GDT: Free agency madness, brought to you by the letter G - PART 2

[Big Muddy]

I expect Stutzle to command much more than 8.

So do I.

I was just using a rough or approximate number to demonstrate the concept.

 

[GCK]

So do I.

I was just using a rough or approximate number to demonstrate the concept.

Doubt Stu gets much above 8. It’s still mostly potential

 

[Bevans]

Doubt Stu gets much above 8. It’s still mostly potential

Hes already been playing above 8 million since the switch to center. You stu will believe soon.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

The more I think about it, the more I think re-signing Zub is a notable priority. He the type of guy to be on a very friendly deal yet provide Dennis Seidenberg level impact.

 

[Big Muddy]

Hes already been playing above 8 million since the switch to center. You stu will believe soon.

I'm hoping for a big year from Stutzle this year. 75 points, maybe more - who knows? He will finally have skilled linemates to play with.

 

[Cosmix]

Do people on here hedge that AD12 won't resign to prepare yourselves for disappointment or to say I was right?

Why anyone on here that's a fan of the team, wouldn't want our management to have a plan or a want to keep an almost 3 time 40 goal scorer under 25 that we JUST acquired..... I'm just amazed.

Imho i dont think you make a play for a player like that without having a plan to keep them around.

I think most agree that there is a plan. Some don't think it will work out as "planned" by Dorion. Others think Dorion's plans are worthy of scepticism based on his actions and results while being GM.

 

[Big Muddy]

I think most agree that there is a plan. Some don't think it will work out as "planned" by Dorion. Others think Dorion's plans are worthy of scepticism based on his actions and results while being GM.

My guess is that the plan changed when Eugene died and when Brady & Thomas complained about not wanting to wait for the team to get better.

I think the plan could be more short term in nature.

My theory is also that if the current owners can improve fan attendance, hence top line revenue numbers, that would improve the sell price. I'm guessing there's quite a lot of debt, so improving attendance and (top line) revenue numbers is easier and faster than reducing debt.

 

[Cosmix]

My guess is that the plan changed when Eugene died and when Brady & Thomas complained about not wanting to wait for the team to get better.

I think the plan could be more short term in nature.

My theory is also that if the current owners can improve fan attendance, hence top line revenue numbers, that would improve the sell price. I'm guessing there's quite a lot of debt, so improving attendance and (top line) revenue numbers is easier and faster than reducing debt.

Reducing debt requires someone with a lot of surplus capital wealth to buy all or part of the team to pay off the debt. However, debt at this time is probably at a low cost of money but rising inflation could have an impact in future years.

I remember having to take a mortgage to buy a house and paying 18% annually. Wage & Price controls were introduced after that to curb inflation.

I am happy that I have paid off my mortgage and will not be upgrading anytime in the future as my home is big enough for my wife and I plus the kids (40 years and ageing) if they ever return to the nest. It is about 1750 square feet and 2 stories.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Doubt Stu gets much above 8. It’s still mostly potential

There's gonna be a case by the end of the year to give him $10M+ AAV. I still think it's probably better to do a bridge and then extend longterm but there's definitely some level of risk to that.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I think most agree that there is a plan. Some don't think it will work out as "planned" by Dorion. Others think Dorion's plans are worthy of scepticism based on his actions and results while being GM.

Only one team can win each year. 31 plans fail.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yea, Fiala and DeBrincat completely diff scenarios.

I personally did not want Fiala at anything close to 8. However, I would give 9 million to DeBrincat easy.

One just broke out and still has struggled to perform in playoffs thus far in his career. The other has 2 40 goals in his belt, 1 50 goal pace, and basically 2 other 30 goal seasons as just a 24 year old with a good playoff showing.

Short of a catastrophe, and potentially not meshing well with Stutzle at all this season, there is just no way we are not locking him up longterm. Maybe even at the expense of Batherson in the future.

Guys like DeBrincat are gold. 8th best goalscorer last 4 years, yeah, we did not just get him for a year.

Absolutely worst case scenario, we got a 40 goal winger to accelerate the development of Stutzle for a couple years, and probably easily recoup similar assets to what we lost for him.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Only one team can win each year. 31 plans fail.

Not every plan has 'Win the Stanley Cup' at the end of each year. Utopian ideal, sure, but I'd wager most front offices are a tad more realistic.

 

[Que]

Jacob Chychrun
Travis Boyd

In exchange for;

‘23 1st
‘25 1st (top 3 protected)
‘24 2nd (Ottawa)
Roby Jarventie
Levi Merleinen
Nikita Zaitsev

I think if we drop the protection on ‘23 and severely reduce it on ‘25 we can keep Kleven, Sogaard, Grieg and Pinto. Risk vs. Reward

It’s essentially 2 trades. Chychrun for two 1sts and Jarventie and Boyd for Zaitsev, Merleinen and a 2nd

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Not every plan has 'Win the Stanley Cup' at the end of each year. Utopian ideal, sure, but I'd wager most front offices are a tad more realistic.

Every team wants success. Dorions plan *this offseason* is to have more of it. Hard to argue that or question it.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Every team wants success. Dorions plan *this offseason* is to have more of it. Hard to argue that or question it.

No disputing that every team is striving for success, that's a no-brainer. But the definition varies from team to team. For instance, I think most would agree making the playoffs would be considered a successful season here, whereas somewhere like Tampa that'd be the bare minimum expectation.

 

[OD99]

I'm hoping for a big year from Stutzle this year. 75 points, maybe more - who knows? He will finally have skilled linemates to play with.

PPG minimum.

 

[bicboi64]

For Stuetzle to get $8+ million, he needs to perform better than guys like;
-Norris, 8 year $7.9 million aav, (beating 35 goals isn't easy, but maybe overall points will be in Stu's favour)
-Jack Hughes, 8 year $8 million aav deal after a break out season at 1.14ppg pace
-Suzuki 8 year $7.8 million who is better defensively, but can still point up decent numbers against top pairing defenders

Each of those guys are good contract comparables. He's hasn't produced like Petersson in Vancouver either, so a bridge deal like ($7.3 million aav x 3)) his won't be likely either.

If he wants a better deal than Hughes, he has to put up 80+ points. I think Stu can do it, but not sure if its likely next season, I see him closer to 70-75. I hope he ends up signing for 8 years x $8 million aav and doesn't price himself out of Ottawa. Even a bridge deal, he better not be getting anywhere near what Petersson did for Vancouver.

 

[GCK]

There's gonna be a case by the end of the year to give him $10M+ AAV. I still think it's probably better to do a bridge and then extend longterm but there's definitely some level of risk to that.

If he only hits PPG then it’s 8M.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Yea, Fiala and DeBrincat completely diff scenarios.

I personally did not want Fiala at anything close to 8. However, I would give 9 million to DeBrincat easy.

One just broke out and still has struggled to perform in playoffs thus far in his career. The other has 2 40 goals in his belt, 1 50 goal pace, and basically 2 other 30 goal seasons as just a 24 year old with a good playoff showing.

Short of a catastrophe, and potentially not meshing well with Stutzle at all this season, there is just no way we are not locking him up longterm. Maybe even at the expense of Batherson in the future.

Guys like DeBrincat are gold. 8th best goalscorer last 4 years, yeah, we did not just get him for a year.

Absolutely worst case scenario, we got a 40 goal winger to accelerate the development of Stutzle for a couple years, and probably easily recoup similar assets to what we lost for him.

Fiala is one of the most productive 5on5 players in the league though.

 

[playasRus]

For Stuetzle to get $8+ million, he needs to perform better than guys like;
-Norris, 8 year $7.9 million aav, (beating 35 goals isn't easy, but maybe overall points will be in Stu's favour)
-Jack Hughes, 8 year $8 million aav deal after a break out season at 1.14ppg pace
-Suzuki 8 year $7.8 million who is better defensively, but can still point up decent numbers against top pairing defenders

Each of those guys are good contract comparables. He's hasn't produced like Petersson in Vancouver either, so a bridge deal like ($7.3 million aav x 3)) his won't be likely either.

If he wants a better deal than Hughes, he has to put up 80+ points. I think Stu can do it, but not sure if its likely next season, I see him closer to 70-75. I hope he ends up signing for 8 years x $8 million aav and doesn't price himself out of Ottawa. Even a bridge deal, he better not be getting anywhere near what Petersson did for Vancouver.

Hughes signed Nov 2021 subsequent to a 31pts in 56 game season (0.55 ppg) before a breakout in 2021-2022 where he went 56 pts in 49 games.

Adjusted for cap increases and projections, Stutzle should easily command 8 x 8 with a rookie season of 29pts in 53 games (0.55 ppg) and then surpassed that with a 0.73 ppg pace his sophomore year whiech eclipses what Hischier had achieved by the time he signed.

If Stutzle goes ppg this season he'll likely be asking at Marner (94 pts in 82 games), Tkachuk (104 in 82 games), Point (48 pts in 56 games), and Rantanen (87 pts in 54 games) for appropriate comparables at 9.5M.

Only way I see less than 9M happening (regardless of production between 0.7-1.0 ppg) is if it's a short-mid term deal like Aho's 8.5M x 5 years which was 10.4% of the salary cap after he scored 83pts in 82 games. Otherwise, we'd have to go the Hischier route and extend him before American thanksgiving at maybe 8.5M x 8.

You can try and poke a hole in any of those contracts handed out (Marner overpaid, Tkachuk contract dispute, Point more track record, Rantanen 1.5PPG) to justify why you'd think Stutzle won't get more than 9M without ppg production but that's not what recent and past signing show.

Laine 8.7M x short term for ppg, likely ~9.5-10.5 if it were 8 years (like Eichel). Kaprizov 9M x short term for 1.33 ppg, likely 10.5-11.5M if it were 8 years (Eichel after 5 years inflation, or 13.33% of salary cap).

Petersson got that 7.3M x 3 years contract after 153 pts in 165 games (0.93 ppg) through his ELC for 9% of total salary cap. Stutzle so far has 87 pts in 132 games (0.66 ppg). If he scores at a 70 pt pace, which is probably conservative, that gives him 157 pts in 214 games (0.83 ppg) through his ELC. At 8% total salary cap in case he doesn't produce as well, he would be due 6.7M x 3 years. Add 0.5M AAV per year of contract length, and that's 9.2M x 8 years if Stutzle has an average year.

And we know no one on this board except me wants to sign Stutzle to a short bridge even at that paltry AAV because of cases like Mark Stone or Matt Tkachuk.

 

[Bevans]

For Stuetzle to get $8+ million, he needs to perform better than guys like;
-Norris, 8 year $7.9 million aav, (beating 35 goals isn't easy, but maybe overall points will be in Stu's favour)
-Jack Hughes, 8 year $8 million aav deal after a break out season at 1.14ppg pace
-Suzuki 8 year $7.8 million who is better defensively, but can still point up decent numbers against top pairing defenders

Each of those guys are good contract comparables. He's hasn't produced like Petersson in Vancouver either, so a bridge deal like ($7.3 million aav x 3)) his won't be likely either.

If he wants a better deal than Hughes, he has to put up 80+ points. I think Stu can do it, but not sure if its likely next season, I see him closer to 70-75. I hope he ends up signing for 8 years x $8 million aav and doesn't price himself out of Ottawa. Even a bridge deal, he better not be getting anywhere near what Petersson did for Vancouver.

Yes I expect him to be paid more than all these guys.

Hughes was too quick to secure the bag. Stutzle knows his worth.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Fiala is one of the most productive 5on5 players in the league though.

What's the sample size, though? A year and a half? Playing against 2nd best competition after Kaprizov's line takes the harder pairing and matchups?

Before this season, Fiala's highest point total was 54 points (yes I am aware he paced for about 65-70), while never hitting 30 goals before.

DeBrincat on the other hand? 2 years younger and already hit 40 twice while on pace for a whooping 50 last year.

Yes, one played with Kane, but AD was a phenom in CHL too and everywhere he played; guy is much more of a safer bet to continue to succeed anywhere he goes.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Yea, Fiala and DeBrincat completely diff scenarios.

I personally did not want Fiala at anything close to 8. However, I would give 9 million to DeBrincat easy.

One just broke out and still has struggled to perform in playoffs thus far in his career. The other has 2 40 goals in his belt, 1 50 goal pace, and basically 2 other 30 goal seasons as just a 24 year old with a good playoff showing.

Short of a catastrophe, and potentially not meshing well with Stutzle at all this season, there is just no way we are not locking him up longterm. Maybe even at the expense of Batherson in the future.

Guys like DeBrincat are gold. 8th best goalscorer last 4 years, yeah, we did not just get him for a year.

Absolutely worst case scenario, we got a 40 goal winger to accelerate the development of Stutzle for a couple years, and probably easily recoup similar assets to what we lost for him.

Fiala broke out 3 years ago when he had 54 points in 64 games. Had 40 points in 50 games 2 years ago and then 85 points in 82 games last year.

That's 179 points in 196 games, which is an average of 75 points over a full 82 game season.

As a comparison DeBrincat over the last 3 years had the same amount of points (179) in more games (204).

One can make the argument that DeBrincat's higher goal totals make him the better player, but I think that's more than off-set by the vastly superior linemates DeBrincat has played with. He's been playing with one of the best playmakers in the league the last 3 years and Fiala has not.

The fact that Fiala was able to produce 85 points playing with Frederick Gaudreau and a rookie Matthew Boldy, mostly at even strength, is astounding.

There's not much to suggest DeBrincat is the superior player, let alone worth far more than Fiala.

 

[bicboi64]

Only way I see less than 9M happening (regardless of production between 0.7-1.0 ppg) is if it's a short-mid term deal like Aho's 8.5M x 5 years which was 10.4% of the salary cap after he scored 83pts in 82 games. Otherwise, we'd have to go the Hischier route and extend him before American thanksgiving at maybe 8.5M x 8.

If that's the most likely way to keep him below $9 million, I hope it happens!

The more I look at Toronto, every million here and there helps in finding that extra piece that pushes the roster

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Fiala broke out 3 years ago when he had 54 points in 64 games. Had 40 points in 50 games 2 years ago and then 85 points in 82 games last year.

That's 179 points in 196 games, which is an average of 75 points over a full 82 game season.

As a comparison DeBrincat over the last 3 years had the same amount of points (179) in more games (204).

One can make the argument that DeBrincat's higher goal totals make him the better player, but I think that's more than off-set by the vastly superior linemates DeBrincat has played with. He's been playing with one of the best playmakers in the league the last 3 years and Fiala has not.

The fact that Fiala was able to produce 85 points playing with Frederick Gaudreau and a rookie Matthew Boldy, mostly at even strength, is astounding.

There's not much to suggest DeBrincat is the superior player, let alone worth far more than Fiala.

Indeed, but among the last 3 years, you counted for DeBrincat's lowest career total at 22 years old. Your point still stands that Fiala broke out a little while ago, but still at not a big enough sample size I feel comfortable locking him up longterm as "the saviour" on the wing position for Stutzle vs a legitimate proven 3* time 40 goal scorer at only 24.

Last 2 years: DeBrincat (24 years old) 73 goals 134 points in 134 games.
Fiala (26 years old): 53 goals 125 points in 132 games.

One played with Kane. One played with lesser talent. One was on bottom feeder, the other a contender.

With age, history, and even past 2 seasons, very hard to not consider DeBrincat a the easy better player between the two.