HF Habs: Flames or Panthers 1st Round Pick 2025: Part II

[Habs Halifax]

Still don't think the Flames are a playoff team?

It's now looking like it's Utah, St. Louis, and Vancouver that aren't playoff teams.

What is going on in Vancouver????

Canucks season last year was an anomaly. They have depth issues and their team D and goaltending has taken a nose dive from what they did last year. Ripple effects from lack of good goaltending and team D is something the Habs know very well.

Canucks gave Hughes the 6 year term (2 more years left) and they got to figure out how to retool because they prefer him to stay.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Those bottom teams will be selling hard. Flames can't do that.

There isn't all that much to sell for Calgary. They pretty much sold last year when they shipped out Zadorov, Hanifin & Markstrom.

I guess maybe Kadri, but they're already short centers, so unless they get something significant, I doubt it. Andersson? He doesn't seem to want to leave.

They won't sell off any young players. I actually expect them not to do much.

 

[Deus ex machina]

Still don't think the Flames are a playoff team?

It's now looking like it's Utah, St. Louis, and Vancouver that aren't playoff teams.

What is going on in Vancouver????

Vancouver just beat Washington yesterday and are just 3 points behind Calgary.
With 34 games to go. Not 4. 34.

Lots can still happen.

 

[Deus ex machina]

Yeah, there is like a 10% chance the Flames fall on their face and slip to bottom 10 at this stage. Lets look at the numbers and projection...
* 53 pts with 46 games (36 games to go)
* 11th last in 23/24 was 84 pts (10th last was 81 pts)
* 11th last in 22/24 was 83 pts (10th last was 81 pts)

Flames need 31 pts to get to 84 pts. 31 pts in 36 games (0.431%).
* They were 0.494 all of last year when they finished 9th last.
* They were 0.472 in their last 36 games last year (tank year)

This is good research but standings are so close that i'm not sure it can apply for this season.
Calgary are still just 5 points away from being in a position to pick top 10 despite winning their last 3 games.
If they had lost those 3 games they'd already be picking top 10.

It's that close.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This is good research but standings are so close that i'm not sure it can apply for this season.
Calgary are still just 5 points away from being in a position to pick top 10 despite winning their last 3 games.
If they had lost those 3 games they'd already be picking top 10.

It's that close.

They need to play worse (for the rest of this season) than they did the entire year last year and also the last 30+ games from last year.

It's low probability they slip to bottom 10.

 

[Deus ex machina]

They need to play worse (for the rest of this season) than they did the entire year last year and also the last 30+ games from last year.

It's low probability they slip to bottom 10.

We don't know what it will take to finish out of the bottom 10 this season. What happened last season is irrelevant.
Standings are much closer this season. Other than a few outliers, bottom teams are better and top teams are not as good as they were last season.

Like i said, they're just 5 points and a little losing streak away to be in a position to pick top 10, with 35ish games to go.
No team is immune to a losing streak and the Flames are not exactly elite.

But i hope you're right this time.

 

[Team_Spirit]

We want the Flames missing right?

Juulsen

 

[HuGort]

There isn't all that much to sell for Calgary. They pretty much sold last year when they shipped out Zadorov, Hanifin & Markstrom.

I guess maybe Kadri, but they're already short centers, so unless they get something significant, I doubt it. Andersson? He doesn't seem to want to leave.

They won't sell off any young players. I actually expect them not to do much.

Flames have good chemistry why they playing over their talent level. I doubt they risk disrupting it by adding

 

[Habs Halifax]

We don't know what it will take to finish out of the bottom 10 this season. What happened last season is irrelevant.
Standings are much closer this season. Other than a few outliers, bottom teams are better and top teams are not as good as they were last season.

Like i said, they're just 5 points and a little losing streak away to be in a position to pick top 10, with 35ish games to go.
No team is immune to a losing streak and the Flames are not exactly elite.

But i hope you're right this time.

It's all about probability. Low chance the Flames slip to bottom 10. The numbers speak for themselves. Flames have to play the worse hockey they have played in 3 years.

 

[Benstheman]

We don't know what it will take to finish out of the bottom 10 this season. What happened last season is irrelevant.
Standings are much closer this season. Other than a few outliers, bottom teams are better and top teams are not as good as they were last season.

Like i said, they're just 5 points and a little losing streak away to be in a position to pick top 10, with 35ish games to go.
No team is immune to a losing streak and the Flames are not exactly elite.

But i hope you're right this time.

Right now there are 7 teams that plays 3 games under .500 or worst. Chances are almost 0% Cgy finish lower than those teams.

After that, you have 3 teams that plays .500, which complete the bottom 10.

Cgy are 7 games over .500 right now with 34 games to go. So they would need to go approximately 14-20 or worst to have a chance at finishing bottom 10 and keeping their 1st pick.

It's not entirely impossible but with Wolf in net, it's unlikely.

For Habs fans, I think right now we should hope for the Flames to play for .500 or a bit worst for the rest of the season. Though, we would need a team like Vancouver, St-Louis or Utah to step up and take the last WC spot over Cgy. That for me is the most worrying part.