Prospect Info: Filip Mesar

[Goalfield13]

Mesar and Kidney scream AHL/Europe to me. Decent guys to have in the A for now in case of injuries, but they haven't done much since being drafted, and the list of prospects ahead of them continues to grow.

 

[Garbageyuk]

The majority of picks never make it. A guy picked in the 20’s who doesn’t make it isn’t a bust. Maybe a top 3 guy, but not that late.

I disagree. If you’re talking about mid-late rounds sure, but the expectations/goals of drafting in the first round isn’t just to find guys who “make it” like it is in later rounds. In the first round, you’re looking for impact players at the very least.

Go and look at the draft pages for the first round in years past (excluding recent drafts, obviously). There’s some variance of course, but most years, the overwhelming majority of players make the NHL in a significant capacity.

Random example: 2015. Only 4 players taken in the first round played less than 100 NHL games. Even in the second round that year, 17/30 players reached the 100 NHL games played mark.

 

[Garbageyuk]

They are always gonna whiff on picks. They picked Slaf Beck Hutson Engstrom in the same draft.

True, but like I said, a lot of people could see this coming with Mesar; he’s a small soft perimeter winger with no elite attributes and a lack of plus speed. He also seems to lack IQ and compete. Thats just a bad pick. Most likely he was picked because he’s Slaf’s buddy, which is not a good look either.

Also, let’s keep in mind that at this stage, only 1 of the 4 players you mentioned is an NHL player, but counting your chickens before they hatch is another thing Habs fans absolutely love to do. Although I’ll give you a bit of a pass for being excited about Hutson because he looks great and has since before the draft.

 

[Bombshell11]

TAKE THIS HATERS!

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836797513405268265

 

[schwang26]

I disagree. If you’re talking about mid-late rounds sure, but the expectations/goals of drafting in the first round isn’t just to find guys who “make it” like it is in later rounds. In the first round, you’re looking for impact players at the very least.

Go and look at the draft pages for the first round in years past (excluding recent drafts, obviously). There’s some variance of course, but most years, the overwhelming majority of players make the NHL in a significant capacity.

Random example: 2015. Only 4 players taken in the first round played less than 100 NHL games. Even in the second round that year, 17/30 players reached the 100 NHL games played mark.

Ok. But why do you consider Mesar a bust? Was he supposed to be that great? I recall a lot of posters not agreeing with the pick. Maybe the Habs just picked a guy who shouldn’t have gone where he did. That might make it a bad pick or a reach but it doesn’t mean he’s a bust. Anyway, I’ll admit it’s not looking great, but let’s see what a year in the ahl does first.

 

[Rapala]

TAKE THIS HATERS!

https://x.com/i/web/status/1836797513405268265

I liked his second game and will refrain from commenting on any and all practice scrimmage footage.
The preseason games are where it counts and that goes for every kid we have.

 

[McGees]

Andrighetto 2.0

 

[Hins77]

I wouldn’t call him a bust if he doesn’t make it. Very few do. Even first rounders.

This is probably the only pick made by Brobov/Lappointe I wasnt sure the moment they selected him. And crazy thing, on my mock I had Hutson intsead of Mesar. I can tell you I was shocked when we were able to get him further.

 

[26Mats]

Andrighetto 2.0

Probably. We have 2 or 3 years of AHL development time to find out for sure.

 

[McGees]

Probably. We have 2 or 3 years of AHL development time to find out for sure.

could still develop in AHL like Plecky but I'm not getting hopes up at this point

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

True, but like I said, a lot of people could see this coming with Mesar; he’s a small soft perimeter winger with no elite attributes and a lack of plus speed. He also seems to lack IQ and compete. Thats just a bad pick. Most likely he was picked because he’s Slaf’s buddy, which is not a good look either.

Also, let’s keep in mind that at this stage, only 1 of the 4 players you mentioned is an NHL player, but counting your chickens before they hatch is another thing Habs fans absolutely love to do. Although I’ll give you a bit of a pass for being excited about Hutson because he looks great and has since before the draft.

What are you talking about? He couldn't be the playmaker he is if he didn't have hockey IQ.

 

[Sorinth]

I disagree. If you’re talking about mid-late rounds sure, but the expectations/goals of drafting in the first round isn’t just to find guys who “make it” like it is in later rounds. In the first round, you’re looking for impact players at the very least.

Go and look at the draft pages for the first round in years past (excluding recent drafts, obviously). There’s some variance of course, but most years, the overwhelming majority of players make the NHL in a significant capacity.

Random example: 2015. Only 4 players taken in the first round played less than 100 NHL games. Even in the second round that year, 17/30 players reached the 100 NHL games played mark.

The goal for every round is to find impact players and not just guys depth guys who make it because acquiring depth players is both very easy and cheap so you don't need to draft them. Impact players (Really top-9 rather then top-6) is where you need the draft because those guys aren't easy to acquire and even when available are often expensive to acquire.

But the reality is once you get out of the top-5 to top-10 your odds of getting one of those impact/top-9 guys greatly diminishes and just gets worse and worse. A late pick like Mesar is probably only a 20-30% of giving you a top-9 player depending on how you draw the line between those that make it and those that don't. I personally wouldn't put it at 100 NHL games.

 

[Garbageyuk]

What are you talking about? He couldn't be the playmaker he is if he didn't have hockey IQ.

Just because he puts up more goals than assists, doesn’t mean he’s a playmaker. At the junior level as an over-ager? Maybe, but still a stretch to call him that. He’s barely managing a point per game in the OHL, and again, he’s over age.

All we’ve heard so far about his lack of production (from a supposedly offensive forward, mind you), is “oh it’s his line mates; they have no chemistry” and “his line mates don’t keep up with him”. He’s even said it himself in interviews, which doesn’t look good on him either, tbh.

As the “playmaker”, isn’t he supposed to “make the plays”, and make his line mates better? That’s what good players do. He isn’t doing that. The reality is that it isn’t his line mates; he just doesn’t have the IQ he was purported to have.

And he stays on the perimeter instead of getting involved in the play and making things happen like he should. Perimeter players need to have a lethal shot and/or elite vision to be effective; he doesn’t have either.

I’ll be absolutely shocked if he ever makes the NHL full time after what we’ve seen so far.

 

[gifted88]

Mesar looks like a fantastic transition player with elite zone entry skill. That probably doesn't translate to a star player but it's useful and he could definitely end up as a good support player. To get there though he'll have to find another niche like a PK specialist. He doesn't look the part right now, but that's what development is all about right?

 

[Garbageyuk]

The goal for every round is to find impact players and not just guys depth guys who make it because acquiring depth players is both very easy and cheap so you don't need to draft them. Impact players (Really top-9 rather then top-6) is where you need the draft because those guys aren't easy to acquire and even when available are often expensive to acquire.

But the reality is once you get out of the top-5 to top-10 your odds of getting one of those impact/top-9 guys greatly diminishes and just gets worse and worse. A late pick like Mesar is probably only a 20-30% of giving you a top-9 player depending on how you draw the line between those that make it and those that don't. I personally wouldn't put it at 100 NHL games.

Like I told the other poster, in general, most first rounders end up as NHL players at some point (200+ games played). Look through the old draft pages on db. Mesar was a first rounder. If he doesn’t become a full time NHLer at some point, he’s a bust. It’s that simple.

 

[WeThreeKings]

True, but like I said, a lot of people could see this coming with Mesar; he’s a small soft perimeter winger with no elite attributes and a lack of plus speed. He also seems to lack IQ and compete. Thats just a bad pick. Most likely he was picked because he’s Slaf’s buddy, which is not a good look either.

Also, let’s keep in mind that at this stage, only 1 of the 4 players you mentioned is an NHL player, but counting your chickens before they hatch is another thing Habs fans absolutely love to do. Although I’ll give you a bit of a pass for being excited about Hutson because he looks great and has since before the draft.

He was picked in the range he was expected to go. He's played center. He's got above average hands, above average shot, elite playmaking and high end skating.

The tool package is exactly what everyone on this board has been begging to pick. High skilled player.

He has to find consistency, get to the middle of the ice more, and create space and time for his playmaking.

Some people no matter how skilled never find that consistency. It happens.

He was not a bad pick, he was a great gamble and he has plenty of time to figure out how to make it work. He's someone to set and forget.

We already have Suzuki Caufield Slafkovsky Dach Demidov Laine Hage and Roy. We aren't hurting for this guy to make it.

 

[Wateredgarden]

Mesar and Kidney are two guys with very interesting tools it's good to have guys like that who can just développe in the AHL. They have very low expectation on them. On the Timmins era players like that would have the destiny of the Habs on their shoulders.

 

[Rafafouille]

I disagree. If you’re talking about mid-late rounds sure, but the expectations/goals of drafting in the first round isn’t just to find guys who “make it” like it is in later rounds. In the first round, you’re looking for impact players at the very least.

Go and look at the draft pages for the first round in years past (excluding recent drafts, obviously). There’s some variance of course, but most years, the overwhelming majority of players make the NHL in a significant capacity.

Random example: 2015. Only 4 players taken in the first round played less than 100 NHL games. Even in the second round that year, 17/30 players reached the 100 NHL games played mark.

That means absolutely nothing. Lower first round picks that played over 100 games? Ryan Poehling, Noah Juulsen, Michael McCarron(f***s sakes Bergy, with Scherbak that's 4 in 5 years), Nathan Beaulieu, Jared Tinordi, Kyle Chipchura, all names we drafted that played 100+ games and topped at a level where you could get that player for league minimum on any July 1st(or close, why the hell are the flyers paying Poehling nearly 2m). There's no difference between them and a guy who couldn't even get 1 NHL game in my mind.

 

[Trembz]

Andrighetto 2.0

Was this your feeling before Tony said it on his podcast or after?

 

[Garbageyuk]

He was picked in the range he was expected to go. He's played center. He's got above average hands, above average shot, elite playmaking and high end skating.

The tool package is exactly what everyone on this board has been begging to pick. High skilled player.

He has to find consistency, get to the middle of the ice more, and create space and time for his playmaking.

Some people no matter how skilled never find that consistency. It happens.

He was not a bad pick, he was a great gamble and he has plenty of time to figure out how to make it work. He's someone to set and forget.

We already have Suzuki Caufield Slafkovsky Dach Demidov Laine Hage and Roy. We aren't hurting for this guy to make it.

Nope. He’s got an absolute muffin of a shot by NHL standards.

His playmaking is nowhere near elite, even by junior standards. If Mesar is an elite playmaker, what does that make someone like Jagger Firkus, who went a few picks later in the same draft? That guy is putting up 2.0 points per game in a tougher league scoring-wise.

His skating is just average.

Like I said, he has no high end attributes or skills at all. Contrast that with a guy like Hage, whose draft year numbers are vastly superior to Mesar’s D+1 and D+2 seasons. Those are the kind of players available in that range. Like I said before, Bystedt, Kulich, Lamoureux, Lambert, Howard, and Firkus were all on the board and went immediately after Mesar. All have surpassed him in development substantially.

I agree that it’s not the end of the world if he doesn’t make it, but there were plenty of guys just as, if not more skilled than Mesar, and none of them were small soft perimeter wingers with no elite skills.

It was just a dumb pick. Oh well.

That means absolutely nothing. Lower first round picks that played over 100 games? Ryan Poehling, Noah Juulsen, Michael McCarron(f***s sakes Bergy, with Scherbak that's 4 in 5 years), Nathan Beaulieu, Jared Tinordi, Kyle Chipchura, all names we drafted that played 100+ games and topped at a level where you could get that player for league minimum on any July 1st(or close, why the hell are the flyers paying Poehling nearly 2m). There's no difference between them and a guy who couldn't even get 1 NHL game in my mind.

You can extend it to 200+ games and the point still stands.

 

[Sorinth]

Like I told the other poster, in general, most first rounders end up as NHL players at some point (200+ games played). Look through the old draft pages on db. Mesar was a first rounder. If he doesn’t become a full time NHLer at some point, he’s a bust. It’s that simple.

Yes most 1st round picks will end up with 200+ games played, but I'm not sure why you think that's a good threshold. Do you really think that Jacob De La Rose was a full time NHLer? He has 242 NHL games to his name, or how about Victor Mete and his 248 games or Andrighetto and his 216 games?

If a player is a bust like McCarron was for us it hardly matters that he managed to hit the 200+ games played mark last year compared to Scherback being a bust and only having 37 NHL games. It's effectively the same thing for us in both cases even if one was a bigger bust then the other.

 

[LaP]

Andrighetto 2.0

Mesar is a more complete player though.

 

[Jaynki]

The argument that he was picked because he was Slaf teammate and friend in their minor career is laughable.

The elementary school refused to have my son in his class with one of his kindergarten friend.

Now a major league professional organisation would operate like that. Confirmation bias at its best. Maybe with a 5th rounder i would agree.

We probably whiffed the pick, at best his future with us is shallow, gotta get over it. Especially with how the draft unfolded for us after.

No need to grieve over a busting late 1st rounder. (Maybe when its for a decade long tho)

 

[Rafafouille]

Nope. He’s got an absolute muffin of a shot by NHL standards.

His playmaking is nowhere near elite, even by junior standards. If Mesar is an elite playmaker, what does that make someone like Jagger Firkus, who went a few picks later in the same draft? That guy is putting up 2.0 points per game in a tougher league scoring-wise.

His skating is just average.

Like I said, he has no high end attributes or skills at all. Contrast that with a guy like Hage, whose draft year numbers are vastly superior to Mesar’s D+1 and D+2 seasons. Those are the kind of players available in that range. Like I said before, Bystedt, Kulich, Lamoureux, Lambert, Howard, and Firkus were all on the board and went immediately after Mesar. All have surpassed him in development substantially.

I agree that it’s not the end of the world if he doesn’t make it, but there were plenty of guys just as, if not more skilled than Mesar, and none of them were small soft perimeter wingers with no elite skills.

It was just a dumb pick. Oh well.


You can extend it to 200+ games and the point still stands.

25-32 impact players(And I'm being generous with impact)

2010: Kuznetsov, Coyle, Nelson
2011: Danault, Rakell, Namestnikov
2012: Skjei, Pearson
2013: Theodore, Hartman
2014: Pastrnak, Kempe
2015: Roslovic, Beauvillier
2016: Thompson, Frederic
2017: Oettinger, Frost, Jokiharju, Tolvanen
2018: Sandin
2019+ too early

21 players worth mentioning with 5 studs out of 72 picks(29%). Hitting at the end of the first round is the exception, not what you should expect.

 

[Paddy17]

Mesar's gonna be fine. He didn't have a bad game yesterday. He didn't stand out yesterday because the Habs have a balanced prospect pool.

Other than Hutson and Engstrom, no one really stood out yesterday. Yet the Habs played a good game.

Back to Mesar, he was using his speed a lot of times to get to the puck first. He would back check. He'd be making passes while in full stride.

He's become a lot of people's whipping boy because he didn't score 100 pts in junior. Yet he was just under a PPG his first year, was over a PPG his second year + playoffs. Was over a PPG player in both WJC. Had a point in 2 AHL games last year before being send back to Kitchener.

The guy's gonna be fine. He might need more time, but he'll be good.

Mods, sticky this post please. The guy is 20, entering his first pro year... gee, how many people proved that they don't believe in development in this thread?