Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[Mark Stones Spleen]

For a team that generates so many odd man rushes, we certainly stink at scoring goals.

Isn't the criticism that our wingers leave the defensive zone too early?

That stat would seem to corroborate that.

More odd-man rushes, but more defensive zone turnovers that lead to goals against.

Oh would you look at that, 5th worst in d zone turnovers.

 

[JD1]

Isn't the criticism that our wingers leave the defensive zone too early?

That stat would seem to corroborate that.

Wingers leaving early corroborating odd man rushes for?

Hmmm. That's not what I see. Typically that winger leaving early results in a stretch pass up that side, looking for a tip. We do see the winger on occasion stop and control the puck to someone coming thru the neutral zone which leads to a controlled entry pass, but with the winter standing still not really an odd man rush.

Odd man rushes I think result more from controlled zone exits.

 

[NyQuil]

Wingers leaving early corroborating odd man rushes for?

Hmmm. That's not what I see. Typically that winger leaving early results in a stretch pass up that side, looking for a tip. We do see the winger on occasion stop and control the puck to someone coming thru the neutral zone which leads to a controlled entry pass, but with the winter standing still not really an odd man rush.

Odd man rushes I think result more from controlled zone exits.

What I'm seeing, is when there's a puck either in no man's land, halfway up the boards, or near the blueline, our wingers gamble that the defenceman or whoever is fighting for puck possession is going to pop it out and take the battling opposing defenceman out of the equation, creating that odd-man situation.

You'll either see both wingers or less often the winger and the centre.

Only if that player loses that puck battle, or can't make the pass or clear, all of a sudden they have a man advantage situation in our own zone with our wingers on the wrong side of the line.

I see this happen a lot. They blow the zone before the controlled exit ever happens.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

How the f*** are we still arguing about DJ Smith of all people.

We were 26th in the league last year, and by adding a bunch of talent that's maxed out our spending, and with the development of young players that have already exceeded expectations, we made it to . . .

21st in the league.


We jumped over exactly ONE team in the division.

Get DJ the f*** out of here so we can all move on. His fans can follow him to whatever junior team he ends up with.

last Season, the Sens finished with a .445 record (Pts%) good for 13th in the Conference……. in the this season, with one game to go, they’re sitting with a .525 record, and sitting at 11th in the Conference.

from 13th in the Conference, to 11th in the Conference, to me seems like there are two more teams below us in the Conference than last year (playoff spots are determined within the Conference)

On paper, that is not enough of an improvement to cheer about, but considering the injuries that kept out key important players, for long periods of the season, I would argue that DJS did the best he could have with all things considered…..is it enough for PD to allow him to begin the next season, on the last year of his contact?

If we get a new coach, that person has to fix Drake Batherson. He needs to be hard on him and get him more engaged, not reward him with an A.

So DJS should have used the stick instead of the carrot?

 

[JD1]

What I'm seeing, is when there's a puck either in no man's land, halfway up the boards, or near the blueline, our wingers gamble that the defenceman or whoever is fighting for puck possession is going to pop it out and take the battling opposing defenceman out of the equation, creating that odd-man situation.

Only if that player loses that puck battle, or can't make the pass or clear, all of a sudden they have a man advantage situation in our own zone with our wingers on the wrong side of the line.

I see this happen a lot.

Ya that's happening, too frequently, but when I think blowing the zone, I'm thinking the winger is at the red line looking for the stretch pass.

I guess I don't equate what your describing as the winger blowing the zone. I view that as more of a lost battle and being on the wrong side of the puck..

 

[NyQuil]

I guess I don't equate what your describing as the winger blowing the zone. I view that as more of a lost battle and being on the wrong side of the puck..

Well, that's really what I'm referring to, so probably just a terminology thing.

When a player turns his back on the play and leaves before the team has controlled possession.

I get that it can create those delicious offensive opportunities, but again, it can lead to a complete collapse of structure in our own zone and a seemingly easy goal for them.

I think we cheat a little too often. It's one thing to do so when you're down and need a goal, but it's seemingly just part of our regular play.

It wouldn't be as bad if we were one of the top scoring teams at even strength, but we're mediocre in that department so it's hard to believe that it's working really well.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Ah yes, the HFSens myth that Chabot has been conditioned to make mistakes because he played too much too often In the past. Come on, that’s bullshit.

Jake can probably handle a handful of games near 30 to round out the season with 4 top four defenders out. It’s good experience, and if we were in the hunt he’d have to carry that load to help keep the ship afloat.

Good D can play those minutes when needed, it’s not going to harm his development, quite the opposite I’d wager.

While correlation doesn't always indicate causation, Chabot's play has been in decline since DJ gave him an insane amount of minutes in lost seasons.

While Sanderson "probably" can handle it, that isn't good enough. There is no benefit in playing him 29 minutes in a game at this point in a lame duck season. Why risk it when you can be finding out how JBD and Kleven stack up against NHL competition?

 

[Alf Silfversson]

What I'm seeing, is when there's a puck either in no man's land, halfway up the boards, or near the blueline, our wingers gamble that the defenceman or whoever is fighting for puck possession is going to pop it out and take the battling opposing defenceman out of the equation, creating that odd-man situation.

You'll either see both wingers or less often the winger and the centre.

Only if that player loses that puck battle, or can't make the pass or clear, all of a sudden they have a man advantage situation in our own zone with our wingers on the wrong side of the line.

I see this happen a lot. They blow the zone before the controlled exit ever happens.

I would also call this blowing the zone early. It reduces the options the defenseman or centre has to pass the puck in our zone. Leads to defensive turnovers. Not to absolve a guy like Chabot but I imagine this must be mentally exhausting.

Point of clarification in many cases this year it is not the winger blowing the zone early. For Batherson and Tkachuk, more often than I care to see, they simply can't blow the defensive zone because they never come back INTO our zone.

 

[bicboi64]

While correlation doesn't always indicate causation, Chabot's play has been in decline since DJ gave him an insane amount of minutes in lost seasons.

While Sanderson "probably" can handle it, that isn't good enough. There is no benefit in playing him 29 minutes in a game at this point in a lame duck season. Why risk it when you can be finding out how JBD and Kleven stack up against NHL competition?

Pretty much this. JBD didn't even play 10 min last game. Nice that Kleven is getting some PP time, but now's the time to play these guys for 16+ minutes to see how they can handle it

 

[Ice-Tray]

While correlation doesn't always indicate causation, Chabot's play has been in decline since DJ gave him an insane amount of minutes in lost seasons.

While Sanderson "probably" can handle it, that isn't good enough. There is no benefit in playing him 29 minutes in a game at this point in a lame duck season. Why risk it when you can be finding out how JBD and Kleven stack up against NHL competition?

We are figuring out about Kleven and JBD though. Moderating their ice time to keep them from being overwhelmed is just as important in my opinion. We’re also trying to continue to play good D for our young goalie, which also can’t be overstated.

Jake isn’t being swamped, he’s managing an increased load due to injury, and there is absolutely a point to it.

Chabots play has hardly ‘been in decline’ since DJ gave him lots of minutes years ago. I don’t believe that correlation for a second. He has had a down season, let’s not try and shoehorn a coaching problem, and decline in play into the situation.

Once again it seems that the internet coaches seem to know exactly what players need and don’t need based on what they see on TV.

I’ll say this, no one is looking at the season like a lame duck season on that team, thankfully. It’s pretty much only the ‘gave up in November’ crew that view things that way. This Team still wants to win every game and plays that way. The minutes are distributed in a way that best helps achieve that goal.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

We are figuring out about Kleven and JBD though. Moderating their ice time to keep them from being overwhelmed is just as important in my opinion. We’re also trying to continue to play good D for our young goalie, which also can’t be overstated.

Jake isn’t being swamped, he’s managing an increased load due to injury, and there is absolutely a point to it.

Chabots play has hardly ‘been in decline’ since DJ gave him lots of minutes years ago. I don’t believe that correlation for a second. He has had a down season, let’s not try and shoehorn a coaching problem, and decline in play into the situation.

Once again it seems that the internet coaches seem to know exactly what players need and don’t need based on what they see on TV.

I’ll say this, no one is looking at the season like a lame duck season on that team, thankfully. It’s pretty much only the ‘gave up in November’ crew that view things that way. This Team still wants to win every game and plays that way. The minutes are distributed in a way that best helps achieve that goal.

I guess you're right. DJ's handling of Chabot has been impeccable. Nothing to see here.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I guess you're right. DJ's handling of Chabot has been impeccable. Nothing to see here.

Well that’s a bit extreme, black and white and such, but ok.

 

[Wondercarrot]

I think we are more talented than the coaching.
If I could make any adjustments, it would be to have the defence activated way more often in the offensive zone. We have the personnel to create chaos in the Ozone with Dmen rotating down low.

As far as the dzone, I guess that’s above my pay grade, but whenever they play with close support, short passes they are very effective.

When they don’t I can see the structure breakdowns but I’m:
1. Not sure who’s responsible, is it players not doing what they are supposed to do? Is it poor initial defensive scheme?
2. As far as blowing the zone, could it be that part of the strategy to ease pressure in the D zone is to have the constant threat of it so it forces the dman to back off?

 

[Sens in Process]

The forwards "blowing the zone" should promote our defensemen having several opportunities for advancing of the puck. Beside rimming it off the glass for a 50/50 puck battles on the right side of the red line or a stretch passes, it gives more opportunity to our mobile defensemen to transport the puck up the ice to lead/support the rush. Time after time, especially in the second half of the season, Brännström took advantaged of the open ice and was rewarded with increased production. Sanderson also jumped up into the play a lot during the season.

I do not believe that stretching out the opposition team's defense is a systemic flaw or wrong in absolute terms. It has its advantages and disadvantages. But any system that promotes Sanderson, Chabot, Brännström and Chychrun to use their skill and generate offense, from a strategic and entertainment perspective, I am down for it.

Contrary to popular belief, DJ has a system and the younger players are learning and adapting to its advantages in creating offense. Injuries, the loss of Formenton, lack of bottom six and D-core depth and goaltending were the undoing of this team. These issues have been or are in the process of being addressed.

The team seems to love DJ. He respects and supports all of them, including guys like Zaitsev who was frequently attacked online. I wouldn't be so quick to give that up.

 

[Micklebot]

Isn't the criticism that our wingers leave the defensive zone too early?

That stat would seem to corroborate that.

More odd-man rushes, but more defensive zone turnovers that lead to goals against.

Yeah, I find anytime you single out one stat you lose focus on the big picture.

The other thing that often gets missed is our lack of consistency, the breakdowns tend to really stand out, and it's what people remember.

How many times was 50 mins of solid play ruined by 10 mins of mayhem?

 

[NyQuil]

Yeah, I find anytime you single out one stat you lose focus on the big picture.

The other thing that often gets missed is our lack of consistency, the breakdowns tend to really stand out, and it's what people remember.

How many times was 50 mins of solid play ruined by 10 mins of mayhem?

This is sort of an interesting table:

https://morehockeystats.com/teams/leadingtrailing

20th in icetime leading.
32nd in icetime tied.
8th in icetime trailing.

In terms of points percentage, we were 21st.

We spent a lot of time losing this season, and very little time tied.

We either score or give up goals with great frequency, likely early in the game given where we are in the tied statistic.

Maybe we turn the puck over so much because we're always losing and always having to try and cheat to get back into the game, only to make things worse.

 

[NyQuil]

In terms of goals by period, breakdown:

GF	GF in P1	GF in P2	GF in P3	GF in OT	GA	GA in P1	GA in P2	GA in P3	GA in OT
256	77	82	91	6	266	84	98	78	6
	15th	22nd	11th	15th		4th	11th	26th	13th

P1: -7
P2: -16
P3: +13

*Note that rankings are in terms of total goals, so for GF it's a good thing and for GA it's a bad thing.

We are one of the worst teams in the league for allowing goals in the 1st period, and one of the best for allowing goals in the 3rd period.

 

[swiftwin]

I think we are more talented than the coaching.
If I could make any adjustments, it would be to have the defence activated way more often in the offensive zone. We have the personnel to create chaos in the Ozone with Dmen rotating down low.

As far as the dzone, I guess that’s above my pay grade, but whenever they play with close support, short passes they are very effective.

When they don’t I can see the structure breakdowns but I’m:
1. Not sure who’s responsible, is it players not doing what they are supposed to do? Is it poor initial defensive scheme?
2. As far as blowing the zone, could it be that part of the strategy to ease pressure in the D zone is to have the constant threat of it so it forces the dman to back off?

I think alot of the defensive breakdowns simply came from inexperienced centers.

People underestimate the important role the center has in the defensive zone. Once Norris went down, we were left with a 20-yr old (Stutzle), two rookies (Pinto & Kastelic) and a 35yr old PTO (Brassard) as 4 of our centers. The only defensively responsible center we had was Gambrell, who sucked offensively, but also didn't give us many defensive breakdowns when he was on the ice. That's probably why DJ liked him alot.

 

[NyQuil]

2. As far as blowing the zone, could it be that part of the strategy to ease pressure in the D zone is to have the constant threat of it so it forces the dman to back off?

I think that's the idea of it.

Except canny defencemen aren't so quick to do so, particularly when the outcome of the clearance or puck battle is still very much in question.

I think that's where the decision-making is off.

A more controlled breakout is when you turn down the opportunity to spring a guy, reset the puck back behind the net and start over with numbers and options going forward.

It's less risky, more boring, but less prone to turnovers when we don't have guys in the right spots.

 

[swiftwin]

I think that's the idea of it.

Except canny defencemen aren't so quick to do so, particularly when the outcome of the clearance or puck battle is still very much in question.

I think that's where the decision-making is off.

A more controlled breakout is when you turn down the opportunity to spring a guy, reset the puck back behind the net and start over with numbers and options going forward.

It's less risky, more boring, but less prone to turnovers when we don't have guys in the right spots.

With a more controlled breakout, you really need your center to be in the right spot at the right time. That puts alot of pressure on some pretty inexperienced centers like Stutzle (20yrs old), Pinto (rookie) and Kastelic (rookie).

As a bonus, the clear & chip at center ice strategy allows us to get the puck in deep in their zone faster, giving us more opportunities to get our smothering forecheck going, which is one of our biggest strengths.

 

[Sens in Process]

More support for DJ:

The Sens are 4th in the league in WAR lost due to injuries.​

The Sens are 4th in the league in WAR lost due to injuries.

 

[NyQuil]

More support for DJ:

The Sens are 4th in the league in WAR lost due to injuries.​

The Sens are 4th in the league in WAR lost due to injuries.

Yeah, there's a whole discussion about this in the polls section.

 

[Sens in Process]

With a more controlled breakout, you really need your center to be in the right spot at the right time. That puts alot of pressure on some pretty inexperienced centers like Stutzle (20yrs old), Pinto (rookie) and Kastelic (rookie).

As a bonus, the clear & chip at center ice strategy allows us to get the puck in deep in their zone faster, giving us more opportunities to get our smothering forecheck going, which is one of our biggest strengths.

Not to mention, Stutlze, as much as I love him, is really careless with the puck at times.

I love how the narrative has gone from - DJ doesn't have system- to its the wrong system.

Pretty telling how the goal posts just keep being moved. No one even mentioned this system design until a tv talking head made reference to it during a broadcast. DJ's system is probably much more nuanced and refined, but we have been provided little detail to properly understand it - are there situational limits? Is it a response to something else not working?

DJ took the Cat and Giroux aside during a practice to implore them to hang onto the puck more, yet is somehow considered an anti-skill coach, despite the team having a plus 93 differential in odd man rushes. This simply does not make sense.

Next year, DJ has adapted his system and now he is good.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

With a more controlled breakout, you really need your center to be in the right spot at the right time. That puts alot of pressure on some pretty inexperienced centers like Stutzle (20yrs old), Pinto (rookie) and Kastelic (rookie).

As a bonus, the clear & chip at center ice strategy allows us to get the puck in deep in their zone faster, giving us more opportunities to get our smothering forecheck going, which is one of our biggest strengths.

Ya see I disagree with the second paragraph. I feel like having only one forward way ahead of the others and tipping it in means we give the the other team's D one free shot of getting the puck out. We have no support on so many of those plays. Having the other 2 Fs lagging behind is one of my pet peeves with that play.

 

[JD1]

I would also call this blowing the zone early. It reduces the options the defenseman or centre has to pass the puck in our zone. Leads to defensive turnovers. Not to absolve a guy like Chabot but I imagine this must be mentally exhausting.

Point of clarification in many cases this year it is not the winger blowing the zone early. For Batherson and Tkachuk, more often than I care to see, they simply can't blow the defensive zone because they never come back INTO our zone.

What @NyQuil referenced is half way up the wall or just at the blue line. To me that's just a board battle

Blowing the zone our W takes their D with him and it's a stretch pass to the W between the red line and the opposing blue line that the W is trying to either to chip into the D zone or control and look for someone coming thru the neutral zone. The opposing D is right with our W on those plays.

What I'm describing is a clear strategy. What NyQuil described also happens but is just poor play on our end. Bad read. Lost battle. Bad zone clears. Young player mistakes.