Prospect Info: Filip Mesar

[overlords]

TAKE THIS HATERS!

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836797513405268265

Good for them to create chemistry now given they're both buried in the ahl together for the next 3 years

 

[CHwest]

Just because he puts up more goals than assists, doesn’t mean he’s a playmaker. At the junior level as an over-ager? Maybe, but still a stretch to call him that. He’s barely managing a point per game in the OHL, and again, he’s over age.

All we’ve heard so far about his lack of production (from a supposedly offensive forward, mind you), is “oh it’s his line mates; they have no chemistry” and “his line mates don’t keep up with him”. He’s even said it himself in interviews, which doesn’t look good on him either, tbh.

As the “playmaker”, isn’t he supposed to “make the plays”, and make his line mates better? That’s what good players do. He isn’t doing that. The reality is that it isn’t his line mates; he just doesn’t have the IQ he was purported to have.

And he stays on the perimeter instead of getting involved in the play and making things happen like he should. Perimeter players need to have a lethal shot and/or elite vision to be effective; he doesn’t have either.

I’ll be absolutely shocked if he ever makes the NHL full time after what we’ve seen so far.

Come on there is only one poster saying that.

 

[Bombshell11]

Come on there is only one poster saying that.

Mmmm pretty sure many have voiced that opinion by now, alot from the kitchener community

 

[stenlis]

Go and look at the draft pages for the first round in years past (excluding recent drafts, obviously). There’s some variance of course, but most years, the overwhelming majority of players make the NHL in a significant capacity.

Let's look at #26 draftees from 10 years prior to Mesar:
2012 Brendan Gaunce, rotation/ backup center.
2013 Shea Theodore, good NHL dman
2014 Nikita Scherbak, playing 3rd tier Euro leagues now.
2015 Noah Juulsen, 7th dman in Canucks
2016 Tage Thompson, great player that didn't break into the NHL until D+6 season.
2017 Jake Oettinger, good NHL goalie for Stars
2018 Jacob Bernard-Docker, 3rd pair dman with the Sens
2019 Jakob Pelletier, still in rotation with the Flames
2020 Jake Neighbours, had a promising second season with the Blues
2021 Carson Cambros, had a quiet first season in the AHL

So out of these 10 players:
- one is now a star forward but was traded away from the team that drafted him after unassuming first handful of seasons
- one is a starting goalie, Dallas have hit the jackpot with this one
- 2 are mid tier NHL players
- 1 still in development
- 4 are NHL backups
- 1 is not good enough for the Slovak league

All in all Mesar fits into the mold above. Only three players did better than him in their D+2 seasons: Tage Thompson scoring 0.6 PPG in the AHL, Neighbors posting 1.5 PPG in WHL and Oettinger posting .926 SV% in college.

I'd say give him a stint at the AHL and see whether he can play with the big boys. The problem with him is that he's never going to be a 4th line type of player. He's either going to have to prove he's good enough for the middle six or he's going back to Europe. I wouldn't be that surprised if he did well in the AHL. He had already played 2 full seasons pro league back home and did great for a 17 year old. Maybe his slightly underwhelming performance in North America is due to adjusting to life abroad.

 

[McGees]

Was this your feeling before Tony said it on his podcast or after?

yes.
Sorry I wanted Kulich and looking like that was the pick.

 

[ZUKI]

Come on there is only one poster saying that.

probably a Leafs fan....

 

[BLONG7]

TAKE THIS HATERS!

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836797513405268265

There is no hating going on...................the kid so far since his selection in the 1st round has him as just ok. He is what he is at this point............no excuses.
Let's hope he gets it going real soon, so we all see some of his talent.

 

[LaP]

25-32 impact players(And I'm being generous with impact)

2010: Kuznetsov, Coyle, Nelson
2011: Danault, Rakell, Namestnikov
2012: Skjei, Pearson
2013: Theodore, Hartman
2014: Pastrnak, Kempe
2015: Roslovic, Beauvillier
2016: Thompson, Frederic
2017: Oettinger, Frost, Jokiharju, Tolvanen
2018: Sandin
2019+ too early

21 players worth mentioning with 5 studs out of 72 picks(29%). Hitting at the end of the first round is the exception, not what you should expect.

I would not call 29% an exception. 3-5% is an exception.

 

[Fatbiggie]

Probably have to give the 87 draft the nod.

In terms of their careers:

LeClaire > Pacioretty
Desjardins > McDonagh
Schneider > Subban
Cassells >>>> Y. Weber

Definitively a mistake trading Cassels. For some odd reason I still remember him playing for the Habs even though he played very little with us.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Bruh... the logic in here is insane, honestly hard to fathom.

Regardless of Mesar - are we really saying that late 1sts can't be called busts now? People have been calling McCarron, Tinordi, Scherbak, etc busts for years

Also, again regardless of Mesar, the idea that a guy who can't play in the NHL can still be considered a good pick because he fits team needs is ridiculous.

I just can't agree with any of those arguments.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Bruh... the logic in here is insane, honestly hard to fathom.

Regardless of Mesar - are we really saying that late 1sts can't be called busts now? People have been calling McCarron, Tinordi, Scherbak, etc busts for years

Also, again regardless of Mesar, the idea that a guy who can't play in the NHL can still be considered a good pick because he fits team needs is ridiculous.

I just can't agree with any of those arguments.

For me a bust is someone who wildly underperformed their draft slot. Like calling a 7th round pick a bust would be technically correct but most of those picks "bust", where I would say a 7th round pick like Kieran Ruscheinski is a bust and someone like Dmitri Sokolov wouldn't be.

Mesar getting an elc and playing in the AHL maybe getting some NHL games wouldn't really be a bust, it's more like the expected outcome. Where as someone like Connor Bleakley who didn't even get signed as a 1st round pick would be a bust.

Regardless of how someone wants to define a bust, it's way too early to declare Mesar a bust and I find crying over the pick completely unreasonable considering the trend line of every other pick we've made in that draft with a few exceptions later in the class.

Tampa Bay picked Koekkoek at 10 the same draft they took Vasilevskiy later in round 1. You don't see their fans crying and bitching about the one pick that didn't work out.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

For me a bust is someone who wildly underperformed their draft slot. Like calling a 7th round pick a bust would be technically correct but most of those picks "bust", where I would say a 7th round pick like Kieran Ruscheinski is a bust and someone like Dmitri Sokolov wouldn't be.

Mesar getting an elc and playing in the AHL maybe getting some NHL games wouldn't really be a bust, it's more like the expected outcome. Where as someone like Connor Bleakley who didn't even get signed as a 1st round pick would be a bust.

Regardless of how someone wants to define a bust, it's way too early to declare Mesar a bust and I find crying over the pick completely unreasonable considering the trend line of every other pick we've made in that draft with a few exceptions later in the class.

Tampa Bay picked Koekkoek at 10 the same draft they took Vasilevskiy later in round 1. You don't see their fans crying and bitching about the one pick that didn't work out.

You don't see Tampa fans jumping through hoops to rationalize that Koekkoek was actually a good pick though.

I agree with the rest of your post, too soon to call him a bust, but we've seen enough where we don't need to pretend that his performance is as good as we hoped.

As for the "bust" argument. I can give you that, define bust however you want to, no need to argue semantics. But this is HF Boards, and it is a lot easier to call some prospects busts than it is qualify every statement about a poor performing prospect with "relative to their draft position nothing was really expected of them anyway".

There's literally 15 pages of you calling players busts if you search it up.

 

[WeThreeKings]

You don't see Tampa fans jumping through hoops to rationalize that Koekkoek was actually a good pick though.

I agree with the rest of your post, too soon to call him a bust, but we've seen enough where we don't need to pretend that his performance is as good as we hoped.

As for the "bust" argument. I can give you that, define bust however you want to, no need to argue semantics. But this is HF Boards, and it is a lot easier to call some prospects busts than it is qualify every statement about a poor performing prospect with "relative to their draft position nothing was really expected of them anyway".

There's literally 15 pages of you calling players busts if you search it up.

Yeah there is cause I've been here since 2006 and I've certainly changed my perspective on things over time.

I'm sure you can find plenty of posts rationalizing the Koekkoek pick while he was still developing.

What we have in Mesar is periods of absolute dominance and high skill, with periods of no production and uninspired play.

We don't know what he will be yet because he could find that consistency and be a very good offensive forward. Or he could remain inconsistent and be a Euro league player.

It's way too early and there's been enough encouraging moments to warrant being patient before casting judgement here. He has tools and there have been more than enough instances where the tools are working in concert with his effort and playing the right way to imagine what he could be if he puts it all together.

Most don't. That's the nature of the draft. But he's still the profile of a prospect this board begged Bergevin to take and now that we took one and it's not a resounding success out the gate, a lot of people are acting like it was this nepotism pick on a guy tagged to go in the 3rd round.

None of that is true.

 

[Miller Time]

Bruh... the logic in here is insane, honestly hard to fathom.

Regardless of Mesar - are we really saying that late 1sts can't be called busts now? People have been calling McCarron, Tinordi, Scherbak, etc busts for years

Also, again regardless of Mesar, the idea that a guy who can't play in the NHL can still be considered a good pick because he fits team needs is ridiculous.

I just can't agree with any of those arguments.

?
Few, if any, were calling any of those 3 a "bust" at the start of their respective D3 seasons... Go ahead and search it up.

That's were this post falls terribly flat. The negativity around Mesar from some posters is atypical even for Habs fans & this board. His actual play in D1 & D2, relative to his draft spot, gives no rational or precedent based reason for why some posters are crying and whining the way they are.

Your argument holds very little merit.

 

[Habs]

I don't see anything special at all, sometimes people are just searching for things to applaud a player about. A small winger with decent hands and speed, most likely AHL bound are those really hard to find on the waiver wire or in the 4-7th rounds?

I'm not saying he blows, but he isn't anything special at this point either to differentiate himself from all the other kids trying to make a pro career. A tough position for him to be in, maybe he surprises Laval

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Let's look at #26 draftees from 10 years prior to Mesar:
2012 Brendan Gaunce, rotation/ backup center.
2013 Shea Theodore, good NHL dman
2014 Nikita Scherbak, playing 3rd tier Euro leagues now.
2015 Noah Juulsen, 7th dman in Canucks
2016 Tage Thompson, great player that didn't break into the NHL until D+6 season.
2017 Jake Oettinger, good NHL goalie for Stars
2018 Jacob Bernard-Docker, 3rd pair dman with the Sens
2019 Jakob Pelletier, still in rotation with the Flames
2020 Jake Neighbours, had a promising second season with the Blues
2021 Carson Cambros, had a quiet first season in the AHL

So out of these 10 players:
- one is now a star forward but was traded away from the team that drafted him after unassuming first handful of seasons
- one is a starting goalie, Dallas have hit the jackpot with this one
- 2 are mid tier NHL players
- 1 still in development
- 4 are NHL backups
- 1 is not good enough for the Slovak league

All in all Mesar fits into the mold above. Only three players did better than him in their D+2 seasons: Tage Thompson scoring 0.6 PPG in the AHL, Neighbors posting 1.5 PPG in WHL and Oettinger posting .926 SV% in college.

I'd say give him a stint at the AHL and see whether he can play with the big boys. The problem with him is that he's never going to be a 4th line type of player. He's either going to have to prove he's good enough for the middle six or he's going back to Europe. I wouldn't be that surprised if he did well in the AHL. He had already played 2 full seasons pro league back home and did great for a 17 year old. Maybe his slightly underwhelming performance in North America is due to adjusting to life abroad.

Using the 26th pick specifically over a tiny ten year sample is an absolutely terrible model as the sample size is miniscule and provides nothing of worth.

Also.....just because Montreal picked him 26th does not mean that most teams would have done so and this applies to all 26th picks in the ten year span.


A much better model would be to take picks 21-31 over a 15 year span and compare the results of these 165 players instead of the ten that you are using. Fixating on 26 specifically is just begging for anomaly driven results, especially in a tiny ten player sample.

 

[stenlis]

Using the 26th pick specifically over a tiny ten year sample is an absolutely terrible model as the sample size is miniscule and provides nothing of worth.

Also.....just because Montreal picked him 26th does not mean that most teams would have done so and this applies to all 26th picks in the ten year span.


A much better model would be to take picks 21-31 over a 15 year span and compare the results of these 165 players instead of the ten that you are using. Fixating on 26 specifically is just begging for anomaly driven results, especially in a tiny ten player sample.

Feel free to do a deeper analysis. However, it does not make sense to look at picks 21-31 as 21 through 25 were not on the table anymore when Habs picked Mesar. If you want to know how likely they were to pick somebody better, look at 26 through 36.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Feel free to do a deeper analysis. However, it does not make sense to look at picks 21-31 as 21 through 25 were not on the table anymore when Habs picked Mesar. If you want to know how likely they were to pick somebody better, look at 26 through 36.

My example makes perfect sense as they are typically similar prospects in this range and were only picked there because of a specific team's subjective choice. If you scrambled the leagues draft order repeatedly to represent every team in every draft slot, the picks between 21-31 would likely never be in the exact same order as the sample that you are using. Despite likely having at least half of the same players and sometimes nearly all of them. Marrying Mesar to the 26th pick for example is silly as many teams would have selected a different player there such as Kulich, Bystedt, Beck etc and perhaps if Montreal doesn't take Mesar he slips to the second round. A team could very well have taken Luneau late in the first instead of him going at 53. You are basing your model on a subjective decisions that represent 1/32 of possible outcomes dependent on which team makes that selection.

You are inferring that in every possible scenario with every team having a turn at making every pick that the previous 25 selections prior to Mesar would remain the same.....that is ludicrous. If Montreal was selecting 25th and they took Mesar you would be running the same model against completely different comparables which could very well give you entirely different projections for Mesar despite the fact that he has not changed.

To even suggest that it would be better to use the following 5 picks is also wrong for the reason that you are skewing the exercise towards a negative outcome as there is a linear correlation with pick order and success. It would only be slightly skewed in this instance but skewed nonetheless. You need the previous 5 picks as well to balance the data.

Sorry, I am not saying that you are liuducrous in any way just that this scenario is grossly flawed and perhaps you just didn't take the time to fully consider the flaws in your model.

I just cringe whenever I see this model brought up as it has absolutely no meaning but you will even see the talking heads on tv doing the same thing.

This is just feedback and don't let me discourage you from trying other models, you content is appreciated and I am sure that you will have better models in the future.

 

[Bobby Holik agent]

Him or Beck lead to d-man Trudeau goal in today exhibition
is there footage or resume?
I saw on X someone praising Mesar on the play and another one Beck LOL
Guess it was a team effort??

 

[stenlis]

My example makes perfect sense as they are typically similar prospects in this range and were only picked there because of a specific team's subjective choice. If you scrambled the leagues draft order repeatedly to represent every team in every draft slot, the picks between 21-31 would likely never be in the exact same order as the sample that you are using. Despite likely having at least half of the same players and sometimes nearly all of them. Marrying Mesar to the 26th pick for example is silly as many teams would have selected a different player there such as Kulich, Bystedt, Beck etc and perhaps if Montreal doesn't take Mesar he slips to the second round. A team could very well have taken Luneau late in the first instead of him going at 53. You are basing your model on a subjective decisions that represent 1/32 of possible outcomes dependent on which team makes that selection.

You are inferring that in every possible scenario with every team having a turn at making every pick that the previous 25 selections prior to Mesar would remain the same.....that is ludicrous. If Montreal was selecting 25th and they took Mesar you would be running the same model against completely different comparables which could very well give you entirely different projections for Mesar despite the fact that he has not changed.

To even suggest that it would be better to use the following 5 picks is also wrong for the reason that you are skewing the exercise towards a negative outcome as there is a linear correlation with pick order and success. It would only be slightly skewed in this instance but skewed nonetheless. You need the previous 5 picks as well to balance the data.

Sorry, I am not saying that you are liuducrous in any way just that this scenario is grossly flawed and perhaps you just didn't take the time to fully consider the flaws in your model.

I just cringe whenever I see this model brought up as it has absolutely no meaning but you will even see the talking heads on tv doing the same thing.

This is just feedback and don't let me discourage you from trying other models, you content is appreciated and I am sure that you will have better models in the future.

You could have already analyzed a bunch of players instead of writing this essay above. You didn't like my small sample? Do a larger one! Do it your way instead of complaining and "cringing"!

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

?
Few, if any, were calling any of those 3 a "bust" at the start of their respective D3 seasons... Go ahead and search it up.

That's were this post falls terribly flat. The negativity around Mesar from some posters is atypical even for Habs fans & this board. His actual play in D1 & D2, relative to his draft spot, gives no rational or precedent based reason for why some posters are crying and whining the way they are.

Your argument holds very little merit.

My point was, that REGARDLESS of Mesar, saying it's impossible for a late 1st to bust because nothing is expected of them anyway is silly.

None of what you wrote has anything to do with my post, I simply disagree with the logic.

You could have already analyzed a bunch of players instead of writing this essay above. You didn't like my small sample? Do a larger one! Do it your way instead of complaining and "cringing"!

You also called Shea Theodore a mid-tier NHL player in your analysis

 

[Miller Time]

My point was, that REGARDLESS of Mesar, saying it's impossible for a late 1st to bust because nothing is expected of them anyway is silly.

None of what you wrote has anything to do with my post, I simply disagree with the logic.

Why are you posting in the Mesar thread then?

Also, again regardless of Mesar, the idea that a guy who can't play in the NHL can still be considered a good pick because he fits team needs is ridiculous.

I just can't agree with any of those arguments.

Ridiculous is inferring that a player drafted in 2022 "can't play in the NHL" based on what they've done this far. That take is absent of anything resembling "logic"...

Or perhaps you simply aren't aware that only 2 players from that draft have played 82 or more NHL games...

Your entire premise is flawed, seemingly because of entirely unrealistic expectations.

Mesar may or may not develop into an NHL player, but regardless of him, the idea that a 2022 late first round pick is a bad pick because he isn't established in the NHL by the end of D2 season is ridiculous. Get it?

 

[stenlis]

You also called Shea Theodore a mid-tier NHL player in your analysis

He's a second pair dman who has missed big portions of the last couple of seasons due to health problems. I hope for the best for him but he wasn't ok in the last play offs.

 

[rve24]

I'm not thinking he makes ant impact with the big club after watching him in Kitchener ( I have Knights tickets and they play often ) Love to be wrong, just don't see it.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'm not thinking he makes ant impact with the big club after watching him in Kitchener ( I have Knights tickets and they play often ) Love to be wrong, just don't see it.

I mean the path for him to be a Montreal Canadiens is difficult regardless if he makes strides or not. We've added Laine and Newhook since we drafted Mesar. We drafted Demidov and Hage. We will likely be taking another high rated forward in the top 10 of this years draft. There's the development of Eriksson, Kapanen, and Roy.