GDT: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 3

[StoicSensFan]

Yep. First he said formenton done for the year, 2nd round pick, Bath for 20.

Now he’s saying 30 each.

I have my doubts.

Wow he really is Randy "PIOOMA" Timmins

 

[Xspyrit]

To Philly: 1st conditional pick, Joseph LW ($3) & Brannstrom LD ($2) = $5 mil out
To Ott: Laughton LW ($3) = $3 mil in

This would be another episode of highly hurtful asset management

Let's look at their production since 2020-21 :

Laughton (26-28 y/o) : 198 GP 38 G 55 A 93 Pts 0.47 PPG (38 pts per 82 games) 16:53TOI/GP
Joseph (23-25 y/o) : 181 GP 27 G 40 A 67 Pts 0.37 PPG (30 pts per 82 games) 13:08 TOI/GP
Brannstrom (21-23 y/o) : 157 GP 4 G 41 A 45 Pts (24 pts per 82 games) 0.29 PPG 17:24 TOI/GP

Laughton is only more productive than Joseph because Philly lacks top-6 talent and he has had more opportunity than he normally would, including prime PP minutes last season and similar ice time as Brady Tkachuk. Do you want to dig into advanced stats because it heavily favors Joseph, including the PK

Laughton is only more productive than Brannstrom because he is a forward and was not 21-23 y/o. Note that only 9 of Brannstrom 45 pts were on the PP. Laughton paced for 22 pts per 82 games when he was that age...

Now tell me why the Senators should spend a 1st round pick while giving up Erik Brannstrom and Mathieu Joseph. Laughton is a small upgrade offensively but a significant downgrade defensively

Brannstrom is a 6th D on this team, Hamonic was used more especially on defensive assignments than Brannstrom & had more pts, was a mentor to Sanderson & dropped the gloves when needed. Joseph is a fast energy skater who IMO is a 11th forward at best, I would argue Kastelic is more valuable due to his ability on faceoffs & that he can drop the gloves & MacEwen will be more valuable in his role as well when needed.

What does Joseph do? He's no different than Gambrell. Your arguement is based on what you think they will do & mine is based on what they have not done. IMO Guennette could turn into a better D than Brannstrom soon, I already think that both Kleven & JBD bring more & IMO Brannstrom will be a target in the playoffs for opposition teams, if he is still here.


He gets overpowered in the corners constantly & loses the puck due to it, he will be targeted by opposition teams in the playoffs & likely all yr.

Sorry but most of this is misinformation. The problem is you evaluate players too much by "toughness". This is not the grab clutch era anymore, it's the PUCK MOVEMENT era. Mathieu Joseph and Erik Brannstrom are much much better hockey players than Dylan Gambrell and Travis Hamonic (Sanderson made him somewhat respectable and carried him all season but the only he does well is being tough as nails and clear the puck through the glass). This is NOT EVEN CLOSE

Hamonic played 65.8 minutes with Holden at ES and they got wrecked with a 21.9 xG%. Hamonic played 53.9 minutes with Brannstrom at ES and had a great 67.6 xG%. Are you starting to see? xG% is an indicator that you will eventually outscore the opposition. Low xG% means you're getting hemmed in your zone and your goalies hate you.

Agreed on everything except the need to get rid of Joseph. I’m not sure how we get under the cap without doing that, unless Batherson is suspended.

Simply by trading Kubalik who might not even get PP time (Stutzle, Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, Giroux, Tarasenko, Chabot, Chychrun, Sanderson and even Brannstrom, Pinto and Greig)

Kubalik scored 17 of his 45 pts on the PP last season... Mathieu Joseph has a better scoring rate at ES over the last 2 seasons... but is much better defensively, including Elite PK metrics. He is more needed than Kubalik who became a bit redundant with Tarasenko signing

It's a no brainer really, get an asset for Kubalik (only 1 year at 2.5 AAV) instead of spending an asset to move Joseph (3 years at 2.95 AAV) because of contracts. It fits the team needs much more anyway. Ideally, we'd have both on the team but too many mistakes (and 5 M$ in dead cap for example) results in this.

 

[robsenz]

Don't trade Branny, don't trade Joseph. Trade Kuba which opens space for Sok on the 3rd and gets us maybe an asset. Sign Pinto and let's goooooo

I'm not sure how to break this to you, but Kuba signed in Florida in 2012.

 

[Xspyrit]

Sheltered.

Player TOI with/TOI away for Top 10 scorers

McDavid 1:18/20:52
Draisaitl 2:18/19:52
Pastrnak 8:57/26:04
Kucherov 8:26/34:43
Mackinnon 2:58/25:43
Tkachuk 6:18/30:37
Robertson 4:25/18:46
Rantanen 3:34/25:09
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7:52/14:19
Elias Pettersson 3:52/8:18

There's a consistent pattern for Brannstrom vs top players.

Yeah but that doesn't mean much. Your 3rd pair is NOT supposed to play against Elite players. I'm sure he plays vs good players on a regular basis, there's an immense pool in talent in today's NHL.

Erik Brannstrom also had the extreme luck to play at least half of his NHL ice time with stalwarts like Josh Brown and a declined Nick Holden. The fact that he had such impressive metrics playing with Holden is extremely promising.

The thing is I'm sure he didn't do worse than the others vs these top scorers.

To go along with offense heavy deployment it’s absolutely a sheltered role.

55.1% is heavy?

I don’t think Chychrun is a top pairing guy and I don’t think he’s done anything in his young career to suggest he is. He’s a good 2nd pairing guy.

I pretty much always see Chychrun in Top-30 D-men rankings, sometimes he's even ranked Top-20

 

[JD1]

This is what I'm hung up on. Everyone is talking about the NHL's investigation and forthcoming suspensions but how could they do anything, and why would they do anything, without the LPD investigation complete?

If the NHL's repercussions don't align with the LPD's conclusions they are opening themselves up to huge lawsuits and grievances. I understand there is a lot of PR at stake but the NHL's most logical move, in my opinion, is to balance their suspensions with the LPD investigation and this means waiting for that shoe to drop. This doesn't mean no suspensions if the LPD investigation doesn't result in charges but it at least means managing the risk of the NHL being at odds with the LPD's findings.

It is also a way to deflect criticism, which I know sounds bad but has to be something the NHL is considering. If the LPD says that the evidence was not conclusive enough for charges to be pressed the NHL can use that to justify closing the book on the whole thing.

Imo the NHL cannot get out in front of the London police. Their investigation matters not when there's a parallel police investigation. There's no defendable way the NHL can suspend players that the police do not charge with an offence.

 

[Micklebot]

Imo the NHL cannot get out in front of the London police. Their investigation matters not when there's a parallel police investigation. There's no defendable way the NHL can suspend players that the police do not charge with an offence.

Ja Morant was suspended for 8 and 25 games with no charges laid in the NBA,

NHL and the NBA are in the business of making money, if conduct off ice puts that at risk, they have rules within the CBA to allow them to address that

 

[Qward]

Deshaun Watson was suspended 11 of 17 games which is 65% of the season.
He had no criminal charges laid against him. All his stuff is civil now.

If the league goes lite on the suspensions, there will be calls for Daley and Bettman to step down. If they go too hard, the NHLPA will appeal and then people will call for the heads of the NHLPA to step down. It is going to be interesting.

 

[Micklebot]

Deshaun Watson was suspended 11 of 17 games which is 65% of the season.
He had no criminal charges laid against him. All his stuff is civil now.

If the league goes lite on the suspensions, there will be calls for Daley and Bettman to step down. If they go too hard, the NHLPA will appeal and then people will call for the heads of the NHLPA to step down. It is going to be interesting.

Ya, that's probably a better example than Morant since the alledged conduct is more similar

 

[JD1]

Ya, that's probably a better example than Morant since the alledged conduct is more similar

In Morant's case, there was video evidence, twice, of him brandishing a firearm

And in Watson's case, wasn't there roughly 25 complaints?

I just don't see NHL acting before the London police nor do I see them acting if the London police do not charge. That's just my opinion but it's far too easy to just swipe the entire thing under the rug if there are no criminal charges

 

[Qward]

In Morant's case, there was video evidence, twice, of him brandishing a firearm

And in Watson's case, wasn't there roughly 25 complaints?

I just don't see NHL acting before the London police nor do I see them acting if the London police do not charge. That's just my opinion but it's far too easy to just swipe the entire thing under the rug if there are no criminal charges

What I am saying is, even if London police do not lay charges, the NHL can still suspend like the NFL did with Watson.

 

[Micklebot]

In Morant's case, there was video evidence, twice, of him brandishing a firearm

Which isn't illegal in Colorado, so what is your point?

And in Watson's case, wasn't there roughly 25 complaints?

So the number of complaints is what matters? Seems like it's the merits of the complainant not the quantity that should matter, if the NHL did it's investigation and found the behaviour to be, although not necessarily criminal, inappropriate for someone representing the league, you think no action should be taken?

I just don't see NHL acting before the London police nor do I see them acting if the London police do not charge. That's just my opinion but it's far too easy to just swipe the entire thing under the rug if there are no criminal charges

Ya, that's fair, but like qward suggested, if the investigation turns up inappropriate conduct, and that becomes public, there will be significant pressure on the league not to just ignore it.

It's a lose-lose situation imo.

 

[BrawlFan]

I pretty much always see Chychrun in Top-30 D-men rankings, sometimes he's even ranked Top-20

Absolutely. I can’t name 60 defenceman better than chych. I think he’s absolutely top pairing.

He may not be a franchise defenceman but how many of those are there anyway?

Karlsson? Josi? Makar?

All 3 have had ups and downs.

We have 3 stud defenceman on our team. All of which can be top pairing.

I think chabot just needs fewer minutes and people will stop trying to trade him too.

 

[JD1]

Which isn't illegal in Colorado, so what is your point?


So the number of complaints is what matters? Seems like it's the merits of the complainant not the quantity that should matter, if the NHL did it's investigation and found the behaviour to be, although not necessarily criminal, inappropriate for someone representing the league, you think no action should be taken?

Ya, that's fair, but like qward suggested, if the investigation turns up inappropriate conduct, and that becomes public, there will be significant pressure on the league not to just ignore it.

It's a lose-lose situation imo.

I disagree. If the coppers don't lay charges, I think it gives the league licence to do nothing.

The cops won't lay out in detail why they didn't lay charges (assuming for a second that they don't). They'll put out a simple statement to the effect that their investigation did not lead them to laying charges. And should that occur, the NHL sure isn't going to release it's own report, they'll simply say something like "we're pleased with the decision made by the London police and we now consider the matter closed"

 

[PlayersLtd]

Ja Morant was suspended for 8 and 25 games with no charges laid in the NBA,

NHL and the NBA are in the business of making money, if conduct off ice puts that at risk, they have rules within the CBA to allow them to address that

edit- late to the party but posting anyway...

Yes, because there was irrefutable evidence that he violated the league conduct policy in the form of a video, countless witnesses etc.... This happens over and over and covers relatively benign stuff compared to rape accusations.

This is different. As a league if they are to tie the players to an accusation of rape as a parallel investigation is ongoing they need to be confident that their findings are supported by those of the London Police Department otherwise they will face the potential of defamation suits. If it didnt happen behind closed doors, say a drunk driving incident, they could justify whatever penalty they want because it's in the public eye without reasonable doubt. But that hasn't happened yet and imo the league needs to be careful that whatever they conclude is, at the very least, not refuted by the London PD investigation.

Best example- the pizza guy. League feels the pizza guy was in the wrong and they go scorched earth by lumping him with everyone else and suspend him for a year.

LPD then comes out and says pizza guy did nothing wrong, timing of his arrival was such that he didn't see anything happening and was simply asked to drop pizza off, was never intending to hang out, had no knowledge, completely innocent.

You can bet in a situation like that pizza guy and his lawyers would go nuclear and sue the league for tens of millions. Now multiply that across all 7 of them (or whatever) if the London PD come out and say that they all had reason to believe it was consensual.

I'm not saying it is but it COULD be a tight rope walk for the league and for that they are much better off letting the LPD investigation get ahead of it and they can come in behind and manage suspension accordingly.

And it doesn't mean the league can't have their own suspensions that don't completely align since they are not bound to the investigation and they have their own standards of conduct. There could be grey areas that don't hold up in a court of law but that give the league all the recourse it needs to issue suspensions and the language behind the London PD conclusions could very will support some strong action by the league.

So the London PD investigation in many ways can open the door for all kinds of suspension, bans etc... but it could also close the door and the league needs to be cautious about this.

 

[Micklebot]

Absolutely. I can’t name 60 defenceman better than chych. I think he’s absolutely top pairing.

He may not be a franchise defenceman but how many of those are there anyway?

Karlsson? Josi? Makar?

All 3 have had ups and downs.

We have 3 stud defenceman on our team. All of which can be top pairing.

I think chabot just needs fewer minutes and people will stop trying to trade him too.

Playing devils advocate here, but maybe by not top pair, the poster means not the go to guy on a top pair,

We often see a setup where the two best D on a team are split, so the top pair would be a number 1 guy, and 2nd pair a number 2 guy.

In this sense, I think Chychrun sort of straddles the line between top pair, and 2nd pair, he's the kind of guy that can absolutely be the anchor for a very good 2nd pair, but if he's the go to guy your top pair, you probably don't have an elite top pair.

Personally, I think he's somewhere in the 25-45 range wrt top D in the league, He's certainly not outside the top 64 if that's what you consider top pair.

 

[BrawlFan]

I disagree. If the coppers don't lay charges, I think it gives the league licence to do nothing.

The cops won't lay out in detail why they didn't lay charges (assuming for a second that they don't). They'll put out a simple statement to the effect that their investigation did not lead them to laying charges. And should that occur, the NHL sure isn't going to release it's own report, they'll simply say something like "we're pleased with the decision made by the London police and we now consider the matter closed"

The NHL is quite risk adverse. I think they’ll do the logical thing here and that is to essentially ban or severely dismantle the career of a few middle six players and let the stars off the hook.

I just want to see the report for the sake of the chain of events. I want to see what the exchange of money was from all parties. Including why our owner and team decided to leave formenton out to dry.

Playing devils advocate here, but maybe by not top pair, the poster means not the go to guy on a top pair,

We often see a setup where the two best D on a team are split, so the top pair would be a number 1 guy, and 2nd pair a number 2 guy.

In this sense, I think Chychrun sort of straddles the line between top pair, and 2nd pair, he's the kind of guy that can absolutely be the anchor for a very good 2nd pair, but if he's the go to guy your top pair, you probably don't have an elite top pair.

Personally, I think he's somewhere in the 25-45 range wrt top D in the league, He's certainly not outside the top 64 if that's what you consider top pair.

Very very very few defenceman in history can carry a pair without an adequate partner. Not even Karl in his prime.

Who has been his d partners in Phoenix?

What about his play internationally?

He looked good here and I’m willing to bet he anchors our top pair with chabot.

My ranking of chych is a lot higher. I think he’s a top 20 defenceman.

 

[Micklebot]

I disagree. If the coppers don't lay charges, I think it gives the league licence to do nothing.

The cops won't lay out in detail why they didn't lay charges (assuming for a second that they don't). They'll put out a simple statement to the effect that their investigation did not lead them to laying charges. And should that occur, the NHL sure isn't going to release it's own report, they'll simply say something like "we're pleased with the decision made by the London police and we now consider the matter closed"

There's already a lot in the public sphere. All it takes is leaks of who the different people where and the pressure will be massive. one person in the know unsatisfied with the way things turned out it asll it takes. The only saving grace the league has, in terms of being able to sweep it under the rug, is that there's plausible deniability for those involved currently to just say, oh, those specific allegations aren't referring to me.

I also don't think the politicians will let it go, when the london police release their decision, one way or another, you'll see increased pressure to address hockey culture within Hockey Canada, I just can't see this going away quietly.

 

[JD1]

The NHL is quite risk adverse. I think they’ll do the logical thing here and that is to essentially ban or severely dismantle the career of a few middle six players and let the stars off the hook.

I just want to see the report for the sake of the chain of events. I want to see what the exchange of money was from all parties. Including why our owner and team decided to leave formenton out to dry.

Yes, the NHL is risk averse and because of that they won't do anything in advance of the London police imo. And if the London police do not lay charges, I cannot see the league issuing suspensions. Why? Because it's big news in Canada regardless of what the London police result is. But south of the border, suspensions will create news. Negative news. And that's news that they'll avoid if they can.

 

[Micklebot]

Very very very few defenceman in history can carry a pair without an adequate partner. Not even Karl in his prime.

Who has been his d partners in Phoenix?

What about his play internationally?

He looked good here and I’m willing to bet he anchors our top pair with chabot.

My ranking of chych is a lot higher. I think he’s a top 20 defenceman.

I never said anything about "without an adequate partner".

There are lots of guys that played on top pairings that were arguably not top 60 Dmen in the league, Demelo, Zub and Methot all did it here. My point is that to argue Chychrun isn't a top 32 guy is entirely defensible and as such many might see him as a better fit for a second pairing. And, if you see him as a guy that should carry the 2nd pair, with an appropriate partner, as oppose to carry the 1st pair, with an appropriate partner, that's fine.

 

[Micklebot]

Yes, the NHL is risk averse and because of that they won't do anything in advance of the London police imo. And if the London police do not lay charges, I cannot see the league issuing suspensions. Why? Because it's big news in Canada regardless of what the London police result is. But south of the border, suspensions will create news. Negative news. And that's news that they'll avoid if they can.

it will be interesting to see, because no charges, and no suspensions might make more news than charges and a suspension, all depends on how things play out in the media and the public eye.

Like I said, I really feel they are in a lose-lose situation.

 

[Cosmix]

Deshaun Watson was suspended 11 of 17 games which is 65% of the season.
He had no criminal charges laid against him. All his stuff is civil now.

If the league goes lite on the suspensions, there will be calls for Daley and Bettman to step down. If they go too hard, the NHLPA will appeal and then people will call for the heads of the NHLPA to step down. It is going to be interesting.

It's going to be discussed and negotiated in private between the NHL and NHLPA before the NHL does anything. Both parties will know where they stand on the issues that may arise from any LPD charges and eventual court decisions. They might and probably will not agree on what needs to be done.

 

[JD1]

I never said anything about "without an adequate partner".

There are lots of guys that played on top pairings that were arguably not top 60 Dmen in the league, Demelo, Zub and Methot all did it here. My point is that to argue Chychrun isn't a top 32 guy is entirely defensible and as such many might see him as a better fit for a second pairing. And, if you see him as a guy that should carry the 2nd pair, with an appropriate partner, as oppose to carry the 1st pair, with an appropriate partner, that's fine.

Probably defensible to argue he is a top 32.

 

[BrawlFan]

I never said anything about "without an adequate partner".

There are lots of guys that played on top pairings that were arguably not top 60 Dmen in the league, Demelo, Zub and Methot all did it here. My point is that to argue Chychrun isn't a top 32 guy is entirely defensible and as such many might see him as a better fit for a second pairing. And, if you see him as a guy that should carry the 2nd pair, with an appropriate partner, as oppose to carry the 1st pair, with an appropriate partner, that's fine.

Apologies. Didn’t mean to imply you said without a partner. It was just a point I was using to say we haven’t been able to assess his true potential without an adequate partner. That’s all.

I see him as someone who is a traditional 2 way D. Lacking the creativity of a Chabot or Karlsson but making up for it in a strong shot and good instincts. So for example, if he were paired with a top four d he’d be able to anchor it.

It’s a good argument to have at least. The team is deep on d. Chych will shine in the playoffs.

 

[Wondercarrot]

I never said anything about "without an adequate partner".

There are lots of guys that played on top pairings that were arguably not top 60 Dmen in the league, Demelo, Zub and Methot all did it here. My point is that to argue Chychrun isn't a top 32 guy is entirely defensible and as such many might see him as a better fit for a second pairing. And, if you see him as a guy that should carry the 2nd pair, with an appropriate partner, as oppose to carry the 1st pair, with an appropriate partner, that's fine.

I’d say it far more defensible to argue he is a top 32 defenceman personally.
He led D men in goal scoring in one of the Covid years, and listening to Warne’s partner on Sens Nation he described Chychrun as a high end defender in his own zone etc.
Paraphrasing he said that anyone who doesn’t think he’s high end on the D side of things hasn’t watched him play much (and I say that goes for most of this fan base including me).
Amazing stick, & body position, forces turnovers and then is able to quickly get pucks up ice etc.

Really looking forward to watching him over a full season.

 

[Korpse]

Yeah but that doesn't mean much. Your 3rd pair is NOT supposed to play against Elite players. I'm sure he plays vs good players on a regular basis, there's an immense pool in talent in today's NHL.

Erik Brannstrom also had the extreme luck to play at least half of his NHL ice time with stalwarts like Josh Brown and a declined Nick Holden. The fact that he had such impressive metrics playing with Holden is extremely promising.

The thing is I'm sure he didn't do worse than the others vs these top scorers.

Okay. So you agree he is sheltered? It's worthy context when his +/- is being waved around.

He spent 709/2236 min with Brown or Holden over the past three season. Compare that to 1028 min with Chabot or Zub. Zub has been his most common teammate in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

Even with his limited ice time against Kucherov, Pastrnak and Tkachuk, he fared worse. Giving up 7GA in ~23.5min.

Yes, I would say his 56.72 offensive zone start is heavily skewewd towards offensive deployment. It was the 38th highest of 212 D with a minimum of 500 min at 5v5.

I'm not even advocating for trading Brannstrom, I'm more than pleased with him as a third pairing D for the time being. I think he can provide value. Just wanted to provide context.