Value of: Framework of a Auston Matthews trade?

[RogerRoger]

Lindholm just proves your point. He openly said he has one year left and will evaluate. Tkachuk literally told them to trade him because he isn’t extending. Dubas said that he wasn’t going to leave and pop up somewhere else (ie lead the leafs on) but he got fired so that’s completely different.

Telling your boss you aren’t looking for another job goes out the window when you are fired. That’s kinda silly.

Matthews said he wants to be In Toronto, it is important for him to get a contract done this summer. He said he isn’t worried and the contract will get worked out. He said this knowing things are “up in the air” with dubas (his words) and the team coming back

That’s very different.

Of course he COULD be lying. He could hate the new gm. Or the moves he makes.

But right now there is literally zero evidence he is 2/3 out the door. Every major insider has said he loves Toronto and wants to sign. They have said he wants to sign for 4-5 years and this is the plan.

They don’t say that about every ufa. They came out of o rielly saying he doesnt want to stay or at least wants to rest ufa. They said that bunting Hyman and Campbell were out.

So it’s just not true. He very well could leave. But there is no evidence to suggest it is likely.

Gaudreau and Tavares prove my point. So does Tkachuk, first said he wanted to stay, then changed his mind after the season. For Dubas it was Toronto or no job. He's got his no job now, why shop around? Oh, he wasn't forthright.

By the way, I'm not saying Matthews is or isn't lying, just that we don't know and that team can't trust them to re-sign if they get close to UFA.

 

[Sparky93]

If he won't sign, it's not a situation where Toronto comes out ahead. Sure there will be a bidding war but at pennies on the dollar. Byfield, young roster player, a 1st and a cap dump, could very possibly take it home.

 

[Byrddog]

It'd be nice to know where he's getting it that he's 2/3 out of the door, but what players say is rather useless. Tkachuk wanted to stay, Gaudreau was emphatic he was going to stay, Dubas said it's Toronto or nothing and he is/was visiting Pitts last week.

You can't hold them to what they say because they mostly want to avoid a media circus if they even hint that there is a % that they won't be back. Heck, Lindholm is not enthusiastic enough about re-signing according to some, so they want him gone right away.

Take just a few minutes to read and become informed. I will refer you to the article from Hocky writers, at least three local Toronto sports writers and one editor have addressed this. Then there have been a number of segments on Siris NHL and any number of the NHL network talking heads have spoke on the topic . Even Bleacher report has done a article but I do not put much to Bleacher report.

If all this press is out there there is little doubt there is more to the story in Leaf’s Nation even Steve Dangle in his game 6 rant mentioned it.

So I have to ask how do you believe there is not fire where there is so much smoke. As I said in another post the only reason I can see Mathews staying would be a massive payday by the Leafs. Now as to CA chunk I dispise that wormy little thug just as I did his dad. I did not like seeing him in a Panthers sweater since I do watch most of there games. He has not been the difference maker in Sunrise that belongs to Bob just going straight nuts. Yet I am pulling for the Panthers to bring the cup back to Florida. Now that’s not a easy thing for a Bolts fan to say but there it is.

 

[kinghock]

If he won't sign, it's not a situation where Toronto comes out ahead. Sure there will be a bidding war but at pennies on the dollar. Byfield, young roster player, a 1st and a cap dump, could very possibly take it home.

Kings cannot afford to spend any valuable assets for not needed but very expensive luxury in Mathews.

In my view Doughty should go to Toronto together with some minor pieces for completion of the trade.

Toronto will not like it and it is good resolution of LA trade for Matthews.

 

[ManofSteel55]

No it isn’t. We’re not taking a maybe for one of the best players in the league. In the scenario Matthews is being traded, the leafs need bonafide quality NHL players

This is a guy with one year left on his deal. Sign and trades rarely happen in the NHL, so its not likely that the Leafs have the leverage to ask for a package that involves a team sending their star players to the Leafs. Despite Matthews being one of the best scorers in the league, its a tricky time to be trading a star like him. You need to find a team that needs a 1C, has the cap space for a guy who may end up as the highest paid player in the league (13M?). That makes it hard. Most teams don't look to rip out a piece of their core, so I can't expect any teams that are good to have parts to trade for Matthews. No team is killing their depth to get Matthews, so they aren't getting 2 or 3 big time NHL players for him. It will be interesting to see what happens, but it will certainly be a bulk "star for package" type deal. And I'm sure some futures will be involved, even if it means the next GM trades those futures for current help.

 

[seanlinden]

If he won't stay in Toronto, my guess is LA would be one of the few teams he'd seriously consider. Locking him in early would make a lot of sense for them. It makes sense to look for possible options here, as a deal stands a good chance of happening imo.

I would tweak the deal to look like so..

Kempe + Vilardi + Clarke + 2024 1st rd. pick

for

Matthews (With Extension)

I think coming away with those 4 pieces set the Leafs up well in a retool. All young first round quality assets with control for 9 years of one of the top-10 players in the league. I like Roy as a fit too for the purposes of the Leafs retool, but I didn't want to be greedy. He's not a deal breaker for me, like these assets would be.

The challenge with your proposed deal, is that it doesn't really "re-tool" the Leafs in the right direction.

There is already talk over whether John Tavares is a centre anymore. If you consider him a winger, Auston Matthews & Sam Lafferty become the only centres under contract or control for the Leafs next year. That's a problem.

If you trade Matthews, you, at mimimum, need to get a centre back.

As for Clarke, while he's obviously a great propsect, I think it's very fair to question whether he can beat out the likes of Liljegren and Timmins for a job next year.... and if he can't, you haven't exactly done a great job using Matthews to improve the immediate future of the team.

To do a Matthews deal, I suspect it will probably have to look more like the Tkachuk deal 1-for-2, than what you've proposd.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

It'd be nice to know where he's getting it that he's 2/3 out of the door, but what players say is rather useless. Tkachuk wanted to stay, Gaudreau was emphatic he was going to stay, Dubas said it's Toronto or nothing and he is/was visiting Pitts last week.

You can't hold them to what they say because they mostly want to avoid a media circus if they even hint that there is a % that they won't be back. Heck, Lindholm is not enthusiastic enough about re-signing according to some, so they want him gone right away.

It's simply factual that Matthews is close to an unrestricted free agent and choosing where he wants to go. That makes him closer to being out the door. The Leafs control one year of him, and they lose control of where they can trade him on July 1. Toronto has one key card to play, and that's their right to sign him to an eight-year deal versus seven years. Media reports say he wants a five-year deal (which I find bizarre from his standpoint), but if true, that really takes away an advantage.

I wouldn't bet my house either way on this.

 

[kinghock]

No it isn’t. We’re not taking a maybe for one of the best players in the league. In the scenario Matthews is being traded, the leafs need bonafide quality NHL players

In trade for Matthews Toronto need to find trading partner with following requirements:

• Team that needs a 1C to be number one priority. Trading partner should accept fact that they are getting not very physical and not clutch player.
• Has the cap space for him without destroying deep and talented roster needed for contending team.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Rumor out of Toronto is that Mathews is looking 13+ AAV & only about 5 years. This allows him another contract, but also takes away TO's ability to put bid teams on an 8 year contract.

Mathews played 82 games and got 40 goals. That's pretty good. In a year with multiple 60 goal scorers & scoring looked like it was up around the league Mathews 40 goals put him in a 5 way tie for 14th in the league in goals, behind Kempe.

Why was Mathews' scoring down this year? Did his wrist injury impact his shot? There was a picture of a brace on his wrist in the playoffs. Is there an ongoing wrist injury?

Mathews is a good player, but is he the best goal scorer in the league? Not last season. Top 10 goal score? Not last season. The ask from Toronto & Mathews on his next contract don't seem to reflect this drop in play.

 

[Magic Man]

The challenge with your proposed deal, is that it doesn't really "re-tool" the Leafs in the right direction.

There is already talk over whether John Tavares is a centre anymore. If you consider him a winger, Auston Matthews & Sam Lafferty become the only centres under contract or control for the Leafs next year. That's a problem.

If you trade Matthews, you, at mimimum, need to get a centre back.

As for Clarke, while he's obviously a great propsect, I think it's very fair to question whether he can beat out the likes of Liljegren and Timmins for a job next year.... and if he can't, you haven't exactly done a great job using Matthews to improve the immediate future of the team.

To do a Matthews deal, I suspect it will probably have to look more like the Tkachuk deal 1-for-2, than what you've proposd.

My thought process was if Matthews is unwilling to re-sign in Toronto, they are likely to move him for value before they can't redeem any at all. Matthews, like Tkachuk, will have a lot of say in where he winds up. So, the list will be narrow. They will have to extract what they can.

I looked at the initial proposal and saw Danault and thought it made a lot of sense to bring him in. But, truthfully, ROR is a better player than Danault. If Matthews leaves, stack some more money on his lap and they should get a deal done with him. Kempe is a better asset than Danault at his age. Maybe, the Leafs still get some years at center out of Vilardi as well.

Clarke I figured would need some time. The 1st round pick is in the future as well. It could be used in a separate trade if the stars align and this trade worked out.

 

[General Fanager]

Toronto needs a cultural change.

They're actually stuck with a bunch of talented offensive players that put their own stats at the very top of their priorities.

Matthews being the kingpin in that regard.

They'd need a hearth and soul player that put the team first to show them the way.

They need depth, grit and character. They need a talented young RHD for their top 4.

I would see a fit in LA for A. Matthews.

A. Matthews

For

Danault + Matt Roy + Gabe Vilardi + Brant Clarke + 2024 1st + conditional 2025 2nd


Danault is exactly what the Leafs need comes the playoff, a centrer that does all the little things a coach wants, even more so in the playoffs: eat the toughest minutes against the best opposite players with positive results, win faceoffs, put team success first.

Vilardi is a big local boy.

Clarke is a talented young RHD. OHL product.

Matt Roy is a big, gritty and tough defenseman to play against. Custom made for the playoffs.

Danault, Roy and Vilardi salaries would facilitate the trade.

Yea....so you know those lowball offers in this thread that get mocked and tons of hate for?

You did the exact opposite of that. This is far far too much going from LA to Toronto.

I do see L.A. being interested though, that much is for sure but I cant see it being anywhere near the package you mentioned.

 

[Zur En Arrh]

I'm sorry Leafs fans have to go through all of that. It must be really hard on you.

it is what it is. It is hilariously deranged. Still, auston is not available. If he ever is it will be july 1 2024 (he won't be) so threads like this are nonsensical (those offers though, bwahahahahaha trash)

 

[General Fanager]

it is what it is. It is hilariously deranged. Still, auston is not available. If he ever is it will be july 1 2024 (he won't be) so threads like this are nonsensical (those offers though, bwahahahahaha trash)

I like the confidence.

But if he is not really serious about a long term deal he must be dealt before July 1st this year.

Watching him walk out the door for nothing next summer would be the worst event in Leafs history.

 

[seanlinden]

My thought process was if Matthews is unwilling to re-sign in Toronto, they are likely to move him for value before they can't redeem any at all. Matthews, like Tkachuk, will have a lot of say in where he winds up. So, the list will be narrow. They will have to extract what they can.

I looked at the initial proposal and saw Danault and thought it made a lot of sense to bring him in. But, truthfully, ROR is a better player than Danault. If Matthews leaves, stack some more money on his lap and they should get a deal done with him. Kempe is a better asset than Danault at his age. Maybe, the Leafs still get some years at center out of Vilardi as well.

Clarke I figured would need some time. The 1st round pick is in the future as well. It could be used in a separate trade if the stars align and this trade worked out.

I don't see the Leafs making a "value trade" for Matthews.... they're not packing it in -- they need a hockey trade, or at least, something resembling one, and probably need to do it before July 1.

Danault does nothing in the context of replacing Matthews. If they have $5.5m to spend on a 2/3 centre, as you mentioned they're much better off to do it with ROR.

 

[NMacrules]

Most of you are caught up with the "One year rental" bs.

Thats not the way this would work. Just like a million other trades, an agreement would take place. Matthews would agree to sign with the team before the trade happens. Once an agreement is made, then Matthews can't back out or face repercussions from the league and the players union. Thats why there are so many players that sign with the team they are traded to. No one ever backs out.

If a player did try to back out after the pieces are in play, the GM would simply take the agreement to the league and to the players union.

The GM would go to Matthews agent and present the team and the package. It doesn't really have much to do with Matthews at that point. Its all about the agent.

GM's don't deal with players, they deal with the players agent.

 

[kinghock]

Most of you are caught up with the "One year rental" bs.

Thats not the way this would work. Just like a million other trades, an agreement would take place. Matthews would agree to sign with the team before the trade happens. Once an agreement is made, then Matthews can't back out or face repercussions from the league and the players union. Thats why there are so many players that sign with the team they are traded to. No one ever backs out.

If a player did try to back out after the pieces are in play, the GM would simply take the agreement to the league and to the players union.

The GM would go to Matthews agent and present the team and the package. It doesn't really have much to do with Matthews at that point. Its all about the agent.

GM's don't deal with players, they deal with the players agent.

I do not believe that "One year rental" is main issue in trading for Matthews.

Here are the main issues in my view:

Trading partner needs to have 1C to be number one priority. Trading partner for Toronto should accept fact that they are getting not very physical and not clutch player.

Trading partner needs to have the 13-15 million cap space for Matthews. To dedicate this amount of money for one player other team needs to provide Toronto with very valuable and not very expensive assets.

I do not believe that return on investment of trading for Matthews will make another team better. It will be quite opposite.

 

[seanlinden]

I do not believe that "One year rental" is main issue in trading for Matthews.

Here are the main issues in my view:

Trading partner needs to have 1C to be number one priority. Trading partner for Toronto should accept fact that they are getting not very physical and not clutch player.

Trading partner needs to have the 13-15 million cap space for Matthews. To dedicate this amount of money for one player other team needs to provide Toronto with very valuable and not very expensive assets.

I do not believe that return on investment of trading for Matthews will make another team better. It will be quite opposite.

Not really on the bolded

Matthews is a franchise player. He's somebody you build your team around. Any team that doesn't have a "marquee" forward, or perhaps has an aging one, is likely to be interested -- knowing that the opportunity to get one of these guys is so incredibly rare, especially at just 25 years old.


As for the cap, a team can probably get him at well under $10m for this year with 3rd-party retention. That is unbelievable value.... and gives them a year to adjust their internal salary structure to accommodate his next deal.

 

[thegilz]

AM3 will not get traded until possibly deadline. I can see the Toronto organization be full of themselves and pretend they have the upper hand, but in reality the GM will be played as a fool and the return won't satisfy the rabid fanbase. AM34 will continue to play out his current contract until next year. AM34 will keep face and continue to say he wants to stay in Toronto.

 

[therealkoho]

It’s illegal to discuss any framework on an extension until July 1 when a non movement clause kicks in.

you are going to be trading him as a 1 yr rental…not a sign and trade. You can’t ride contingencies on him resigning.

This is incorrect.

They can however discuss contract all they want 7 days a week if so moved. If a team with interest in a player seeks permission to speak with that player than it can happen, what can't happen is an actual signature on a contract

If a player is going to UFA, it is "illegal" for other teams to contact the player before July 1st (there is some wiggle room in this regard) as teams are allowed to express interest in the week leading up to July 1st.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The challenge with your proposed deal, is that it doesn't really "re-tool" the Leafs in the right direction.

There is already talk over whether John Tavares is a centre anymore. If you consider him a winger, Auston Matthews & Sam Lafferty become the only centres under contract or control for the Leafs next year. That's a problem.

If you trade Matthews, you, at mimimum, need to get a centre back.

As for Clarke, while he's obviously a great propsect, I think it's very fair to question whether he can beat out the likes of Liljegren and Timmins for a job next year.... and if he can't, you haven't exactly done a great job using Matthews to improve the immediate future of the team.

To do a Matthews deal, I suspect it will probably have to look more like the Tkachuk deal 1-for-2, than what you've proposd.

All good points and observations. But none of this has anything to do with the assets coming back to Toronto if Matthews is traded. What you have mentioned is a concern for the Leaf's organization & fans only. GMs from other teams will not care of course.

 

[Drew311]

Although I would be onboard with trading Matthews if he's indicating he won't sign on July 1st (because chances are he's leaving and Leafs will get nothing), I don't see MLSE approving a trade. He's their marketing machine. The higher ups make this decision, not the incoming GM or Shanny.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

it is what it is. It is hilariously deranged. Still, auston is not available. If he ever is it will be july 1 2024 (he won't be) so threads like this are nonsensical (those offers though, bwahahahahaha trash)

LOL. If Matthews is unsigned on July 1, 2024, that is the best result imaginable for NON Leaf fans I'd imagine. Then he can demand $14 or $15 million or whatever or "I'll see you later alligator".

 

[Drew311]

Toronto needs a cultural change.

They're actually stuck with a bunch of talented offensive players that put their own stats at the very top of their priorities.

Matthews being the kingpin in that regard.

I don't think this is true. I think their top players have no idea what it takes to win in the playoffs with a consistent effort level. We saw it perfectly in the Panthers series. The first three games they looked like they were playing a regular season Saturday night game. The effort was there but no one laying it on the line and going over the top to take over the games. Then with their backs against the wall in Games 4 & 5 they played with the most urgency and intensity I have seen in years from this group. The problem is they wait until their backs are against the wall to play like that. That should be their game plan from Series one/Game one and on.

So I agree that there needs to be a culture change and core shake up, but not because they care about stats...these guys just don't have that other gear that's needed to push them through tough situations and beat teams that do.

 

[Fatass]

LOL. If Matthews is unsigned on July 1, 2024, that is the best result imaginable for NON Leaf fans I'd imagine. Then he can demand $14 or $15 million or whatever or "I'll see you later alligator".

With Dubas gone the Leafs might now have no option but to trade Matthews. He’d have to be traded to a club (LA?) that was confident they could extend him though to get a fair return. Otherwise he’s a one year rental. And even then which top clubs could fit him into their cap without sending equal money back?
If Dubas takes the Pittsburgh job does he try to swing a deal to get AM?

 

[NMacrules]

Not really on the bolded

Matthews is a franchise player. He's somebody you build your team around. Any team that doesn't have a "marquee" forward, or perhaps has an aging one, is likely to be interested -- knowing that the opportunity to get one of these guys is so incredibly rare, especially at just 25 years old.


As for the cap, a team can probably get him at well under $10m for this year with 3rd-party retention. That is unbelievable value.... and gives them a year to adjust their internal salary structure to accommodate his next deal.

This post is bang on. Well done and well thought out and I agree 100%.