OT: Failure of a team, Failure of a rebuild

[CDN24]

I don't know if the rebuild went that bad - as in the part where you trade players, acquire picks and prospects, and draft. There was a decent base of players and there was more than enough young talent to build around. Drafted players generally turned out very well.

Where the rebuild failed is when Dorion was given the reigns to actually acquire players and add salary, when the rebuild was branded "completed". When Dorion started trading prime assets for Debrincat/Chychrun, and given the green light to sign UFAs is exactly where the problems started happening. Imagine this team without having traded for Chychrun/Debrincat and without Korpisalo. They would have a good prospect pool, assets, and money.

Obviously some bad luck along the way that didn't help like Pinto suspension, Norris shoulder made of nutty putty and Formenton being an idiot but I truly believe that the future of this team fell down the drain when Dorion tried to make this team better with extremely bad decisions.

I don't see this team being successful the way it's constructed and I don't see how Staois could make it successful with what he has in his hands right now. I wouldn't be opposed to trading anyone other than Sanderson, Greig and Pinto and trying to get the most assets possible. This team is going nowhere in the next 2-3 years anyways and there's no way Tkachuk is staying past this contract.

The trading was brutal especially the recent trades to add established players. He essentially made the same mistake 3 times repeating the Matt Duchene 2 more times.

Acquires Matt Duchene who is 1.5 years away from Free agency (ultimately costs a a 4th OA, a 3rd rd pick and Turris. Duchene is shipped out before Colorado even uses those picks.

Acquires Debrincat who has 1 yr left on his contract (1 RFA year left with massive QO that can take him to UFA for a 7OA pick plus a 2nd and a 2024 3rd. Again Debincat is moved out before Hawks use the last pick.

Acquires Chychrun who has a bit over 2 years left on his contract for the 12 OA pick and 2 seconds. Only thing that remains to be seen is if Sens move him out before Arizona can use those last 2 picks.

Same mistake 3 times. Also for a team rebuilding he didn't really acquire that many picks like the traditional rebuilds go. If we assume the rebuild started in 2018-2019 with the trade out of Karlsson and then matt Duchense. The Sens drafted

2019 - 6 picks, 2020 10 picks, 2021 6 picks, 2022 9 picks, 2023 5 picks, Over the next 3 years they have 21 picks (2 came from Tarasenko dump so lets exclude) During Dorion's rebuild that is 55 picks used in 5 drafts or available in next 3 drafts. In 8 drafts the std number of picks is 56.

It may be the only rebuild in history where the team did not acquire net picks. In that period he sold Karllson, Duchene, Dzingel, Stone, Ceci, Demelo, and Pageau and somehow ended up with less picks that the std 7 a year.

 

[inthewings]

The trading was brutal especially the recent trades to add established players. He essentially made the same mistake 3 times repeating the Matt Duchene 2 more times.

Acquires Matt Duchene who is 1.5 years away from Free agency (ultimately costs a a 4th OA, a 3rd rd pick and Turris. Duchene is shipped out before Colorado even uses those picks.

Acquires Debrincat who has 1 yr left on his contract (1 RFA year left with massive QO that can take him to UFA for a 7OA pick plus a 2nd and a 2024 3rd. Again Debincat is moved out before Hawks use the last pick.

Acquires Chychrun who has a bit over 2 years left on his contract for the 12 OA pick and 2 seconds. Only thing that remains to be seen is if Sens move him out before Arizona can use those last 2 picks.

Same mistake 3 times. Also for a team rebuilding he didn't really acquire that many picks like the traditional rebuilds go. If we assume the rebuild started in 2018-2019 with the trade out of Karlsson and then matt Duchense. The Sens drafted

2019 - 6 picks, 2020 10 picks, 2021 6 picks, 2022 9 picks, 2023 5 picks, Over the next 3 years they have 21 picks (2 came from Tarasenko dump so lets exclude) During Dorion's rebuild that is 55 picks used in 5 drafts or available in next 3 drafts. In 8 drafts the std number of picks is 56.

It may be the only rebuild in history where the team did not acquire net picks. In that period he sold Karllson, Duchene, Dzingel, Stone, Ceci, Demelo, and Pageau and somehow ended up with less picks that the std 7 a year.

It really was one of the all-time bad GM performances. Pierre Dorion is going to be remembered as one of the worst GMs in NHL history, and easily the worst in franchise history.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

A few coaching observations...
1. Love Jacques but a new tough structured discipline coach is required next season so they are on the right foot from day one of training camp.
2. No new coach isn't going to want to be subject to an advisor, so Jacques will indeed be gone after the new coach is selected.
3. Perhaps it is just be his subdued quiet nature, but I don't think Daniel Alfredsson looks particularly happy or enthralled behind the bench.
4. To be successful any new coach is going to want to be able to select his own crew.

There were a couple of “tough structured disciplined” coaching candidates available when DJS was shown the door…..Roy and Berube.

Roy was hired by the Islanders, and now today they’re sitting in a Wildcard playoff spot.

Our Rookie GM decides, back in December, to write off the season, and moved J Martin into the interim NOT returning next season coaching position…. Not heard of an interim coach not being considered for the head coaching position if his work warranted it ??


His record, after 36 games, as the Interim NOT returning next season coach, has (so far) resulted in a .444 pts% record, and currently riding a 7 game losing streak……


Will anything J Martin has done, teaching or otherwise carry over to the next Head coach? Who knows…. and who is to say if our rookie GM had brought in one of Roy or Berube things would have been better? Well we will never know, but perhaps how the Islanders do for the rest of the season might give us an indication…… the Islanders players knew from day one, the Roy was there until he was fired, he was not a substitute teacher like J Martin is, I would suggest the Islanders got down to business knowing who was in charge….while in Ottawa, the players know J Martin was only there until the end of the season… two teams, two different desicions…. The results are speaking for themselves….

And next training camp it’s back to square one…… when we could have square one back on December 19th, and been so much more ahead of the
Curve come training camp.

 

[jbeck5]

With trading the 7th pick for debrincat, a 12th for chychrun, using a 10th on Tyler Boucher, and the forfeited upcoming first from the dadanov fiasco, do we actually have the proper organizational value/depth to build a winner right now?

Should we maybe be selling off assets and recovering and gathering some value?

We can make some trades and shuffle things around, but do we have enough capital to actually win a Stanley Cup in the next 5-6 years?

If not, what's the point of trying to build a team that can squeek into the playoffs.

We should be looking to build an actual top 5 team that has a decent chance at the cup for a few years.

 

[Alex1234]

With trading the 7th pick for debrincat, a 12th for chychrun, using a 10th on Tyler Boucher, and the forfeited upcoming first from the dadanov fiasco, do we actually have the proper organizational value/depth to build a winner right now?

Should we maybe be selling off assets and recovering and gathering some value?

We can make some trades and shuffle things around, but do we have enough capital to actually win a Stanley Cup in the next 5-6 years?

If not, what's the point of trying to build a team that can squeek into the playoffs.

We should be looking to build an actual top 5 team that has a decent chance at the cup for a few years.

Exactly
And Giroux and Joseph will have to be replaced soon too
By who?
UFAs who don't want to play here? lol

 

[PlayOn]

With trading the 7th pick for debrincat, a 12th for chychrun, using a 10th on Tyler Boucher, and the forfeited upcoming first from the dadanov fiasco, do we actually have the proper organizational value/depth to build a winner right now?

Should we maybe be selling off assets and recovering and gathering some value?

We can make some trades and shuffle things around, but do we have enough capital to actually win a Stanley Cup in the next 5-6 years?

If not, what's the point of trying to build a team that can squeek into the playoffs.

We should be looking to build an actual top 5 team that has a decent chance at the cup for a few years.

5-6 years is a long time. We traded draft capital for DeBrincat and Chychrun but we also don’t necessarily have zero to show for it.

BOS 1st could be traded to get you a goalie, just as an example. We could also draft a useful player with it. Chychrun is probably gonna get you a player or at least a couple of picks to work with.

It’s not a case where we gave things up and then the players walked for nothing. Sure, our returns will be/are less than what we gave up, but if used wisely, it’s still capital to help you improve. Staios just has no real room for mistakes.

This team will need an injection of youth in 3-4 years but they have time to get the pipeline going. Until then the team needs vets anyway so you can get some stop gaps and work on the pipeline in the meantime.

 

[jbeck5]

5-6 years is a long time. We traded draft capital for DeBrincat and Chychrun but we also don’t necessarily have zero to show for it.

BOS 1st could be traded to get you a goalie, just as an example. We could also draft a useful player with it. Chychrun is probably gonna get you a player or at least a couple of picks to work with.

It’s not a case where we gave things up and then the players walked for nothing. Sure, our returns will be/are less than what we gave up, but if used wisely, it’s still capital to help you improve. Staios just has no real room for mistakes.

This team will need an injection of youth in 3-4 years but they have time to get the pipeline going. Until then the team needs vets anyway so you can get some stop gaps and work on the pipeline in the meantime.

We're at a disadvantage because we're second last in the conference with nothing coming through the pipes of any significance.

I really don't want to spend the next 2-3 years building a team that might finish 6th in the east and then fizzle out and max out at that.

If we're building something, we should build it properly.

Do we have the pieces to build a core that can get home ice multiple years in a row or are we building a team that hopes to make the playoffs and then anything can happen.

Basically, are we aiming to be closer to a 2000-2007 sens team, or a 2008-2015 sens team?

If it's the latter, why bother?

With all the potential depth we pissed away, I don't know if we can even compete with the 2000-2007 teams (a team I might add that DID NOT win the cup)


Where are we going to get all this cheap talent on the bottom of our roster if our prospect pool is garbage...and while we spend 3-4 years building our prospect pool, guys like Chabot and batherson and Tkachuk and zub will be on the downswing, let alone guys like Giroux.

 

[Relapsing]

Roy was hired by the Islanders, and now today they’re sitting in a Wildcard playoff spot.

OK, time to put my debunking hat on again.

I only do this with you because I like stats, and I'm a firm believer that using stats truthfully can lead to meaningful insights. Similarly, the misuse of stats bugs the absolute living shit out of me. And also because you make it so easy with your outlandish claims.

Here we go!

So, Roy was hired after the NYI lost game 45 in OT to Chicago. They had just lost 4 in a row, and 6 of the last 7.

At this time, they were sitting at 49 pts in 45 games, or a P% 0.544. They were sitting 6th in the Metro, but only 2 points behind Detroit for the second wild card spot.

As of today, right now, they are sitting at 70 pts in 62 games, or a P% of 0.563. They are currently sitting at 4th in the Metro. They are tied in points with Detroit for the second wild card spot but lose the tie breaker.

Just to be clear: The hiring of Roy has resulted in a P% increase of only 0.019, and the Islanders are tied in points with Detroit (who is on a 5 game losing streak), but still lose the tie-breaker for WC2.

Did he ever move the needle for the Islanders season! A whole 0.019 P% increase and 2 spots in their Division. That would have (checks notes)... not at all changed our season.

 

[CDN24]

With trading the 7th pick for debrincat, a 12th for chychrun, using a 10th on Tyler Boucher, and the forfeited upcoming first from the dadanov fiasco, do we actually have the proper organizational value/depth to build a winner right now?

Should we maybe be selling off assets and recovering and gathering some value?

We can make some trades and shuffle things around, but do we have enough capital to actually win a Stanley Cup in the next 5-6 years?

If not, what's the point of trying to build a team that can squeek into the playoffs.

We should be looking to build an actual top 5 team that has a decent chance at the cup for a few years.

There is no easy answer, if I am Andlauer and I spent nearly a $B on this thing I want to do it right but Dorion did not make that exactly easy. The pipeline should have 2 real nice pieces from that 7th in 2022 and 12th last year, instead I have Boston's 2024 pick that is 2 years further removed from being ready than that 2022 pick and likely 20 draft slots later.

I think I bite the bullet for a couple of years- no quick fixes by trading picks unless its for recently drafted high end guys with more than a year or 2 of cost control (think Kirby Dach trade). I have to trade a D-man (Chabot or Chychrun) - probably Chychrun as he has more value. I will do whatever I can to facilitate a better return - let him negotiate an extention retain on next years salary. After Hanifin signs somewhere as a UFA their will be someone who missed out on him willing to pay big for Chychrun if he will extend with them.

Then I have a long conversation with Claude Giroux. I need him to waive the NMC so I can get a real return for him (not a Tarasenko return) again willing to retain dollars to make it happen. I have all 3 retention slots for next year.

If I am Sens mgmt I have conceded that I probably do not make the playoffs next year

 

[CDN24]

OK, time to put my debunking hat on again.

I only do this with you because I like stats, and I'm a firm believer that using stats truthfully can lead to meaningful insights. Similarly, the misuse of stats bugs the absolute living shit out of me. And also because you make it so easy with your outlandish claims.

Here we go!

So, Roy was hired after the NYI lost game 45 in OT to Chicago. They had just lost 4 in a row, and 6 of the last 7.

At this time, they were sitting at 49 pts in 45 games, or a P% 0.544. They were sitting 6th in the Metro, but only 2 points behind Detroit for the second wild card spot.

As of today, right now, they are sitting at 70 pts in 62 games, or a P% of 0.563. They are currently sitting at 4th in the Metro. They are tied in points with Detroit for the second wild card spot but lose the tie breaker.

Just to be clear: The hiring of Roy has resulted in a P% increase of only 0.019, and the Islanders are tied in points with Detroit (who is on a 5 game losing streak), but still lose the tie-breaker for WC2.

Did he ever move the needle for the Islanders season! A whole 0.019 P% increase and 2 spots in their Division. That would have (checks notes)... not at all changed our season.

Not really fair to include the 1st 45 games in your point % under Roy. That would almost be a misuse of stats. In the 17 games under Roy they have 21 pts a points percentage of .617647 or a full season pace of 101 pts vs 89 pre Roy.

If we calculated your way of grouping the pre and post Roy games together, they could have won all 17 games for 34 pts and you would be comparing 66.9% (83 pts in 62 games) to 54.4%

 

[Relapsing]

Not really fair to include the 1st 45 games in your point % under Roy. That would almost be a misuse of stats. In the 17 games under Roy they have 21 pts a points percentage of .617647 or a full season pace of 101 pts vs 89 pre Roy.

If we calculated your way of grouping the pre and post Roy games together, they could have won all 17 games for 34 pts and you would be comparing 66.9% (83 pts in 62 games) to 54.4%

If the point was that Roy has improved the Isles prospects this season, then it's entirely fair to look at their pre-change pts% and their current pts%. I prefer this vs taking a sub 1/4 season sample size and extrapolating it to a half season and assuming it would result in a 1:1 change.

Really, the main takeaway here is that Roy has not meaningfully changed the fortunes of the Islanders, and also the statement that they are currently in a wild card spot is a bold faced lie.

 

[Tuna99]

There were a couple of “tough structured disciplined” coaching candidates available when DJS was shown the door…..Roy and Berube.

Roy was hired by the Islanders, and now today they’re sitting in a Wildcard playoff spot.

Our Rookie GM decides, back in December, to write off the season, and moved J Martin into the interim NOT returning next season coaching position…. Not heard of an interim coach not being considered for the head coaching position if his work warranted it ??


His record, after 36 games, as the Interim NOT returning next season coach, has (so far) resulted in a .444 pts% record, and currently riding a 7 game losing streak……


Will anything J Martin has done, teaching or otherwise carry over to the next Head coach? Who knows…. and who is to say if our rookie GM had brought in one of Roy or Berube things would have been better? Well we will never know, but perhaps how the Islanders do for the rest of the season might give us an indication…… the Islanders players knew from day one, the Roy was there until he was fired, he was not a substitute teacher like J Martin is, I would suggest the Islanders got down to business knowing who was in charge….while in Ottawa, the players know J Martin was only there until the end of the season… two teams, two different desicions…. The results are speaking for themselves….

And next training camp it’s back to square one…… when we could have square one back on December 19th, and been so much more ahead of the
Curve come training camp.

FYI NYI is not in a wildcard spot

 

[CDN24]

If the point was that Roy has improved the Isles prospects this season, then it's entirely fair to look at their pre-change pts% and their current pts%. I prefer this vs taking a sub 1/4 season sample size and extrapolating it to a half season and assuming it would result in a 1:1 change.

Really, the main takeaway here is that Roy has not meaningfully changed the fortunes of the Islanders, and also the statement that they are currently in a wild card spot is a bold faced lie.

If you are trying to isolate the Roy effect the only fair way to look at is with Roy vs without Roy. I agree the sample size of 17 games is too small to draw a meaningful conclusion but grouping his 17 games with the other 45 as "his sample" is worse. Roy could only affect those 17 games - he could do nothing to change the result of the 1st 17.

You say "the misuse of stats bugs the absolute living shit out of me" In my opinion including the games he was not there in evaluating Roy meets the misuse of stats test.

 

[jbeck5]

There is no easy answer, if I am Andlauer and I spent nearly a $B on this thing I want to do it right but Dorion did not make that exactly easy. The pipeline should have 2 real nice pieces from that 7th in 2022 and 12th last year, instead I have Boston's 2024 pick that is 2 years further removed from being ready than that 2022 pick and likely 20 draft slots later.

I think I bite the bullet for a couple of years- no quick fixes by trading picks unless its for recently drafted high end guys with more than a year or 2 of cost control (think Kirby Dach trade). I have to trade a D-man (Chabot or Chychrun) - probably Chychrun as he has more value. I will do whatever I can to facilitate a better return - let him negotiate an extention retain on next years salary. After Hanifin signs somewhere as a UFA their will be someone who missed out on him willing to pay big for Chychrun if he will extend with them.

Then I have a long conversation with Claude Giroux. I need him to waive the NMC so I can get a real return for him (not a Tarasenko return) again willing to retain dollars to make it happen. I have all 3 retention slots for next year.

If I am Sens mgmt I have conceded that I probably do not make the playoffs next year

We need a big win at the draft. Right now, we have 2 firsts. If we can unload an asset that is not part of our core for a 1st, and we can hit on all 3 firsts, similar to 2020, we could be in a great position once again.

I think everyone agrees that we were in a great position 2 years ago.

We need to get a bunch of 1st and 2nds that we hit on all coming up at the same time, similar to 2 years ago.

But then, don't trade a bunch of high end assets for guys who aren't needs. Debrincat wasn't a need. A LD in chychrun wasn't a need.


Imagine having those picks and prospects to actually address and solve issues like goaltending, right D, and hard nosed 2 way middle 6 players to surround our young guys.


So we need to get back to a point similar to summer 2022 before dorions traded assets for a streaky 1 dimensional 5'7 scorer.


If we can get back to that point and then either just be patient or use the assets more wisely to actually fix glaring holes.

But that would mean we're probably 2 years away from that point and 3-4 from making the playoffs and 5+ from competing.

And that would mean a bleak next 2 years where we try to gather as many picks and prospects as possible and then make sure to surround them with the proper guys in a few years.

 

[Micklebot]

OK, time to put my debunking hat on again.

I only do this with you because I like stats, and I'm a firm believer that using stats truthfully can lead to meaningful insights. Similarly, the misuse of stats bugs the absolute living shit out of me. And also because you make it so easy with your outlandish claims.

Here we go!

So, Roy was hired after the NYI lost game 45 in OT to Chicago. They had just lost 4 in a row, and 6 of the last 7.

At this time, they were sitting at 49 pts in 45 games, or a P% 0.544. They were sitting 6th in the Metro, but only 2 points behind Detroit for the second wild card spot.

As of today, right now, they are sitting at 70 pts in 62 games, or a P% of 0.563. They are currently sitting at 4th in the Metro. They are still 2 points behind Detroit for the second wild card spot.

Just to be clear: The hiring of Roy has resulted in a P% increase of only 0.019, and the Islanders are tied in points with Detroit (who is on a 5 game losing streak), but still lose the tie-breaker for WC2.

Did he ever move the needle for the Islanders season! A whole 0.019 P% increase and 2 spots in their Division. That would have (checks notes)... not at all changed our season.

Martin increased Ottawa's pts% by .019 over DJ too, Roy confirmed equal to Martin

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Martin increased Ottawa's pts% by .019 over DJ too, Roy confirmed equal to Martin

So much effort debunked with one sentence. lol.

 

[Relapsing]

If you are trying to isolate the Roy effect the only fair way to look at is with Roy vs without Roy. I agree the sample size of 17 games is too small to draw a meaningful conclusion but grouping his 17 games with the other 45 as "his sample" is worse. Roy could only affect those 17 games - he could do nothing to change the result of the 1st 17.

You say "the misuse of stats bugs the absolute living shit out of me" In my opinion including the games he was not there in evaluating Roy meets the misuse of stats test.

A point of clarification re: mis-using stats: The Isles have played 64 games as of today. Roy has coached 19 of them, not 17. His Pts% as a coach is .605, or a 2 point record difference from your extrapolated season long record under Roy if we wanna go there.

Anyways, lets see where the Isles would be if we extrapolate (with a small sample size) the rest of the season based on his currently Pts% as a coach over the last 19 games.

He has 18 games remaining. If he continues at his current pace, then I'll graciously round up and give him an 22 extra points. Which would net him a season ending record of 94 pts, or a season Pts% of 0.573.

What the projected WC2 cutoff again? 94/95 points?

 

[bicboi64]

We need a big win at the draft. Right now, we have 2 firsts. If we can unload an asset that is not part of our core for a 1st, and we can hit on all 3 firsts, similar to 2020, we could be in a great position once again.

Parekh, Kiviharju, and get another late rounder to select Greentree. 2020.20 completed and we're good in two years

 

[Loach]

So much effort debunked with one sentence. lol.

pffft!


Lol

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I found the kid Vegas is going to get with our 2026 1st round pick as the penalty in the Dadonov "Lie to Me" trade.

 

[CDN24]

A point of clarification re: mis-using stats: The Isles have played 64 games as of today. Roy has coached 19 of them, not 17. His Pts% as a coach is .605, or a 2 point record difference from your extrapolated season long record under Roy if we wanna go there.

Anyways, lets see where the Isles would be if we extrapolate (with a small sample size) the rest of the season based on his currently Pts% as a coach over the last 19 games.

He has 18 games remaining. If he continues at his current pace, then I'll graciously round up and give him an 22 extra points. Which would net him a season ending record of 94 pts, or a season Pts% of 0.573.

What the projected WC2 cutoff again? 94/95 points?

My apologies I copied the 45 games and 62 games from your post of today, I wrongly assumed you had that part right. All I did was point out the flaw in your reasoning. All that said, I think Roy was a good hire for the Isles. Time will tell.

A .605 point percentage is good for 99 points and most years 99 points gets you into the playoffs.

 

[Relapsing]

My apologies I copied the 45 games and 62 games from your post of today, I wrongly assumed you had that part right. All I did was point out the flaw in your reasoning. All that said, I think Roy was a good hire for the Isles. Time will tell.

A .605 point percentage is good for 99 points and most years 99 points gets you into the playoffs.

LOL - So I did! My bad!

 

[Wallet Inspector]

In fairness re the 2022 and 2023 traded 1sts, it's not like players drafted with them would do much this season to get us in the playoffs.

 

[bicboi64]

In fairness re the 2022 and 2023 traded 1sts, it's not like players drafted with them would do much this season to get us in the playoffs.

I dunno man, having Korchinski in the system would've been nice (even if he's another LD) and another ELC cost controlled prospect gives us a steady pipeline + capspace to sign guys like Tarasenko

 

[Tragedy]

Sourced from https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL