Forslund contract negotiations

[Sens1Canes2]

Just a reminder: $1.1b at a 7% rate of return earns $77m. He likely lost a year's worth of returns on the AAF, nothing more.

Now, how TopGolf is faring during this climate of "stay the f*** at home" -- it was estimated to IPO at a $4b valuation pre-COVID, which has very likely changed -- is a much more interesting question. As of 4 days ago they're still working on the IPO, apparently:

Dallas-based Topgolf tees up IPO talks with possible merger into blank-check company

I’m still mystified how there isn’t one here yet AND there’s a DriveShack (which is TopGolf’s red headed stepchild).

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Why is it A or B? You assume he has “this fixed amount” to spend. We know this isn’t the case.

It's not that TD CAN'T spend on both (team and off ice) it's that he values them very differently and everything needs to be quantified. If TD could get away with not having a pbp team, arena announcer and replacing the food services staff with vending machines he probably would.

As @tarheelhockey posted, his goal is to increase the value of the Hurricanes franchise and he sees the best way to do that in a measurable sense is to improve the on ice product. In terms of pbp guys, John Forslund is the Connor McDavid of it. He's the man. The problem is he could be the the worst pbp guy in the league and it likely doesn't make a tangible difference with regards to how the team is valued. It sucks because having a good pbp crew does make for a more enjoyable viewing/listening experience but if Jack Edwards became the pbp guy at league minimum (whatever that is for announcers) it likely wouldn't move the needle in either direction. People want to watch the hockey game for the hockey and they'll put up with a crappy pbp guy to do so. Having John Forslund as our pbp guy doesn't attract new fans who weren't already going to watch anyway. Making the playoffs year after year and maybe winning another cup will.

I could be wrong about all of this but this is my line of thinking on what TD is doing. He's obviously given the marketing and social media team the go ahead and drum up business with various campaigns and riding the jerk wave and all that. These types of initiatives are doing more to reach perspective fans and grow the Carolina Hurricanes brand a lot more than John Forslund calling games is. Again, it sucks because JF is great but he's a luxury and not one that can measurably equate his GOATness to adding value to the brand.

 

[tarheelhockey]

No. Winning is of utmost importance. You are looking at this as a binary issue. Either spend $ on winning or $ for "bells and whistles". Why not both.

Why is it A or B? You assume he has “this fixed amount” to spend. We know this isn’t the case.

The binary issue is whether or not the investment reaps dividends.

The hard truth here is that John Forslund doesn't have a significant economic value compared to his replacement. I don't mean he isn't better than his replacement, but he is not going to drive revenue by being better. Very very very very very few people base their decision to watch a Carolina Hurricanes game on whether it's John Forslund or Mike Maniscalco in the booth. That's just the reality of how sports TV works. The product they're selling is the game, not the PBP guy.

So if Dundon has $100K to spend, you better believe it is a binary choice for him whether to invest in an aspect of the organization that will make the money back, or not.

Why was TD so set on a new video board? (And was a bit of a dick when the Authority said he couldn't get the monster he wanted immediately?) Is that not a bell and whistle? Does having a new board make Scott Darling a Vezina candidate? Oh that's right; it's not coming out of his pocket.

But the video board actually does drive revenue. Not only is it a very significant factor in sponsorship pitches, it also impacts things as fundamental as whether big-ticket bands will play here.

Naturally Dundon wanted the CA to pay for those upgrades. That's exactly what the CA's budget is intended for. Naturally he stuck it to them when they balked, the entire concept of buying into Gale Force was so that he could control the arena and leverage those upgrades. It's fundamental to his business model and why he owns the team, and that will be true of any owner who buys in to PNC.

 

[Unsustainable]

Hmm, just thumbed through this thread a little. Ok then,

 

[A Star is Burns]

Hmm, just thumbed through this thread a little. Ok then,

If you liked this thread, wait til you thumb through the CLT one.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

If you liked this thread, wait til you thumb through the CLT one.

Does thumbing the CLT have anything to do with beating the D?

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

The binary issue is whether or not the investment reaps dividends.

The hard truth here is that John Forslund doesn't have a significant economic value compared to his replacement. I don't mean he isn't better than his replacement, but he is not going to drive revenue by being better. Very very very very very few people base their decision to watch a Carolina Hurricanes game on whether it's John Forslund or Mike Maniscalco in the booth. That's just the reality of how sports TV works. The product they're selling is the game, not the PBP guy.

So if Dundon has $100K to spend, you better believe it is a binary choice for him whether to invest in an aspect of the organization that will make the money back, or not.



But the video board actually does drive revenue. Not only is it a very significant factor in sponsorship pitches, it also impacts things as fundamental as whether big-ticket bands will play here.

Naturally Dundon wanted the CA to pay for those upgrades. That's exactly what the CA's budget is intended for. Naturally he stuck it to them when they balked, the entire concept of buying into Gale Force was so that he could control the arena and leverage those upgrades. It's fundamental to his business model and why he owns the team, and that will be true of any owner who buys in to PNC.

I understand everything you say about TD and his philosophy re ownership of a sports franchise (and most everything in his life I would assume). Trust me, I've pored over balance sheets and p&l's aplenty.

Has he improved the Canes and added to fan pleasure? Of course! I've just been pointing out the negatives of his purely "bottom line" approach to owning the Canes as well as a forwarning of what negative impact this may have in the future. The JF contract deal has made me vocalize what I have seen coming for a while. He is not a benevolent owner as is his right.

My 2 cents.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I understand everything you say about TD and his philosophy re ownership of a sports franchise (and most everything in his life I would assume). Trust me, I've pored over balance sheets and p&l's aplenty.

Has he improved the Canes and added to fan pleasure? Of course! I've just been pointing out the negatives of his purely "bottom line" approach to owning the Canes as well as a forwarning of what negative impact this may have in the future. The JF contract deal has made me vocalize what I have seen coming for a while. He is not a benevolent owner as is his right.

My 2 cents.

I do hear you about the "what happens when we aren't winning and fan happiness is based on other things" aspect. My guess is he plans to be gone by then.

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

I do hear you about the "what happens when we aren't winning and fan happiness is based on other things" aspect. My guess is he plans to be gone by then.

Exactly. Could be sooner than later. Then what?

 

[Lempo]

The binary issue is whether or not the investment reaps dividends.

The hard truth here is that John Forslund doesn't have a significant economic value compared to his replacement. I don't mean he isn't better than his replacement, but he is not going to drive revenue by being better. Very very very very very few people base their decision to watch a Carolina Hurricanes game on whether it's John Forslund or Mike Maniscalco in the booth. That's just the reality of how sports TV works. The product they're selling is the game, not the PBP guy.

So if Dundon has $100K to spend, you better believe it is a binary choice for him whether to invest in an aspect of the organization that will make the money back, or not.



But the video board actually does drive revenue. Not only is it a very significant factor in sponsorship pitches, it also impacts things as fundamental as whether big-ticket bands will play here.

Naturally Dundon wanted the CA to pay for those upgrades. That's exactly what the CA's budget is intended for. Naturally he stuck it to them when they balked, the entire concept of buying into Gale Force was so that he could control the arena and leverage those upgrades. It's fundamental to his business model and why he owns the team, and that will be true of any owner who buys in to PNC.

Technically someone might be more prone to go to the actual game if the pbp guy is worse than John (=someone else than John). We know we have been spoiled in that regard.

I mean, in Finland, by law the Finland games of the IIHF tourney has to be shown on a free-to-view channel. The solution of the rights holding broadcaster who wants revenue from the games: they broadcast the freeview games with an annoying pbp guy, and have "see Finland games with pbp by the hot shit guy" as a selling point of their pay channel.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I do hear you about the "what happens when we aren't winning and fan happiness is based on other things" aspect. My guess is he plans to be gone by then.

My guess is he doesn’t plan on not winning, at least for quite some time. He may be wrong in that thought, but that’s what I think he believes, and I hope he’s right.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I mean, the NHL is seen as a gate driven league, so focusing efforts on in arena experience and on ice product makes sense. Even making the at home product worse makes some sense to that end.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Exactly. Could be sooner than later. Then what?

With Aho, TT, svech, Necas, Slavin, Pesce, Trocheck, etc...and a deep prospect pool, he probably doesn’t see a “sooner rather than later” scenario. He could be wrong, but the team is more on the upswing vs downswing.

 

[Unsustainable]

If you liked this thread, wait til you thumb through the CLT one.

I wrote that one

 

[A Star is Burns]

I wrote that one

I know, but don't ruin my stupidity with your facts

 

[Unsustainable]

I know, but don't ruin my stupidity with your facts

sexist

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

I mean, the NHL is seen as a gate driven league, so focusing efforts on in arena experience and on ice product makes sense. Even making the at home product worse makes some sense to that end.

Yes in normal times. When will the gates be reopening? NHL.com only shows Global challenge games in Europe this fall. Evryone is hoping by first of the year. Maybe, maybe not. And when they open will there be restrictions? If covid is still around I'm sure not going. TV revenue will be more important than ever.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Yes in normal times. When will the gates be reopening? NHL.com only shows Global challenge games in Europe this fall. Evryone is hoping by first of the year. Maybe, maybe not. And when they open will there be restrictions? If covid is still around I'm sure not going. TV revenue will be more important than ever.

But even for eternity if fans never get to go to games again it doesn't matter who the pbp guy is. Hockey fans and Canes fans will still watch the games on TV or online if Stevie Wonder is the pbp guy. Everyone knows that John is the best in the business but he doesn't attract viewers that weren't already going to watch the game anyway. Replacing him with Mike or whoever is a downgrade in the product and service but it will cost less and the Canes aren't going to lose viewership or ad revenue or anything like that over it.

 

[AD Skinner]

Does thumbing the CLT have anything to do with beating the D?

If you're good at one, you might do less of the other

 

[tarheelhockey]

if Stevie Wonder is the pbp guy.

*scribbles notes*

 

[A Star is Burns]

Yes in normal times. When will the gates be reopening? NHL.com only shows Global challenge games in Europe this fall. Evryone is hoping by first of the year. Maybe, maybe not. And when they open will there be restrictions? If covid is still around I'm sure not going. TV revenue will be more important than ever.

Do you honestly think keeping John will increase the revenue on a TV deal even in these circumstances? Hell, I'd imagine a lot of that is negotiated already at this point.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Yes in normal times. When will the gates be reopening? NHL.com only shows Global challenge games in Europe this fall. Evryone is hoping by first of the year. Maybe, maybe not. And when they open will there be restrictions? If covid is still around I'm sure not going. TV revenue will be more important than ever.

i'll believe it when i see it but there you go

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

i'll believe it when i see it but there you go

Can’t speak for the US but 0% chance that there’s fans in arenas for November games in Canada. Universities are going to be essentially online for the first semester. Major symphony orchestras have already cancelled their fall and spring seasons.

Right now in Toronto we aren’t allowed to have gatherings of larger than 50. This will increase over the next few months but not to the point where you’re able to fill a 20k arena.

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

i'll believe it when i see it but there you go

Thanks for the info. I agree with your assessment.

 

[cptjeff]

I mean, the UK just came out with a vaccine candidate that should be fully effective if all the standard factors that determine immunity apply to this virus. If that pans out the rest of the way, it's very conceivable that things could reopen very quickly for those certified to be vaccinated. Will people actually return to games immediately? I know I won't, but it's not absurd to think that the timeline might allow for them to at least allow full arenas, even if few will actually fill.

Lots of big ifs in there involving distribution (and that is a massive fing challenge, though I imagine Canada will manage better than us, what with the free and convenient healthcare and a generally competent government) and whether or not the antivax nuts screw things up somehow.