MatthewFlames
Registered User
State of the League:
* all final total exclude playoff revenue & endorsement revenue.
Teams in the RED
None (trading for money has started!)
Teams will finish in the RED
Bruins (-3.4 million) - (No playoff revenue. 7.5 max endo - Finish 4 (max))
Devils (-3.2) - (will make playoffs - 6.5 endorsements - max 10. Finish - 3+ million)
Jets (-760K) - (Unlikely playoff revenue. 7.5 Max endo - Finish 7 (max))
Flames (-300K) - (no playoff revenue - 10.5 max endo - Finish 10 (max))
Wild (-950K) - (will make playoffs - 7.5 max endo - Finish 10+)
Teams to finish under $10 million
Penguins (7)
Rangers (4)
Capitals (2)
Blackhawks (7)
Blue Jackets (2)
Coyotes (5)
Sharks (5)
Teams to finish under $20 million
Canadiens (17)
Leafs (12)
Sabres (18)
Senators (10)
Hurricanes (17)
Lightning (18)
Oilers (15)
Ducks (16)
Neutral (20-40)
Islanders (21)
Panthers (22)
Predators (21)
Red Wings (34)
Avalanche (25)
Kings (32)
Stars (27)
Healthy (40+)
Flyers (48)
Blues (52)
Canucks (47)
While this is just a snapshot of today, it should noted that we have gone from 18 teams at less than 20 million to 20 teams (from when I did this mid-season last year). We've also lost two teams from the above $40 million+ category, and two teams from the $50 million+ category.
Endorsements
I have long argued that endorsements hurt the poor teams. Yet I constantly get told that endorsements make up for revenue losses and are how poor teams overcome being poor.
23 Teams applied for endorsements. I know that 2 chose not to do endorsements because of the lack of initial funds. 4 others - who knows (Robb just doesn't gamble, even in his fake life)
AVG COST per TEAM: $3,673,913
AVG MAX PAYOUT per TEAM: $10,282,608
Endorsements by teams with under $20 in the bank (10 of the 23)
AVG COST: $2,300,000 (1.3 million less than average)
AVG MAX PAYOUT: $7,100,000 (3 million less than average)
If you add in the two teams that didn't do endorsements - and will get zero -
The average payout for endorsements by poor teams is only $5,916,667.
Endorsements by teams with over $20 mil in the bank (13)
AVG COST: $4,730,769
AVG MAX PAYOUT: $12,730,769
Poor teams average $5.9 million, rich teams average $12.7 million.
It should be noted also that rich teams perform better and probably hit more of the endorsements while poor teams don't and therefore won't get the max as often. Below are stats relating to poor teams making the playoffs for perspective
Playoffs
There would seem to be a correlation to the ability to make the playoffs and money. I'll look at it from two perspectives. The first is finances versus playoffs (therefore the immediate probability to generate playoff revenue and improve the financial position of the franchise)
Poor Teams/Playoffs
Bruins (-3.4 million) - NO
Devils (-3.2) - YES
Jets (760K) - NO
Flames (300K) - NO
Wild (950K) - YES
Penguins (7) - NO
Rangers (4) - YES
Capitals (2) - NO
Blackhawks (7) - NO
Blue Jackets (2) - YES
Coyotes (5) - NO
Sharks (5) - NO
Only 4 out of the 12 teams in financial trouble are in a playoff spot.
3 are bubble teams who may still make it (fingers crossed!)
CAP versus PLAYOFF position
AVG league wide CAP $55,835,933
Playoff Teams: $58,994,250
Non Playoff Teams: $52,226,428
Difference is an average of 6.7 million dollars.
The more you spend - the better chance you have of being in the playoffs.
The $40 million dollar roster theory
This one if my favorite. Get a sub 40 million dollar roster and you'll make money.
Lets look at the facts.
Only the Capitals and the Lightning have $40 million or sub $40 million rosters. They are two of the three worst teams in the standings.
The Senators, Flames, Penguins, Jets, and Flyers have sub $50 million rosters.
ONLY the Flyers are in a playoff spot (in 8th).
Only the Flyers stand to make extra revenue if they can hang onto that playoff spot. They are a team with a health bank balance anyway. Ironic.
So, will any of these 7 teams with sub $40 or sub $50 million actually make a profit?
The sub 40's - Capitals (just traded for a million and is shedding more salary too) - to be fair they carried a larger cap, closer to 50 for most of the year. Initial Bank: $4 million. Projected: $2.2. Capitals have no endorsement revenue because they made the judgement call that they couldn't afford to gamble any money. NET LOSS 2 million (incl. cash infusions)
The sub 40's - Lightning. Initial Bank: $14. Projected: 18.5. Endorsements Max $4. NET PROFIT $8.5 million (probably could have been higher if endorsements were better managed.)
The sub 50's - Senators. Initial Bank: $10.5 Projected: $10.9 Endorsements: 5.5 Max. NET PROFIT: $6 Max.
The sub 50's - Penguins. Initial Bank: $7.4 Projected: $7.1 Endorsements: Zero. NET LOSS 300K
The sub 50's - Flames. Initial Bank: 6.4 Projected: -300K. Endorsements: $12. NET PROFIT $6
The sub 50's - Jets. Initial Bank: $9 Projected: -$700K. Endorsements: $7.5 MAX NET LOSS $2.3
The sub 50's - Flyers. $55.5 Projected: $48.8 Endorsements: $10 max Playoffs 2.4 Min NET PROFIT $5.4+
RECAP
Making revenue within the regular season sim doesn't happen (except for the TBL and their 39 million dollar payroll)
Revenue generation comes from:
1) Playoff revenue
Only 1 out of every 3 poor teams will make the playoffs.
Teams who spend closer to the cap make the playoffs, teams that don't fail to make the playoffs.
Therefore rich teams can carry big caps and continue to make the playoffs.
2) Endorsements
But poor teams can't gamble funds, don't gamble them, or hedge their bets by opting in to fewer and cheaper endorsements.
Poor teams make 7 million on average less than rich teams.
Endorsements do not really help poor teams that much. No more than 3 home games revenue.
So, with extra revenue so hard to generate by poor teams - and even sub 50 million dollar rosters a hit and miss... Unless the Flyers go deep, they won't make more than 10 million profit. Even the Flames, Lightning & Sens can only make 6 - 8.5 million profit.
I know for the Flames we'll only have 1 of our Mountain Due and will probably miss another endorsement too - so we will actually only make about 1-3 million profit all told this year. 20 years till we can afford a real roster again!
If you consider that $20-$25 million is safe ground, that means poor teams who manage well will still need to remain poor for at least 3 to 5 more years before they can start to be able to afford increasing salary. Even then, one year of missed playoffs and they start the 5 year cycle all over again (which is what happened to the Flames).
-
* all final total exclude playoff revenue & endorsement revenue.
Teams in the RED
None (trading for money has started!)
Teams will finish in the RED
Bruins (-3.4 million) - (No playoff revenue. 7.5 max endo - Finish 4 (max))
Devils (-3.2) - (will make playoffs - 6.5 endorsements - max 10. Finish - 3+ million)
Jets (-760K) - (Unlikely playoff revenue. 7.5 Max endo - Finish 7 (max))
Flames (-300K) - (no playoff revenue - 10.5 max endo - Finish 10 (max))
Wild (-950K) - (will make playoffs - 7.5 max endo - Finish 10+)
Teams to finish under $10 million
Penguins (7)
Rangers (4)
Capitals (2)
Blackhawks (7)
Blue Jackets (2)
Coyotes (5)
Sharks (5)
Teams to finish under $20 million
Canadiens (17)
Leafs (12)
Sabres (18)
Senators (10)
Hurricanes (17)
Lightning (18)
Oilers (15)
Ducks (16)
Neutral (20-40)
Islanders (21)
Panthers (22)
Predators (21)
Red Wings (34)
Avalanche (25)
Kings (32)
Stars (27)
Healthy (40+)
Flyers (48)
Blues (52)
Canucks (47)
While this is just a snapshot of today, it should noted that we have gone from 18 teams at less than 20 million to 20 teams (from when I did this mid-season last year). We've also lost two teams from the above $40 million+ category, and two teams from the $50 million+ category.
Endorsements
I have long argued that endorsements hurt the poor teams. Yet I constantly get told that endorsements make up for revenue losses and are how poor teams overcome being poor.
23 Teams applied for endorsements. I know that 2 chose not to do endorsements because of the lack of initial funds. 4 others - who knows (Robb just doesn't gamble, even in his fake life)
AVG COST per TEAM: $3,673,913
AVG MAX PAYOUT per TEAM: $10,282,608
Endorsements by teams with under $20 in the bank (10 of the 23)
AVG COST: $2,300,000 (1.3 million less than average)
AVG MAX PAYOUT: $7,100,000 (3 million less than average)
If you add in the two teams that didn't do endorsements - and will get zero -
The average payout for endorsements by poor teams is only $5,916,667.
Endorsements by teams with over $20 mil in the bank (13)
AVG COST: $4,730,769
AVG MAX PAYOUT: $12,730,769
Poor teams average $5.9 million, rich teams average $12.7 million.
It should be noted also that rich teams perform better and probably hit more of the endorsements while poor teams don't and therefore won't get the max as often. Below are stats relating to poor teams making the playoffs for perspective
Playoffs
There would seem to be a correlation to the ability to make the playoffs and money. I'll look at it from two perspectives. The first is finances versus playoffs (therefore the immediate probability to generate playoff revenue and improve the financial position of the franchise)
Poor Teams/Playoffs
Bruins (-3.4 million) - NO
Devils (-3.2) - YES
Jets (760K) - NO
Flames (300K) - NO
Wild (950K) - YES
Penguins (7) - NO
Rangers (4) - YES
Capitals (2) - NO
Blackhawks (7) - NO
Blue Jackets (2) - YES
Coyotes (5) - NO
Sharks (5) - NO
Only 4 out of the 12 teams in financial trouble are in a playoff spot.
3 are bubble teams who may still make it (fingers crossed!)
CAP versus PLAYOFF position
AVG league wide CAP $55,835,933
Playoff Teams: $58,994,250
Non Playoff Teams: $52,226,428
Difference is an average of 6.7 million dollars.
The more you spend - the better chance you have of being in the playoffs.
The $40 million dollar roster theory
This one if my favorite. Get a sub 40 million dollar roster and you'll make money.
Lets look at the facts.
Only the Capitals and the Lightning have $40 million or sub $40 million rosters. They are two of the three worst teams in the standings.
The Senators, Flames, Penguins, Jets, and Flyers have sub $50 million rosters.
ONLY the Flyers are in a playoff spot (in 8th).
Only the Flyers stand to make extra revenue if they can hang onto that playoff spot. They are a team with a health bank balance anyway. Ironic.
So, will any of these 7 teams with sub $40 or sub $50 million actually make a profit?
The sub 40's - Capitals (just traded for a million and is shedding more salary too) - to be fair they carried a larger cap, closer to 50 for most of the year. Initial Bank: $4 million. Projected: $2.2. Capitals have no endorsement revenue because they made the judgement call that they couldn't afford to gamble any money. NET LOSS 2 million (incl. cash infusions)
The sub 40's - Lightning. Initial Bank: $14. Projected: 18.5. Endorsements Max $4. NET PROFIT $8.5 million (probably could have been higher if endorsements were better managed.)
The sub 50's - Senators. Initial Bank: $10.5 Projected: $10.9 Endorsements: 5.5 Max. NET PROFIT: $6 Max.
The sub 50's - Penguins. Initial Bank: $7.4 Projected: $7.1 Endorsements: Zero. NET LOSS 300K
The sub 50's - Flames. Initial Bank: 6.4 Projected: -300K. Endorsements: $12. NET PROFIT $6
The sub 50's - Jets. Initial Bank: $9 Projected: -$700K. Endorsements: $7.5 MAX NET LOSS $2.3
The sub 50's - Flyers. $55.5 Projected: $48.8 Endorsements: $10 max Playoffs 2.4 Min NET PROFIT $5.4+
RECAP
Making revenue within the regular season sim doesn't happen (except for the TBL and their 39 million dollar payroll)
Revenue generation comes from:
1) Playoff revenue
Only 1 out of every 3 poor teams will make the playoffs.
Teams who spend closer to the cap make the playoffs, teams that don't fail to make the playoffs.
Therefore rich teams can carry big caps and continue to make the playoffs.
2) Endorsements
But poor teams can't gamble funds, don't gamble them, or hedge their bets by opting in to fewer and cheaper endorsements.
Poor teams make 7 million on average less than rich teams.
Endorsements do not really help poor teams that much. No more than 3 home games revenue.
So, with extra revenue so hard to generate by poor teams - and even sub 50 million dollar rosters a hit and miss... Unless the Flyers go deep, they won't make more than 10 million profit. Even the Flames, Lightning & Sens can only make 6 - 8.5 million profit.
I know for the Flames we'll only have 1 of our Mountain Due and will probably miss another endorsement too - so we will actually only make about 1-3 million profit all told this year. 20 years till we can afford a real roster again!
If you consider that $20-$25 million is safe ground, that means poor teams who manage well will still need to remain poor for at least 3 to 5 more years before they can start to be able to afford increasing salary. Even then, one year of missed playoffs and they start the 5 year cycle all over again (which is what happened to the Flames).
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