Confirmed with Link: (G) J. Markstrom (30% retention) traded to NJ for (D) Kevin Bahl, 2025 1st rd pick (Top 10 protected)

[Brodeur]

no, I'm telling you thats how pick value works. It has nothing to do with any one team.

From all reports, teams typically value a pick a year in the future equivalent to a round worse in the current year.

I think that's moreso for the NFL. Otherwise we'd see more Bobby Beathard type deals in the NHL with teams trading next year's 1st for a 2nd this year. Occasionally we'll see NHL teams swap picks for future ones at the draft.

Off the top of my head, LA traded a 2010 3rd rounder (#79) to Toronto for a 2012 3rd rounder. My own speculation, but LA had Radko Gudas at their 2009 summer camp as an undrafted invite and really liked him. But Gudas went #70 and then LA moved the pick. LA also had a bunch of draft picks in 2008+2009 so I think they wanted to spread out the potential ELCs.

And then the next year LA pivoted and traded the 2012 Toronto 3rd (plus a 2011 6th) to Nashville for pick #81 to take Nick Shore.

In order to let Marty draft his kid in 2013, we dealt a 2015 7th to LA for a 2013 7th. Not unusual to see a 7th this year for a 7th next year type of trade at the end of the draft.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

The chart boys and analytics nerds on Twitter love this more. That's enough for me. I'm sold.

for as bad as Markstrom was in the 2nd half of the year, he still finished 9th in the league overall in goals saved above expected.

NHL Goalie Statistics

NHL Goalie Analytics, Expected Goals, Expected Rebounds

moneypuck.com

 

[devilsblood]

Fitz. He's definitely a horn dog.

I did the math, this is funny.

 

[Blackjack]

for as bad as Markstrom was in the 2nd half of the year, he still finished 9th in the league overall in goals saved above expected.

NHL Goalie Statistics

NHL Goalie Analytics, Expected Goals, Expected Rebounds

moneypuck.com

I wonder if goalies tend to get better or worse as they get into their mid '30s

 

[MartyOwns]

terrible deal, but it could’ve been worse. let this be a lesson that when you don’t draft a goalie with elite potential when you have the chance, you pay for it later. oof

 

[TheUnseenHand]

It still really hurts to give up a first round pick for an aging, mediocre goalie.

 

[Darkauron]

Not the biggest fan of the trade but whatever. As long as he doesnt get injured and actually plays

 

[JimEIV]

Fitz has already said he’s looking to add a top six forward, bottom six forward, top four defender, and a bottom pairing defender this off-season. Well not him exactly but we know how much he loves funneling news through the insiders.

I think he knows this and targets a guy like Dillon in free agency or via trade. I also expect a Smith replacement as a #7 that can kill penalties.

I suppose if you get a good enough LHD that can kill 2+ minutes a night on average a long with Marino... then you can limit your 2nd groups time somewhat?

 

[Lindys Lazy Eye]

I legit do not get why people are shocked by this.



This post just doesn't make you seem remotely reasonable.

We traded a first round pick for another 'IF'

Also, in 16 games Kahkonen had numbers on par, if not slightly better than Markstrom. Small sample size? Sure. Would I much rather have just re-signed Kaapo than give up assets for a goal tender significantly older, whose position ages the worst out of any other one in hockey?

It's amazing no one can't see this for anything other than poor asset management

'But a 2025 first is really a second!'

Get the hell out of here.

 

[Forge]

for as bad as Markstrom was in the 2nd half of the year, he still finished 9th in the league overall in goals saved above expected.

NHL Goalie Statistics

NHL Goalie Analytics, Expected Goals, Expected Rebounds

moneypuck.com

7th for guys that I would consider "true" starters. 2 of the guys ahead of him were Rittich and Stolarz who both played sub 30 games

 

[Devils731]

Things are unpredictable, that's why you try to win trades on value rather than whatever this garbage is.

Yes, you value future draft picks by where you think they are likely to end up.

Otherwise everyone would value their future firsts at insane values because they could be 1st overall.

 

[McDuffz88]

> if Blackwood doesn't turn to dogshit we can be a contender

> if Vitek doesn't turn to dogshit we can be a contender

> If Markstrom...

Where's that meme with the grim reaper knocking on the doors? Perfect for this.

C'mon man are you really putting Markstrom in the same sentence as those 2? Blackwood had one stretch of a good season once & for some reason our entire fanbase was fooled into thinking he was good. A select few posters knew he was dog crap but for some reason Blackwood had a strange cult behind him on this board giving him every excuse in the world. Vitek was NEVER a proven starter, he was ALWAYS a backup. You're comparing apples to oranges. Markstrom is a proven starter while these other 2 aren't. Anyone praying that Blackwood/Vitek would randomly become a great starter out of the wood work was smoking that good stuff. Could it of happened? Sure but we shouldn't of put our seasons on the hopes that backups would magically turn into starters.

 

[Guadana]

He's getting a lot more than $6.5M on the open market.

Holtz is obviously and should be on the trade block. Brass hates him and he isn't going to get a legit shot. Should convert him into an asset that can help the club now.

Grzelcyk is a big no. He was horrible last season and is completely the opposite type of defenseman they need.

Okay, I didnt saw him a lot this season. I would prefer to deal Holtz over 10OA.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Markstrom + Allen last year combined for 11.8 goals saved above expected

Vanacek, Schmid, and Daws last year combined for -16.8 goals saved above expected

thats a difference of 28.6 goals over a full season. thats nearly 0.35 goals per game...

 

[Forge]

We traded a first round pick for another 'IF'

Also, in 16 games Kahkonen had numbers on par, if not slightly better than Markstrom. Small sample size? Sure. Would I much rather have just re-signed Kaapo than give up assets for a goal tender significantly older, whose position ages the worst out of any other one in hockey?

It's amazing no one can't see this for anything other than poor asset management

'But a 2025 first is really a second!'

Get the hell out of here.

Every trade is based on an "if", my guy.

You're trading for performance you haven't gotten yet

 

[Mgd31]

What is their basic reasoning?

If only I could understand their charts. But seriously it seems like he has a very good high danger save percentage and GSA over the last few years.

 

[Blackjack]

Yes, you value future draft picks by where you think they are likely to end up.

Otherwise everyone would value their future firsts at insane values because they could be 1st overall.

They could have waited for the price to come down on Markstrom. Calgary had no use for him, and he was disgruntled with ALL of the leverage in terms of where he would go.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

We traded a first round pick for another 'IF'

Also, in 16 games Kahkonen had numbers on par, if not slightly better than Markstrom. Small sample size? Sure. Would I much rather have just re-signed Kaapo than give up assets for a goal tender significantly older, whose position ages the worst out of any other one in hockey?

It's amazing no one can't see this for anything other than poor asset management

'But a 2025 first is really a second!'

Get the hell out of here.

so a 1st round pick over 12 months from now isn't an "IF"? That guy wouldn't play in the NHL until probably 2027 at the earliest.

 

[minibrodeur]

With Bahl gone we will add 2 D this off-season. I can't see Fitz taking the risk that injuries force us to play guys like Hatakka or Vilen in situations they can't handle. I really want Dillon and am just gonna keep speaking it into existence for good luck.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

It still really hurts to give up a first round pick for an aging, mediocre goalie.

I agree, but if this is what Markstrom cost, think what Saros or Ullmark were gonna cost?

I don't mind going into next season with Markstrom as the #1, but I'd feel a lot better if Allen wasn't the #2.

 

[NJDevs26]

And not for nothing but when your franchise legend at that position and a member of your front office publicly rates Markstrom as a top five goalie, you've already given up a lot of your limited leverage lol

People have been complaining we needed an average goalie for years though, we get an average goalie...BUT WHY HIM? AND AT THAT COST?!

 

[Devils731]

They could have waited for the price to come down on Markstrom. Calgary had no use for him, and he was disgruntled with ALL of the leverage in terms of where he would go.

Calgary didn’t get a ton, or maybe any, excess value in this deal.

The price could have gone lower but I don’t think by much. The 2 year of salary retention is worth almost as much as Markstrom, probably.

 

[Zippy316]

I suppose if you get a good enough LHD that can kill 2+ minutes a night on average a long with Marino... then you can limit your 2nd groups time somewhat?

I think that’s the plan.

There was a report somewhere this summer that Dillon was high on the Devils list. He’s the exact target this team needs. I read that report about a top four defender and bottom pairing defender as defensive guys to supplement Marino and Luke/Nemec.

I think you could get by with Siegenthaler, Dillon (or similar), and Marino being your main PK options. Nemec will likely be on the second rotation while Luke/Hamilton get PP minutes.

 

[JimEIV]

Every trade is based on an "if", my guy.

You're trading for performance you haven't gotten yet

It's a bigger "if" when player turns 35 years old in the upcoming season.

Is there any doubt whatsoever that Bahl will be significantly more valuable in 2 years than Markstrom, not to mention the 1st rounder? So, from my perspective this is a "win now " move for team that is nowhere near"win now"

 

[CalamityX23]

Bad trade imo

We lost size at defense and our first in 2025?

Unbelievable, Markstrom ain't about that hype! Jfc