GDT: Free Agent Frenzy: The Horror, the Horror!!!

[tarheelhockey]

Yeah, but how many years in a row have we said this circa July 1st? It gets frustrating.

It's frustrating, but the reality is the free agent frenzy is mostly just a bunch of mistakes.

Here are the big-money contracts (more than $4M per) which went to forwards in UFA the past few years:

2015
Ryan O'Reilly - BUF - 7yr/52.5M
Michael Frolik - CGY - 5yr/21.5M


2014
Paul Stastny - STL - 4yr/28M
Dave Bolland - FLA - 5yr/27.5M
Mike Cammalleri - NJD - 5yr/25M
Matt Moulson - BUF - 5yr/25M
Mikhail Grabovski - NYI - 4yr/20M
Benoit Pouliot - EDM - 5yr/20M
Thomas Vanek - MIN - 3yr/19.5M
Jarome Iginla - COL - 3yr/16M
Nikolai Kulemin - NYI - 4yr/16.8M
Jussi Jokinen - FLA - 4yr/16M
Brian Gionta - BUF - 3yr/12.75M
Ales Hemsky - DAL - 3yr/12M


2013
Nathan Horton - CBJ - 7yr/37.1M
David Clarkson - TOR - 7yr/36.8M
Valtteri Filppula - TB - 5yr/25M
Stephen Weiss - DET - 5yr/24.5M
Ryane Clowe - NJ - 5yr/24.3M
Vincent Lecavalier - PHI - 5yr/22.5M
Mike Ribeiro - ARI - 4yr/22M
Jaromir Jagr - NJ - 1yr/4M


2012
Zach Parise - MIN - 13yr/98M
Jiri Hudler - CGY - 4yr/16M
PA Parenteau - COL - 4yr/16M
Olli Jokinen - WPG - 2yr/9M
Ray Whitney - DAL - 2yr/9M
Alexander Semin - CAR - 1yr/7M
Jaromir Jagr - DAL - 1yr/4.6M


Honestly, out of that entire list, how many times do you see something that screams, "man, I wish we had been in on that"?* For the most part it's a list of guys whose careers declined from that point forward. The nature of the free agency system is that guys build up a bunch of value leading into their UFA status, the deadline boosts them up with artificial value, and the laws of supply and demand kick in to create overpayment situations. It's not a smart way to do business, and therefore a smart GM will be inactive on deadline day unless a deal is absolutely right.

*Jagr signings don't count.

 

[geehaad]

What does it matter the reason why? He can't spend more money...it's not like he's choosing to be a penny pincher.

 

[Ole Gil]

You're ignoring Aho, Saarela, TT, PDG, Tolchinsky, Fleury, any number of other players who could become significant parts of the team who will need contracts down the road. RF is looking at this long-term and committing to his homegrown players and filling in with cheap FAs. I have no problem with that.

Again, KC Royals. It's not that they "can't" add a high-end free agent. They've simply chosen not to, and given some of the insane deals given out today, it's a wise move to hold off. IMO.

I'm ignoring Tolchinsky! We can't compete for the next 2 years because Tolchinsky might become more than an okay AHL player? Aho isn't up for his RFA deal until 19-20. Can't make any big moves because 3 years from now, they might have to pay him 4 million dollars.

Can't trade for RNH now either. He's making 6mx5, so you do that, then how will we deal with Saarela's contract in 19-20!

I get how you're trying to paint this, but the numbers don't add up. At best, they have hypothetical medium sized contracts they may have to deal out to RFA's IF they even develop into something worthwhile.

But if they ever want to compete, they'll have to add a big ticket player or two up front, because I'm guessing the over/under on any forward in the Canes system ever hitting 60 points in a season is .5.

 

[bleedgreen]

Well the problem is none of the big ticket names are worth signing. I wouldn't add any of those contracts to us other than maybe okposo.

Draft and trade is the only way we're getting offensive studs.

 

[Novacane]

Getting a true top line talent this offseason went out the window when Hall went to NJ

 

[Brock Anton]

Well the problem is none of the big ticket names are worth signing. I wouldn't add any of those contracts to us other than maybe okposo.

Draft and trade is the only way we're getting offensive studs.

Yep. Okposo is the only big contract given out that I wouldn't have been that upset with if we had done it. Lucic, Backes, Ladd, Eriksson and Nielsen? Those are all god awful contracts.

 

[Ole Gil]

It's frustrating, but the reality is the free agent frenzy is mostly just a bunch of mistakes.

To be clear, it's not just about FA day. It's the offseason. They had cap space and picks and prospects. And (thus far) nothing has been done to feign competitiveness in 16-17 barring some very unexpected developments.

I understand saying it can't be done. But it's GMRF's job to find a way.

We did afterall expect Paul Maurice to be making the playoffs all those years with trash teams.

 

[Buenos Necas]

I think it's just part of a larger sentiment where it's frustrating that we haven't been able to acquire the true top line talent that we need, namely a first line center. We're not bad enough to be in a position to draft the top guys, and as tarheel showed that probably won't come during July 1, so we'll have to acquire that player through a trade.

RF has done very well so far, hired a great coach, revamped the scouting department, cleared out the bad contracts, and restocked the prospect pool. But at some point we have to leverage that efficiency and the assets we've accumulated into top talent that'll allow us to make the jump to being a real contender. I'm not sure who that player might be, but hopefully RF can find a solution soon.

 

[Caniac125330]

If you want to be a fan of a team that spends to the salary cap, go be a Rangers or Red Wings fan. There's no point in griping about it, everybody knows the score.

RF isn't going to commit 5-6 years to some UFAs who are going to prevent extensions for Hanifin/Slavin/Aho/Rask and the like in the future. Homegrown talent is the priority. Look at what the KC Royals have done in a relatively short timeframe. That should absolutely be the model for any small-market team.

Ayyyyye. Was not expecting to see a reference to my baseball team in this thread

 

[tarheelhockey]

To be clear, it's not just about FA day. It's the offseason. They had cap space and picks and prospects. And (thus far) nothing has been done to feign competitiveness in 16-17 barring some very unexpected developments.

I understand saying it can't be done. But it's GMRF's job to find a way.

We did afterall expect Paul Maurice to be making the playoffs all those years with trash teams.

I get what you're saying. We're not going to compete with a cap-floor team, and there's no particular roadmap to us being more than a cap-floor team for the foreseeable future.

What I *think* is happening is that Francis is waiting in the weeds for something to present itself. I'd be shocked if the rumors of us being in on the Hall deal aren't true, because that's the sort of situation we need to play out in our favor. Maybe he missed on that one, but I think that kind of thing is the gameplan.

If not, then I agree with you wholeheartedly.

 

[Roboturner913]

But if they ever want to compete, they'll have to add a big ticket player or two up front, because I'm guessing the over/under on any forward in the Canes system ever hitting 60 points in a season is .5.

But who? Ladd is worth $5 million a year, but 7 years of that is crazy. Same for Backes, and Lucic, and Eriksson, and Okposo, and even Nielson. We should not commit to 6-7 years of high dollar player who'll be 37 when the contract ends.

Your example of trading for RNH at $6m a year actually makes sense though, he's only 23 and will only be 28 or so at the end of the deal. Now, I have no doubt if Francis were presented that option he would be all over it as long as he didn't have to sell the farm on it.

I'd rather keep signing the Stempniaks of the world to fill in the blanks and building the prospect pool, so that when the chance does come to acquire a true high-end player, we have the assets to do it through trade rather than pursuing these huge UFA deals that teams usually come to regret within 3-4 years.

It should be noted that opportunity could very well happen this offseason, we just don't know yet.

 

[bleedgreen]

I like stempniak but would've really liked Purcell. Still we got a decent player that was on the radar.

 

[DaveG]

Getting a true top line talent this offseason went out the window when Hall went to NJ

And let's face it, that happened one year too soon for us with our situation right now. We have some rising young stars on defense but Faulk's the only one that's a proven star right now or even proven to the level of Larsson, as hit and miss as he is, was at when the trade was made. Even as well as Slavin played, he's not on that level yet even if I have full confidence that he'll not just get there as soon as this year but surpass it. We're not getting Hall for him just yet, probably not RNH either. And I certainly wouldn't give up a top young defensive talent of that level for Eberle.

Our depth is on the left side, and we could and should try to cash in on that soon... but the time for that isn't now IMHO.

 

[Brock Anton]

I wasn't big on Boedker, but I'd have been interested in him at 4 x $4M. That's a fairly good deal.

 

[DaveG]

I wasn't big on Boedker, but I'd have been interested in him at 4 x $4M. That's a fairly good deal.

Doubt he would have signed with us for that. Hell doubt he would have signed for 4 x 5 honestly, Sharks offer an immediate chance to win.

 

[Brock Anton]

Riley Nash to Boston (2 yrs, $900k). Poor soul.

 

[geehaad]

I utterly cannot fathom how expectations for today were shattered by RF. The world some of you live in is a alien one to me.

Beside the Wiz thing and still needing a replacement for him, this is exactly what I saw coming. To expect differently is really your own fault.

 

[NotOpie]

 

[Unsustainable]

I think RF will be making trade moves over this next month or 2. I think he sees the UFAs as bad investments.

 

[Vagrant]

I utterly cannot fathom how expectations for today were shattered by RF. The world some of you live in is a alien one to me.

Beside the Wiz thing and still needing a replacement for him, this is exactly what I saw coming. To expect differently is really your own fault.

It's just the frustration of perpetually being on the sidelines while teams desperately try to make themselves better. Even in the instance where teams give out bad contracts, it was done in good faith. Trying to put your team in the best possible position to win. It doesn't seem like that has been a priority here so much as barely hitting the floor and trying to scrape by. Our biggest moves of the offseason were anticipated to be moves where we took cap space (Bickell for Teravainen, Datsyuk offers) It would be nice, for once, to be at the center of a major play to ignite this franchise.

Sometimes even if you KNOW what's going to happen, it's disappointing to see it repeated over and over. Each July 1st brings hope, and every year that hope is dashed. We just sit back and pick the carcasses after the big dogs eat.

I would have no problem with this strategy provided we actually made it work in a different way, but the ....seven or eight year playoff drought stands as evidence that our approach may not be 100% self-sufficient.

And I know, I know. Francis has a plan. Francis has a plan. That doesn't make days like today any less tolerable.

 

[Brock Anton]

I don't know, I think he's pretty much done. Sign Rask and sign a 6/7 defenseman for depth/expansion draft and that's pretty much it. I really don't expect anything else.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

I don't think anyone's expectations were shattered. I doubt many of us were surprised at all, frankly. We last made a splash when we signed Alex Semin to a 1 year deal. That was 4 years ago. We signed Tomas Kaberle in 2011. Essentially we've made two major free agency moves (and Kaberle is hardly major) in the past 10 years. I don't think anyone is surprised.

What is annoying is the fact that we're playing with WAY less money than nearly every other team in the NHL. That's not Francis's fault, but it's annoying in any event. If we sign Rask to $4M and Murphy to $1M, our total payroll will be about $54M next year. That number is the salary cap floor. $5.8M of that money comes from the Semin and Wizniewski buyouts (most other teams used compliance buyouts on situations like that a couple years ago) $4M more comes from the Bickell dump. If we stay at the floor, we'll be $19M less than some other competing teams. It's frustrating that our payroll is never near the cap, and it's frustrating that we have less payroll than we had in years prior (last year 61M, 2 years ago 63M, 3 years ago 64.3M). I know it's not at all Francis's fault, but I abhor the fact that we may be working with $19M less than many other teams. I know it's not apples to apples, but we could sign 3 Loui Erikssons with this money. I'm not saying that's a wise idea, but it's frustrating that we're using 74% of our potential (including Bickell, it's like 68%). It's like we keep landing on Pennsylvania Avenue in Monopoly and we keep refusing to buy the property.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

I noticed this. I don't think there's one team that's jumped from lottery-bound to playoff team, and I don't think there's any bubble team that's jumped to contenders. I think the team that's improved the most are the NJD's, but I wouldn't pencil them into the playoffs. If anything, there's a few teams that have regressed by letting UFA's walk (St. Louis and NYI).

Sometimes the best move is no move.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Devils traded for Hall, then signed a bunch of spare parts to replace their outgoing spare parts. Problem is, in terms of team production Hall may be more of a lateral move. They were worse than the Hurricanes at scoring-worst in the League-, but got elite goaltending.

Beau Bennett went there though. That's a shame, I enjoyed Pittsburgh fans offering Beau Bennett for Skinner on the justification that the Hurricanes needed "young scoring".

 

[DaveG]

If we could have made the kind of moves to put us in this year without really messing with the payroll situation long-term they would have been done.

But the only top 6 center (nevermind top line, there were none of those) that hit the market went for 5 years / 30 million.

The top line winger options were out there, but they all went for term as well aside from Boedker, who went for a chance to win.

I have no issue if Francis decides to pay someone like that one of these years, but were we really going to put ourselves in a better position to win both short and long term by doing so? About the only two players you can argue that we would have done that with are Okposo (very debatable given his contract) and Boedker (legit yes given his contract).

Everything else is window dressing, and right now we have a coach that puts young players in a place to succeed very effectively, has even Jeff Skinner playing total hockey, and we have a GM that at least looks like he has a plan for once. Yeah it sucks seeing all these high priced players end up in ****fests like Edmonton but ask a Tampa or Florida fan what having a GM that is willing to come in and shake up the culture of a team that's stagnated in mediocrity can do.

This isn't Edmonton, Toronto, or Buffalo deliberately being awful for high picks year after year. There's a plan and a method in place here for Francis and last year showed it will work.