Prospect Info: Filip Mesar

[WeThreeKings]

No, I'm bashing them for liking Mesar's "potential."

OK, then they will bash you for liking Kotkaniemi's "potential". Everyone goes home and realizes they got an evaluation wrong.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Mesar is an excellent skater, arguably the best skater in that draft. He has fantastic speed and extremely good on his edges. He's also a very good playmaker. The issue he's having is he gets pushed off the puck too easily, a lot of the time before he finds an outlet for a pass. To me, he'd be a great complimentary player for a line with good chemistry. In his draft he was absolutely a 1st rounder. But sometimes they don't pan out. I'm willing to give him another training camp to see if he can find someone to play with.

The issue with Mesar is mainly between his ears as his effort is extremely inconsistent and he lives on the perimeter which is tough for a player who does not score from distance and doesn't have the size or reach to protect the puck while trying to find passing lanes.

I would say that asserting that he was arguably the best skater in the 2022 draft is a stretch with Cooley, Kimmell, Savoie as other obvious candidates for this title without even having to really think about, and I think Beck is right there as well. I do get what you are saying as he is a very good skater but he is not necessarily an elite skater that would challenge to be the best skater in most leagues. I would certainly label him as one of the better skaters in that draft but it is purely hyperbolic to suggest that he may be the best as he would be in such a large swath of prospects who technically could have the same said about themselves as well.

He has been a disappointment as he has not impressed in any of his post draft seasons as does not appear to have the drive to do what he needs to do to become a legitimate NHL asset. I could very well be wrong as we are talking about a young man who by nature could turn his whole outlook on life around on a dime but from what he has shown so far, he is trending towards busting and a career in Europe.

I defended him early in his career as a Hab prospect but he seemingly has not improved much at all and looks no more like a pro today than he did when he first came to the OHL. He still has the same flaws and concerns and has not built up any facet of his game. I suspect he just isn't putting in the work in the off season to get better and that is a fatal flaw that is very common among good prospects who bust.

 

[TomKosto]

OK, then they will bash you for liking Kotkaniemi's "potential". Everyone goes home and realizes they got an evaluation wrong.

Lets just say the KK draft mistake is way bigger than the Mesar draft mistake lmfao.

(It’s not a hit directed at the poster but at Habs managment)

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Lets just say the KK draft mistake is way bigger than the Mesar draft mistake lmfao.

(It’s not a hit directed at the poster but at Habs managment)

The KK miss was enormous.....although we likely would not have Demidov if we chose Tkachuk or Hughes. That being said, the 2018 draft has all sorts of top picks that busted and KK is 9th in scoring from that draft so maybe not as bad as it looks especially if they were pondering Zadina instead.

Zadina was the popular choice on this board as Tkachuk got all sorts of silly hate because of his lack of goals and Hughes due to his size.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Lets just say the KK draft mistake is way bigger than the Mesar draft mistake lmfao.

(It’s not a hit directed at the poster but at Habs managment)

And i chose an example of someone I also got wrong, because I'm not trying to do a pissing match.

Scouts get players wrong. I'm sure they've already discussed things about their process leading to them taking him over other guys in a similar tier.

It's just funny to nitpick it when the argument is they took the player 40 spots later and are on video record projecting him being available there.

 

[DAChampion]

The KK miss was enormous.....although we likely would not have Demidov if we chose Tkachuk or Hughes. That being said, the 2018 draft has all sorts of top picks that busted and KK is 9th in scoring from that draft so maybe not as bad as it looks especially if they were pondering Zadina instead.

Zadina was the popular choice on this board as Tkachuk got all sorts of silly hate because of his lack of goals and Hughes due to his size.

I think that Kotkaniemi might have been better with one year in Liiga and one year in the AHL.

The reason that he started in the NHL was the most ridiculous possible reason: that the Habs needed a center. It doesn't get dumber and more short sighted than that. And he actually did well at first ! Until the coaches started punishing him to play Nate Thompson, which yielded no benefit.

What I did see in 12 or so games of watching him in the AHL until he got the spleen injury is that his confidence was skyrocketing, he was getting more aggressive, shooting more, doing more for checking, etc while centering Charles Hudson and Jake Evans. That's where learning happens, when one is confident, challenged but not dying, and one has the responsibility of being the man, maximum neural conditions get made in those circumstances. And he improved and peaked in those COVID playoffs against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

But he should have spent two years in a learning phase prior to making the NHL.

 

[DAChampion]

And i chose an example of someone I also got wrong, because I'm not trying to do a pissing match.

Scouts get players wrong. I'm sure they've already discussed things about their process leading to them taking him over other guys in a similar tier.

It's just funny to nitpick it when the argument is they took the player 40 spots later and are on video record projecting him being available there.

Personally I know that if I was a scout I'd bat 1.000.

I'm just really good at judging people. I've never gone on a date with a woman with whom I did not turn out to be a great match, and I've never hired anybody for a job who didn't work out. It's easy I say.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Personally I know that if I was a scout I'd bat 1.000.

I'm just really good at judging people. I've never gone on a date with a woman with whom I did not turn out to be a great match, and I've never hired anybody for a job who didn't work out. It's easy I say.

A man who was taught everything he knows from Estimated Prophet.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I think that Kotkaniemi might have been better with one year in Liiga and one year in the AHL.

The reason that he started in the NHL was the most ridiculous possible reason: that the Habs needed a center. It doesn't get dumber and more short sighted than that. And he actually did well at first ! Until the coaches started punishing him to play Nate Thompson, which yielded no benefit.

What I did see in 12 or so games of watching him in the AHL until he got the spleen injury is that his confidence was skyrocketing, he was getting more aggressive, shooting more, doing more for checking, etc while centering Charles Hudson and Jake Evans. That's where learning happens, when one is confident, challenged but not dying, and one has the responsibility of being the man, maximum neural conditions get made in those circumstances. And he improved and peaked in those COVID playoffs against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

But he should have spent two years in a learning phase prior to making the NHL.

As you may know, I generally do not subscribe to these notions of ruining a player. They are for the most part are going to be what they are going to be and KK just isn't a high skill player with clumsy skating. Development has almost always been more about expediting a players ascension to their best version and that generally would mean that they are more useful while on cheaper contracts. Development has rarel ruined a player or made them into a star but definitely expedited the journey in many cases.

I believe that development is starting to take a turn towards making a tangible difference in a players ceiling as there is a much better understanding on how to develop skills and more importantly IQ.

 

[DAChampion]

A man who was taught everything he knows from Estimated Prophet.

It was a joke ...

 

[NotProkofievian]

OK, then they will bash you for liking Kotkaniemi's "potential". Everyone goes home and realizes they got an evaluation wrong.

Okay Boqvist boy.

 

[WeThreeKings]

It was a joke ...

My reply was a joke too.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

The downside to missing out on Hutson is way more significant than the difference between Mesar vs 64th overall

Not a risk I would take but who cares it worked out

 

[DAChampion]

As you may know, I generally do not subscribe to these notions of ruining a player. They are for the most part are going to be what they are going to be and KK just isn't a high skill player with clumsy skating. Development has almost always been more about expediting a players ascension to their best version and that generally would mean that they are more useful while on cheaper contracts. Development has rarel ruined a player or made them into a star but definitely expedited the journey in many cases.

I believe that development is starting to take a turn towards making a tangible difference in a players ceiling as there is a much better understanding on how to develop skills and more importantly IQ.

Yours is the mainstream view on this, and you have more athletic experience.

I don't agree for a variety of reasons, though I'm most annoyed by the fact that it seems impossible to prove either way, so perhaps people will argue about it indefinitely.

I think an example of a player that is a supportive argument of your view is Patrick Laine. He's elite because... He's genetically superior. I think he scored 45 NHL goals in his D+1. "Development" in his case arguably just means avoiding injury and not getting fat.

But a counterexample would be Nick Suzuki. He's a vastly, vastly better today than he was in his D+1, and that trajectory has actually been gradual, where he's gotten better virtually every year. What I see in his case, is that he's very smart, and the more he's played the more neural connections he's made in his brain. He also needed to avoid injury and not get fat, but in addition he needed lots and lots of competitive playing time, which he got to play from a position of confidence and visualizing victory rather than fear and visualizing benching.

I spoke about this with my therapist in a different context last week. In all fields of human activity, an extended period of obsession is a precursor for genuine excellence.