HF Habs: Flames or Panthers 1st Round Pick 2025

[LaP]

Is that the way it works? I was discussing this above and thought it basically meant only if you won 1st or 2nd OA would it be protected. Otherwise its effectively a top 11 protection cause 11th can still move to 1st OA, right?

Maybe you're right i'm not sure tbh. What i know is there's no "if they are both bottom 10" condition anyway not on cap friendly. The condition is either Calgary receive Florida's pick or doesn't receive it. There's not a word on if they both pick top 10 in the case Calgary receives Florida's pick so i assume if Florida pick top 10 Calgary doesn't get the pick?

 

[pth2]

My best case has Montreal at #10, Calgary at #9, and Montreal wins the lottery for #1, and Montreal gets #11 from Calgary.

Florida finishing in the lottery, Calgary getting #1 overall in 2025, and then winning #1 and #2 in 2026, with Montreal getting #2, seems to be the best possible case.

 

[Habssince89]

no matter what happens, the what ifs around this will go on for years

 

[SwiftyHab]

Anyone want to suggest additional conditions?

Non-serious suggestions only!

 

[MarkovsKnee]

It doesn't matter who wins the lottery if Florida is in a position to win the 1st overall Calgary does not get the pick. Anyway that is usually how lottery protection is handled. It's usually resolved before the lottery.

No, it's not. If it was top 10 or top 16 protected, it would say top 10 or top 16 protection. It clearly says lottery protection. That only covers the first 2 picks. If Florida finishes 3rd last, and drafts #3 OA in 2025 Calgary would get that pick.

There's very little protection on the Florida pick except for 1st & 2nd OA picks. If Florida makes the playoffs it's a moot point, but if they don't, the lottery will determine who gets what.

Right side, lottery pick. The only lottery picks are #1 & #2. Any other pick goes to Calgary.

 

[LaP]

No, it's not. If it was top 10 or top 16 protected, it would say top 10 or top 16 protection. It clearly says lottery protection. That only covers the first 2 picks. If Florida finishes 3rd last, and drafts #3 OA in 2025 Calgary would get that pick.

There's very little protection on the Florida pick except for 1st & 2nd OA picks. If Florida makes the playoffs it's a moot point, but if they don't, the lottery will determine who gets what.

View attachment 816519

Right side, lottery pick. The only lottery picks are #1 & #2. Any other pick goes to Calgary.

Then why there's no condition on whatever happen if both picks are bottom 10. On cap friendly there's nothing about it.

Scénario: Dans l'éventualité où Calgary reçoit le choix de 1e ronde des Panthers en 2025:

1. Si les deux choix (des Flames et des Panthers) ne font PAS partie du top-10, Montréal recevra le choix le mieux classé entre le choix de 1e ronde des Panthers et des Flames en 2025. Résultat: À DÉTERMINER.

2. Si le choix des Flames fait partie du top-10 ET que celui des Panthers n'en fait pas partie, Montréal recevra le choix de la Floride. Résultat: À DÉTERMINER.


Scénario: Dans l'éventualité où Calgary ne reçoit PAS le choix de 1e ronde des Panthers:

[...]

 

[26Mats]

The only way the pick defers to 2026 is if we get Calgary's pick and it's 1OA.

Are you sure we get the better of the two picks if both are 11-32? I forgot.

yeah we really need Florida to miss the playoffs next year. Hughes needs to make any moves and trades to try to make that happen. Like if Florida is in a race with Pittsburgh for a playoff spot, give the Pens some good rentals at highly discounted prices.

A refresher on the Sean Monahan first-round pick trade conditions with diagrams - The Win Column

The Calgary Flames broke the internet with the complicated conditions applied to the Sean Monahan trade. Here's the simplest breakdown.

thewincolumn.ca

 

[rahad]

yeah we really need Florida to miss the playoffs next year. Hughes needs to make any moves and trades to try to make that happen. Like if Florida is in a race with Pittsburgh for a playoff spot, give the Pens some good rentals at highly discounted prices.

A refresher on the Sean Monahan first-round pick trade conditions with diagrams - The Win Column

The Calgary Flames broke the internet with the complicated conditions applied to the Sean Monahan trade. Here's the simplest breakdown.

thewincolumn.ca

Knowing our luck, Florida Panthers are going to be the Stanley cup champion in 2025....

 

[morhilane]

No, it's not. If it was top 10 or top 16 protected, it would say top 10 or top 16 protection. It clearly says lottery protection. That only covers the first 2 picks. If Florida finishes 3rd last, and drafts #3 OA in 2025 Calgary would get that pick.

There's very little protection on the Florida pick except for 1st & 2nd OA picks. If Florida makes the playoffs it's a moot point, but if they don't, the lottery will determine who gets what.

View attachment 816519

Right side, lottery pick. The only lottery picks are #1 & #2. Any other pick goes to Calgary.

Rangers gave a "lottery protected" 1st back in 2016, on CapFriendly it mention the Rangers having made the playoffs as the reasons why the protection wasn't triggered. It looks like "lottery protected" means top 16 protected. You can win the 6th OA as the 16th team (it's max 10 ranks down if you win), it's not just #1 and #2.

 

[Gustave]

Knowing our luck, Florida Panthers are going to be the Stanley cup champion in 2025....

I went through one season of wild swings following the Panthers last season, I’m never going though it again.

I don’t think I’ve ever been more in shock than when the Leafs could’ve ended it with an EN goal and couldn’t do it, which propulsed the Panthers on the tangent we all know now.

 

[GrandBison]

Lottery protected means "being part of the lottery", not winning the lottery. As per this year rules, it's top 16.

 

[GrandBison]

Possibilities for 2025: FLA 17-32 or CGY 2-32. If CGY pick is 11 to 16, it's ours.

 

[Walksss]

Lottery protected means "being part of the lottery", not winning the lottery. As per this year rules, it's top 16.

I pray this is true cause that would be amazingggggg.

 

[GrandBison]

I pray this is true cause that would be amazingggggg.

What I see is if CGY pick is 2-10, they'll try to get FLA pick if 11-16 to keep their pick.

 

[montreal]

again it's not worth the time trying to figure this out when the easy answer is that this pick is all about the panthers so unless you think they will suck next year, that's the likely pick we are getting, it could happen but they would likely need a number of big injuries next season to for it to not end up with us picking in the 20's or 32ish.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Then why there's no condition on whatever happen if both picks are bottom 10. On cap friendly there's nothing about it.

Scénario: Dans l'éventualité où Calgary reçoit le choix de 1e ronde des Panthers en 2025:

1. Si les deux choix (des Flames et des Panthers) ne font PAS partie du top-10, Montréal recevra le choix le mieux classé entre le choix de 1e ronde des Panthers et des Flames en 2025. Résultat: À DÉTERMINER.

2. Si le choix des Flames fait partie du top-10 ET que celui des Panthers n'en fait pas partie, Montréal recevra le choix de la Floride. Résultat: À DÉTERMINER.


Scénario: Dans l'éventualité où Calgary ne reçoit PAS le choix de 1e ronde des Panthers:

[...]

Because it's stated in the 1st part: If Montreal passes on Calgary's 2024 pick, or is not given the choice of the 2024 pick then Montreal receives Calgary's 2025 1st round pick. We receive their 2025 1st round pick.

The exceptions are only for instances where we don't receive that pick:

1. Calgary's pick is top 10, Florida's isn't. We get Florida's.
2. Both are outside top 10. We get the better pick.
3. Calgary's is 1st OA.

In all other scenarios, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #3, Florida pick #5, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #7, Florida pick #3, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #9, Florida pick #10 (not outside top 10), we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #8, Florida pick #25, we get Florida's pick.

Calgary has pick #15, Florida has pick #13, we get Florida's (the better pick outside of top 10).

Capfriendly.com isn't being specific enough. It's 2024 or 2025 with exceptions on when we DON'T get Calgary's pick; otherwise we get Calgary's pick.

 

[26Mats]

again it's not worth the time trying to figure this out when the easy answer is that this pick is all about the panthers so unless you think they will suck next year, that's the likely pick we are getting, it could happen but they would likely need a number of big injuries next season to for it to not end up with us picking in the 20's or 32ish.

Unless after the 2025 lottery Calgary's pick is 11th or worse.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

Because it's stated in the 1st part: If Montreal passes on Calgary's 2024 pick, or is not given the choice of the 2024 pick then Montreal receives Calgary's 2025 1st round pick. We receive their 2025 1st round pick.

The exceptions are only for instances where we don't receive that pick:

1. Calgary's pick is top 10, Florida's isn't. We get Florida's.
2. Both are outside top 10. We get the better pick.
3. Calgary's is 1st OA.

In all other scenarios, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #3, Florida pick #5, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #7, Florida pick #3, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #9, Florida pick #10 (not outside top 10), we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #8, Florida pick #25, we get Florida's pick.

Calgary has pick #15, Florida has pick #13, we get Florida's (the better pick outside of top 10).

Capfriendly.com isn't being specific enough. It's 2024 or 2025 with exceptions on when we DON'T get Calgary's pick; otherwise we get Calgary's pick.

That or calculus I don't see any difference

 

[26Mats]

Because it's stated in the 1st part: If Montreal passes on Calgary's 2024 pick, or is not given the choice of the 2024 pick then Montreal receives Calgary's 2025 1st round pick. We receive their 2025 1st round pick.

The exceptions are only for instances where we don't receive that pick:

1. Calgary's pick is top 10, Florida's isn't. We get Florida's.
2. Both are outside top 10. We get the better pick.
3. Calgary's is 1st OA.

In all other scenarios, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #3, Florida pick #5, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #7, Florida pick #3, we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #9, Florida pick #10 (not outside top 10), we get Calgary's pick.

Calgary has pick #8, Florida pick #25, we get Florida's pick.

Calgary has pick #15, Florida has pick #13, we get Florida's (the better pick outside of top 10).

Capfriendly.com isn't being specific enough. It's 2024 or 2025 with exceptions on when we DON'T get Calgary's pick; otherwise we get Calgary's pick.

If Florida finish bottom 10 Calgary will not get their pick so we automatically get Calgary's pick unless it's first overall. If Calgary doesn't get Florida's pick and their pick is 1st overall then we get the best pick between Calgary and Florida in 2026 (not protected and we get a 3rd round pick 2025 with it).

==============================

Les Flames de Calgary font l’acquisition de:​

Jonathan Huberdeau
MacKenzie Weegar
Cole Schwindt
Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (FLA) [Conditionnel]*
*Conditions: Choix protégé (loterie)

==============================

Scénario: Dans l'éventualité où Calgary ne reçoit PAS le choix de 1e ronde des Panthers:

Sous-scénario. Le choix des Flames fait partie du top-10
1. Si le choix de Calgary est le 1er au total, Montréal recevra le choix de 3e ronde des Flames en 2025, et le mieux classé des choix de 1e ronde entre celui des Flames et des Panthers en 2026. Résultat: À DÉTERMINER.
2. Si le choix de Calgary est entre les 2e et 10e rang, Montréal recevra le choix de 1e ronde des Flames en 2025. Résultat: À DÉTERMINER.

I think the conditions on the Florida pick that they sent to Calgary in the Tkachuk trade are that the pick doesn't get sent to Calgary if it is a lottery pick. So, the Florida pick doesn't have to be a top 10 pick for it not to be sent to Calgary, and for us then to get Calgary's pick as long as Calgary's pick isn't 1st overall. The Florida pick could be 16th overall and we'd get the Calgary pick.

So the two dream scenarios are:
1) Florida misses the playoffs and Calgary's pick is top 10, but not 1st.
2) Florida makes the playoffs, but Calgary's pick is 11th overall, or very close to 11th overall.

A refresher on the Sean Monahan first-round pick trade conditions with diagrams - The Win Column

The Calgary Flames broke the internet with the complicated conditions applied to the Sean Monahan trade. Here's the simplest breakdown.

thewincolumn.ca

 

[montreal]

Unless after the 2025 lottery Calgary's pick is 11th or worse.

correct though I'm expecting the Flames to suck next year but we'll see. The one thing that I'm wondering about is what do the panthers do at the deadline, as far as I know they are allowed to trade their '25 1st round pick despite it being a conditional pick. If so then that would break this wide open and could make things get very interesting.

 

[GHJimmy]

It'll still be better than the 1st overall we picked

 

[calder candidate]

correct though I'm expecting the Flames to suck next year but we'll see. The one thing that I'm wondering about is what do the panthers do at the deadline, as far as I know they are allowed to trade their '25 1st round pick despite it being a conditional pick. If so then that would break this wide open and could make things get very interesting.

Under league rules, teams cannot trade away picks that they may need to move as part of a condition in another trade. Right now Florida need their there 2024, 2025 and 2026 1st to fill the conditions but once the Gioux trade is completed (once they clinch 11th or better) technically they would only need to have their 2026 1st to fill the conditions so they could probably trade their 2025 1st.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Forsling and Reinhart should both hit the jackpot this summer. I can't see Florida being able to hold that team together.

We could end up with top 10 pick in '25 draft

Almost their whole Dcorps is up for renewal. GM is gonna have his hands full

 

[Walksss]

I think the conditions on the Florida pick that they sent to Calgary in the Tkachuk trade are that the pick doesn't get sent to Calgary if it is a lottery pick. So, the Florida pick doesn't have to be a top 10 pick for it not to be sent to Calgary, and for us then to get Calgary's pick as long as Calgary's pick isn't 1st overall. The Florida pick could be 16th overall and we'd get the Calgary pick.

So the two dream scenarios are:
1) Florida misses the playoffs and Calgary's pick is top 10, but not 1st.
2) Florida makes the playoffs, but Calgary's pick is 11th overall, or very close to 11th overall.

A refresher on the Sean Monahan first-round pick trade conditions with diagrams - The Win Column

The Calgary Flames broke the internet with the complicated conditions applied to the Sean Monahan trade. Here's the simplest breakdown.

thewincolumn.ca

Now we're talking. Ultimately all Florida has to do is miss the playoffs and business starts booming next year.

I honestly don't need to squint that hard to see it happen either, with all their UFAs combined with the fragility of Barkov and Ekblad, they could miss next year. Add in the inconsistencies of Bobrovsky and we already have a little situation cooking.

That pick could be amazing, in fact it's likely to be quite a valuable pick in most scenarios.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

What’s the most likely scenario ?

My guess is we draft somewhere around 20th next year using Florida’s pick.