OT: Failure of a team, Failure of a rebuild

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I really do believe two things.

1. We just got demoralized as a group too early and we should consider running more or less the same group back with tweaks rather than major pieces moving. We have talent.
2. The new ownership group has struck me as a bit over zealous with their appointments. Not a lot of experience for big decision making experiences but we truly have nothing to judge this group on. Single trade with a player who demanded a trade. Sure you could of been adamant and kept him worst case. But his family is there and they are a first place team. There’s nothing to judge. And I do hope they consider all factors and make the right moves here. Insulate and retain good value talent. There’s a reason someone wants norris. He’s a great supppementary and player on a 7m contract. In two years that’s a very manageable cap number for a shooter. We don’t have many shooters. Norris is lethal on the PP.

Only 5 PPG in 50 games this season….. but was not being played in his usual position during PP from years past.
16 in 21/22

 

[ottawagm]

Dylan Demelo RHD
Still only 30 years old
Led Winnipeg D in toi tonight with a goal and an assist.
View attachment 836748

How dare we trade away a UFA at the trade deadline. I question a lot of Dorion's moves, but getting a 3rd for a UFA isn't one of them.

 

[Icelevel]

How dare we trade away a UFA at the trade deadline. I question a lot of Dorion's moves, but getting a 3rd for a UFA isn't one of them.

He wanted to stay. He’s a top pairing RHD that fit in perfectly here.

 

[bicboi64]

How dare we trade away a UFA at the trade deadline. I question a lot of Dorion's moves, but getting a 3rd for a UFA isn't one of them.

Instead of extending DeMelo (even at a slight over payment of $3.5-4 million, assuming we couldn't extend him for what Winnipeg gave him at $3 million aav), Dorion went on to acquire Josh Brown, Gudbranson, & Hamonic. Since DeMelo was moved, we haven't had a good RD aside from Zub.

Keeping a top 4 RD who fit out rebuilds time frame was the worst decisions Dorion made for our D core.

 

[Loach]

How dare we trade away a UFA at the trade deadline. I question a lot of Dorion's moves, but getting a 3rd for a UFA isn't one of them.

This words are bad.

 

[Xspyrit]

Every time I see this thread, I read it as "rebuild was a massive Dorion", can't even unsee it.

How dare we trade away a UFA at the trade deadline. I question a lot of Dorion's moves, but getting a 3rd for a UFA isn't one of them.

Sorry but this is one of Dorion bad decisions. I know there's literally a SEA of them but it's one of them. Extending DeMelo was a no brainer, a 3.0 AAV for 4 years (IIRC) was not a big risk too. Matt Murray and Joonas Korpisalo contracts were big risks that as usual, blew up in our collective Sens fans faces.

Keep in mind that he had acquired Nikita Zaitsev 6 months earlier... that elite RHD

And no, Ceci was not a cap dump, he was a RFA and could have walked for nothing, but then later on he let Duclair walk for nothing lol. It's just incredible how bad Dorion was.

Instead of extending DeMelo (even at a slight over payment of $3.5-4 million, assuming we couldn't extend him for what Winnipeg gave him at $3 million aav), Dorion went on to acquire Josh Brown, Gudbranson, & Hamonic. Since DeMelo was moved, we haven't had a good RD aside from Zub.

I wonder how AWARE people are that other team's fans must be super GRATEFUL to Pierre Dorion... Think about Jets fans, Rangers fans, Wings fans, Avalanche fans, Vancouver fans, Sharks fans, etc etc etc

Dorion has literally been the guy in my avatar for them.

 

[Loach]

Every time I see this thread, I read it as "rebuild was a massive Dorion", can't even unsee it.



Sorry but this is one of Dorion bad decisions. I know there's literally a SEA of them but it's one of them. Extending DeMelo was a no brainer, a 3.0 AAV for 4 years (IIRC) was not a big risk too. Matt Murray and Joonas Korpisalo contracts were big risks that as usual, blew up in our collective Sens fans faces.

Demelo was in the cab right?

 

[Xspyrit]

Demelo was in the cab right?

Don't think so... and I dont remember but just googled it :

Matt Duchene, Chris Wideman, Thomas Chabot, Colin White, Chris Tierney, Dylan DeMelo and Alex Formenton were apparently the 7 players... I know Wideman and Duchene were very vocal but it doesn't mean the others were... maybe Dylan was just "there"

 

[Loach]

Don't think so... and I dont remember but just googled it :

Matt Duchene, Chris Wideman, Thomas Chabot, Colin White, Chris Tierney, Dylan DeMelo and Alex Formenton were apparently the 7 players... I know Wideman and Duchene were very vocal but it doesn't mean the others were... maybe Dylan was just "there"

They got brought into Dorion's office and yelled at too?

 

[Xspyrit]

They got brought into Dorion's office and yelled at too?

No idea... not the type of things I follow very closely, I'm more focused on what happens on the ice.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Is the rebuild a failure? I thought the main problem and only big issue is the goaltending. It seems that many/most think this team and its players are very good and its the goaltending that’s holding them back.

 

[Loach]

No idea... not the type of things I follow very closely, I'm more focused on what happens on the ice.

I think it was in an interview with Wideman. Demelo played with Boro after that I think too.

 

[UglyPuckling]

So what is success? That's a hard concept to define. It's a 32 team league. It's rather difficult to consistently make the playoffs when half do and half don't. And there are generational players that tend to stick with the teams that drafted them so when you're out of favour, you need to be both out of favour and get lucky with the lottery.

Look at McDavid and Matthews. 17 seasons between them. 14 playoff appearances. That's s a lot better than 50% and it's not random. Did that track record happen because of successful rebuilds or because or lottery luck?

Someone the other day posted a list of cup winners going back 15 years. Every one of those teams had at least one first ballot hall of famer and at least two hall of Famers. Players like that aren't "developed" they are won in lotteries. And in the case of a guy like Kopitar, it's actually kinda random. Passing on him hurt, but probably every team other than Pittsburgh would take the do over up to Kopitar's slot.

Boston might be the most successful franchise of all. It's certainly very well run. But their two best players, and they're recently retired best player, all kinda came out of nowhere. 25th OA and a couple of 2nd rounders. You're not supposed to get hall of Famers in those draft slots

I guess my point is in a 32 team league, where half make the playoffs and the 32 team locations are not equally desirable places of employment, consistently being in the top half might not be achievable

Yes, its a good question. I think you have to be able to consistently get into the playoffs and win multiple playoff rounds at times once your in to be considered good.

Obviously, others aim lower and just want to make the playoffs.

 

[Xspyrit]

Yes, its a good question. I think you have to be able to consistently get into the playoffs and win multiple playoff rounds at times once your in to be considered good.

Obviously, others aim lower and just want to make the playoffs.

Success is not black or white, there is different scales of success

Didn't follow the conversation but this is very basic stuff.

I think the first goal for a NHL team is to be competitive all season and fight for the playoffs until the end. Then start making the playoffs and go from there, win rounds, etc.

Considering the context of our rebuild, our goal should have been to be competitive in 2020-21 and 2021-22 and then start making the playoffs (even if losing in round 1) in 2022-23. The fact that we're not even competitive all season by 2023-24 is an aberration and the proof that the rebuild was a massive Dorion.

This rebuild can be saved but it will take flawless GMing.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Success is not black or white, there is different scales of success

Didn't follow the conversation but this is very basic stuff.

I think the first goal for a NHL team is to be competitive all season and fight for the playoffs until the end. Then start making the playoffs and go from there, win rounds, etc.

Considering the context of our rebuild, our goal should have been to be competitive in 2020-21 and 2021-22 and then start making the playoffs (even if losing in round 1) in 2022-23. The fact that we're not even competitive all season by 2023-24 is an aberration and the proof that the rebuild was a massive Dorion.

This rebuild can be saved but it will take flawless GMing.

Well, sure things should improve over time, but there’s very definitive and clear metrics for measuring success. The NHL has been using points to rank team in the standings as that metric.

 

[jbeck5]

Is the rebuild a failure? I thought the main problem and only big issue is the goaltending. It seems that many/most think this team and its players are very good and its the goaltending that’s holding them back.

Biggest problem? Yes.

But there's a lot of issues.

I've seen great teams put up very successful seasons with below average goaltending.

League worst goaltending? No...which is why this is the biggest problem for sure.

But I would throw in:

Lacking a top 2 pair RD
Lacking physical mobile D.
Lacking 2 way forwards.
Lacking physical forwards.
Lacking depth on forwards.

1) I would try to get rid of one goalie(as getting rid of both might be a challenge)
2) Bring in an average goalie.
3) try to get rid of brannstrom and hamonic
4) bring in 2 physical RD. One who can play top 2 pair with Zub, and one for the third pair. Leave jbd as 7th or get rid of him too. Kleven first man up.
5) get rid of kubalik, Kelly, kastelic, MacEwen, Chartier, etc.
6) bring in 2-3 solid 2 way physical vets and mix them with Greig, Joseph, Ostapchuk, Norris, etc.

long story short, we need to change a lot more than the goaltending

I'm looking at a roster like this:

Tkachuk-stutzle-giroux
Greig-pinto-batherson
Joseph-norris-UFA
Ostapchuk-UFA-UFA

And make those UFAs good players so that the bottom 6 is interchangeable, and we can roll 4 lines, and Ostapchuk isn't playing with scrubs.

Sanderson-UFA
Chabot-Zub
Chychrun -UFA

UFA
Korpisalo/forsberg

Obviously these holes could be filled via trade, but a trade may also open up another hole.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Biggest problem? Yes.

But there's a lot of issues.

I've seen great teams put up very successful seasons with below average goaltending.

League worst goaltending? No...which is why this is the biggest problem for sure.

But I would throw in:

Lacking a top 2 pair RD
Lacking physical mobile D.
Lacking 2 way forwards.
Lacking physical forwards.
Lacking depth on forwards.

1) I would try to get rid of one goalie(as getting rid of both might be a challenge)
2) Bring in an average goalie.
3) try to get rid of brannstrom and hamonic
4) bring in 2 physical RD. One who can play top 2 pair with Zub, and one for the third pair. Leave jbd as 7th or get rid of him too. Kleven first man up.
5) get rid of kubalik, Kelly, kastelic, MacEwen, Chartier, etc.
6) bring in 2-3 solid 2 way physical vets and mix them with Greig, Joseph, Ostapchuk, Norris, etc.

long story short, we need to change a lot more than the goaltending

I'm looking at a roster like this:

Tkachuk-stutzle-giroux
Greig-pinto-batherson
Joseph-norris-UFA
Ostapchuk-UFA-UFA

And make those UFAs good players so that the bottom 6 is interchangeable, and we can roll 4 lines, and Ostapchuk isn't playing with scrubs.

Sanderson-UFA
Chabot-Zub
Chychrun -UFA

UFA
Korpisalo/forsberg

Obviously these holes could be filled via trade, but a trade may also open up another hole.

If the team needs to add 6 UFAs, I’d think that suggests that the team isn’t very good and needs a lot of work.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I'm not ready to proclaim the rebuild is a failure until I see how the team does next year under a real head coach (no offense to Jacques but he's a caretaker) with hopefully a new goalie manning the net who can keep a save percentage above .900.

But it's sad when you realize how much youth/futures was given up in recent years to try to rush the team to the playoffs, and all for nothing.

2022 1st (7th OVR), 2023 1st (12th OVR), 2022 2nd (39th OVR), 2024 2nd and a 2026 2nd all traded away in the last couple years for ADB and Chychrun.

We got a late 1st back for ADB and Chychrun may be able to return something similar this off-season, but we also lost a future 1st because of the Dadonov fiasco. Not to mention losing a talented young forward in Formenton for off-ice reasons.

So much of our future pissed away in recent years. We're at risk of eventually stagnating by not having enough young assets to push our team over the top when it comes to affording new acquisitions, whether in the off-season or as rentals at the deadline.

 

[jbeck5]

If the team needs to add 6 UFAs, I’d think that suggests that the team isn’t very good and needs a lot of work.

I agree. They probably won't make that many moves though lol

They'll take their time with some of the guys I mentioned before moving on from them Is my guess.

I also have no idea who's available or who would even come here.

Maybe they fill a couple and have to resort to bringing back guys like kastelic or Chartier or Kelly, etc.

But I feel like when we were at our best, guys like that weren't making our team.

This was the depth when we were good:
2004 for example(all forwards that played a game for Ottawa)
1) Hossa
2) Alfredsson
3) Havlat
4) Bonk
5) Spezza
6) Bondra
7) Smolinski
8) Fisher
9) Schaefer
10) White
11) Neil
12) Vermette
13) Varada
14) Van Allen
15) Ray
16) Langfeld
17) Schastlivy
18) Hull
19) Kelly
20) Hamel
21) Laich
22) Player

Am I wrong to think that those guys on our 4th line would be more in the 15-20 range on our forward depth in 2004? I feel I can safely say the top 14 from 04 are noticeably better players than our 4th line most of this year. So I would just move on from them entirely. Bring in a whole better 4th line.

We need a lot more 4th and "5th" line depth if we're going to succeed through a full season. Injuries happen.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I agree. They probably won't make that many moves though lol

They'll take their time with some of the guys I mentioned before moving on from them Is my guess.

OK, those seem like reasonable thoughts.

The Karlsson trade was Sept. 2018, so its quite some time since the rebuild began.

It just seems like the lion’s share of attention and ire is on goaltending and there's fewer concerns or mention of the other issues or improvements.

 

[ottawagm]

Instead of extending DeMelo (even at a slight over payment of $3.5-4 million, assuming we couldn't extend him for what Winnipeg gave him at $3 million aav), Dorion went on to acquire Josh Brown, Gudbranson, & Hamonic. Since DeMelo was moved, we haven't had a good RD aside from Zub.

Keeping a top 4 RD who fit out rebuilds time frame was the worst decisions Dorion made for our D core.

Then he should have signed him in the summer. I would still have traded him at the deadline.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

The fact that our drafting has been questionable in a lot of places needs to be mentioned. Even without the blatantly bad Boucher pick:

Thomson in round 1, JBD in round 1, and Jarventie over Peterka, Benjamin Roger in round 2 when he was ranked in like the 6th round by most scouts.

Yeah yeah "not every pick works out", but it doesn't help when you're always taking guys 20 spots above the draft consensus.

 

[PlayOn]

The fact that our drafting has been questionable in a lot of places needs to be mentioned. Even without the blatantly bad Boucher pick:

Thomson in round 1, JBD in round 1, and Jarventie over Peterka, Benjamin Roger in round 2 when he was ranked in like the 6th round by most scouts.

Yeah yeah "not every pick works out", but it doesn't help when you're always taking guys 20 spots above the draft consensus.

Is there really a player that went after Thomson in 2019 in the first round that moves any sort of needle for us? There weren’t a ton of options. I don’t think a serviceable NHL dman is necessarily a bad pick either for JBD.

You could do this with every team in the league. Outside of 2021 Ottawa’s drafting is the least of our issues.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Is there really a player that went after Thomson in 2019 in the first round that moves any sort of needle for us? There weren’t a ton of options. I don’t think a serviceable NHL dman is necessarily a bad pick either for JBD.

You could do this with every team in the league. Outside of 2021 Ottawa’s drafting is the least of our issues.

Tomasino and McMichael have both been useful middle six guys(with the latter having a decent chance of becoming a top 6 player), if you wanna look at the early 2nd round, both Brink and Kaliyev would have been better choices too.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

If the team needs to add 6 UFAs, I’d think that suggests that the team isn’t very good and needs a lot of work.

I think the team not being very good and needing a lot of work is common knowledge at this point?