HF Habs: Flames or Panthers 1st Round Pick 2025: Part II

[austin316]

Calgary is 5 points ahead of a top 10 picks with 1 game in hand.

Let's say the team currently 10 finish the season with 11-12-3 so they'll finish with 80 points.

Calgary would need 21 points to beat that in 27 games. So 10-16-1 which is a P% of .388. Only SJ and Chicago currently have a P% of 388 and lower.

Not sure this tells the whole story.

There are currently 11 teams between Calgary and 5th overall and they are only separated by 8 points.

Calgary has an extremely difficult schedule and it’s more likely than not that a handful of teams between them pass them given their schedule.

I hope you’re right, but I’m planning to have the Panthers pick.

 

[LaP]

Not sure this tells the whole story.

There are currently 11 teams between Calgary and 5th overall and they are only separated by 8 points.

Calgary has an extremely difficult schedule and it’s more likely than not that a handful of teams between them pass them given their schedule.

I hope you’re right, but I’m planning to have the Panthers pick.

5 points lead is honestly bigger than people think at this time of the year. It will require one of the team 5 points behind Calgary to go hot unless Calgary is one of the 2-3 worst teams in the league.

 

[LaP]

Let's say the Ducks finish the season with 14-11-3 so they'll finish with 85 points.

Calgary would need 26 points to beat that in 27 games. So 12-13-2 which is a P% of .481.

They have a super tough schedule for the rest of the season.
They have about 10 winnable games left and most of them will be at the very end of their schedule. They'll probably already be in the bottom 10 by that time and i don't think they'll be super motivated to win those games at that point.

We can make numbers say pretty much what we want when they're made up.

That's one team though. For Calgary to pick top 10th a great total of 6 teams must pass them so even if Anaheim continue their hot streak which like Montreal they probably wont it would still require 5 other teams to pass Calgary. Those teams are bad they'll lose too. People act like only Calgary has the right to lose games starting from now all other teams will transform into Vegas all of a sudden.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

We should have traded vets to pittsburgh to help them beat out Florida. It ended up coming down to the last day of the season for Florida to get in...

Pittsburgh's issue was goaltending. Did you see the f***ing game winning goal that Jarry gave up! It was bad, man. He killed the Pens.

 

[Deus ex machina]

That's one team though. For Calgary to pick top 10th a great total of 6 teams must pass them so even if Anaheim continue their hot streak which like Montreal they probably wont it would still require 5 other teams to pass Calgary. Those teams are bad they'll lose too. People act like only Calgary has the right to lose games starting from now all other teams will transform into Vegas all of a sudden.

Yes, that's only one team besides the other 5 teams that are within 3 points of the Flames and will likely pass them.

I'm not saying the Ducks will pass the Flames but my point is, i'm not sure how you came up with that 11-12-3 record for the Habs/Blues and then came to a conclusion based on that hypothesis.
What happened so far this season or in previous seasons is not a predictor of what will happen for the rest of the season.

 

[Benstheman]

Calgary is exactly where I wanted them to be nearing the trade deadline. They have what 5, 6 or 7 games left before the deadline? And they are in the middle of a race for the last playoffs spot. They won't sell and if anything, they might add a piece or 2 to help them.

I would be very surprised to see them falling in the bottom 10 unless Wolf gets injured.

 

[26Mats]

Calgary is exactly where I wanted them to be nearing the trade deadline. They have what 5, 6 or 7 games left before the deadline? And they are in the middle of a race for the last playoffs spot. They won't sell and if anything, they might add a piece or 2 to help them.

I would be very surprised to see them falling in the bottom 10 unless Wolf gets injured.

It's very close for Calgary to hit bottom 10. They have ccx a tough schedule coming up. Too close for my comfort.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

In other news, Calgary plays San Jose tonight at 8 PM. It's in Calgary.

A win would put Calgary one point behind Vancouver for WC2. This is pretty much a must win game for Calgary because they have a really tough March.

9 of their next 17 games are against top 10 teams. They only play 5 non-playoff teams (Montreal, NYI, Philadelphia, NYR & Seattle).

12 of 17 games are also on the road, where they are below .500 (only slightly).

The good news is Calgary shows no interest in trading anyone away (like Andersson).

They are 3 points from a playoff spot & 3 points from drafting 10th. Standings are tight.

 

[Beaker]

Any chance Florida slide out of the playoff picture with Matthew Tkachuk possibly being out long term?

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Any chance Florida slide out of the playoff picture with Matthew Tkachuk possibly being out long term?

No, they have way too big of a lead. They've also played and won without him before.

I do expect Toronto to catch them again and finish 1st in the Division. And, there is potential that they drop out of top 10 in standings.

11th OA has the 22nd pick - assuming Florida doesn't get to Final Four. I think they will, though.

 

[26Mats]

In other news, Calgary plays San Jose tonight at 8 PM. It's in Calgary.

A win would put Calgary one point behind Vancouver for WC2. This is pretty much a must win game for Calgary because they have a really tough March.

9 of their next 17 games are against top 10 teams. They only play 5 non-playoff teams (Montreal, NYI, Philadelphia, NYR & Seattle).

12 of 17 games are also on the road, where they are below .500 (only slightly).

The good news is Calgary shows no interest in trading anyone away (like Andersson).

They are 3 points from a playoff spot & 3 points from drafting 10th. Standings are tight.

It's so tight for that Calgary pick.

At this point I'm definitely more worried about them finishing bottom 10 after spending the whole year worried about them making the playoffs!

 

[WatchfulElm]

We need Calgary to stay in the playoffs picture until the trade deadline. Then they can fall off a little bit, just not too much.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Calgary leading SJS 2-1 after 2, but Wolf has saved their asses a few times.

PBP guys keep talking about how this is a must win game due to the tough schedule ahead. I'm like someone should tell the Flames that.

After tonight, Calgary goes on a 6 game road trip. They are: @ Washington, @ TBL, @ Fla, @ Carolina (a back-to-back), @ Philadelphia & @ Dallas

That takes them to March 6th. Trade Deadline is March 7th. Apparently, they're going to see where they're at by the end of the road trip to decide to sell or not. They don't really have a lot to sell, though. Mainly 4th liners. I guess they could sell Kadri.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Toffoli ties it. f***! Calgary playing like crap.

 

[sukimono]

Effin' Canucks collapsing. 32 shots Utah to Nucks 12....

 

[sukimono]

Pretty much worst case scenario

 

[Habs7631]

Canucks lost!! lfgg

Flames up 3-2 with 4 minutes left in the third. hopefully they can hang on.

 

[sukimono]

Canucks lost!! lfgg

Flames up 3-2 with 4 minutes left in the third. hopefully they can hang on.

LFG? Why??? lol.

 

[Habs7631]

LFG? Why??? lol.

Canucks losing is good since they are the team Calgary is trying to catch. Since the Nucks lost in regulation, and the Flames just won, they are now only 1 point behind.

As long as Calgary is in the running for the last WC spot, they won’t sell at the deadline. Way too early to start cheering for Flames losses.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Calgary holds on for the 3-2 win. Ex-Hab Joel Hanley with the game winning goal.

With Vancouver's loss, Flames are actually one point back of WC2 with a game in hand.

However, Calgary has a really tough 6 game road trip now.

Utah is now only 4 pts back of Vancouver.

 

[sukimono]

Canucks losing is good since they are the team Calgary is trying to catch. Since the Nucks lost in regulation, and the Flames just won, they are now only 1 point behind.

As long as Calgary is in the running for the last WC spot, they won’t sell at the deadline. Way too early to start cheering for Flames losses.

No, it's not good by any stretch of the imagination. And even if the Flames were to sell at deadline, they would still win their fair share of games given the veterans they have. The West is a complete dumpster fire... you're problably looking at a team that will end up making the playoffs, given all of the on and also off the ice distractions in Vancouver... and literally nobody else wants that spot. It's just bad all around.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Effin' Canucks collapsing. 32 shots Utah to Nucks 12....

Utah winning is good for our own pick, which will be higher and so, more important.

 

[Habs7631]

No, it's not good by any stretch of the imagination. And even if the Flames were to sell at deadline, they would still win their fair share of games given the veterans they have. The West is a complete dumpster fire... you're problably looking at a team that will make the playoffs, given all of the on and also off the ice distractions in Vancouver... and literally nobody else wants that spot. It's just bad all around.

Flames have a pretty rough schedule left, I’ll take whatever wins they can get for now.

And if the flames get the last WC spot we’ll get pick #17. I’ll take that over risking them free falling into the top 10. I know we all dream of getting pick number 11 but that’s kinda bring too greedy. We have the ammo to move up significantly from #17. Not a bad place to be for our second first rounder.

 

[sukimono]

Utah winning is good for our own pick, which will be higher and so, more important.

That's true though. They should fare much better than us going forward

Flames have a pretty rough schedule left, I’ll take whatever wins they can get for now.

And if the flames get the last WC spot we’ll get pick #17. I’ll take that over risking them free falling into the top 10. I know we all dream of getting pick number 11 but that’s kinda bring too greedy. We have the ammo to move up significantly from #17. Not a a bad place to be for our second first rounder.

I get what you are saying, i just personally find that the odds they drop in the top 10 at this point is rather thin, but we shall see.

 

[Deus ex machina]

Flames have a pretty rough schedule left, I’ll take whatever wins they can get for now.

And if the flames get the last WC spot we’ll get pick #17. I’ll take that over risking them free falling into the top 10. I know we all dream of getting pick number 11 but that’s kinda bring too greedy. We have the ammo to move up significantly from #17. Not a bad place to be for our second first rounder.

Well said.
Plus they have 0% odds of winning the lottery with pick 17.

But i doubt they make the playoffs with that schedule.