Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part II - Who is left?

  • Xenforo Cloud has upgraded us to version 2.3.6. Please report any issues you experience.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Dallas News ends up including a joke tweet "Karlsson straight up for Girardi" within their story.

Nicely done, Dallas news. Hockey, wooo! What an embarrassment. Accountability? Assign this person to another division, you have to be joking.

Stars' Miro Heiskanen staying put as Senators reportedly deal Erik Karlsson to Lightning

Holy shit, not only that they mentioned it like it was a serious tweet. "Numerous tweets had Karlsson being dealt to Tampa Bay for Lightning defenseman Daniel Girardi." I understand hockey is not huge in Dallas, but employ somebody competent that actually knows the sport. There are enough people in Dallas where that's possible.
 
you must mean Dubinsky circa 2011 otherwise not sure why you'd want the 4th line center with a $5.85M salary cap. You'd cheer your ass off like it was 2011, yes?

Callahan might not even play.

Both guys are 4th line players. I liked Dubinsky better and it's hard to really argue that either one is a better player at this point.

I am comparing welcoming back Callahan or Dubinsky. I did think their contracts were the same but Dubinsky has an extra year, so I suppose I would not take him after all.

Taking either player would require we get an asset in return.
 
you must mean Dubinsky circa 2011 otherwise not sure why you'd want the 4th line center with a $5.85M salary cap. You'd cheer your ass off like it was 2011, yes?
Both would be huge steps backwards, both literally and metaphorically.
 
My guess, if we are involved.

Cally + Killorn to the Rangers

Sergachev + Foote/Raddysh + a bunch of picks/prospects to Ott

Karlsson to TB

TB = Stacked for the foreseeable future (But could end up running into the Blackhawks issue of not enough money to spread around eventually and a decimated prospect pool)

Was actually thinking killorn w cally but that’s a lot is salary . Also that 2nd better become a 1st if nyr is involved

Killorn does have a full no trade though
 
Tampa has 3.4m in cap space now. Karlsson makes 6.5m which means they need to clear 4m now (1m operational cap space). By trading away Callahan, they free up 5.8m, giving them 2.7m in cap space.

Next year, Karlsson will require a 5m raise to 11M AAV. Coming off the books are:

Girardi: 3m
Coburn: 3.7m
Stralman: 4.5m
Total: 11.2M

That alone would mean they have around 6-7m in cap space with 4 D-men signed (Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev the others) and 5 forwards. Something has to give way for them to ice a decent team up front.

They can go for Karlsson, but I don't see them being able to keep Kucherov in 2019 if that happens. There's no way he signs for anything less than 8m with his numbers and there just isn't enough cap space to make that happen.
 
Tampa has 3.4m in cap space now. Karlsson makes 6.5m which means they need to clear 4m now (1m operational cap space). By trading away Callahan, they free up 5.8m, giving them 2.7m in cap space.

Next year, Karlsson will require a 5m raise to 11M AAV. Coming off the books are:

Girardi: 3m
Coburn: 3.7m
Stralman: 4.5m
Total: 11.2M

That alone would mean they have around 6-7m in cap space with 4 D-men signed (Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev the others) and 5 forwards. Something has to give way for them to ice a decent team up front.

They can go for Karlsson, but I don't see them being able to keep Kucherov in 2019 if that happens. There's no way he signs for anything less than 8m with his numbers and there just isn't enough cap space to make that happen.
What about Killorn and Johnson? Those two are definitely out of Tampa soon. And I'd think Sergachev is traded for Karlsson
 
This is a good point. I wonder how this trade is going to work then.

Because unless Ryan is going somewhere in this trade, I don't see how they get back enough without getting Sergachyov.
Is Sergachev really all that great? I’m no scout but watching him in the playoffs he didn’t really stand out. Good shot and decent size. But I wasn’t wowed by him. I know he’s still young. Is he expected to get better?
I wonder if Yzerman trades him while he’s super-hyped and valuable.

I may be missing something, granted. Just my impression after watching him over 15 or so games.
 
Holy ****, not only that they mentioned it like it was a serious tweet. "Numerous tweets had Karlsson being dealt to Tampa Bay for Lightning defenseman Daniel Girardi." I understand hockey is not huge in Dallas, but employ somebody competent that actually knows the sport. There are enough people in Dallas where that's possible.

Lmfao that’s hilarious.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SnowblindNYR
What about Killorn and Johnson? Those two are definitely out of Tampa soon. And I'd think Sergachev is traded for Karlsson

Killorn and Johnson both have a NTC so it's difficult to trade them. And if Sergachev is traded they lose the only cheap decent D-man they have. That makes it even worse haha
 
Is Sergachev really all that great? I’m no scout but watching him in the playoffs he didn’t really stand out. Good shot and decent size. But I wasn’t wowed by him. I know he’s still young. Is he expected to get better?
I wonder if Yzerman trades him while he’s super-hyped and valuable.

I may be missing something, granted. Just my impression after watching him over 15 or so games.

I think he projects as a 1D eventually. Better offensively than defensively right now, but he held his own this season defensively, albeit in a sheltered role. Still, very few defensemen his age play in the NHL, so holding his own defensively is well above average.
 
  • Like
Reactions: egelband
4 years of Bobby Ryan will cost more than 2 years of Ryan Callahan.

The benefit of Ryan over Callahan is you are getting an actual productive NHL'er in return.

The benefit of Callahan over Ryan is shorter term and a player that can show youngsters in the Org what you can accomplish with hard work and limited skills. Imagine what you can do when you have skill AND a great work ethic.

Personally I think it's more likely that Ryan gets back to being a 20/20 guy than it would be for Callahan to ever stay healthy for a full season (conceding both are unlikely)

Ryan with retention can be moved again. Callahan is toast
 
  • Like
Reactions: RGY
What about Killorn and Johnson? Those two are definitely out of Tampa soon. And I'd think Sergachev is traded for Karlsson
The Rangers arent doing them a favor and taking two contracts. Tampa has to addd value pieces just to dump one contract for team to help them. Two? Not happening. No team is going to do them a favor
 
Whatever happens TB owes the Rangers a pick in 2019. It's either a 1st or a 2nd. TB is going to send at least one 1st to Ottawa in the Karlsson.

The Senators, meanwhile, are peddling Bobby Ryan’s odious contract and had hoped to attach it to any Karlsson deal. Ryan is due a $7.25 million cap hit for each of the next four seasons.

The Rangers, The Athletic has learned, will not be involved in a deal for that contract because they don’t believe they’ll be still rebuilding in three or four years, and having that type of albatross on the books could prevent them from signing a desired unrestricted free agent next summer.

Ottawa will have to find another dance partner with cap space to move Ryan.

Carpiniello: Rangers' cap space makes them an ideal third...

Bobby Ryan stinks. 31 years old. He is another example of the modern day NHL player peaking in his early to mid 20's and then falling off the cliff in his late 20's/early 30's. 29/30.

Eric Tulsky improved upon that study in 2014 by accounting for player usage and survivorship, but the findings were still reasonably similar. A forward in his mid-20s is likely in the prime of his career.

Why are these findings so important? For starters, the NHL's current contract system bars young players from reaching unrestricted free agency, generally, until they are in their mid-to-late 20s. By the time these forwards hit the open market, many have already played through the prime of their careers on relatively cap-friendly contracts.


scoring-and-shots.jpg


At the very least, we can reasonably conclude that a big reason why forward scoring drops off as a player ages through the league is because they simply are less threatening in the offensive zone. We see this start to manifest as a player approaches the age of 30. By the time he's blown past the 30-year hill, his numbers are far more likely than not to take a considerable slide.

Utilizing different statistical measurements to pin down prime performance years was a valuable exercise, but it only served to reinforce what Desjardins and Tulsky found years ago. Generally, a forward is most dominant in his early to mid-20s. By the time said player has hit unrestricted free agency it's likely his best days are already behind him.

https://www.tsn.ca/pinning-down-a-player-s-prime-performance-years-1.388514



Mid 20's are the peak years. When people make fun of me for not liking long term contracts to players in the late 20's and beyond. Here. Look at the data. It's not good. So many mistakes are made with these dog contracts. Look at Ryan McDonagh. He was all world D and he has gotten worse and worse every single season since 14-15. People blamed Girardi. They blamed AV's system. The injuries. Trucker wasn't great in TB. They call Yzerman the wizard but he signed some terrible contracts. He is trying to trade Callahan who hasn't been worth his 6 year contract. The aging curve wasn't nice to him. Yzerman gave McDonagh $6.75M for 7 years. He has him under contract for the next 8 years. Good luck to Stevie wonder.
 
Is Sergachev really all that great? I’m no scout but watching him in the playoffs he didn’t really stand out. Good shot and decent size. But I wasn’t wowed by him. I know he’s still young. Is he expected to get better?
I wonder if Yzerman trades him while he’s super-hyped and valuable.

I may be missing something, granted. Just my impression after watching him over 15 or so games.

No and yes, he has the physical dimensions to become great. That extra jump in his skating, so strong on his skates, good hands and shot, and so forth.

But becoming a great top 5-15 D is about something else, getting it done shift in and shift out, game in and game out, year in and year out. Being super dependable, a leader. Really really smart.

I think with someone like Hedman you could tell that he would become great at a young age. I don’t think Sergachev is there at all. But sure — he has a lot of potential.
 
  • Like
Reactions: egelband
Whatever happens TB owes the Rangers a pick in 2019. It's either a 1st or a 2nd. TB is going to send at least one 1st to Ottawa in the Karlsson.



Carpiniello: Rangers' cap space makes them an ideal third...

Bobby Ryan stinks. 31 years old. He is another example of the modern day NHL player peaking in his early to mid 20's and then falling off the cliff in his late 20's/early 30's. 29/30.




scoring-and-shots.jpg






https://www.tsn.ca/pinning-down-a-player-s-prime-performance-years-1.388514



Mid 20's are the peak years. When people make fun of me for not liking long term contracts to players in the late 20's and beyond. Here. Look at the data. It's not good. So many mistakes are made with these dog contracts. Look at Ryan McDonagh. He was all world D and he has gotten worse and worse every single season since 14-15. People blamed Girardi. They blamed AV's system. The injuries. Trucker wasn't great in TB. They call Yzerman the wizard but he signed some terrible contracts. He is trying to trade Callahan who hasn't been worth his 6 year contract. The aging curve wasn't nice to him. Yzerman gave McDonagh $6.75M for 7 years. He has him under contract for the next 8 years. Good luck to Stevie wonder.


Great analysis. I too looked at Ryan’s production and I agree, the long-term downtrend is disturbing.

6a0105370026df970c01901e4a4e09970b-800wi
 
I for one am thrilled that Gorton finally didn't litter the roster with reject, vet role players that take up spots for kids. I would like to see at least 3 rookies full time on the defense this year and at least 4 rookies full time at forward.

I probably would go Hajek, Point and Lindgren on defense. Up front Chytil, Andersson, Fontaine and Meskanen I would like to see make the team. I probably would give Kravtsov, Ronning and Howden at least half an AHL season. I definitely bring Kravtsov over. His dope coach won't play him enough. Wasting his time there. Should be interesting to see Kravtsov, Ronning, Howden and Gropp get good AHL time. People are writing off Gropp to early. He needs to improve his frame. He gets hurt too easily. However, he played with garbage down there way too much last year. He has a lot of tools that translate well to the NHL game.
 
No ****! That’s why I don’t get how people are ok with this.

It will take us 3-4 years to really become a contender. In 3-4 years, Stamkos, McD, Stralman, and Karlsson will all be on the back-end of their careers. Our windows don't really overlap.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jas
It will take us 3-4 years to really become a contender. In 3-4 years, Stamkos, McD, Stralman, and Karlsson will all be on the back-end of their careers. Our windows don't really overlap.
More like 2-3 to seriously compete. Acquiring Seguin/Panarin/xxx if they become available can speed that process up.

Stralman is a free agent after this season but Sergachev will be emerging. McDonagh is on the decline. EK will still be productive but will be 30-31. Anything can happen with Stamkos health as it seems he has terrible luck. I am not completely sold on Vasilevsky. Johnson will be older. Point will emerge and a couple others. But I dont know. Tampa’s window is the next 2 years imo
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad