G Drew Commesso (2020, 46th, CHI)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Commesso is the best American goalie for the 2020 draft. His stats aren't good because he plays for a bad team, but he's one of the best players on his team. He's not an elite level goalie prospect, but he could be a 2nd-3rd rounder in 2020 with continued development.

Drew Commesso at eliteprospects.com

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[Whalers Fan]

I have been impressed with Commesso this season. As you said, he doesn't have a great team in front of him so his stats are not impressive. However, his positioning, rebound control and puck handling are all quite good. He has a calm presence in net, too. I do not think he's as good of a prospect as Spencer Knight with the U18 NTDP team, but I could see him developing enough to go in the late 2nd or 3rd round a year from now.

 

[OldScool]

You guys both touched on an important factor when comparing goalies - stats dont matter (for the most part). Comparing goalies is so difficult based on numerous factors - play on a defensive team that packs it in down low and goalies have high save % and low GAA and look unreal on paper but it doesnt tell the entire story. Askarov plays on a loaded defensive minded Russia teams and plays in a low scoring league where every goalie puts up a .930. Put Knight on the U17s and it would be interesting to see what his stats would look like. Honestly, I think it would be a good idea for USA Hockey to put Knight down with the U17s to prep for the U18 Worlds to see more action and play in tight games. The U18s are so good up front they put 10 goals a night, they have puck possession 90% of the game and then the goalies see 10-15 shots a game playing in blowout wins - that to me isnt ideal development situation for goalies. The last time the U18s were in a competitive event their goalies struggled probably due to lack of playing in tight games and seeing quality shots under pressure.

Regarding Commesso - I view him as the #1 top NA goalie in the 2020 draft. I think he could give Askarov a run for the top goalie taken...although it would be tough since Askarov has a lot of hype and plays in a very friendly goalie stat league and plays for Russia who play such a solid defensive system. ..Commesso has good size, excellent lateral movement, positionally sound, fantastic rebound control, great puckhandler, confident and quiet in net....very sound, solid and consistent. Doesnt play sprawling because he is under control and in correct position. The 2020 draft is loaded for forwards/centers (Lafreniere, Byfield, Raymond, Gunler, Holtz) but lacks goalies so I could see a team grabbing the high end elite goalies earlier than anticipated. Late first or early second would be possible if he continues development track and has a great season but more likely in the 2nd-3rd range as you guys mentioned.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Cam Rowe on the 18’s is a 2nd/3rd rounder for 2019 with bad stats. I don’t know if I’ve seen him put up a really good stat line in any game I’ve seen him play, but I can’t remember many times I didn’t think he played well. He has it worse than Knight in this regard, although Knight is definitely better.

 

[OldScool]

Cam Rowe on the 18’s is a 2nd/3rd rounder for 2019 with bad stats. I don’t know if I’ve seen him put up a really good stat line in any game I’ve seen him play, but I can’t remember many times I didn’t think he played well. He has it worse than Knight in this regard, although Knight is definitely better.

Totally agree - cant be easy playing net for the U18s thats for sure. Tough to get into the flow and then you are sitting watching most of the game waiting for some shots.

 

[Whalers Fan]

Totally agree - cant be easy playing net for the U18s thats for sure. Tough to get into the flow and then you are sitting watching most of the game waiting for some shots.

Yes, the past few U18 games Knight has let in some weak goals, and it mostly appears to be a concentration issue. The team in front of him has been so dominant lately versus their USHL opponents that it's probably difficult for him to stay mentally focused.

 

[OldScool]

Yes, the past few U18 games Knight has let in some weak goals, and it mostly appears to be a concentration issue. The team in front of him has been so dominant lately versus their USHL opponents that it's probably difficult for him to stay mentally focused.

Exactly. I honestly think they have Knight play with the U17s to prep for the Under 18 Worlds....more shots...closer games...the U18s dont need a goalie for their USHL games lol.

To follow up my theory I had my NHL statistical guru buddy run the USNDT goalie trend save % stats over this season and interestingly enough Commesso was the only goalie to have a positive trendline this season out of the 4 goalies - in laymen terms as he put it - has shown most improvement over season and is getting better. Knight and Rowe both have negative trendlines as season progressed and play has declined over season.

Maybe nothing but its interesting and goes along with my eye test/Whalers Fans comments as well as that its tough to play on a loaded team....any stats that support my theory I wholeheartedly endorse lol.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Commesso has a .919 SV% this season in 16 games. The 18's have a good defense, but Commesso is a very good goalie. I think he's probably going to be a 2nd rounder, potentially early third round.

 

[OldScool]

Should be 2nd goalie off the board IMO.

I also really like Nick Maliks game and potential long term.

 

[OldScool]

Found this interesting:

Spencer Knight (last season with U18NTDP):
USHL - 2.21 GAA and .903
Total - 2.36 GAA and .913
2 shutouts in 39 games

Drew Commesso (this season with U18NTDP):
USHL - 1.69 GAA and .928
Total - 2.21 GAA and .919
3 Shutouts in 20 games

USA putting out some quality goalies as of late.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He's been excellent this season. 924 SV%. I don't know if he has first round talent because a goalie has to have elite talent to pick them in the first round, but I think this guy has to be the second goalie off the board, and I'd find it hard at this point to see him dropping out of the second round on my list.

 

[OldScool]

Should be late 1st in my opinion but will probably go 2nd but doesn’t get the hype that Askarov or knight did. He had better stats than Knight did and is playing on a much lesser talented team. Askarov hype was laughable but the world juniors brought that back down to earth.

props to Pavel as well as he had this kid properly ranked from the start.

 

[tealhockey]

He's been excellent this season. 924 SV%. I don't know if he has first round talent because a goalie has to have elite talent to pick them in the first round, but I think this guy has to be the second goalie off the board, and I'd find it hard at this point to see him dropping out of the second round on my list.

He has been great and to be fair he has been a legit prospect for a long time, goalies are always difficult and the NTDP has the contrast between year 1 and year 2 teams. He comes with a solid pedigree that good NHL scouting staffs will likely be very aware of

 

[OldScool]

Fair points. Just doesn’t seem like he gets they hype that Askarov or Knight get....he probably should.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Should be late 1st in my opinion but will probably go 2nd but doesn’t get the hype that Askarov or knight did. He had better stats than Knight did and is playing on a much lesser talented team. Askarov hype was laughable but the world juniors brought that back down to earth.

props to Pavel as well as he had this kid properly ranked from the start.

I think the current U18 team plays a different style to last year's U18 team. Last year's team played a complete pond hockey style. They left Knight to stop a lot of breakaways, which is why his SV% is a little lower than it could've been. When you face so many high danger shots, you are going to have your SV% dip. This year's team is a lot better defensively, despite not being as talented. It's still junior hockey, so there's always still a pond hockey element to it, but they play better defense than most teams in the USHL. Appert has done a lot better of a job with this team than he has in the past.

I don't think Commesso is anywhere near as good as Knight was. Knight was maybe the best American goalie prospect ever. There have been some really good prospects to come through the NTDP between Knight, Gibson, Oettinger, Demko. Two of those guys were first rounders, two were early 2nd rounders. I think all were better prospects than Commesso. Commesso is still a pretty good prospect, but we are talking about a 6'2 goalie who doesn't have elite level athleticism. I don't find that he has any major holes in his game. He reminds me of Lukas Dostal, who reminded me of Carter Hart. Hart was a mid-second round pick, and I think Dostal should've been a mid-second. I think thats around where Commesso should go.

 

[OldScool]

You are probably right about being picked in the 2nd and the carter hart comparison is a good one. I tend to differ on the athleticism comment a bit as some say Askarov has elite athleticism but I see it as he is off his angles so much that he has to sprawl around and recover this making him look athletic. I see knight as athletic and a bit more in control than Askarov. I rate knight a lot higher prospect than Askarov. Commesso plays a lot more in control than Askarov or even knight thus his style is seen as less athletic. Commesso is calm and controlled while askarov is sprawling and unorthodox. Reminds me Jon quick style vs a lundquist style. Is quick more athletic than lundquist? Being 6’2 vs 6’3 is nominal difference. Look at goaltending stats and that height is probably ideal even though the trend is for bigger goalies the 6’2-6’3 seems to be the sweet spot.

 

[Rogie21]

From The Draft Analyst following 5 Nations:
G Drew Commesso (Ranked No. 156) – If you were going to base the NHL upside of a draft-eligible prospect off of just one tournament or small stretch of games, then watching Commesso play at the Five Nations would lead you to believe he’s a lock for the first or second round. Much like 2019 first-round pick Spencer Knight, Commesso plays like he has ice water in his veins. You rarely see him out of position or make a movement that isn’t fluid and doctrinally sound. Most followers of this year’s NTDP 18’s will tell you that this group has played a ton of close games against the best competition in three circuits – the USHL, the NCAA, and international tournaments, and Commesso has pooled together several stellar performances in each of them. One thing is certain – the future Boston University Terrier significantly outplayed Yaroslav Askarov in this tournament, which was something Knight couldn’t do last February. I think I’ve seen enough of Commesso the last two months to give him a significant boost in my next rankings.

 

[OldScool]

I am comfortable putting Commesso ahead of Askarov to be honest at this point. I read all the hype on Askarov but there are massive holes in his game IMO (technique, jittery, glove hand, etc). Askarov hasnt played well in the VHL despite what many writers repeat (ranking 44th in GAA and save% isnt tearing it up). Askarov also struggled mightily at WJ and looked pedestrian at best at the Five Nations and clearly got outplayed by Commesso in the Russia game. Hype can only take you so far and Askarov hasnt performed well enough to maintain that lofty ranking. Meanwhile, Commesso is having a stellar season on a below average NTDP team bettering Knights stats who played on a much better team.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

One thing I like especially about Commesso is how well he reads the play. He’s square to shots and ready to save it before players even start their shooting motion. Most goalies don’t read plays quick enough to do this, and are instead scrambling around at all times.

 

[grentthealien]

Aside from Askarov and Commesso what other Goalies prospects might have starter potential in this year’s draft?

 

[OldScool]

I really like Blomqvist but his size may cause him to slip. Very professional like style and moves extremely well.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Aside from Askarov and Commesso what other Goalies prospects might have starter potential in this year’s draft?

Skotnikov and Bednar are two of my favorites.

 

[DrSense]

The U18 team playing in the USHL is good hockey, and they don't dominate. They often give up 5 or 6 goals in a game. There are many 20 year olds in that league, and obviously the U18 are often 3 years younger, and physically the U18 team is always small compared to USHL teams. Plenty skilled enough to compete, but they get pushed around a bit. As you can see historically, the goalies get seriously challenged in that league. Knight got a lot more action against USHL competition than he did at Boston College. And as you can see from Commesso's fellow goalies on the squad, their save percentage and GAA are all below .870 and their GAA is in the 3-5 range. Commesso being at .917 and 2.01 on the same team really stands out. His stats were decent on that team last year too. He's basically impressed at every level.

 

[themelkman]

So tell me, is he worth a second round pick? Its obvious the sharks could use a high quality goalie prospect, but goalies are historically not worth drafting because they are a crapshoot.

 

[Killerjas]

I have him ranked the 3rd best goalie available. Seeing last year's draft, he could be a late 2nd to 3rd round pick.