Well not necessarily. If Sokolov had made it, he would have been a top 6 goal scorer with size.
Pezzetta met his maximum upside, there was nothing else there. It's rare someone like him actually meets the ceiling of his ability.
You are almost always better off drafting skilled players who reinvent themselves as it goes. Gorton talked about it in the previous draft video, even in bottom 6ers, there's history of production.
Yes, but that history of production usually continues into whatever CHL league, or other that player goes into.
Pezzetta's production slowed as he entered the OHL and already changed his play style.
It's not impossible for players who produce less to change their role sooner and potentially easier to change how they're perceived at a younger age.
A player like Chris Terry who's also a top producing in the A can't hang in the NHL because he's got nothing else to offer and his skill isn't enough to be a regular NHLer.
Now, obviously skilled junior players have changed their game and succeeded in the NHL, but it's the same for everyone. Your lower drafted player might just not be able to change. The probability of any player being useful in the NHL is low.
Corey Locke big point producing amounted to nothing in the NHL mean while Nate Thompson just had a nice, long career and just retired.
You can find evidence of the inverse where a player produced less, but had the intangibles and went on to do nothing.
The good players with size are harder to get and tend to go higher in the draft and cost a lot to acquire. If you're going to throw darts, might as well go with a player that is more rare, but ultimately neither player later in the draft will amount to much.
On an interesting boat I was looking at the 2018 draft and it seems that from the 3rd round on Harris is the best player at this point from it.
