HF Habs: Flames or Panthers 1st Round Pick 2025: Part II

[Habs Halifax]

Still don't think the Flames are a playoff team?

It's now looking like it's Utah, St. Louis, and Vancouver that aren't playoff teams.

What is going on in Vancouver????

Canucks season last year was an anomaly. They have depth issues and their team D and goaltending has taken a nose dive from what they did last year. Ripple effects from lack of good goaltending and team D is something the Habs know very well.

Canucks gave Hughes the 6 year term (2 more years left) and they got to figure out how to retool because they prefer him to stay.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Those bottom teams will be selling hard. Flames can't do that.

There isn't all that much to sell for Calgary. They pretty much sold last year when they shipped out Zadorov, Hanifin & Markstrom.

I guess maybe Kadri, but they're already short centers, so unless they get something significant, I doubt it. Andersson? He doesn't seem to want to leave.

They won't sell off any young players. I actually expect them not to do much.

 

[Deus ex machina]

Still don't think the Flames are a playoff team?

It's now looking like it's Utah, St. Louis, and Vancouver that aren't playoff teams.

What is going on in Vancouver????

Vancouver just beat Washington yesterday and are just 3 points behind Calgary.
With 34 games to go. Not 4. 34.

Lots can still happen.

 

[Deus ex machina]

Yeah, there is like a 10% chance the Flames fall on their face and slip to bottom 10 at this stage. Lets look at the numbers and projection...
* 53 pts with 46 games (36 games to go)
* 11th last in 23/24 was 84 pts (10th last was 81 pts)
* 11th last in 22/24 was 83 pts (10th last was 81 pts)

Flames need 31 pts to get to 84 pts. 31 pts in 36 games (0.431%).
* They were 0.494 all of last year when they finished 9th last.
* They were 0.472 in their last 36 games last year (tank year)

This is good research but standings are so close that i'm not sure it can apply for this season.
Calgary are still just 5 points away from being in a position to pick top 10 despite winning their last 3 games.
If they had lost those 3 games they'd already be picking top 10.

It's that close.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This is good research but standings are so close that i'm not sure it can apply for this season.
Calgary are still just 5 points away from being in a position to pick top 10 despite winning their last 3 games.
If they had lost those 3 games they'd already be picking top 10.

It's that close.

They need to play worse (for the rest of this season) than they did the entire year last year and also the last 30+ games from last year.

It's low probability they slip to bottom 10.

 

[Deus ex machina]

They need to play worse (for the rest of this season) than they did the entire year last year and also the last 30+ games from last year.

It's low probability they slip to bottom 10.

We don't know what it will take to finish out of the bottom 10 this season. What happened last season is irrelevant.
Standings are much closer this season. Other than a few outliers, bottom teams are better and top teams are not as good as they were last season.

Like i said, they're just 5 points and a little losing streak away to be in a position to pick top 10, with 35ish games to go.
No team is immune to a losing streak and the Flames are not exactly elite.

But i hope you're right this time.

 

[Team_Spirit]

We want the Flames missing right?

Juulsen

 

[HuGort]

There isn't all that much to sell for Calgary. They pretty much sold last year when they shipped out Zadorov, Hanifin & Markstrom.

I guess maybe Kadri, but they're already short centers, so unless they get something significant, I doubt it. Andersson? He doesn't seem to want to leave.

They won't sell off any young players. I actually expect them not to do much.

Flames have good chemistry why they playing over their talent level. I doubt they risk disrupting it by adding

 

[Habs Halifax]

We don't know what it will take to finish out of the bottom 10 this season. What happened last season is irrelevant.
Standings are much closer this season. Other than a few outliers, bottom teams are better and top teams are not as good as they were last season.

Like i said, they're just 5 points and a little losing streak away to be in a position to pick top 10, with 35ish games to go.
No team is immune to a losing streak and the Flames are not exactly elite.

But i hope you're right this time.

It's all about probability. Low chance the Flames slip to bottom 10. The numbers speak for themselves. Flames have to play the worse hockey they have played in 3 years.

 

[Benstheman]

We don't know what it will take to finish out of the bottom 10 this season. What happened last season is irrelevant.
Standings are much closer this season. Other than a few outliers, bottom teams are better and top teams are not as good as they were last season.

Like i said, they're just 5 points and a little losing streak away to be in a position to pick top 10, with 35ish games to go.
No team is immune to a losing streak and the Flames are not exactly elite.

But i hope you're right this time.

Right now there are 7 teams that plays 3 games under .500 or worst. Chances are almost 0% Cgy finish lower than those teams.

After that, you have 3 teams that plays .500, which complete the bottom 10.

Cgy are 7 games over .500 right now with 34 games to go. So they would need to go approximately 14-20 or worst to have a chance at finishing bottom 10 and keeping their 1st pick.

It's not entirely impossible but with Wolf in net, it's unlikely.

For Habs fans, I think right now we should hope for the Flames to play for .500 or a bit worst for the rest of the season. Though, we would need a team like Vancouver, St-Louis or Utah to step up and take the last WC spot over Cgy. That for me is the most worrying part.

 

[Nicko999]

While all the talk is about Calgary, I am watching Florida closely. The first team out of the playoffs is Columbus and they are 6 pts from the Panthers with 1 game in hand.

Currently i would rank the chance of us getting the Florida pick at 20% but it's been increasing in the past 2 weeks.

 

[LaP]

While all the talk is about Calgary, I am watching Florida closely. The first team out of the playoffs is Columbus and they are 6 pts from the Panthers with 1 game in hand.

Currently i would rank the chance of us getting the Florida pick at 20% but it's been increasing in the past 2 weeks.

For Florida to miss two of Ottawa, Montreal, Boston or TB and Columbus or NYR muss pass Florida. 6 points is a lot specially when you don't have the tie breaker and you just lost your number 1 center for 2 months.

Not sure why so many people still dont get that 6 points is a huge margin as this time of the year.

Florida has 31 games left. Let's say they go 14-14-3. They'll finish the year with 92 points. This means Columbus will need 93 points to make it. So columbus would need 38 points in 32 games. So they would need to be 18-12-2. Possible? yes. Likely? nope.

 

[Nicko999]

For Florida to miss two of Ottawa, Montreal, Boston or TB and Columbus or NYR muss pass Florida. 6 points is a lot specially when you don't have the tie breaker and you just lost your number 1 center for 2 months.

Not sure why so many people still dont get that 6 points is a huge margin as this time of the year.

Florida has 31 games left. Let's say they go 14-14-3. They'll finish the year with 92 points. This means Columbus will need 93 points to make it. So columbus would need 38 points in 32 games. So they would need to be 18-12-2. Possible? yes. Likely? nope.

I still give 80% chance we get Calgary pick.
But if the Flames get into the playoffs then we need to check number of pts between teams (assuming no one makes the conference finals which is not a given with Florida).

Florida: 61 pts
Calgary: 55 pts (with 3 games in hand)

Still several scenarios in which we get Florida's pick.

 

[Trabdy2]

Looking like both Florida and Calgary will be making the playoffs at this point, but things could change. Calgary would probably be a 1st round exit, if they do make it.

I'm gonna project that we are getting the 14th (ours) and 18th (Calgary's) overall picks this year. That's the sort of thing we're looking at I think.

 

[LaP]

I still give 80% chance we get Calgary pick.
But if the Flames get into the playoffs then we need to check number of pts between teams (assuming no one makes the conference finals which is not a given with Florida).

Florida: 61 pts
Calgary: 55 pts (with 3 games in hand)

Still several scenarios in which we get Florida's pick.

If both teams draft outside the top 10 we get the better pick.

 

[Nicko999]

If both teams draft outside the top 10 we get the better pick.

I know. It's pretty obvious both will finish well outside the top 10.
So it will be to who finishes lower in the standings. 6 pts difference with 2 games in hand for Calgary so getting their pick is not a guarantee. We could get Florida's.

 

[WG]

This is good research but standings are so close that i'm not sure it can apply for this season.
Calgary are still just 5 points away from being in a position to pick top 10 despite winning their last 3 games.
If they had lost those 3 games they'd already be picking top 10.

It's that close.

Right now there are 13 teams in the middle of the league standings separated by 7 points:
#13 overall (Ottawa 56 pts) to #25 overall (Utah 49 pts). Win or lose 4 in a row and discussion quickly goes from playoff positioning to lottery odds.

 

[tazsub3]

I know. It's pretty obvious both will finish well outside the top 10.
So it will be to who finishes lower in the standings. 6 pts difference with 2 games in hand for Calgary so getting their pick is not a guarantee. We could get Florida's.

While the numbers say you are right , I for one won’t open my mouth , after eating crap on the last Florida pick that I was positive will be a lottery but ended up being 31st!

 

[GrandBison]

With our luck, it will be a FLA-CGY Stanley Cup final.

 

[26Mats]

Looking like both Florida and Calgary will be making the playoffs at this point, but things could change. Calgary would probably be a 1st round exit, if they do make it.

I'm gonna project that we are getting the 14th (ours) and 18th (Calgary's) overall picks this year. That's the sort of thing we're looking at I think.

I really hope Vancouver can get it together.

And with so many teams pushing for a playoff spot in the east, if Calgary falls out of the playoff race, perhaps many eastern conference teams could pass them on the overall rankings...

 

[Deus ex machina]

The Canucks are now 1 point behind the Flames after being 5 points behind just a couple of days ago.
For those worried the Flames are gonna make the playoffs...

 

[Trabdy2]

The Canucks are now 1 point behind the Flames after being 5 points behind just a couple of days ago.
For those worried the Flames are gonna make the playoffs...

The Canucks are sort of a mess right now though with all the news about Pettersson and Miller. I'm not confident they have what it takes to overtake the Flames. Maybe the Blues can, but they're quite a bit further back.

Flames might not be comfy yet, but things are looking pretty good for them to make the playoffs.