Speculation: Florida's pick - Watch thread - (Upon request, thread title change lol)

[Galchenyuk15]

I think I’d try and move Bennett over reinhart to get more flexibility

I would do the same and try to keep Barkov-Tkachuk-Reinhart-Lundell together the longer I can.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Very low chance

So what. 2nd last has 13.5%. Last has 25.5%.

Two darts in the top 10 is a good situation. If the Habs get 4th last and the Panthers pick is 8th last, our % is 15.5% and that would give us the 2nd best odds.

Two separate darts is better than one IMO.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I would do the same and try to keep Barkov-Tkachuk-Reinhart-Lundell together the longer I can.

Panthers have issues on D and they are cap tight. Good luck fixing those issues while the forwards are in their prime.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

The odds are still very small.

If you buy a lottery ticket and I buy two, I have the best chance of winning the jackpot. My odds are still a long shot.

On my very first try! Habs picking 1st OA confirmed

 

[xX SEYF Xx]

View attachment 633020
On my very first try! Habs picking 1st OA confirmed

Hold my beer

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Hold my beer


View attachment 633032

 

[Habs Halifax]

I wonder how many more games the Panthers play before their core gets deflated and gives up on the playoffs? They are not there yet but might be in another month. They already know they have a big hill to climb

 

[Colezuki]

Hold my beer


View attachment 633032

Would be permenantly at full chub for the next decade

 

[BergevinBurner]

They have the Avs and Knights coming up. Hopefully that means 2 losses and they're back to being 8-10 points out of the 2nd wildcard by the weekend.

 

[Colezuki]

I wonder how many more games the Panthers play before their core gets deflated and gives up on the playoffs? They are not there yet but might be in another month. They already know they have a big hill to climb

I mapped it out, by feb 14th they'll have to make a serious call to be sellers or not

this is their schedule and most likely results by game until the All Star break
- Avs - L but a point lets say
- Knights - L
- Canucks - W
- Sabres - W but it could be close
- Leafs (b2b) - L
- Habs - W
- Wild - L
- Rangers - One Loss against either the rangers or pens, W
- Pens (b2b) - L
- Kings - W
- Bruins (b2b) - L

I expect them to go 5-4-2 which would put them at 23 - 23 - 6 or 52 points at game 52. Which means to get out of there funk at that point they need at least 44 points in the last 30 which is a PPG percentage of nearly 0.75. For reference that's what the bruins have done YTD.

I think unless there in striking distance of the WC they'll be sellers in feb and the record will start to slide even harder.

 

[LaP]

So what. 2nd last has 13.5%. Last has 25.5%.

Two darts in the top 10 is a good situation. If the Habs get 4th last and the Panthers pick is 8th last, our % is 15.5% and that would give us the 2nd best odds.

Two separate darts is better than one IMO.

If you give me 10% chances to win a million i'd drop 1000$ on a ticket. And this is coming from someone who never buy lottery tickets because well it's a waste of money.

I'm not sure what's the point of people who say 10% chances is not a lot bla bla bla. It is a lot specially if the prize is God. Everyone and their mom know you don't have 100% chances to win anymore. I'll take the 10% instead of the 2-3%.

I mapped it out, by feb 14th they'll have to make a serious call to be sellers or not

this is their schedule and most likely results by game until the All Star break
- Avs - L but a point lets say
- Knights - L
- Canucks - W
- Sabres - W but it could be close
- Leafs (b2b) - L
- Habs - W
- Wild - L
- Rangers - One Loss against either the rangers or pens, W
- Pens (b2b) - L
- Kings - W
- Bruins (b2b) - L

I expect them to go 5-4-2 which would put them at 23 - 23 - 6 or 52 points at game 52. Which means to get out of there funk at that point they need at least 44 points in the last 30 which is a PPG percentage of nearly 0.75. For reference that's what the bruins have done YTD.

I think unless there in striking distance of the WC they'll be sellers in feb and the record will start to slide even harder.

They have nothing to sell. That's the problem. And their team is too good for a complete teardown. They'll do nothing outside of selling Gudas which wont really move any neddle and will try to find cap space next summer.

 

[BergevinBurner]

Assuming the playoff cutoff for the 2nd wildcard spot ends up being 96 points, then if the Panthers lose their next 2 games against the Avs and Knights then they'll have to play 0.718 hockey for the rest of the season to make it.

As it stands now, only Boston has a record above 0.718. So if Florida loses the next 2 they probably know they're shafted.

 

[tooji]

If you give me 10% chances to win a million i'd drop 1000$ on a ticket. And this is coming from someone who never buy lottery tickets because well it's a waste of money.

I'm not sure what's the point of people who say 10% chances is not a lot bla bla bla. It is a lot specially if the prize is God. Everyone and their mom know you don't have 100% chances to win anymore. I'll take the 10% instead of the 2-3%.


They have nothing to sell. That's the problem. And their team is too good for a complete teardown. They'll do nothing outside of selling Gudas which wont really move any neddle and will try to find cap space next summer.

I mean that’s just basic stats. Expected value of a random variable with 10% odds of winning $1 million (and 90% to win $0) is (0.10 * 1million) = $100k. So it is logical to pay 1 grand for those odds.

 

[MTL-rules]

So what. 2nd last has 13.5%. Last has 25.5%.

Two darts in the top 10 is a good situation. If the Habs get 4th last and the Panthers pick is 8th last, our % is 15.5% and that would give us the 2nd best odds.

Two separate darts is better than one IMO.

1, 2 or 5 darts won't change the odds... The only good thing is that the odds are on 2 horses... If one fails (meaning starts winning), we can still bet on the other one

Let's hope that both the habs and Panthers keep losing... But one of the 2 is still good...

 

[LaP]

I mean that’s just basic stats. Expected value of a random variable with 10% odds of winning $1 million (and 90% to win $0) is (0.10 * 1million) = $100k. So it is logical to pay 1 grand for those odds.

It's also logical to want 10% to win God instead of 2%

10% chances to win something of incredible value is huge, You never got those odds in real life unless the prize is of small value. Your odds to win anythying of value like dunno a RTX 4090 in real life are usually in the 0.1% and less, significantly less.

 

[Colezuki]

If you give me 10% chances to win a million i'd drop 1000$ on a ticket. And this is coming from someone who never buy lottery tickets because well it's a waste of money.

I'm not sure what's the point of people who say 10% chances is not a lot bla bla bla. It is a lot specially if the prize is God. Everyone and their mom know you don't have 100% chances to win anymore. I'll take the 10% instead of the 2-3%.


They have nothing to sell. That's the problem. And their team is too good for a complete teardown. They'll do nothing outside of selling Gudas which wont really move any neddle and will try to find cap space next summer.

Not True, Serevalli speculated that there likely to sell a forward (reinhart or Bennett) in addition to Gudas in order to provide more balance on the cap to there D.

 

[sandviper]

View attachment 633020
On my very first try! Habs picking 1st OA confirmed

I landed 1OVA on my first try last season. I haven't tried yet... afraid to tempt fate.

 

[salbutera]

Not True, Serevalli speculated that there likely to sell a forward (reinhart or Bennett) in addition to Gudas in order to provide more balance on the cap to there D.

Until I see it I won’t believe it, Fla owner Vinny Viola isn’t a patient human to begin with…

 

[SwiftyHab]

Assuming the playoff cutoff for the 2nd wildcard spot ends up being 96 points, then if the Panthers lose their next 2 games against the Avs and Knights then they'll have to play 0.718 hockey for the rest of the season to make it.

As it stands now, only Boston has a record above 0.718. So if Florida loses the next 2 they probably know they're shafted.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Not True, Serevalli speculated that there likely to sell a forward (reinhart or Bennett) in addition to Gudas in order to provide more balance on the cap to there D.

They could trade Reinhart or Bennett but will it be a cap move only where none comes back? Lets say they are able to do it for futures. Then what? How do you add top 4D that turns the needle when so many teams are after those kinds of improvements?

Easier said than done.

 

[jaffy27]

Don’t know about you guys, but I see 15 losses in there for the Panthers

GP	Date	Time		Opponent	GF	GA			W	L	OL	Streak	Att.	LOG	Notes
42	2023-01-10	9:30 PM	@	Colorado Avalanche
43	2023-01-12	10:00 PM	@	Vegas Golden Knights
44	2023-01-14	7:00 PM		Vancouver Canucks
45	2023-01-16	1:00 PM	@	Buffalo Sabres
46	2023-01-17	7:00 PM	@	Toronto Maple Leafs
47	2023-01-19	7:00 PM	@	Montreal Canadiens
48	2023-01-21	6:00 PM		Minnesota Wild
49	2023-01-23	7:00 PM	@	New York Rangers
50	2023-01-24	7:00 PM	@	Pittsburgh Penguins
51	2023-01-27	7:00 PM		Los Angeles Kings
52	2023-01-28	6:00 PM		Boston Bruins
53	2023-02-06	7:00 PM		Tampa Bay Lightning
54	2023-02-09	7:00 PM		San Jose Sharks
55	2023-02-11	6:00 PM		Colorado Avalanche
56	2023-02-13	8:00 PM	@	Minnesota Wild
57	2023-02-14	8:00 PM	@	St. Louis Blues
58	2023-02-16	7:00 PM	@	Washington Capitals
59	2023-02-18	2:00 PM	@	Nashville Predators

 

[xX SEYF Xx]

Ekblad got in the score sheet only twice in the last 14 games
he went -13 in that span
he not back at 100% and playin hurt for sure, was seen wearing non contact jerseys at practice few times,
once they realize it's not worth trying anymore, expect Ekblad to take some rest

 

[smirob]

Of course Bedard is the dream..but if we have a top 5 pick with our own and a top 10 with Florida's I will be ecstatic.

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

Florida really f***ed with there chemistry didn't they losing Hubs and Weeger. They really shouldn't be this bad to be honest.

 

[KevSkillz4]

Of course Bedard is the dream..but if we have a top 5 pick with our own and a top 10 with Florida's I will be ecstatic.

I will be ecstatic with a top 8 pick from Habs pick and a top 14 from Florida.

5-8 range, Habs can add a very good player like Benson, Yager, Dvorsky and Smith. That's huge. Even if isn't Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson or Michkov. Top 14 from Florida it's also very huge for the future of Habs.