Finally figured out which username was saved from like a year and a half ago on HFBoards, lol. Haven’t had much time to post recently, but I’ve still been watching a ton of games — Wild and league-wide — and I’ve got some thoughts about where we’re at.
This season is what it is. I think most of us know we’re not seriously contending this year, so I’m already thinking ahead — big picture. Just wanted to drop some notes on a few players and what I think the future blueprint needs to look like.
Faber
I’ve been a little disappointed with Faber this year — not in a “he's been a trainwreck” kind of way, but in the sense that the ceiling might not be quite what we hoped. Last year, he looked like a potential elite shutdown D who could log huge minutes, drive play, and chip in on offense. But this year, I’m starting to wonder if he’s more of a very solid top-4 guy rather than a star.
He’s still playing big minutes (top 5 in the NHL in TOI per game among defensemen), which in itself is valuable. But the underlying numbers have dipped — his xGA/60 has climbed, and he’s making more mental mistakes in the D-zone than we saw last year. Offensively, the drop-off has been significant. Some of his points last year came from being stapled to a top PP unit — soon that role shifting to Zeev Buium (and it will), I don’t know how much production he’ll bring. He’s a great skater and he can transport the puck, but I don’t see much real offense with this player.
Still not worried about the contract — in a rising cap world, a 8.5M AAV will be completely manageable. But I do think we might need to adjust the projection here: strong top-4 guy, not franchise cornerstone 1D type most likely.
Agreed somewhat on Faber, though i think that you overestimate the amount of top 2(i.e. best 64 Dmen)Dmen in the league. Also, Faber has been overplayed, clearly. Mental and physical fatigue make for mistakes. I am happy with his play, in general, but i have seen the same mistakes you have.
Spurgeon
I think Spurgeon has been incredibly underrated this season. In the games he’s played, he’s been the steadiest guy on the back end. Still excellent at denying entries, breaking up plays with his stick, and making quick first passes. He's been our most productive d on a per game basis.
That said, I still believe he’s probably going to get moved this summer. We need the cap space to revamp the bottom of the roster (and maybe top) and the captaincy has to be a big part of Guerin's sales pitch to Kaprizov.
His comeback from what appeared to be a very serious, and potentially career ending surgery has been hopeful. Skating hasn't taken a hit, or not much, anyway. Overall level of play is still vg, and his hockey IQ is still high as ever.
Rossi
Man, I’ve got so much respect for what Rossi has done. After all the challenges he's faced, he’s clawed his way into being a legit top-6 NHL forward. That’s not easy. The compete level, IQ, and off-puck game are real strengths.
But here’s the honest assessment: when we drafted him, we were hoping for a Brayden Point or Mat Barzal-type ceiling — dynamic, undersized offensive creator who can run a line. That’s just not who Rossi is. He’s more in the Yanni Gourde mold than Barzal, and I don’t think that’s an insult. Gourde’s an effective two-way player who helps you win, but he’s not a guy you build your top line around.
His skating is good, not great — especially for his size — and the puck skills, while solid, aren’t elite. At this point, I think it’s fair to say he projects more as a middle-six center, maybe your 2C on a deep team. You can absolutely win with that, but you have to build around it properly. If you can get him locked up in the $7–7.5M range long-term, I’d be okay with that. If he prices out above that you have to look to move him, unfortunately. Not to mention he's your biggest trade chip for a true number one center, which I'll touch on more later.
Agree on everything.
Trenin
Just a complete whiff of a signing. He’s producing at below replacement level, the analytics are brutal, and he’s signed for three more years at nearly $3.5M. No impact, no upside. That’s a dead roster spot. Looked bad at the time, looks worse now. Can’t afford these types of mistakes if you’re trying to build a contender.
He is maddening because next to no puck skills and doesn't shoot the puck. I have noticed him being better in the latter half of the season, though. I would rather two Duhaime's than him. Still, not a huge mistake of a signing. He simply isn't paid enough, nor does he play an important role enough, to matter much.
Boldy
Still bullish on Boldy. He’s such a smart player — strong puck protection, excellent passing touch, great shot (when on net) and the ability to find soft spots in coverage makes him dangerous. What he needs is his version of what Fiala got with him— a play driving running mate.
Once that happens? I think an 80–90 point season is absolutely in reach. The tools are there, the hockey sense is elite. Just needs the right partner.
He's fine. I'm actually happy that he makes some poor plays and has bad games. means he has more room to improve. The guy is playing on an island, with kaprizov out.
Ek
Love this guy. He’s the heartbeat of the team, plays through everything, takes every tough matchup, and never cheats the game. The contract is a steal. Every contender wants a guy like him.
But… I think his offensive production in recent years was a bit inflated due to necessity — injuries, lack of depth, and his deployment on the top line / top PP unit. On a real contender, I think he’s a 45–55 point player who anchors your shutdown line and gives you elite defensive value. That’s not a 1C — it’s the best 3C in the league or a very good 2C. I’d be happy to have him on any roster… just not as the offensive centerpiece.
yup
On the 1C Problem
This brings me to the big point — and one I’ve made before: we still don’t have that number one center you need to win a Cup.
Even if you lock up Rossi at a good number and keep Ek, neither guy projects to be a true 1C in the mold of a Point, Barkov, Eichel, or even a Robert Thomas. You can win a Stanley Cup with Ek and Rossi in the middle six — no question — but you’re not going deep without that true great centerpiece down the middle.
And history backs that up. Look at the last 10 Cup winners — They all had a clear-cut top-line center.
We need to fix this. And if that means packaging Rossi + 1st + Ohgren for Barzal or Thompson or whoever the target is, then so be it. You can’t cling to prospects forever if they’re not solving your biggest hole.
Was about to say that you can't trade for these guys, then realized that both Eichel, and ROR were acquired in trade. Eichel was acquired for Tuch(one of most overrated players in the league, IMO), Krebs(fringe player), a late 1st, and a 2nd. It's not actually that far from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and Hunt that we paid for Jiricek, LOL. I like Barzal, but he is a low level #1. Not sure that he is all that much of an upgrade from Rossi(Barzal is playing a lot of wing now) going forward. His AAV is more than Rossi's, and he is 5 years older. TT... like him, just don't see Buf letting him go.
Kaprizov
We all know where this is going — it’s going to be expensive. Panarin got ~$11.6M AAV when the cap was $81.5M. That’d be nearly $14.8M on a $104M cap (which is the projected number for 2026–27). And the year after that? We’re probably looking at $114M+, conservatively. So yeah — the numbers are going to be crazy. Even with the projected cap increases over the next three years — jumping to $92M, then $104M, and potentially $114M — we’re still not hitting a true 50/50 revenue split between players and owners. That means the cap is actually understated relative to league earnings, and there’s still room for significant upward correction. In other words, these jumps we’re seeing now aren’t the end — they’re just the beginning. The cap is going to keep rising rapidly beyond the next three years, which only makes long-term deals for elite players like Kaprizov more palatable as time goes on.
Kaprizov’s agent definitely knows this. The league knows this. So when we talk about potentially paying him $15–16M AAV, you take that and run. Realistically his agent is going to start at or near 20M per year based on the cap inflation argument I just laid out. The number isn't going to be that high, but even if it's 17M you pay it. You have to keep players like this. If he walks, you’re back to square one — looking for that franchise forward for the next 15–20 years. You don't win a Stanley cup without a player like him. The only example I can really think of is St. Louis and even then Tarasenko was still in his prime. Florida has Barkov, Tkachkuk and Reinhart. Vegas had Eichel and Stone. Colorado had Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, and a career year Kadri. Tampa had Point, Kucherov, and Stakmos. Hell, I could make the argument that in this era oyu need 2 or 3 elite forwards to win the cup.
Kaprizov is going to be very expensive to sign, has shown signs of being injury prone, and is leaving his prime. Wild will regret giving him a 14-15M contract. He isn't one of the top forwards in the league once you factor in his inability to stay on the ice. It's a shame, because I love his game, but I can't let that blind me to where he is likely heading.
The Blueprint
The blueprint is simple:
- Sign Kaprizov no matter what
Disagree, obviously
- Find a true 1C — pay whatever it takes
Easier said than done, but yeah... I think that VAN might be looking to tear it down. EP40 is a perfect buy low opportunity.
- Build smart around them with guys like Boldy, Ek, Faber, Buium, Rossi (if kept), Yurov, and Jiricek
Does build smart mean signing kap at any price? Is Guerin capable of building smart, or at least, smarter than an average GM? He seems to do some smart things, others, not so smart, but in general, has not delivered any results...just a lot of bluster.
- Avoid anchor contracts like Trenin
As I said above, not great, but not a team wrecker, like the Parise/suter contracts(and possibly, a 120M Kap contra
ct?)
- Be hyper-efficient with cap space and asset management
We actually aren't too bad, just f***ed from contracts signed 12 years ago, and a NHL decision.
- Be thoughtful in how you use draft capital. Leverage draft picks and prospects to acquire good players on good contracts.
How do you feel about the Jiricek trade? In general, trading away the future to aid the now is something that you do when you have a "no doubt' contender, with some terrific players in their prime, like CO. I don't think that we are in that position. To me, the trade only makes sense if you are prepared to trade spurgeon, but i see zero evidence that he is prepared to do so.
BG needs to provide clarity as to the team direction this summer, then results next season. This treading water thing has gone on long enough. If he decides to move on from Kap, then I also want at least one of Brodin or Spurgeon to be moved also. Love them as players, but they are too old to be part of a rebuild. Zucc can go, also, though I don't know that he would fetch much. I would even consider moving JEE as part of a pkg for a true #1C, and keeping Rossi instead, if we can keep him at a reasonable rate. Love JEE, and his contract is great, but he's got a lot of hard miles on his body. Most of the rest of the player simply aren't that important. The Brazeau trade was incredibly worrisome, to me, and caused me to doubt his ability to assess the value of players.
Iowa has to be fixed. The failure of the team is on Guerin. The rookie coach has been an abysmal failure, and it is screwing with the development of our prospects. Just hope he hasn't done too much damage.
Oh, and next, the Hynes watch begins.
GDT: HFBoards GDT 04/01/25: 10 Games sponsored by Uber Eats
