Goalfield13
In Bilbo We Trust
- Aug 31, 2021
- 1,990
- 2,681
I disagree. If you’re talking about mid-late rounds sure, but the expectations/goals of drafting in the first round isn’t just to find guys who “make it” like it is in later rounds. In the first round, you’re looking for impact players at the very least.The majority of picks never make it. A guy picked in the 20’s who doesn’t make it isn’t a bust. Maybe a top 3 guy, but not that late.
True, but like I said, a lot of people could see this coming with Mesar; he’s a small soft perimeter winger with no elite attributes and a lack of plus speed. He also seems to lack IQ and compete. Thats just a bad pick. Most likely he was picked because he’s Slaf’s buddy, which is not a good look either.They are always gonna whiff on picks. They picked Slaf Beck Hutson Engstrom in the same draft.
Ok. But why do you consider Mesar a bust? Was he supposed to be that great? I recall a lot of posters not agreeing with the pick. Maybe the Habs just picked a guy who shouldn’t have gone where he did. That might make it a bad pick or a reach but it doesn’t mean he’s a bust. Anyway, I’ll admit it’s not looking great, but let’s see what a year in the ahl does first.I disagree. If you’re talking about mid-late rounds sure, but the expectations/goals of drafting in the first round isn’t just to find guys who “make it” like it is in later rounds. In the first round, you’re looking for impact players at the very least.
Go and look at the draft pages for the first round in years past (excluding recent drafts, obviously). There’s some variance of course, but most years, the overwhelming majority of players make the NHL in a significant capacity.
Random example: 2015. Only 4 players taken in the first round played less than 100 NHL games. Even in the second round that year, 17/30 players reached the 100 NHL games played mark.
I liked his second game and will refrain from commenting on any and all practice scrimmage footage.
This is probably the only pick made by Brobov/Lappointe I wasnt sure the moment they selected him. And crazy thing, on my mock I had Hutson intsead of Mesar. I can tell you I was shocked when we were able to get him further.I wouldn’t call him a bust if he doesn’t make it. Very few do. Even first rounders.
Andrighetto 2.0
could still develop in AHL like Plecky but I'm not getting hopes up at this pointProbably. We have 2 or 3 years of AHL development time to find out for sure.
What are you talking about? He couldn't be the playmaker he is if he didn't have hockey IQ.True, but like I said, a lot of people could see this coming with Mesar; he’s a small soft perimeter winger with no elite attributes and a lack of plus speed. He also seems to lack IQ and compete. Thats just a bad pick. Most likely he was picked because he’s Slaf’s buddy, which is not a good look either.
Also, let’s keep in mind that at this stage, only 1 of the 4 players you mentioned is an NHL player, but counting your chickens before they hatch is another thing Habs fans absolutely love to do. Although I’ll give you a bit of a pass for being excited about Hutson because he looks great and has since before the draft.
The goal for every round is to find impact players and not just guys depth guys who make it because acquiring depth players is both very easy and cheap so you don't need to draft them. Impact players (Really top-9 rather then top-6) is where you need the draft because those guys aren't easy to acquire and even when available are often expensive to acquire.I disagree. If you’re talking about mid-late rounds sure, but the expectations/goals of drafting in the first round isn’t just to find guys who “make it” like it is in later rounds. In the first round, you’re looking for impact players at the very least.
Go and look at the draft pages for the first round in years past (excluding recent drafts, obviously). There’s some variance of course, but most years, the overwhelming majority of players make the NHL in a significant capacity.
Random example: 2015. Only 4 players taken in the first round played less than 100 NHL games. Even in the second round that year, 17/30 players reached the 100 NHL games played mark.
Just because he puts up more goals than assists, doesn’t mean he’s a playmaker. At the junior level as an over-ager? Maybe, but still a stretch to call him that. He’s barely managing a point per game in the OHL, and again, he’s over age.What are you talking about? He couldn't be the playmaker he is if he didn't have hockey IQ.
Like I told the other poster, in general, most first rounders end up as NHL players at some point (200+ games played). Look through the old draft pages on db. Mesar was a first rounder. If he doesn’t become a full time NHLer at some point, he’s a bust. It’s that simple.The goal for every round is to find impact players and not just guys depth guys who make it because acquiring depth players is both very easy and cheap so you don't need to draft them. Impact players (Really top-9 rather then top-6) is where you need the draft because those guys aren't easy to acquire and even when available are often expensive to acquire.
But the reality is once you get out of the top-5 to top-10 your odds of getting one of those impact/top-9 guys greatly diminishes and just gets worse and worse. A late pick like Mesar is probably only a 20-30% of giving you a top-9 player depending on how you draw the line between those that make it and those that don't. I personally wouldn't put it at 100 NHL games.
True, but like I said, a lot of people could see this coming with Mesar; he’s a small soft perimeter winger with no elite attributes and a lack of plus speed. He also seems to lack IQ and compete. Thats just a bad pick. Most likely he was picked because he’s Slaf’s buddy, which is not a good look either.
Also, let’s keep in mind that at this stage, only 1 of the 4 players you mentioned is an NHL player, but counting your chickens before they hatch is another thing Habs fans absolutely love to do. Although I’ll give you a bit of a pass for being excited about Hutson because he looks great and has since before the draft.
I disagree. If you’re talking about mid-late rounds sure, but the expectations/goals of drafting in the first round isn’t just to find guys who “make it” like it is in later rounds. In the first round, you’re looking for impact players at the very least.
Go and look at the draft pages for the first round in years past (excluding recent drafts, obviously). There’s some variance of course, but most years, the overwhelming majority of players make the NHL in a significant capacity.
Random example: 2015. Only 4 players taken in the first round played less than 100 NHL games. Even in the second round that year, 17/30 players reached the 100 NHL games played mark.
Was this your feeling before Tony said it on his podcast or after?Andrighetto 2.0
Nope. He’s got an absolute muffin of a shot by NHL standards.He was picked in the range he was expected to go. He's played center. He's got above average hands, above average shot, elite playmaking and high end skating.
The tool package is exactly what everyone on this board has been begging to pick. High skilled player.
He has to find consistency, get to the middle of the ice more, and create space and time for his playmaking.
Some people no matter how skilled never find that consistency. It happens.
He was not a bad pick, he was a great gamble and he has plenty of time to figure out how to make it work. He's someone to set and forget.
We already have Suzuki Caufield Slafkovsky Dach Demidov Laine Hage and Roy. We aren't hurting for this guy to make it.
You can extend it to 200+ games and the point still stands.That means absolutely nothing. Lower first round picks that played over 100 games? Ryan Poehling, Noah Juulsen, Michael McCarron(f***s sakes Bergy, with Scherbak that's 4 in 5 years), Nathan Beaulieu, Jared Tinordi, Kyle Chipchura, all names we drafted that played 100+ games and topped at a level where you could get that player for league minimum on any July 1st(or close, why the hell are the flyers paying Poehling nearly 2m). There's no difference between them and a guy who couldn't even get 1 NHL game in my mind.
Yes most 1st round picks will end up with 200+ games played, but I'm not sure why you think that's a good threshold. Do you really think that Jacob De La Rose was a full time NHLer? He has 242 NHL games to his name, or how about Victor Mete and his 248 games or Andrighetto and his 216 games?Like I told the other poster, in general, most first rounders end up as NHL players at some point (200+ games played). Look through the old draft pages on db. Mesar was a first rounder. If he doesn’t become a full time NHLer at some point, he’s a bust. It’s that simple.
Mesar is a more complete player though.Andrighetto 2.0
Nope. He’s got an absolute muffin of a shot by NHL standards.
His playmaking is nowhere near elite, even by junior standards. If Mesar is an elite playmaker, what does that make someone like Jagger Firkus, who went a few picks later in the same draft? That guy is putting up 2.0 points per game in a tougher league scoring-wise.
His skating is just average.
Like I said, he has no high end attributes or skills at all. Contrast that with a guy like Hage, whose draft year numbers are vastly superior to Mesar’s D+1 and D+2 seasons. Those are the kind of players available in that range. Like I said before, Bystedt, Kulich, Lamoureux, Lambert, Howard, and Firkus were all on the board and went immediately after Mesar. All have surpassed him in development substantially.
I agree that it’s not the end of the world if he doesn’t make it, but there were plenty of guys just as, if not more skilled than Mesar, and none of them were small soft perimeter wingers with no elite skills.
It was just a dumb pick. Oh well.
You can extend it to 200+ games and the point still stands.
Mods, sticky this post please. The guy is 20, entering his first pro year... gee, how many people proved that they don't believe in development in this thread?Mesar's gonna be fine. He didn't have a bad game yesterday. He didn't stand out yesterday because the Habs have a balanced prospect pool.
Other than Hutson and Engstrom, no one really stood out yesterday. Yet the Habs played a good game.
Back to Mesar, he was using his speed a lot of times to get to the puck first. He would back check. He'd be making passes while in full stride.
He's become a lot of people's whipping boy because he didn't score 100 pts in junior. Yet he was just under a PPG his first year, was over a PPG his second year + playoffs. Was over a PPG player in both WJC. Had a point in 2 AHL games last year before being send back to Kitchener.
The guy's gonna be fine. He might need more time, but he'll be good.