HF Habs: Flames or Panthers 1st Round Pick 2025

[Boss Man Hughes]

you found positives about Armia, but not Anderson? lol
10/10 gm's would take Andy over Armia every day of the week, Armia blows all over the ice and has no physical play. Andy may suck this year, but up till now he at least pots some goals and can play physical, and has speed. I don't understand why Armia is even here

Armia has the ability to be better than Anderson because he actually has hockey sense but he has no desire to maximize his talents.

 

[BLONG7]

Armia has the ability to be better than Anderson because he actually has hockey sense but he has no desire to maximize his talents.

If we could combine those two guys, we would have a heck of a player on our hands....

 

[Habs]

Armia has the ability to be better than Anderson because he actually has hockey sense but he has no desire to maximize his talents.

Armia has hockey sense? lol

 

[calder candidate]

I believe Habs get the worst of the 2 picks if the are both top 10 picks and the better of the 2 picks if they are both outside the top 10.

Yes, but the most likely is Calgary is in the top 10 and Florida isn’t we get Florida pick… But there is a dream scenario (very unlikely) where we end up with the better of the 2026 which would be unprotected.

 

[dinodebino]

Still can’t figure out when we are going to get it.

 

[Saundies]

Still can’t figure out when we are going to get it.

Same, the conditions on this pick hurt my brain and I code for a living.

 

[morhilane]

Still can’t figure out when we are going to get it.

Habs will get it next year, the chance both the Calgary and Florida first have their protection triggered next year is very unlikely to happen.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Currently Calgary is tied for bottom 9th with Arizona. Next year they're likely worse. It's going to be close on whether they finish bottom 10. If they do, we get Florida's pick, which will be 20+

If Calgary finishes 11th, we get their pick.

I'm banking on getting Florida's pick. I think Calgary is a bottom 10 team next year.

 

[HuGort]

Currently Calgary is tied for bottom 9th with Arizona. Next year they're likely worse. It's going to be close on whether they finish bottom 10. If they do, we get Florida's pick, which will be 20+

If Calgary finishes 11th, we get their pick.

I'm banking on getting Florida's pick. I think Calgary is a bottom 10 team next year.

Forsling and Reinhart should both hit the jackpot this summer. I can't see Florida being able to hold that team together.

We could end up with top 10 pick in '25 draft

 

[Walksss]

Currently Calgary is tied for bottom 9th with Arizona. Next year they're likely worse. It's going to be close on whether they finish bottom 10. If they do, we get Florida's pick, which will be 20+

If Calgary finishes 11th, we get their pick.

I'm banking on getting Florida's pick. I think Calgary is a bottom 10 team next year.

Yeah but thats just one scenario. The trigger on what we pick we get is heavily dependent on Florida. If the Panthers finish bottom 10, their pick does not transfer to Calgary and thus we get Calgary's pick regardless of where it is with just 1st overall protection. Obviously if they win the lottery we don't get the pick either it becomes a 2026 1st rounder, but that is even more unlikely.

I honestly could see a few scenarios where Florida has a large drop-off next year considering half their team is UFA and Bob will be another year older.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Yeah but thats just one scenario. The trigger on what we pick we get is heavily dependent on Florida. If the Panthers finish bottom 10, their pick does not transfer to Calgary and thus we get Calgary's pick regardless of where it is with just 1st overall protection. Obviously if they win the lottery we don't get the pick either it becomes a 2026 1st rounder, but that is even more unlikely.

I honestly could see a few scenarios where Florida has a large drop-off next year considering half their team is UFA and Bob will be another year older.

Florida's pick is lottery protected not top 10 protected, so the only way Calgary does not get that pick is if Florida misses the playoffs and then wins either #1 OA draft spot or #2 OA draft spot.

It's extremely unlikely that all that happens. Too many balls would have to tumble the right way.

The worst thing for Calgary is for Florida & Calgary to both miss playoffs, and then for Florida to win #1 OA & for Calgary to win #2 OA. In that scenario, Florida keeps their pick, and Montreal gets Calgary's pick. Calgary would have no 1st round picks in 2025.

I think it's far more likely that Calgary is a bottom 10 team, and Florida isn't, so we'll get Florida's pick.

 

[morhilane]

I just realized there was conditional 3rd and 4th round picks to this 1st crazy conditional thingy if it goes all the way to 2026 and which one of the 1st Habs get. What was the point of those? It is so unlikely to go that far.

 

[Zilo44]

What’s the most likely scenario ?

 

[Walksss]

Florida's pick is lottery protected not top 10 protected, so the only way Calgary does not get that pick is if Florida misses the playoffs and then wins either #1 OA draft spot or #2 OA draft spot.

It's extremely unlikely that all that happens. Too many balls would have to tumble the right way.

The worst thing for Calgary is for Florida & Calgary to both miss playoffs, and then for Florida to win #1 OA & for Calgary to win #2 OA. In that scenario, Florida keeps their pick, and Montreal gets Calgary's pick. Calgary would have no 1st round picks in 2025.

I think it's far more likely that Calgary is a bottom 10 team, and Florida isn't, so we'll get Florida's pick.

Ahhh I didn't realize that pick is only lottery protected, in that case that scenario is pretty far fetched. According to some of those flow charts around the internet that pick is top 10 protected. Thanks for clearing that up, but thats a total buzzkill lol.

 

[26Mats]

Still can’t figure out when we are going to get it.

I think it's basically this:

1) if Flames and Panthers don't finish bottom 10 next year, we get the better pick of the two in 2025. So, I'm really rooting for the flames to finish 11th last next year.
2) If one of those teams finishes bottom 10 but the other doesn't, we get the worse pick.
3) If both finish bottom 10 the pick is deferred to the Flames 2026 pick with way less restrictions (I think it's only top 2 protected).

Since 3) is unlikely, and 2) likely means a pick in the 20's, I'm hoping for scenario 1) with the pick being as close to #11 overall as possible. But with the way the Flames have sold and may continue to sell, it's looking less likely the Flames won't be bottom 10 next year.

What’s the most likely scenario ?

I think there are two very likely scenarios:

1) we get the Panthers pick next year because they make the playoffs, and the Flames finish bottom 10. And the Panthers pick isn't all that great.
2) Panthers make the playoffs, Flames don't, but the Flames don't finish bottom 10. So we get the Flames pick between 11 and 16.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I think it's basically this:

1) if Flames and Panthers don't finish bottom 10 next year, we get the better pick of the two in 2025. So, I'm really rooting for the flames to finish 11th last next year.
2) If one of those teams finishes bottom 10 but the other doesn't, we get the worse pick.
3) If both finish bottom 10 the pick is deferred to the Flames 2026 pick with way less restrictions (I think it's only top 2 protected).

Since 3) is unlikely, and 2) likely means a pick in the 20's, I'm hoping for scenario 1) with the pick being as close to #11 overall as possible. But with the way the Flames have sold and may continue to sell, it's looking less likely the Flames won't be bottom 10 next year.


I think there are two very likely scenarios:

1) we get the Panthers pick next year because they make the playoffs, and the Flames finish bottom 10. And the Panthers pick isn't all that great.
2) Panthers make the playoffs, Flames don't, but the Flames don't finish bottom 10. So we get the Flames pick between 11 and 16.

The only way the pick defers to 2026 is if we get Calgary's pick and it's 1OA.

 

[LaP]

Forsling and Reinhart should both hit the jackpot this summer. I can't see Florida being able to hold that team together.

We could end up with top 10 pick in '25 draft

Did you take a look at the bottom 10? Florida could lose their entire lineup as long as they have Tkachuk, Barkov and Ekblad and Bobrov is semi decent they wont finish bottom 10.

 

[LaP]

The only way the pick defers to 2026 is if we get Calgary's pick and it's 1OA.

Are you sure we get the better of the two picks if both are 11-32? I forgot.

If Florida finish bottom 10 Calgary will not get their pick so we automatically get Calgary's pick unless it's first overall. If Calgary doesn't get Florida's pick and their pick is 1st overall then we get the best pick between Calgary and Florida in 2026 (not protected and we get a 3rd round pick 2025 with it).

==============================

Les Flames de Calgary font l’acquisition de:​

Jonathan Huberdeau
MacKenzie Weegar
Cole Schwindt
Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (FLA) [Conditionnel]*
*Conditions: Choix protégé (loterie)

==============================

Scénario: Dans l'éventualité où Calgary ne reçoit PAS le choix de 1e ronde des Panthers:

Sous-scénario. Le choix des Flames fait partie du top-10
1. Si le choix de Calgary est le 1er au total, Montréal recevra le choix de 3e ronde des Flames en 2025, et le mieux classé des choix de 1e ronde entre celui des Flames et des Panthers en 2026. Résultat: À DÉTERMINER.
2. Si le choix de Calgary est entre les 2e et 10e rang, Montréal recevra le choix de 1e ronde des Flames en 2025. Résultat: À DÉTERMINER.

 

[CDN24]

Florida's pick is lottery protected not top 10 protected, so the only way Calgary does not get that pick is if Florida misses the playoffs and then wins either #1 OA draft spot or #2 OA draft spot.

It's extremely unlikely that all that happens. Too many balls would have to tumble the right way.

The worst thing for Calgary is for Florida & Calgary to both miss playoffs, and then for Florida to win #1 OA & for Calgary to win #2 OA. In that scenario, Florida keeps their pick, and Montreal gets Calgary's pick. Calgary would have no 1st round picks in 2025.

I think it's far more likely that Calgary is a bottom 10 team, and Florida isn't, so we'll get Florida's pick.

Is that lottery protection defined anywhere? I could not find it, I guess the question is what if Fla just misses the playoffs win one of the lotteries and move up 10 spots to 5 or something- would that be considered a lottery pick that they keep? again chances remote FL has to miss and then win lottery with something like 1/200 odds

 

[Zilo44]

Did you take a look at the bottom 10? Florida could lose their entire lineup as long as they have Tkachuk, Barkov and Ekblad and Bobrov is semi decent they wont finish bottom 10.

Yeah beat case scenario is Calgary finishes 11th or Calgary finishes bottom but Florida slows down and finishes around 16

 

[LaP]

Is that lottery protection defined anywhere? I could not find it, I guess the question is what if Fla just misses the playoffs win one of the lotteries and move up 10 spots to 5 or something- would that be considered a lottery pick that they keep? again chances remote FL has to miss and then win lottery with something like 1/200 odds

I posted it above it's on cap friendly.

What makes people confused is Calgary can't have Florida's bottom 10 pick next year since it's protected. So the whole if they are both bottom 10 doesn't even exist in the conditions since Calgary's wont have Florida's pick.

If Calgary doesn't receive Florida's pick (it's lottery protected) then we get Calgary's pick unless it's 1st overall. If it's 1st overall then we get Calgary's 3rd round pick in 2025 and the best of Florida's pick and Calgary's pick in 2026.

If Calgary receives Florida's pick then we received the better pick if Calgary doesn't draft top 10 and we receive Florida's pick if Calgary draft top 10. The "if they are both bottom 10" DOESN'T EXIST
since it can't happen Florida's pick is protected. It's really simple people are just confused by the wording of the smaller conditions.

 

[montreal]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading-flames-uncertain-hanifin-situation-coming-to-a-h~2861904

 

[CDN24]

I posted it above it's on cap friendly.

What makes people confused is Calgary can't have Florida's bottom 10 pick next year since it's protected. So the whole if they are both bottom 10 doesn't even exist in the conditions since Calgary's wont have Florida's pick.

If Calgary doesn't receive Florida's pick (it's lottery protected) then we get Calgary's pick unless it's 1st overall. If it's 1st overall then we get Calgary's 3rd round pick in 2025 and the best of Florida's pick and Calgary's pick in 2026.

If Calgary receives Florida's pick then we received the better pick if Calgary doesn't draft top 10 and we receive Florida's pick if Calgary draft top 10. The "if they are both bottom 10" DOESN'T EXIST
since it can't happen Florida's pick is protected. It's really simple people are just confused by the wording of the smaller conditions.

Interesting in that it does not mention a scenario where both picks are top 10 in which case it is implying that Calgary can't get the top 10 pick. so its not lottery win protection but being in a position to win the lottery. Begs the question what happens if Fla is in the 10 slot pre lottery and a team behind them 11-16 wins one of the lotteries bumping Fla down to 11- do they keep it?

It is the best set of trade conditions ever

 

[LaP]

Interesting in that it does not mention a scenario where both picks are top 10 in which case it is implying that Calgary can't get the top 10 pick. so its not lottery win protection but being in a position to win the lottery. Begs the question what happens if Fla is in the 10 slot pre lottery and a team behind them 11-16 wins one of the lotteries bumping Fla down to 11- do they keep it?

It is the best set of trade conditions ever

It doesn't matter who wins the lottery if Florida is in a position to win the 1st overall Calgary does not get the pick. Anyway that is usually how lottery protection is handled. It's usually resolved before the lottery.

 

[Walksss]

It doesn't matter who wins the lottery if Florida is in a position to win the 1st overall Calgary does not get the pick. Anyway that is usually how lottery protection is handled. It's usually resolved before the lottery.

Is that the way it works? I was discussing this above and thought it basically meant only if you won 1st or 2nd OA would it be protected. Otherwise its effectively a top 11 protection cause 11th can still move to 1st OA, right?