Forward Thinking Thoughts

[DemidovSaveUs]

Finally figured out which username was saved from like a year and a half ago on HFBoards, lol. Haven’t had much time to post recently, but I’ve still been watching a ton of games — Wild and league-wide — and I’ve got some thoughts about where we’re at.

This season is what it is. I think most of us know we’re not seriously contending this year, so I’m already thinking ahead — big picture. Just wanted to drop some notes on a few players and what I think the future blueprint needs to look like.

Faber

I’ve been a little disappointed with Faber this year — not in a “he's been a trainwreck” kind of way, but in the sense that the ceiling might not be quite what we hoped. Last year, he looked like a potential elite shutdown D who could log huge minutes, drive play, and chip in on offense. But this year, I’m starting to wonder if he’s more of a very solid top-4 guy rather than a star.

He’s still playing big minutes (top 5 in the NHL in TOI per game among defensemen), which in itself is valuable. But the underlying numbers have dipped — his xGA/60 has climbed, and he’s making more mental mistakes in the D-zone than we saw last year. Offensively, the drop-off has been significant. Some of his points last year came from being stapled to a top PP unit — soon that role shifting to Zeev Buium (and it will), I don’t know how much production he’ll bring. He’s a great skater and he can transport the puck, but I don’t see much real offense with this player.

Still not worried about the contract — in a rising cap world, a 8.5M AAV will be completely manageable. But I do think we might need to adjust the projection here: strong top-4 guy, not franchise cornerstone 1D type most likely.

Spurgeon

I think Spurgeon has been incredibly underrated this season. In the games he’s played, he’s been the steadiest guy on the back end. Still excellent at denying entries, breaking up plays with his stick, and making quick first passes. He's been our most productive d on a per game basis.

That said, I still believe he’s probably going to get moved this summer. We need the cap space to revamp the bottom of the roster (and maybe top) and the captaincy has to be a big part of Guerin's sales pitch to Kaprizov.

Rossi

Man, I’ve got so much respect for what Rossi has done. After all the challenges he's faced, he’s clawed his way into being a legit top-6 NHL forward. That’s not easy. The compete level, IQ, and off-puck game are real strengths.

But here’s the honest assessment: when we drafted him, we were hoping for a Brayden Point or Mat Barzal-type ceiling — dynamic, undersized offensive creator who can run a line. That’s just not who Rossi is. He’s more in the Yanni Gourde mold than Barzal, and I don’t think that’s an insult. Gourde’s an effective two-way player who helps you win, but he’s not a guy you build your top line around.

His skating is good, not great — especially for his size — and the puck skills, while solid, aren’t elite. At this point, I think it’s fair to say he projects more as a middle-six center, maybe your 2C on a deep team. You can absolutely win with that, but you have to build around it properly. If you can get him locked up in the $7–7.5M range long-term, I’d be okay with that. If he prices out above that you have to look to move him, unfortunately. Not to mention he's your biggest trade chip for a true number one center, which I'll touch on more later.

Trenin

Just a complete whiff of a signing. He’s producing at below replacement level, the analytics are brutal, and he’s signed for three more years at nearly $3.5M. No impact, no upside. That’s a dead roster spot. Looked bad at the time, looks worse now. Can’t afford these types of mistakes if you’re trying to build a contender.

Boldy

Still bullish on Boldy. He’s such a smart player — strong puck protection, excellent passing touch, great shot (when on net) and the ability to find soft spots in coverage makes him dangerous. What he needs is his version of what Fiala got with him— a play driving running mate.

Once that happens? I think an 80–90 point season is absolutely in reach. The tools are there, the hockey sense is elite. Just needs the right partner.

Ek

Love this guy. He’s the heartbeat of the team, plays through everything, takes every tough matchup, and never cheats the game. The contract is a steal. Every contender wants a guy like him.

But… I think his offensive production in recent years was a bit inflated due to necessity — injuries, lack of depth, and his deployment on the top line / top PP unit. On a real contender, I think he’s a 45–55 point player who anchors your shutdown line and gives you elite defensive value. That’s not a 1C — it’s the best 3C in the league or a very good 2C. I’d be happy to have him on any roster… just not as the offensive centerpiece.

On the 1C Problem

This brings me to the big point — and one I’ve made before: we still don’t have that number one center you need to win a Cup.

Even if you lock up Rossi at a good number and keep Ek, neither guy projects to be a true 1C in the mold of a Point, Barkov, Eichel, or even a Robert Thomas. You can win a Stanley Cup with Ek and Rossi in the middle six — no question — but you’re not going deep without that true great centerpiece down the middle.

And history backs that up. Look at the last 10 Cup winners — They all had a clear-cut top-line center.

We need to fix this. And if that means packaging Rossi + 1st + Ohgren for Barzal or Thompson or whoever the target is, then so be it. You can’t cling to prospects forever if they’re not solving your biggest hole.

Kaprizov

We all know where this is going — it’s going to be expensive. Panarin got ~$11.6M AAV when the cap was $81.5M. That’d be nearly $14.8M on a $104M cap (which is the projected number for 2026–27). And the year after that? We’re probably looking at $114M+, conservatively. So yeah — the numbers are going to be crazy. Even with the projected cap increases over the next three years — jumping to $92M, then $104M, and potentially $114M — we’re still not hitting a true 50/50 revenue split between players and owners. That means the cap is actually understated relative to league earnings, and there’s still room for significant upward correction. In other words, these jumps we’re seeing now aren’t the end — they’re just the beginning. The cap is going to keep rising rapidly beyond the next three years, which only makes long-term deals for elite players like Kaprizov more palatable as time goes on.

Kaprizov’s agent definitely knows this. The league knows this. So when we talk about potentially paying him $15–16M AAV, you take that and run. Realistically his agent is going to start at or near 20M per year based on the cap inflation argument I just laid out. The number isn't going to be that high, but even if it's 17M you pay it. You have to keep players like this. If he walks, you’re back to square one — looking for that franchise forward for the next 15–20 years. You don't win a Stanley cup without a player like him. The only example I can really think of is St. Louis and even then Tarasenko was still in his prime. Florida has Barkov, Tkachkuk and Reinhart. Vegas had Eichel and Stone. Colorado had Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, and a career year Kadri. Tampa had Point, Kucherov, and Stakmos. Hell, I could make the argument that in this era oyu need 2 or 3 elite forwards to win the cup.

The Blueprint

The blueprint is simple:

• Sign Kaprizov no matter what
• Find a true 1C — pay whatever it takes
• Build smart around them with guys like Boldy, Ek, Faber, Buium, Rossi (if kept), Yurov, and Jiricek
• Avoid anchor contracts like Trenin
• Be hyper-efficient with cap space and asset management
• Be thoughtful in how you use draft capital. Leverage draft picks and prospects to acquire good players on good contracts.

 

[MNRube]

Agree on pretty much everything. The one major exception is Trenin - I think he’s been pretty decent of late.

I thought Faber was playing well up until the concussion. I don’t think he gotten enough rest since.

Boldy has been a letdown overall. Excellent player but his flashes of elite level play are not the normal we’d hope they do.

I think one possible way to address the C position is by dangling Rossi + Brodin as a package. Namely for Tage Thompson.

The benefit of moving Brodin is that it opens up a spot to add another big DFD which is much needed, IMO.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I was going to make a Kaprizov-specific thread just to have that conversation, but I'll put it here...

I agree that it's a bet that we pretty much have to make. I understand the downsides (recent injuries, age range of the contract) but we've seen what we are without him. I don't quite agree on the numbers though. Even with the projections, I think there is still enough uncertainty to keep it away from starting at $20M and settling at $17M. It'll be interesting to see how quickly after July 1 McDavid re-signs. That'll essentially tell us everything.

I was fine with $13.125M prior to the projections. Now, I don't think $15M is out of line. Over that, I think hard discussions are to be had. You just can't give him $17M if McDavid only signs for $15M.

 

[DemidovSaveUs]

I was going to make a Kaprizov-specific thread just to have that conversation, but I'll put it here...

I agree that it's a bet that we pretty much have to make. I understand the downsides (recent injuries, age range of the contract) but we've seen what we are without him. I don't quite agree on the numbers though. Even with the projections, I think there is still enough uncertainty to keep it away from starting at $20M and settling at $17M. It'll be interesting to see how quickly after July 1 McDavid re-signs. That'll essentially tell us everything.

I was fine with $13.125M prior to the projections. Now, I don't think $15M is out of line. Over that, I think hard discussions are to be had. You just can't give him $17M if McDavid only signs for $15M.

Just my opinion but I think all of these players numbers are going to drastically change after UFA. You’re already kind of seeing it. The Chycrun deal is another example. I just think Kaprizov is going to play hardball like he always has and at the end of the day Guerin’s going to make him the highest paid player of all time.

 

[MK9]

Finally figured out which username was saved from like a year and a half ago on HFBoards, lol. Haven’t had much time to post recently, but I’ve still been watching a ton of games — Wild and league-wide — and I’ve got some thoughts about where we’re at.

This season is what it is. I think most of us know we’re not seriously contending this year, so I’m already thinking ahead — big picture. Just wanted to drop some notes on a few players and what I think the future blueprint needs to look like.

Faber

I’ve been a little disappointed with Faber this year — not in a “he's been a trainwreck” kind of way, but in the sense that the ceiling might not be quite what we hoped. Last year, he looked like a potential elite shutdown D who could log huge minutes, drive play, and chip in on offense. But this year, I’m starting to wonder if he’s more of a very solid top-4 guy rather than a star.

He’s still playing big minutes (top 5 in the NHL in TOI per game among defensemen), which in itself is valuable. But the underlying numbers have dipped — his xGA/60 has climbed, and he’s making more mental mistakes in the D-zone than we saw last year. Offensively, the drop-off has been significant. Some of his points last year came from being stapled to a top PP unit — soon that role shifting to Zeev Buium (and it will), I don’t know how much production he’ll bring. He’s a great skater and he can transport the puck, but I don’t see much real offense with this player.

Still not worried about the contract — in a rising cap world, a 8.5M AAV will be completely manageable. But I do think we might need to adjust the projection here: strong top-4 guy, not franchise cornerstone 1D type most likely.

Spurgeon

I think Spurgeon has been incredibly underrated this season. In the games he’s played, he’s been the steadiest guy on the back end. Still excellent at denying entries, breaking up plays with his stick, and making quick first passes. He's been our most productive d on a per game basis.

That said, I still believe he’s probably going to get moved this summer. We need the cap space to revamp the bottom of the roster (and maybe top) and the captaincy has to be a big part of Guerin's sales pitch to Kaprizov.

Rossi

Man, I’ve got so much respect for what Rossi has done. After all the challenges he's faced, he’s clawed his way into being a legit top-6 NHL forward. That’s not easy. The compete level, IQ, and off-puck game are real strengths.

But here’s the honest assessment: when we drafted him, we were hoping for a Brayden Point or Mat Barzal-type ceiling — dynamic, undersized offensive creator who can run a line. That’s just not who Rossi is. He’s more in the Yanni Gourde mold than Barzal, and I don’t think that’s an insult. Gourde’s an effective two-way player who helps you win, but he’s not a guy you build your top line around.

His skating is good, not great — especially for his size — and the puck skills, while solid, aren’t elite. At this point, I think it’s fair to say he projects more as a middle-six center, maybe your 2C on a deep team. You can absolutely win with that, but you have to build around it properly. If you can get him locked up in the $7–7.5M range long-term, I’d be okay with that. If he prices out above that you have to look to move him, unfortunately. Not to mention he's your biggest trade chip for a true number one center, which I'll touch on more later.

Trenin

Just a complete whiff of a signing. He’s producing at below replacement level, the analytics are brutal, and he’s signed for three more years at nearly $3.5M. No impact, no upside. That’s a dead roster spot. Looked bad at the time, looks worse now. Can’t afford these types of mistakes if you’re trying to build a contender.

Boldy

Still bullish on Boldy. He’s such a smart player — strong puck protection, excellent passing touch, great shot (when on net) and the ability to find soft spots in coverage makes him dangerous. What he needs is his version of what Fiala got with him— a play driving running mate.

Once that happens? I think an 80–90 point season is absolutely in reach. The tools are there, the hockey sense is elite. Just needs the right partner.

Ek

Love this guy. He’s the heartbeat of the team, plays through everything, takes every tough matchup, and never cheats the game. The contract is a steal. Every contender wants a guy like him.

But… I think his offensive production in recent years was a bit inflated due to necessity — injuries, lack of depth, and his deployment on the top line / top PP unit. On a real contender, I think he’s a 45–55 point player who anchors your shutdown line and gives you elite defensive value. That’s not a 1C — it’s the best 3C in the league or a very good 2C. I’d be happy to have him on any roster… just not as the offensive centerpiece.

On the 1C Problem

This brings me to the big point — and one I’ve made before: we still don’t have that number one center you need to win a Cup.

Even if you lock up Rossi at a good number and keep Ek, neither guy projects to be a true 1C in the mold of a Point, Barkov, Eichel, or even a Robert Thomas. You can win a Stanley Cup with Ek and Rossi in the middle six — no question — but you’re not going deep without that true great centerpiece down the middle.

And history backs that up. Look at the last 10 Cup winners — They all had a clear-cut top-line center.

We need to fix this. And if that means packaging Rossi + 1st + Ohgren for Barzal or Thompson or whoever the target is, then so be it. You can’t cling to prospects forever if they’re not solving your biggest hole.

Kaprizov

We all know where this is going — it’s going to be expensive. Panarin got ~$11.6M AAV when the cap was $81.5M. That’d be nearly $14.8M on a $104M cap (which is the projected number for 2026–27). And the year after that? We’re probably looking at $114M+, conservatively. So yeah — the numbers are going to be crazy. Even with the projected cap increases over the next three years — jumping to $92M, then $104M, and potentially $114M — we’re still not hitting a true 50/50 revenue split between players and owners. That means the cap is actually understated relative to league earnings, and there’s still room for significant upward correction. In other words, these jumps we’re seeing now aren’t the end — they’re just the beginning. The cap is going to keep rising rapidly beyond the next three years, which only makes long-term deals for elite players like Kaprizov more palatable as time goes on.

Kaprizov’s agent definitely knows this. The league knows this. So when we talk about potentially paying him $15–16M AAV, you take that and run. Realistically his agent is going to start at or near 20M per year based on the cap inflation argument I just laid out. The number isn't going to be that high, but even if it's 17M you pay it. You have to keep players like this. If he walks, you’re back to square one — looking for that franchise forward for the next 15–20 years. You don't win a Stanley cup without a player like him. The only example I can really think of is St. Louis and even then Tarasenko was still in his prime. Florida has Barkov, Tkachkuk and Reinhart. Vegas had Eichel and Stone. Colorado had Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, and a career year Kadri. Tampa had Point, Kucherov, and Stakmos. Hell, I could make the argument that in this era oyu need 2 or 3 elite forwards to win the cup.

The Blueprint

The blueprint is simple:

• Sign Kaprizov no matter what
• Find a true 1C — pay whatever it takes
• Build smart around them with guys like Boldy, Ek, Faber, Buium, Rossi (if kept), Yurov, and Jiricek
• Avoid anchor contracts like Trenin
• Be hyper-efficient with cap space and asset management
• Be thoughtful in how you use draft capital. Leverage draft picks and prospects to acquire good players on good contracts.

Ah. So this is where TLDR comes from.

Just kidding.

Mostly.

 

[Wabit]

Ah. So this is where TLDR comes from.

Just kidding.

Mostly.

Trees Like Drinking Rain?

 

[Minnewildsota]

Trees Like Drinking Rain?

Tiny Legs Don’t Run

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

On the 1C Problem

This brings me to the big point — and one I’ve made before: we still don’t have that number one center you need to win a Cup.

Even if you lock up Rossi at a good number and keep Ek, neither guy projects to be a true 1C in the mold of a Point, Barkov, Eichel, or even a Robert Thomas. You can win a Stanley Cup with Ek and Rossi in the middle six — no question — but you’re not going deep without that true great centerpiece down the middle.

And history backs that up. Look at the last 10 Cup winners — They all had a clear-cut top-line center.

We need to fix this. And if that means packaging Rossi + 1st + Ohgren for Barzal or Thompson or whoever the target is, then so be it. You can’t cling to prospects forever if they’re not solving your biggest hole.

What's your risk tolerance on taking a shot at Pettersson? He's the only that I can see have that upside that could be available.

At would be a BIG bet considering his contract and the year he's having.

 

[DemidovSaveUs]

What's your risk tolerance on taking a shot at Pettersson? He's the only that I can see have that upside that could be available.

At would be a BIG bet considering his contract and the year he's having.

I’d have interest. I think you have to consider it. Someone smarter than me has to figure out why his play has declined so significantly and if it’s reversable. I would try and see if you could give up some extra assets to get some sort of retention. Him at 10M I’m a lot more inclined to take a shot on, but no team wants to retain for that long.

 

[AKL]

When it comes to guys like Trenin, Foligno, I wish Guerin was a lot better at recognizing his mistakes and moving on. Foligno especially isn't going to get better at this point, and he's largely a waste of money. Trenin could rebound a little but if he doesn't it's a complete waste of money. Those are the guys Guerin should be trying to move to free up cap and roster spots. I get that we need someone like Foligno, I just think you can find something better for the price, or something cheaper and just as good.

 

[BagHead]

When it comes to guys like Trenin, Foligno, I wish Guerin was a lot better at recognizing his mistakes and moving on. Foligno especially isn't going to get better at this point, and he's largely a waste of money. Trenin could rebound a little but if he doesn't it's a complete waste of money. Those are the guys Guerin should be trying to move to free up cap and roster spots. I get that we need someone like Foligno, I just think you can find something better for the price, or something cheaper and just as good.

Honestly, I think Guerin will be moving on in fairly short order. Most of their contracts lose their trade protection in the next 1-2 years, and I suspect that's by design.

 

[57special]

Agree on pretty much everything. The one major exception is Trenin - I think he’s been pretty decent of late.

I thought Faber was playing well up until the concussion. I don’t think he gotten enough rest since.

Boldy has been a letdown overall. Excellent player but his flashes of elite level play are not the normal we’d hope they do.

I think one possible way to address the C position is by dangling Rossi + Brodin as a package. Namely for Tage Thompson.

The benefit of moving Brodin is that it opens up a spot to add another big DFD which is much needed, IMO.

The last thing BUF needs is adding another LHD to Dahlin, Power, and Byram, among others. I also think that Thompson is the last forward they should trade.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The last thing BUF needs is adding another LHD to Dahlin, Power, and Byram, among others. I also think that Thompson is the last forward they should trade.

They need adults on their blueline more than anything, and both Dahlin and Brodin can play the right side.

 

[57special]

Finally figured out which username was saved from like a year and a half ago on HFBoards, lol. Haven’t had much time to post recently, but I’ve still been watching a ton of games — Wild and league-wide — and I’ve got some thoughts about where we’re at.

This season is what it is. I think most of us know we’re not seriously contending this year, so I’m already thinking ahead — big picture. Just wanted to drop some notes on a few players and what I think the future blueprint needs to look like.

Faber

I’ve been a little disappointed with Faber this year — not in a “he's been a trainwreck” kind of way, but in the sense that the ceiling might not be quite what we hoped. Last year, he looked like a potential elite shutdown D who could log huge minutes, drive play, and chip in on offense. But this year, I’m starting to wonder if he’s more of a very solid top-4 guy rather than a star.

He’s still playing big minutes (top 5 in the NHL in TOI per game among defensemen), which in itself is valuable. But the underlying numbers have dipped — his xGA/60 has climbed, and he’s making more mental mistakes in the D-zone than we saw last year. Offensively, the drop-off has been significant. Some of his points last year came from being stapled to a top PP unit — soon that role shifting to Zeev Buium (and it will), I don’t know how much production he’ll bring. He’s a great skater and he can transport the puck, but I don’t see much real offense with this player.

Still not worried about the contract — in a rising cap world, a 8.5M AAV will be completely manageable. But I do think we might need to adjust the projection here: strong top-4 guy, not franchise cornerstone 1D type most likely.

Spurgeon

I think Spurgeon has been incredibly underrated this season. In the games he’s played, he’s been the steadiest guy on the back end. Still excellent at denying entries, breaking up plays with his stick, and making quick first passes. He's been our most productive d on a per game basis.

That said, I still believe he’s probably going to get moved this summer. We need the cap space to revamp the bottom of the roster (and maybe top) and the captaincy has to be a big part of Guerin's sales pitch to Kaprizov.

Rossi

Man, I’ve got so much respect for what Rossi has done. After all the challenges he's faced, he’s clawed his way into being a legit top-6 NHL forward. That’s not easy. The compete level, IQ, and off-puck game are real strengths.

But here’s the honest assessment: when we drafted him, we were hoping for a Brayden Point or Mat Barzal-type ceiling — dynamic, undersized offensive creator who can run a line. That’s just not who Rossi is. He’s more in the Yanni Gourde mold than Barzal, and I don’t think that’s an insult. Gourde’s an effective two-way player who helps you win, but he’s not a guy you build your top line around.

His skating is good, not great — especially for his size — and the puck skills, while solid, aren’t elite. At this point, I think it’s fair to say he projects more as a middle-six center, maybe your 2C on a deep team. You can absolutely win with that, but you have to build around it properly. If you can get him locked up in the $7–7.5M range long-term, I’d be okay with that. If he prices out above that you have to look to move him, unfortunately. Not to mention he's your biggest trade chip for a true number one center, which I'll touch on more later.

Trenin

Just a complete whiff of a signing. He’s producing at below replacement level, the analytics are brutal, and he’s signed for three more years at nearly $3.5M. No impact, no upside. That’s a dead roster spot. Looked bad at the time, looks worse now. Can’t afford these types of mistakes if you’re trying to build a contender.

Boldy

Still bullish on Boldy. He’s such a smart player — strong puck protection, excellent passing touch, great shot (when on net) and the ability to find soft spots in coverage makes him dangerous. What he needs is his version of what Fiala got with him— a play driving running mate.

Once that happens? I think an 80–90 point season is absolutely in reach. The tools are there, the hockey sense is elite. Just needs the right partner.

Ek

Love this guy. He’s the heartbeat of the team, plays through everything, takes every tough matchup, and never cheats the game. The contract is a steal. Every contender wants a guy like him.

But… I think his offensive production in recent years was a bit inflated due to necessity — injuries, lack of depth, and his deployment on the top line / top PP unit. On a real contender, I think he’s a 45–55 point player who anchors your shutdown line and gives you elite defensive value. That’s not a 1C — it’s the best 3C in the league or a very good 2C. I’d be happy to have him on any roster… just not as the offensive centerpiece.

On the 1C Problem

This brings me to the big point — and one I’ve made before: we still don’t have that number one center you need to win a Cup.

Even if you lock up Rossi at a good number and keep Ek, neither guy projects to be a true 1C in the mold of a Point, Barkov, Eichel, or even a Robert Thomas. You can win a Stanley Cup with Ek and Rossi in the middle six — no question — but you’re not going deep without that true great centerpiece down the middle.

And history backs that up. Look at the last 10 Cup winners — They all had a clear-cut top-line center.

We need to fix this. And if that means packaging Rossi + 1st + Ohgren for Barzal or Thompson or whoever the target is, then so be it. You can’t cling to prospects forever if they’re not solving your biggest hole.

Kaprizov

We all know where this is going — it’s going to be expensive. Panarin got ~$11.6M AAV when the cap was $81.5M. That’d be nearly $14.8M on a $104M cap (which is the projected number for 2026–27). And the year after that? We’re probably looking at $114M+, conservatively. So yeah — the numbers are going to be crazy. Even with the projected cap increases over the next three years — jumping to $92M, then $104M, and potentially $114M — we’re still not hitting a true 50/50 revenue split between players and owners. That means the cap is actually understated relative to league earnings, and there’s still room for significant upward correction. In other words, these jumps we’re seeing now aren’t the end — they’re just the beginning. The cap is going to keep rising rapidly beyond the next three years, which only makes long-term deals for elite players like Kaprizov more palatable as time goes on.

Kaprizov’s agent definitely knows this. The league knows this. So when we talk about potentially paying him $15–16M AAV, you take that and run. Realistically his agent is going to start at or near 20M per year based on the cap inflation argument I just laid out. The number isn't going to be that high, but even if it's 17M you pay it. You have to keep players like this. If he walks, you’re back to square one — looking for that franchise forward for the next 15–20 years. You don't win a Stanley cup without a player like him. The only example I can really think of is St. Louis and even then Tarasenko was still in his prime. Florida has Barkov, Tkachkuk and Reinhart. Vegas had Eichel and Stone. Colorado had Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, and a career year Kadri. Tampa had Point, Kucherov, and Stakmos. Hell, I could make the argument that in this era oyu need 2 or 3 elite forwards to win the cup.

The Blueprint

The blueprint is simple:

• Sign Kaprizov no matter what
• Find a true 1C — pay whatever it takes
• Build smart around them with guys like Boldy, Ek, Faber, Buium, Rossi (if kept), Yurov, and Jiricek
• Avoid anchor contracts like Trenin
• Be hyper-efficient with cap space and asset management
• Be thoughtful in how you use draft capital. Leverage draft picks and prospects to acquire good players on good contracts.

In general, I think that Kaprizov is getting WAY overpaid in your scenario. Great player, when he is on the ice, but he might as well be Victor Rask if he isn't. His injury history is extremely worrying, given that he will be moving out of his prime years for the duration of his next contract. He has played a fraction of the games that his peers in the 2015 Draft has- I know it's partly because of him coming over late(another thought for me is his reluctance to come over till it suited him, giving the Wild next to no ELC cap relief), but also because he misses so many games.

If his agent insists on anything over 13M, I would reluctantly give BG the green light to move Kaprizov. His next contract won't kick in till he is 29 yo, when the vast majority of players, especially forwards, are past their prime. I don't want to be saddled paying this guy 15-20M/yr till he is 37 yo, and walking with a cane. Rantanen just signed for 12+M... that's a good number.

 

[AKL]

In general, I think that Kaprizov is getting WAY overpaid in your scenario. Great player, when he is on the ice, but he might as well be Victor Rask if he isn't. His injury history is extremely worrying, given that he will be moving out of his prime years for the duration of his next contract. He has played a fraction of the games that his peers in the 2015 Draft has- I know it's partly because of him coming over late(another thought for me is his reluctance to come over till it suited him, giving the Wild next to no ELC cap relief), but also because he misses so many games.

If his agent insists on anything over 13M, I would reluctantly give BG the green light to move Kaprizov. His next contract won't kick in till he is 29 yo, when the vast majority of players, especially forwards, are past their prime. I don't want to be saddled paying this guy 15-20M/yr till he is 37 yo, and walking with a cane. Rantanen just signed for 12+M... that's a good number.

I also don't think he gets over 15M, but I also don't think we have much of a choice if he asks for 15, unfortunately. Looking at what Colorado and Carolina both got for Rantanen...I think we're better off slightly overpaying Kaprizov.

 

[57special]

They need adults on their blueline more than anything, and both Dahlin and Brodin can play the right side.

They need adults in the FO more than anything. Brodin and Rossi would help, but not if they are losing Thompson, who is a legit #1C.

 

[AKL]

Might be worth noting they've been trying Thompson at wing lately and his faceoffs are abysmal. He might not actually be a center long term.

 

[57special]

I also don't think he gets over 15M, but I also don't think we have much of a choice if he asks for 15, unfortunately. Looking at what Colorado and Carolina both got for Rantanen...I think we're better off slightly overpaying Kaprizov.

You would hope that BG could get a better deal during the summer than Rantanen got at the TDL, but if Kap stays injured, or plays poorly during a first round exit GM's might be wary of paying much for him, especially if it becomes known that he wants 15+M.

So, I agree, he might not fetch a boatload of value, which also begs the question on whether we should be paying him such a salary given his injury problems. Kap played hardball with us during negotiations both to get him over, and on his first contract. I expect the same this time. Overpaying any player long term is not the answer...just ask Toronto. Cup winning teams usually win when their top players are on reasonable salaries, i.e. Kane, Bergeron, Kopitar, even Crosby. All of those guys got their big contracts after they won, and won big. Kap has never won a damn thing. Not even close.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You would hope that BG could get a better deal during the summer than Rantanen got at the TDL, but if Kap stays injured, or plays poorly during a first round exit GM's might be wary of paying much for him, especially if it becomes known that he wants 15+M.

So, I agree, he might not fetch a boatload of value, which also begs the question on whether we should be paying him such a salary given his injury problems. Kap played hardball with us during negotiations both to get him over, and on his first contract. I expect the same this time. Overpaying any player long term is not the answer...just ask Toronto. Cup winning teams usually win when their top players are on reasonable salaries, i.e. Kane, Bergeron, Kopitar, even Crosby. All of those guys got their big contracts after they won, and won big. Kap has never won a damn thing. Not even close.

Because the alternative also sucks.

 

[DemidovSaveUs]

In general, I think that Kaprizov is getting WAY overpaid in your scenario. Great player, when he is on the ice, but he might as well be Victor Rask if he isn't. His injury history is extremely worrying, given that he will be moving out of his prime years for the duration of his next contract. He has played a fraction of the games that his peers in the 2015 Draft has- I know it's partly because of him coming over late(another thought for me is his reluctance to come over till it suited him, giving the Wild next to no ELC cap relief), but also because he misses so many games.

If his agent insists on anything over 13M, I would reluctantly give BG the green light to move Kaprizov. His next contract won't kick in till he is 29 yo, when the vast majority of players, especially forwards, are past their prime. I don't want to be saddled paying this guy 15-20M/yr till he is 37 yo, and walking with a cane. Rantanen just signed for 12+M... that's a good number.

In a vacuum I agree with setting a number with Kaprizov and moving on if he won’t take it, but the reality also is that if you take Kaprizov off this team we’re so far from contending it’s not even funny. Maybe in year one of being a GM who is willing to enter into a rebuild it would be different. Guerin will be in year 8 next year (crazy right?), and Leipold is Leipold. Moving on from Kaprizov and then continuing to try and compete with this roster would be so unserious.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

In a vacuum I agree with setting a number with Kaprizov and moving on if he won’t take it, but the reality also is that if you take Kaprizov off this team we’re so far from contending it’s not even funny. Maybe in year one of being a GM who is willing to enter into a rebuild it would be different. Guerin will be in year 8 next year (crazy right?), and Leipold is Leipold. Moving on from Kaprizov and then continuing to try and compete with this roster would be so unserious.

Year 7, but still crazy.

 

[DemidovSaveUs]

Year 7, but still crazy.

Yeah, still crazy. How has he done in your opinion?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I've talked myself into Pettersson (if it comes to that). There are reasons why probably shouldn't do it, but there were reasons why we were against Eichel too. At some point, a big swing is needed. Not going to bloop single our way to a Cup.

 

[AKL]

Not going to bloop single our way to a Cup.

 

[57special]