Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part III - Will EK stay or will EK go?

[haohmaru]

One last thing from me about the return on Mac. I still see a lot of people say that when you trade a #1 or your #1 you should get X, Y, and Z. Look at the contract Mac signed. That's not that contract a #1 would sign. That's like what a #2/3 would sign. And that's what I think Mac is, even if he was our #1 (which doesn't change his market value). He is a #2/3 who I think might slip a little further in the next year or two--and then who knows moving forward with his history. So, if you value him as apparently the market does, the return seems a lot more fair.

And yes I know the Miller component changes things, but I don't think it changes them enough to make the deal anything else than good/fair. JMO.

He's a 3/4 at this point. Solid at that slot but his #1 days are behind him which is really kind of surprising given his age. Unless there's been something nagging him for the last 2 years, he's not the player he once was.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Who are these elite pieces that Tampa (or whoever) would be willing to give up, that Ottawa won't be looking for themselves? I dont think that there are enough assets to go around necessarily, but that could depend on the team. I think that's a lot easier said than done. Also I'm a prude with the cap space so it's really tough for me to see what could make a deal work that is worth taking some of those anchors back.

Well the cap space is a huge factor in this. Ottawa wants to get rid of Ryan; Tampa needs to get rid of Callahan for Karlsson, likely Johnson and Killorn to resign Kucherov.

The Rangers don't have any critical piece up for a massive extension except Kreider in two years. Skjei too if he has a huge year or two that will cost UFA years.

Tampa has enough assets to please both Ottawa and the Rangers. Foote, Katchouk, Raddysh, Cirelli, Sergachev are their best prospects. Ottawa has several blue chippers but they dealt away Bowers and their 2019 first for Duchene, so it's doubtful they will part with anyone south of 22. I think they woukd rather eat Ryan's deal than move another prospect.

I think taking on Callahan should cost Tampa Sergachev, but Ottawa likely wants him too. Yzerman in 3-4 years won't be able to afford him anyway.

I'd be fine with Foote and Lipanov, or a 2020 1st and Raddysh or Katchouk.

 

[bernmeister]

This is my issue. If we're helping TBL land Karlsson, I want a Top-5 prospect from them. But, those are the same prospects OTT is going to be (rightly) demanding. And we all know that Yzerman is tight-fisted and arrogant about giving up assets. Cal Foote was a "non-starter" for McD, which is ridiculous. We still might win that trade, depending on how Howden and Hajek develop, but the fact that we didn't get their top prospect for a #1D still irks me.

I just don't want a repeat of that feeling. Now, I'm not saying we need to get Foote in exchange for taking on a cap dump, but a Top-5 prospect from their organization is a must. Especially given that their prospect depth isn't exactly top-tier anymore.

not excited about Foote

assuming 3 teams (TB) involved, then
$ deal where

unextended EK and Ryan to TB
they add 12ish m give up similar #

Staal, Smith, Foote, + to OTT
they net gain about 10m cap relief

JT Miller, Point, Callahan +
We take on significant 10m+ cap, but not Ryan, and that includes JT at 5+m.

sorry, too early to remember exactly what I said
too biz to go back and dig it up

Either we deal directly
or we get paid to grease the wheel
either way, we are using $ to get assets

 

[JayMan82]

He's a 3/4 at this point. Solid at that slot but his #1 days are behind him which is really kind of surprising given his age. Unless there's been something nagging him for the last 2 years, he's not the player he once was.

He's like a 2010 model car with 200k miles.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

not excited about Foote

assuming 3 teams (TB) involved, then
$ deal where

unextended EK and Ryan to TB
they add 12ish m give up similar #

Staal, Smith, Foote, + to OTT
they net gain about 10m cap relief

JT Miller, Point, Callahan +
We take on significant 10m+ cap, but not Ryan, and that includes JT at 5+m.

sorry, too early to remember exactly what I said
too biz to go back and dig it up

Either we deal directly
or we get paid to grease the wheel
either way, we are using $ to get assets

Dude, this is brutal for OTT and TBL. Why would either of those teams do this? Please think about that a bit.

 

[Inferno]

Well the cap space is a huge factor in this. Ottawa wants to get rid of Ryan; Tampa needs to get rid of Callahan for Karlsson, likely Johnson and Killorn to resign Kucherov.

The Rangers don't have any critical piece up for a massive extension except Kreider in two years. Skjei too if he has a huge year or two that will cost UFA years.

Tampa has enough assets to please both Ottawa and the Rangers. Foote, Katchouk, Raddysh, Cirelli, Sergachev are their best prospects. Ottawa has several blue chippers but they dealt away Bowers and their 2019 first for Duchene, so it's doubtful they will part with anyone south of 22. I think they woukd rather eat Ryan's deal than move another prospect.

I think taking on Callahan should cost Tampa Sergachev, but Ottawa likely wants him too. Yzerman in 3-4 years won't be able to afford him anyway.

I'd be fine with Foote and Lipanov, or a 2020 1st and Raddysh or Katchouk.

On what planet does taking on a bad cap hit for 2 years get u a bluechip defenseman..that's...insane.

 

[JT Kreider]

One last thing from me about the return on Mac. I still see a lot of people say that when you trade a #1 or your #1 you should get X, Y, and Z. Look at the contract Mac signed. That's not that contract a #1 would sign. That's like what a #2/3 would sign. And that's what I think Mac is, even if he was our #1 (which doesn't change his market value). He is a #2/3 who I think might slip a little further in the next year or two--and then who knows moving forward with his history. So, if you value him as apparently the market does, the return seems a lot more fair.

And yes I know the Miller component changes things, but I don't think it changes them enough to make the deal anything else than good/fair. JMO.

And Hedman isn't getting paid like a true #1 defensemen either, let alone the second best defensemen in the entire league.

Nor is Stamkos getting paid like he is a franchise center. He's making $2.5 million less than Tavares.

Don't compare Tampa contracts to the outside world .

 

[East Coast Bias]

In what world is any team trading a Sergachev to a team to take on Callahan.

No wonder people think our FO sucks with these kind of expectations.

 

[JT Kreider]

not excited about Foote

assuming 3 teams (TB) involved, then
$ deal where

unextended EK and Ryan to TB
they add 12ish m give up similar #

Staal, Smith, Foote, + to OTT
they net gain about 10m cap relief

JT Miller, Point, Callahan +
We take on significant 10m+ cap, but not Ryan, and that includes JT at 5+m.

sorry, too early to remember exactly what I said
too biz to go back and dig it up

Either we deal directly
or we get paid to grease the wheel
either way, we are using $ to get assets

So we give up Staal and Smith and get back Point, Miller and Callahan.

Hahaha please don't post this on the trade board.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

So we give up Staal and Smith and get back Point, Miller and Callahan.

Hahaha please don't post this on the trade board.

I nearly spit out my coffee when I saw this.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

I wouldn't have given McDonagh that extension but Yzerman is clearly gearing up for a 3-4 year window here. He is not concerned with the last few years of that deal. That's not evidence of an organization not seeing the decline of a player but rather a team not worrying about down the road when they see a legitimate window opening for them right now.

Tampa's window is wide open, with or without McDonagh. At least that's how I see it. Point, Kucherov, Sergachev, Vasilievsky alone is a Cup-contending core to build around. Plus their system is deep with NHL-ready talent.

I'm just glad it was another team that gave McDonagh an extension. They probably did it partly because Karlsson is the bigger prize and knows he'll probably have to deal Sergachev to get him.

 

[nyr2k2]

He's a 3/4 at this point. Solid at that slot but his #1 days are behind him which is really kind of surprising given his age. Unless there's been something nagging him for the last 2 years, he's not the player he once was.

Right. I mean we can have a discussion about whether he's a 2, 3, or 4, or whatever, but clearly he's not a #1, which is why he signed a deal that's basically 7x7, and it's why he didn't return Sergachev or whatever else some people wanted (Foote, etc.).

Doughty, Subban, OEL, Burns, Carlson, Hedman, Weber, Byfuglien, Suter, Ekblad, Letang, Phaneuf, Vlasic, Seabrook, Giordano. All have higher cap hits, almost all signed the deals in the past when the cap was lower (to varying degrees). And then here's Mac, getting a deal at $6.75. By the 20-21 season his cap hit for defensemen is probably around #20 in the league, maybe lower. He's not elite anymore, and he's not paid like hit. He's paid like Shattenkirk who half the posters want to cut, or Keith Yandle.

 

[NYR Viper]

So let's assume the Rangers knew they had a deal or two lined up in the off-season to take on a bad contract when they dealt away Miller + McDonagh at the deadline. So this season, McDonagh makes $4.7m and Miller makes $5.25m for a total of $9.95m. Namestnikov makes $4m. That leaves $5.95m to take on a bad contract now available that wasn't before.

So let's assume, they take on Callahan @ $5.8m and receive Volkov + TB 3rd '19 + TB 2nd '20(condition being the '19 pick already received remains at a 2nd) or something along those lines.

The deal then looks like:

McDonagh + Miller for Namestnikov + Hajek + Howden + Volkov + TB 1st '18 + TB 2nd '18 + TB 3rd ' 18 + TB 2nd '20 + Callahan

basically what I am saying is that, if Gorton can swing a deal for a cap dump, McDonagh/Miller deal helped to create the space to make that possible. Similar line of thinking to when the Rangers traded Gomez for Higgins + McDonagh and then used the same exact cap hit on a free agent in Gaborik. The trade, for all intents and purposes, became Gomez for McDonagh + Higgins + Gaborik

 

[nyr2k2]

And Hedman isn't getting paid like a true #1 defensemen either, let alone the second best defensemen in the entire league.

Nor is Stamkos getting paid like he is a franchise center. He's making $2.5 million less than Tavares.

Don't compare Tampa contracts to the outside world .

They both signed their deals a couple years ago. Prices have gone up. And that's even more telling about McDonagh--his extension doesn't kick in until the 19-20 season, which makes the value even lower, if one assumes the cap continues to increase.

 

[Good Intentions]

Well the cap space is a huge factor in this. Ottawa wants to get rid of Ryan; Tampa needs to get rid of Callahan for Karlsson, likely Johnson and Killorn to resign Kucherov.

The Rangers don't have any critical piece up for a massive extension except Kreider in two years. Skjei too if he has a huge year or two that will cost UFA years.

Tampa has enough assets to please both Ottawa and the Rangers. Foote, Katchouk, Raddysh, Cirelli, Sergachev are their best prospects. Ottawa has several blue chippers but they dealt away Bowers and their 2019 first for Duchene, so it's doubtful they will part with anyone south of 22. I think they woukd rather eat Ryan's deal than move another prospect.

I think taking on Callahan should cost Tampa Sergachev, but Ottawa likely wants him too. Yzerman in 3-4 years won't be able to afford him anyway.

I'd be fine with Foote and Lipanov, or a 2020 1st and Raddysh or Katchouk.

This is nicely assembled. Unfortunately, it’s more likely that TB believes it can get away with just one asset (guaranteeing the 1st rounder instead of 2nd). As a ‘numbers game’ receiving two assets in exchange for the cap space is necessary. I’m going to be annoyed if there’s a deal that only bumps us from around 2 to 1. We're so accustomed to being on the opposite side of this table. We hold the cards here, do not let TB off lightly - multiple assets or no deal.

 

[JT Kreider]

I'm willing to give McDonagh a full year in the Tampa system to get the AV stench off of him. Even though it was a shorter sample size AV brought out the worst in Eric Staal and nearly destroyed the guys career with how shot he looked.

Then of course he gets out and puts up two huge seasons. Same with Yandle. He just had the highest point total of his career, numbers we couldn't even have imagined him putting up with his usage under AV.

It'll be really telling if McDonagh gets back to his 2012 Norris Mactruck form this season.

And should be the final nail in the coffin for AV.

And not a good look for Gorton either that he nuked this team before firing AV and seeing what could happen under an actual competent coach.

 

[Edge]

A few thoughts:

1. For all this talk about EK being worth an exorbitant return, there's been a a bit of reluctance on the part of multiples teams to give up their top prospects --- not just the Rangers.

2. The return for taking on salary is not going to be Sergachev, or one of Tampa's top prospects. Tampa might be willing to move those pieces to Ottawa, something they weren't necessarily inclined to do 6 months ago. But they're not sending them to the Rangers.

3. Unless Ryan McD reverses the slide he's be on for the past few years, he's a borderline first pair defenseman at this point and probably more ideally suited for the second unit. Of course, that's today. One of the bigger issues that we're forgetting is how he looks two, three or five years down the road.

4. The Rangers system probably has more depth than at any point since the early 90s. But I think this next year is needed to give it even more firepower.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

On what planet does taking on a bad cap hit for 2 years get u a bluechip defenseman..that's...insane.

Datsyuk/Chychrun. Chayka specifically said he made the deal just to draft him.

Bolland/Crouse (not a defenseman but a blue chip at the time).

That's pretty close to a precedent.

 

[Edge]

I'm willing to give McDonagh a full year in the Tampa system to get the AV stench off of him. Even though it was a shorter sample size AV brought out the worst in Eric Staal and nearly destroyed the guys career with how shot he looked.

Then of course he gets out and puts up two huge seasons. Same with Yandle. He just had the highest point total of his career, numbers we couldn't even have imagined him putting up with his usage under AV.

It'll be really telling if McDonagh gets back to his 2012 Norris Mactruck form this season.

And should be the final nail in the coffin for AV.

And not a good look for Gorton either that he nuked this team before firing AV and seeing what could happen under an actual competent coach.

The era was over.

Time to move on.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Stevie Y, come on up - you’re the next contestant in “Take Advantage of a Cheap Arsed Owner”.....in this round you’ll be playing against Eugene Melnyk.....Eugene is from Ottawa and is known to make a penny cry when he touches it.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Datsyuk/Chychrun. Chayka specifically said he made the deal just to draft him.

Bolland/Crouse (not a defenseman but a blue chip at the time).

That's pretty close to a precedent.

Datsyuk for chychrun wasn’t a straight up trade. He took on the cap space to move up a few spots in the draft.

 

[haveandare]

I'm willing to give McDonagh a full year in the Tampa system to get the AV stench off of him. Even though it was a shorter sample size AV brought out the worst in Eric Staal and nearly destroyed the guys career with how shot he looked.

Then of course he gets out and puts up two huge seasons. Same with Yandle. He just had the highest point total of his career, numbers we couldn't even have imagined him putting up with his usage under AV.

It'll be really telling if McDonagh gets back to his 2012 Norris Mactruck form this season.

And should be the final nail in the coffin for AV.

And not a good look for Gorton either that he nuked this team before firing AV and seeing what could happen under an actual competent coach.

I really doubt he'll look as good as he looked 6+ years ago. Staal and Yandle had relatively short down periods with AV while getting light minutes. McD hasn't been prime McD for years despite getting 1D minutes the whole time.

He's not the player he was anymore no matter where he plays.

Also, Cooper is barely more competent than AV imo, he just has a lot better players to work with.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

This is nicely assembled. Unfortunately, it’s more likely that TB believes it can get away with just one asset (guaranteeing the 1st rounder instead of 2nd). As a ‘numbers game’ receiving two assets in exchange for the cap space is necessary. I’m going to be annoyed if there’s a deal that only bumps us from around 2 to 1. Were so accustomed to being on the opposite side of this table. We hold the cards here, do not let TB off lightly - multiple assets or no deal.

Exactly. The Rangers should dictate the terms. I would even take on Ryan to get rid of Staal, but I doubt he waives his trade clause to go to Ottawa. Rather have a 20-goal scorer with manageable minutes for two million more than a mess like Staal playing 20 mins a night.

Yzerman clearly wants a Cup and is worried about Boston and Toronto.

The funny thing is it's pretty much a guarantee that at least one of those teams will be out in the first round every year during their respective windows.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Datsyuk for chychrun wasn’t a straight up trade. He took on the cap space to move up a few spots in the draft.

Arizona traded a 2nd rounder to Detroit as well in that deal.

 

[Edge]

I really doubt he'll look as good as he looked 6+ years ago. Staal and Yandle had relatively short down periods with AV while getting light minutes. McD hasn't been prime McD for years despite getting 1D minutes the whole time.

He's not the player he was anymore no matter where he plays.

Also, Cooper is barely more competent than AV imo, he just has a lot better players to work with.

Staal reversed a trend that he'd shown for multiple years, with two teams. I think he found an ideal fit in Minnesota and made it work. Sometimes that happens, but it's more the exception than the rule that a declining player bounced back that way at age 32 and 33.

Regarding Yandle. I just glanced at the numbers and his ppg totals with the Rangers were .56, compared to .59 with the Panthers.

While I agree that there are players I want to see in a different system, he hasn't exactly had renaissance in Florida either. And last I checked, they were Lottery team last year as well.