Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[Sens Vader]

DJ doesn’t tell the players to pass the puck to the other team. Players need to execute as well.

Good coaches get players to execute a system, that’s why the coach runs practices morning skates and video sessions. Repetition leads to execution

That’s literally the difference between good coaches and mediocre ones. Lineup decisions, minute allocation, and how they get their team (through practice and video) to execute their system

 

[DueDiligence]

You’d think the comparison would be first 62 of each year, not the cherry picked one like you pointed out.

Well let me explain the logic to you then. I am talking about how the Senators were trending through most of last season right up until the playoffs.
The Senators were awful in the first 20 games last year. ( 4-15-1) From that time on until the end of the year ( over 3/4 of the season) they were a much better team. ( 29-27-6) Looking at it objectively one could surmise that winning trend would continue this season. When you add in the additions of Giroux and Debrincat , 2 highly skilled players, you could objectively assume that the Senators could actually improve on that trend. As of now they have not.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Good coaches get players to execute a system, that’s why the coach runs practices morning skates and video sessions. Repetition leads to execution

That’s literally the difference between good coaches and mediocre ones. Lineup decisions, minute allocation, and how they get their team (through practice and video) to execute their system

Thanks tips, just they fail to execute sometimes, like all teams, I’m sure they are harping on it though.

 

[Micklebot]

You mean the last 3/4 of last season should have no bearing on what to expect this year? Just a dumb viewpoint on your part.

You seem to have the monopoly on those...

 

[Micklebot]

It is clearly only a save percentage issue

The relationship between this year and last year goals against, yeah I'd say goaltending is by far the biggest factor.

Watch last year's games vs this year's and while there are still issues defensively, there's an obvious improvement to anyone giving a fair assessment.

 

[DueDiligence]

You seem to have the monopoly on those...

I guess you have never heard of a trend before. That is what I was talking about. And it certainly wasn't a "cherry picked " stat.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

things aren’t changing so are you realistically going to trade away 23 players to fix the issue? Is it really down to 1-2 players? I highly doubt it.

Ppl want to defend DJ and it’s fine but the reality in professional sports is that it has always been easier to replace the coach. If players are t up for it now, I fail to see how they’re going to suddenly get up for things with the status quo. And the one thing that has had plenty of opportunity here is DJ.

It’s time to go get an established coach, one we haven’t had since Bryan Murray.

I don't think people are defending DJ to the point that we renew his contract. I think even DJ knows he is on the way out.

 

[Micklebot]

I guess you have never heard of a trend before. That is what I was talking about. And it certainly wasn't a "cherry picked " stat.

Ok, so why did you pick 62 and say 66 like you used for this year's sample? It's pretty obvious what was likely your motivation when looking at last year's schedule and results.

Why did you stop at record and not look at the underlying stats, probably because we rode a goalies hot streak through that stretch, doesn't really jive with the narrative that the team is playing no better though, so the anylsis ended there

I mean, all you had to do is watch the games and it was pretty obvious the difference in how this team plays vs last year's, but there's piles of data to back it up too.

 

[DueDiligence]

Ok, so why did you pick 62 and say 66 like you used for this year's sample? It's pretty obvious what was likely your motivation when looking at last year's schedule and results.

Why did you stop at record and not look at the underlying stats, probably because we rode a goalies hot streak through that stretch, doesn't really jive with the narrative that the team is playing no better though, so the anylsis ended there

I mean, all you had to do is watch the games and it was pretty obvious the difference in how this team plays vs last year's, but there's piles of data to back it up too.

All I did was take away the team's bad start last year. That's it. I didn't select 62 random games throughout the season.
Certainly the final 62 games of last season indicated the young team was beginning to find its way and gel. All indications were that if they remained on that trend they would at worst end up 4-5 games above 500 this season. Now you add in Giroux and Debrincat and trade for an established goalie like Talbot and the team certainly should be appreciably better. Maybe not a playoff team but one that is right there until the first week in April.
So far I have seen change but little improvement overall. A team scoring more goals but also allowing more goals. Poorer at even strength. I think the growth of individual players like Stutzle and BT and the play of Giroux disguise the fact that the team isn't really any better overall. One would think that the team would try to tighten things up with their young goalies in net but they seem incapable of doing so.
Hopefully a change in management and coaching combined with some shrewd player moves will have this team seriously looking at a playoff spot next year.

 

[Big Muddy]

Yeah, I don’t consider these meaningful games late in the season.

We’re at the point now where we at just waiting to be mathematically eliminated with nearly 1/4 of the season left, while having the 2nd easiest schedule through the first 3/4 of the season. 3 losses basically does that.

I guess meaningful games late in the season requires a definition, but I think a lot of people would think it means being in it right until the very end (last game).

 

[swiftwin]

I don't think people are defending DJ to the point that we renew his contract. I think even DJ knows he is on the way out.

Exactly. People have this bizarre notion that defending DJ from terrible braindead takes means wanting to keep him forever and ever and wanting him to win a Jack Adams.

I blame the polarization of politics and the "if you're not with me, you're against me" mentality.

 

[Micklebot]

All I did was take away the team's bad start last year. That's it. I didn't select 62 random games throughout the season.

That's pretty much the definition of cherry picking.... Good lord.

Certainly the final 62 games of last season indicated the young team was beginning to find its way and gel. All indications were that if they remained on that trend they would at worst end up 4-5 games above 500 this season. Now you add in Giroux and Debrincat and trade for an established goalie like Talbot and the team certainly should be appreciably better. Maybe not a playoff team but one that is right there until the first week in April.

Again, you're ignoring how they got that record in those 62 games, Forberg literally put up vezina candidate numbers, .921 sv in his 40 games that stretch, the 2nd and 3rd place for the vezina had .922 and .918 respectively on far better defensive teams.

So far I have seen change but little improvement overall. A team scoring more goals but also allowing more goals. Poorer at even strength. I think the growth of individual players like Stutzle and BT and the play of Giroux disguise the fact that the team isn't really any better overall. One would think that the team would try to tighten things up with their young goalies in net but they seem incapable of doing so.
Hopefully a change in management and coaching combined with some shrewd player moves will have this team seriously looking at a playoff spot next year.

We're actually allowing about the same number of goals in spite of being without either of our top two goalies currently, no not allowing more goals against.

Like, holy hell the spinning you're doing to try and justify that a team that after 66 games is 3 pts aways from matching last year's end of season total isn't any better...

 

[DueDiligence]

That's pretty much the definition of cherry picking.... Good lord.

A stretch of 62 straight games to the end of the season is the definition of "cherry picking" ??? Whatever you say!

 

[Micklebot]

A stretch of 62 straight games to the end of the season is the definition of "cherry picking" ??? Whatever you say!

Yeah, removing the poor start is cherry picking, you selected a sample the benefits your argument, then compared it to the full sample of this year's games. It's pretty much a textbook example.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The relationship between this year and last year goals against, yeah I'd say goaltending is by far the biggest factor.

Watch last year's games vs this year's and while there are still issues defensively, there's an obvious improvement to anyone giving a fair assessment.

I disagree. Is there an improvement? Sure. A big enough improvement? No. Expected a pretty solid leap in defence. Don’t think we’ve gotten a solid leap

 

[coladin]

Fascinating conversation here.
It took the NHLs 2nd best record over what? 2 months? To get us where? let’s see…3 or 4 meaningful games? lol (don’t get me wrong I loved them) but how about a reality check.
We are currently picking 11th.
We picked 7th last year, 10th the year before.

We now enter a very difficult part of the schedule, anyone here think after the next 7 games think we will be higher in the standings?

I like DJ, but for those people looking in every direction but his, is there any condition under which you think there should be a coaching change?
He’s already had a longer leash than any other coach with this kind of record over this many years rebuild or not.
It’s like saying coaches are irrelevant so why bother changing them. What exactly is it that makes DJ so exceptional in your minds? Track record in the NHL? Some strategy he is deploying? His in game adjustments? Bench management? Is he master of line matching?

What is so irreplaceable about DJ Smith, I’d be fascinated to know.

Ultimately, his failure to get the players to stop cheating. That’s basically it. Accountability was very hard to come by when there is no one pushing the players you need to drop down the lineup. But still, when losing , taking minutes away from repeat offenders would have been warranted

 

[DueDiligence]

Yeah, removing the poor start is cherry picking, you selected a sample the benefits your argument, then compared it to the full sample of this year's games. It's pretty much a textbook example.

No it isn't professor. Not sure if you use stats in your "real " life but you are wrong.

 

[Micklebot]

I disagree. Is there an improvement? Sure. A big enough improvement? No. Expected a pretty solid leap in defence. Don’t think we’ve gotten a solid leap

With last year's sv% at 5v5 we'd have allowed 17 fewer goals

So yeah, the fact that our 5v5 goal diff is -25 while last year we finished -28 is mostly the difference in sv%

 

[Burrowsaurus]

With last year's sv% at 5v5 we'd have allowed 17 fewer goals

So yeah, the fact that our 5v5 goal diff is -25 while last year we finished -28 is mostly the difference in sv%

I didn’t expect forsberg to play out of his mind again. Did you?
Modes to really change how our defence looks…

 

[Micklebot]

No it isn't professor. Not sure if you use stats in your "real " life but you are wrong.

You literally admitted to selecting a sample intentionally to omit the portion of the season that doesn't support your position, so yeah, it is cherry picking. You deliberately removed the portion of the data that wasn't beneficial to your position

 

[Micklebot]

I didn’t expect forsberg to play out of his mind again. Did you?
Modes to really change how our defence looks…

??? That's my point, our goal differential being similar to last year's is only because Forberg played out of his mind last year.

The whole thing started with someone comparing last year's goal differential to this year's, the reason it's close is because of Forsberg.

 

[Tuna99]

You literally admitted to selecting a sample intentionally to omit the portion of the season that doesn't support your position, so yeah, it is cherry picking. You deliberately removed the portion of the data that wasn't beneficial to your position

I think November is the story of this season, they were also sketchy for many days in December.

The Sens were really bad for 40 days and it cost them the playoffs in a 180 day season

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Exactly. People have this bizarre notion that defending DJ from terrible braindead takes means wanting to keep him forever and ever and wanting him to win a Jack Adams.

I blame the polarization of politics and the "if you're not with me, you're against me" mentality.

Yup.

It makes no sense to fire him now anyway. Doubtful the board would approve severance, and definitely hiring someone new now is out of the question, as new owners would not want any 3 year contracts to deal with if the do want to bring in a fresh coaching staff.

 

[coladin]

Well let me explain the logic to you then. I am talking about how the Senators were trending through most of last season right up until the playoffs.
The Senators were awful in the first 20 games last year. ( 4-15-1) From that time on until the end of the year ( over 3/4 of the season) they were a much better team. ( 29-27-6) Looking at it objectively one could surmise that winning trend would continue this season. When you add in the additions of Giroux and Debrincat , 2 highly skilled players, you could objectively assume that the Senators could actually improve on that trend. As of now they have not.

And how competitive was the Eastern Conference this year? How many doormats are there compared to last year?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

??? That's my point, our goal differential being similar to last year's is only because Forberg played out of his mind last year.

The whole thing started with someone comparing last year's goal differential to this year's, the reason it's close is because of Forsberg.

So we agree our defence is still bad ?