the Q in GAA where the Q is having an extremely strong year for scoring so goalies are taking at hit across the board. Difficult to compare different leagues.

As far as viewing goes, Im sure the experts had ample viewing of previous first round goalie picks. Lets start from 2006. Six years is adequate time for a goalie prospect to develop. From 2006 going backwards to say 1999, the attrit of first round goalie picks is staggering. Of course everyone knows picking a goalie in the first round is probably the most dicey decision a team can make. Did the scouts not have adequate viewing or perhaps scouting was lacking.

Fucale did nothing to enhance his position by the HH Top Prospects game. Doesnt mean he wont go in the first round or be successful. I hope he does. Canada needs to produce goalies. By the same token, Id much rather roll the dice with Jarry in later rounds.

If you want to have the statistical conversation regarding Jarry, go ahead. The way to do it is to take each goaltender and figure out their comparative value in their respective leagues (so figuring out what the average is for goaltending in the league and then how far above average each one is).

And then you'll need to single out the effect of the goaltender separate from overall team defense. So that's identifying how strong a team is defensively in comparison to the average of the league and then separately judging how the team plays in front of one goalie compared to another.

Also in Jarry's case where he filling a backup (or perhaps a tandem role), you'll need to consider the quality of the opposing teams he faces. I don't know anything about him or how Edmonton decides what games he plays in, but in the 16 games that Edmonton has played against the other top 5 teams in the WHL (Calgary, Prince Albert, Kelowna, Kamloops, Victoria), Jarry has played in 4 (so 25% of them). In the 13 games that Edmonton has played against the bottom 5 teams in the WHL (Moose Jaw, Regina, Brandon, Vancouver, Prince George), Jarry has played in 8 of them (so 61%). How do we put his statistics in proper context if he normally plays the league's weakest teams?

Finally, your point about busts and scouting is irrelevant. What we're discussing is the best way to assess players. That continues to be conventional scouting and viewing. That doesn't mean it is foolproof (and I don't think anyone has claimed that it is), but despite the imperfections, it is still the best way. Of course, if you'd like to dispute this by doing some math about past drafts to show that drafting based on statlines alone would yield better results, I think that would be an interesting read.
And when you say that his play in the Top Prospects Game did nothing to help him, in who's eyes are you referring to? Is it simply because he was the only goaltender on the ice to give up goals?

 

[Patmac40]

Kind of funny how he kind of flies under the radar right now with Drouin tearing it up and Mackinnon obviously getting lots of press. Fucale was named the Vaughn CHL Goaltender of the Week: Link

 

[George Maharis]

Kind of funny how he kind of flies under the radar right now with Drouin tearing it up and Mackinnon obviously getting lots of press. Fucale was named the Vaughn CHL Goaltender of the Week: Link

And not just that, he broke Giguere's all-time wins record... in, I think, 49 less games!! Sure it's been mentioned, but that is not a minor note!! I had my congratulatory tweet typed and ready while there was still 15 minutes left.