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Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part II - Who is left?

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Gardner McKay said:
I'm not sure why people continue to have an expectation that the Rangers will or should offer a contract to Duke. He doesn't fit what they are trying to build.
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I think any young depth is good to have, especially when it comes to the wings on this team. I figure he knows he needs to prove he belongs in the NHL and if that can't get him motivated to be a more complete pro, he's going to be riding buses for a long time. So, if they gave him a 1 or 2 year 900k-$1.5M, I wouldn't be against it. He could have trade value or become a long stay on the team if he gets his shit in order. The speed and talent are there, I think he just needs to mature.
 
Well, he can't exactly get up there and talk about how they didn't like the terms of some of the talent out there and that a rebuilding team isn't exactly the preferred destination for the guys commonly viewed at the top of the list anyway.
 
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Oscar Lindberg said:
*Spoilers*

We're going to underwhelmed with whatever happens in a Hayes trade
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Not really hard to point that out, mostly we only have two reactions here people are underwhelmed with the return or they think it's the steal of the century there's never really a lot of in-between.

I remember everybody being so excited to get wahed up Ryan Clowe, and Brendan Smith was such a steal for two draft picks....
 
What does a de Haan deal look like? Similar to the Smith contract. He'd be a year younger than Smith was last year. I'd be open to adding him but I'd like some sort of resolution on Staal and Smith before their contracts expire. Don't want Hajek, Lindgren and Rykov blocked because of guaranteed money that's immovable.
 
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Leetch3 said:
don't disagree with that but what are you basing the assumption on that the cap is now going to go up every year? because the cap went up this year? the revenue bump from 30 teams to 31 teams was a one time thing. is the canadian dollar going to suddenly recover?

I hope you are right, i'm just not sure i see it as such a sure thing
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No question about it. The underlying revenue of the NHL has grown steadily every season so far, despite some very harsh times. It’s the nature of a business like the NHL, it will grow steadily until fundamental changes occur.

More importantly, there are currently some built in cushions:
* 1/3 of the income comes from Canada, roughly. If the loonie drops 15% it translates to a 1/3 if that in terms of negative impact on the total NHL income, ie everything else equal the cap would shrink 5%.

The loonie is very low. Currencies always fluctuate, up and down, up and down. When it’s low, it’s like doping on the economy and it benefits the export industry tremendously. For the last years the loonie has constantly had a negative pressure on the cap. It is now so low that no drop can have a significant pressure on the cap. And strengthening of the loonie is on the horizon, whether it’s in 1 or 10 years is hard to know, but it will and has always fluctuated.

This means that the cap will no longer be heavily pressured by a crashing loonie and that a big upward push is coming.

* The CBA includes an inflator of which the cap is increased 5% year to year at the option of the PA.

In summary, the PA has more or less used it every year until the last years under which they have reduced the inflator to close to a percent. Everything else equal if the inflator is used Y1 and not Y2, the cap goes — down — 5% Y2.

This decrease is already in the bank. The underlying growth has been so strong that they have been able to stop using it without a decrease of the cap. If the NHL for the first time does not har underlying growth any of the coming years — they would surely use the inflator.

* Another expansion team is coming. It’s surely expected to generate more than average revenues the first years at least. And you of course have many scale effects which will positively impact revenue/team.

In short, the underlying growth the last years have been much bigger than 5%. That will not stop the coming years. There are no external factors that will have a direct negative impact on the cap any more (like he loonie or the stop of the use of the inflator). If the inflator was used this year (like so many years in the past), the cap would have been 84m.

I think everything points at a higher growth than 5% on average over the coming 4-5 years. With negative unforeseen events, it could be a low as 5%. There is absolutely nothing pointing at the cap stop going up the coming 4-5 years.

In 98’ HRR was 1.3bn.

This is the progression from 05:’:

816C4236-21FD-4513-9763-BE07914F4CB5.png
 
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I still not sure its a"rebuild" when you still have guys like Hayes (1 year from FA), Zucc (FA to be) and Shattenkirk are on the team (3 more years) not to mention Henrik.

Its absolutely a rebuild of the pipeline, but is it a rebuild on the NHL level? we'll find out.
 
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