GDT: FA Frenzy time ladies and gents (for everyone else that is)

[Borsig]

Doesn’t really sound like they want to move Bear:

Trade. Bye.

 

[Stickpucker]

I wonder if the Necas contract drags out a bit longer that Don doesn't look to make one more big splash and get J.T. Miller. His cap hit would almost fit without having to move Gardiner as well.

How about:

Canes: Necas, 2023 1st (top 5 protected), Bear, Suzuki
Canucks: J.T. Miller ($1M retained).

Miller would fit really well in our top six and we could even make a good run at resigning him with Jordan's salary and Max's salary coming off the books next year. If we wanted to.


I'm calling it Frank.

Seems like a pretty hefty overpayment for 1 year of Miller no? His TDL price would probably be a 1st + minor prospect...not something like Necas and Suzuki. We don't reallyyy need the retention on the 5m either. I'd only think adds like that would be needed to go /w Gardnier.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The extent to which the fanbase builds up Tlusky amuses me. It's so conditional. If the Canes don't make progress in the coming years, his genius will be seen as arrogance.

 

[Stickpucker]

reading between the lines...RBA: "KK needs to work his ass off this summer and work on his skating b/c I'm going to ride him till he breaks."

 

[LakeLivin]

I added it as an edit to an earlier post, but in case it got missed:

Bear is the Vegas Future Consideration (as long as he doesn't get a stupid arbitration award)?

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

The extent to which the fanbase builds up Tlusky amuses me. It's so conditional. If the Canes don't make progress in the coming years, his genius will be seen as arrogance.

Fair point but hard to deny the team and our moves have been much better as he's gotten more influence. Hard to argue with the moves and results in the last 4 years or so after the prior decade of mediocrity.

 

[Ole Gil]

We have a tremendous amount of space because we let all our free agents go……..

That’s not genius, that’s just letting everyone leave and finding cheaper replacements.

It's not always cheaper, but it it's usually better.

Pacioretty is making 7 million vs. Trochek's 5.6. Anderson is making 4 to Neds 3. Burns is making 5.2 to TDA's 5.
Marleau's 6 turned into Jarvis. Another free 6 turned into KK.

At some point, you have to tip your cap.

edit: oops, people already said this.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I included the "somewhat" only because some may have different definitions of genius, lol. But, yeah, I'm with you. Bachelors in Chemistry & Physics from Harvard, PhD in Chemistry from Cal Berkeley. Party to at least 20 patents. Sample job summary: Nanoscience project leader for single molecule DNA sequencing program.

One of the most impressive things I got from the interviews I read was how he was able to take principles he recognized from his science experience and apply them to hockey / life in general.

I don't consider Tulsky a genius. He's got a lot of degrees at esteemed places, but none of them really applies to sports in any way except from a data science POV. People can sometimes be very smart at specific things. I'm pretty familiar with Tulsky's history, and what he's generally really good at both in his scientific career and in the realm of hockey is with data collection and analysis. That tends to be valuable in some contexts, but that doesn't mean that he can be a genius about everything, especially when it comes to both cap management or scouting. The cap management side of things, at least in our organization, is almost entirely on Waddell. I think it's relatively clear that Tulsky will get "promoted" McFarland or McCrimmon-style to GM very shortly, but I also think that his true role will stay mostly the same.

 

[Ole Gil]

I've read some of the more in depth interviews with Tulsky and I believe he is somewhat of a "genius". He espouses some higher level general principles that I bet are above most people and applies them to hockey. One is the ability to identify "market inefficiencies" and effectively use them to the team's advantage. If a bunch of teams were successfully doing that, they wouldn't be market inefficiencies.

The Borg won't always be right, but they recognize that it's impossible to do so (unless they can find a true clairvoyant to hire, lol) and don't let that stop them from making what many see as unconventional / risky moves as long as the net sum of their risky moves stand to be positive. They're not afraid to make a mistake.

We know just from watching GM's make the same mistakes over and over, that the Canes FO is operating on ideas that a large number of franchises aren't. Still a lot of old guys going with their gut and saying "We'll deal with the cap implications when we get there."

 

[Canes]

The extent to which the fanbase builds up Tlusky amuses me. It's so conditional. If the Canes don't make progress in the coming years, his genius will be seen as arrogance.

I'm probably one of the more critical guys with respect to our front office in general but I think this is still a bit harsh. He has steadily climbed the ranks through two different GMs and as he has been given more responsibility the team has gotten progressively better. No one really knows the true extent of his contributions so it's difficult to truly judge but I think it's safe to say regardless of whether this team ever wins anything or not, he has still made a pretty big mark and probably won't have trouble finding another NHL job if he wants to. Just my opinion though.

 

[Svechhammer]

Won't like him in NY, but what a great gesture on his way out

 

[MinJaBen]

The extent to which the fanbase builds up Tlusky amuses me. It's so conditional. If the Canes don't make progress in the coming years, his genius will be seen as arrogance.

You are giving the fanbase too much credit; I'm sure we'll come up with ways to deflect the blame from Tlusky to some other person in the organization.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I don't even consider Tulsky a genius. He's got a lot of degrees at esteemed places, but none of them really applies to sports in any way except from a data science POV. People can sometimes be very smart at specific things. I'm pretty familiar with Tulsky's history, and what he's generally really good at both in his scientific career and in the realm of hockey is with data collection and analysis. That tends to be valuable in some contexts, but that doesn't mean that he can be a genius about everything, especially when it comes to both cap management or scouting. The cap management side of things, at least in our organization, is almost entirely on Waddell.

I have a sneaky feeling it's actually on Dundon.

Here's the beginning of my theory. None (or very few) of the guys in front offices around the league are actually dumb enough to think that some of these contracts are good. I highly doubt Chris Drury is sitting there like "wow, a 7 year deal for Trocheck, that will provide value the entire length of the deal!"

But depending on a team's ownership, most GMs in the league actually don't give two shits about what a team's roster looks like in 6 years. That's the next guy's boat anchor. The tenure list for GMs in the NHL isn't quite as comical as the one for coaches, but it's still not a lifetime role (unless you're David Poile). Waddell's been in this role for 4 years and is the 11th most tenured GM in the league. This is a highly paid position doing something really fun. If you're on the hot seat a bit, and can stave off getting fired for a year (and therefore guarantee another year of awesome salary) by signing a really good 29 year old, you do it - 2027 be damned.

This is where Dundon comes in. I think a big part of his initial involvement in the operations of the team was to put processes in place that keep the long-term success of the franchise in mind. Waddell doesn't need to make a giant splash to guarantee his next year. Dundon, in that sense, isn't results-oriented. If the appropriate decision based on the long-term benefit of the franchise was made, and it didn't work out, no sweat.

tl;dr I think most owners in the league are dumb and just want to throw money at things so most GMs throw money at things for short-term gain and long-term detriment in order to save their jobs for another year or two. Dundon gives Waddell the leash to make the decision that's actually best for the long-term of the franchise (and in fact Dundon expects this), which is why we do it.

 

[SlavinAway]

You are giving the fanbase too much credit; I'm sure we'll come up with ways to deflect the blame from Tlusky to some other person in the organization.

Goddamnit Darren Yorke!

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Leivo went to STL on a 1 year 1 way deal. Good for him.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I do probably agree with the guess that the cap management piece probably runs primarily through Waddell while the talent assessment piece is probably more on Tulsky.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I do probably agree with the guess that the cap management piece probably runs primarily through Waddell while the talent assessment piece is probably more on Tulsky.

I don't even think Tulsky does too much on the talent assessment EXCEPT for the data side of things. Darren Yorke and his scouting team are the ones that actually do the pro and amateur scouting and have the eyes on the players. That's the thing about organizations that have multiple eyes and brains at the top of the chain. The funny thing is that such a structure is the norm in baseball these days but an outlier in other sports.

 

[Svechhammer]

A quick Google and pretty sure Tulsky owns several patents related to the creation of and stabilization of nanoparticles. What ever the f that is.

Uhhhh


We were just joking regarding 'the Borg', right?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Brutal quote, and I think a bit out of context, but still...

 

[Svechhammer]

I have a sneaky feeling it's actually on Dundon.

To be clear, AD is saying the reason that we are such a good hockey club is because we have Dundon as owner. And part of that is because he actually is involved and cares about the long term health of the team.

Just wanted to clear that up, in case anyone had any strong opinions about Dundon that might run counter to that during this otherwise boring lunch hour.

 

[MinJaBen]

Uhhhh


We were just joking regarding 'the Borg', right?

It's why we are so willing to take smaller guys higher in the draft.

 

[cptjeff]

I don't even think Tulsky does too much on the talent assessment EXCEPT for the data side of things. Darren Yorke and his scouting team are the ones that actually do the pro and amateur scouting and have the eyes on the players. That's the thing about organizations that have multiple eyes and brains at the top of the chain. The funny thing is that such a structure is the norm in baseball these days but an outlier in other sports.

Tulsky has talked about that interaction in interviews- a lot of what he does with the data is give the scouting staff things to watch for. How to explain this discrepancy, why is this guy getting tough minutes despite his analytics being poor for that role, why is this guy not scoring as much as the expected goals says he should (as an example, Tulsky mentioned several years ago that the Canes already hadn't used shot attempt based models for years at that point).

I also think the data side of things is a far more significant piece of player assessment than it is for many teams.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I'm probably one of the more critical guys with respect to our front office in general but I think this is still a bit harsh. He has steadily climbed the ranks through two different GMs and as he has been given more responsibility the team has gotten progressively better. No one really knows the true extent of his contributions so it's difficult to truly judge but I think it's safe to say regardless of whether this team ever wins anything or not, he has still made a pretty big mark and probably won't have trouble finding another NHL job if he wants to. Just my opinion though.

I didn't mean that as a shot at him. I think because the fanbase is looking for a competitive advantage to puff our chests about (your team's GM is dumb, my team's GM is not) combined with a polarizing and everpresent analytics debate, he gets put on a pedestal in a way no one else in hockey does, save for maybe Steve Yzerman.

They definitely do things differently, but is that intellect or hubris? 2-3 years down the line, the narrative could easily be that the "Borg" has not done a good enough job in putting the pieces around the core group of players it inherited. Drafting a lot, getting the better end of trades and avoiding bad contracts doesn't necessarily win championships.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

To be clear, AD is saying the reason that we are such a good hockey club is because we have Dundon as owner. And part of that is because he actually is involved and cares about the long term health of the team.

Just wanted to clear that up, in case anyone had any strong opinions about Dundon that might run counter to that during this otherwise boring lunch hour.

I can't tell if I'm the butt of this joke that's gone over my head, or if I missed someone trashing Dundon earlier in this thread, or what... lol.

 

[MinJaBen]

Brutal quote, and I think a bit out of context, but still...

That's going to make for a pleasant "video tribute" night next season....