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Kings News: Fiala to for 2022 first-round pick and Brock Faber

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Rorschach said:
We got a PPG scorer in the beginning of his prime, at a position of great need, and signed to a below retail price including UFA years. For a low first and a decent prospect that wouldn’t sign here anyway…

Not to mention we have three young centers who need help badly…

And the part that actually amazes me is that Blake did this AFTER his extension was signed.
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FIALA.jpg


Beginning of his prime? Forwards peak at 25 on average. We're getting him at 26.

Also, he's only ever been a PPG scorer once. Probabilities are low that ever happens again.
 
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johnjm22 said:
FIALA.jpg


Beginning of his prime? Forwards peak at 25 on average. We're getting him at 26.

Also, he's only ever been a PPG scorer once. Probabilities are low that ever happens again.
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I would argue Fiala's scoring stat is not your "average" nhl forward. He's closer to elite than average. How many "average" nhl forwards have ever had a PPG season in their careers? Probably a lot less than "elite" forwards. And that Hawerchuk's study, which that plot draws from, probably included every NHL forward into the average. However, Brander's study also looked at just "elite" forwards and concluded:

Brander's study also looked at the NHL's elite players, which would include Oates.

Oates joined the NHL at age 23 and stayed for 19 seasons, playing for six teams. When he retired as a player, his assists total was the fifth highest in NHL history. A centre, his highest points per game seasons were when he was 28 and 30 years old. Oates played until he was 41.

Brander's study found that elite forwards are at their peak performance for scoring from age 27 to 29.

"Elite players improve faster initially, continue to improve for slightly longer and experience slower age-related decline," according to Brander. "They do not experience a major drop-off in performance until their late 30s."

Elite defencemen hit their scoring peak from 29 to 33.

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Even if Fiala is not elite, he's better than average, and we're probably getting him in his prime vs being over the hill.
 
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bouncesonly said:
I would argue Fiala's scoring stat is not your "average" nhl forward. He's closer to elite than average. How many "average" nhl forwards have ever had a PPG season in their careers? Probably a lot less than "elite" forwards. And that Hawerchuk's study, which that plot draws from, probably included every NHL forward into the average. However, Brander's study also looked at just "elite" forwards and concluded:



Even if Fiala is not elite, he's better than average, and we're probably getting him in his prime vs being over the hill.
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Well the stat is based on 5v5 scoring per 60min TOI. By that metric Fiala is pretty close to elite.

He was 9th in the NHL this past season in that stat. Over the last 3 seasons combined, he's 20th, with a 2.65 average. That puts him some pretty lofty company:

Stamkos 2.75
Draisaitl 2.71
Malkin 2.71
Pastrnak 2.70
Huberdeau 2.68
Fiala 2.65
M. Stone 2.63
Gaudreau 2.57
Barkov 2.45
Rantanen 2.40
P. Kane 2.39
Forsberg 2.38
Ovechkin 2.37

If only he was good on the PP. Then he'd probably be one of the top scoring wingers in the game.
 
Wild fan stopping by after the dust has settled to let you guys know you got a heck of a player in Fiala. I’m gonna miss watching him so much. He is absolutely electric when he is on. His first couple years in Minnesota he was asked to drag around aging vets and other boat anchors and he still produced points at a high rate. Outside of an Eric Staal who was near the end of his career, Fiala didn’t really have a chance to play with anyone highly skilled. Once Matt Boldy showed up he finally had a skilled linemate and they were fantastic together.

The one thing to consider though is that Kaprizov’s line always got the toughest matchups, which probably helped boost Fiala’s numbers a bit by lowering the level of defensive competition.

I would still feel pretty comfortable with the $7.9 million figure though. It isn’t a super great deal for the team or anything, but I’d be surprised if he underperformed by any great margin and i think it’s a fair number. He works really hard every shift, is a skilled skater who is very strong on his skates and rarely knocked off of pucks, can win board battles and quickly create separation, and has a laser of a shot. I’m bummed he is gone, but I’m happy for him. The Wild were never willing to give him a long term contract, and he said before this last season he had a fire in him to prove his worth. And boy did he ever. Happy he finally got his payday and wish him nothing but the best. He worked his butt off for the Wild and has shown great maturation as a player.
 
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bouncesonly said:
I would argue Fiala's scoring stat is not your "average" nhl forward. He's closer to elite than average. How many "average" nhl forwards have ever had a PPG season in their careers? Probably a lot less than "elite" forwards. And that Hawerchuk's study, which that plot draws from, probably included every NHL forward into the average. However, Brander's study also looked at just "elite" forwards and concluded:



Even if Fiala is not elite, he's better than average, and we're probably getting him in his prime vs being over the hill.
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Wild fan stopping by, appreciate this post very much for cool info! It mentioned continued development in the elite category there, Fiala has definitely continued to develop his game over the past few seasons. Believe me, he is still just entering his prime as an effective player.

If bored in the summer, here is a HF Boards link Kevin Fiala Reborn to a main board topic on him, spanning the last 3 seasons. Could be a good hype read, here is my April, 2022 post in regards to it for a snippet on his growth as a player:

"Guerin will likely take flak for the one year deal but at the time they said Fiala needed to show he had the all around game to be worthy, prior to this year he hadn’t shown enough consistency or defensive acumen to be a long term commitment. He has taken massive steps forward in both regards this year, probably motivated by those comments and contract action. He said himself that playing on the PK was really huge for developing and maintaining proper defensive positioning and reads, over the last half season that has paid huge dividends in his all around play. He won’t compete for Selkes but he is vastly improved and his D play is now leading to more offensive opportunities through turnovers and rushes.

That 1 year deal may cost MN the player but I think it helped him become a far superior hockey player than he was, and Fiala is better for it. He is worth more than we can reasonably pay him, it would take a sweet heart signing to keep him, or he will be worth a haul in a trade. The team acquiring him will be getting a very good hockey player, capable of bringing fans to their feet every game with his dazzling talents and ability to break a game open."

At the very least, he will add plenty of entertainment to your team, he makes some very dynamic plays and can absolutely dazzle on the ice. As fans, you are in for a very fun time watching him for the next while.
 
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cyclones22 said:
Is it completely outside of the realm of possibility that Fiala could go full Panarin and just blossom into a star level player? He just didn't put numbers last year, he looked great doing it. Fiala's shooting percentage wasn't an outlier either. Put Arty on the other wing to play the Boldy role = Profit.
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I actually think stylistically he’s a good fit for playing with Byfield. I’m not saying that’s where it starts but it may be the longer term end game for when QB is ready.
 
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Wild fan here with my 2 cents, you will love watching Kevin, he has improved so much over the years, every year has been more noticeable than the last. So sad to see him go, wish there would've been a way we could have kept him. One thing I noticed last year IMO he changed his game and a few times he skated and looked like Kaprizov 2.0, that was one of the reasons I hated seeing him go, I feel he was just starting to touch a new level of his game. Best of luck to Kevin in LA but not against us.
 
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All The Kings Men said:
Pete Weber watched him in Nashville, Michael Russo watched him in Minnesota so I talked to both of them.



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Nice work as always. I found the comments from Russo very interesting about how the MN coach had a chip on his shoulder against Fiala dating back to jrs. I think Fiala will shine here in LA with a good center and PP1 opportunity. Love the trade.

After this deal and watching them old clips of RB hipchecking fools through the boards my heart softened for Rob a little more. I probably wont boo him next time I see him lol. could be the wake and bake talking tho haha.
 
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Statto said:
I actually think stylistically he’s a good fit for playing with Byfield. I’m not saying that’s where it starts but it may be the longer term end game for when QB is ready.
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This is what I’m hoping will happen eventually. Can’t wait to see it in camp.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
Honestly Kopitar--and a lot of PP1, including Doughty--are stationary catching their breath on the PP instead of skating hard. It's one of the reasons it would be important to cut his minutes. All that lollygagging let to a lot of SHG against.
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Its def the emperor is buck naked w Kopi and DD on PP1. After watching what the Avs do with constant motion and deception, it should be a blueprint the Kings should strive for. The three players that have the quickness and deception are Arvidsson, Durzi and Kempe... Durzi is also great at getting shots through - something DD is not good at.
 
AbsentMojo said:
Its def the emperor is buck naked w Kopi and DD on PP1. After watching what the Avs do with constant motion and deception, it should be a blueprint the Kings should strive for. The three players that have the quickness and deception are Arvidsson, Durzi and Kempe... Durzi is also great at getting shots through - something DD is not good at.
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Durzi do not have quickness at all
 
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