F Macklin Celebrini (2024, 1st, SJS)

[TLEH]

While he isn't a mega prospect like McDavid or Crosby .. Macklin is quite a unique prospect. I have a hard time coming up with a similar player that I have watched, either at the NHL level or as a prospect.

 

[93LEAFS]

A few reasons for this perhaps being that he comes the year after perhaps the most hyped prospect ever. In addition, played in a league that is somewhat obscure to the main hockey media in Canada and didn’t make Canada WJC in his d-1 like other top end players have

Very few Canadian make the WJC team at 16. Like the list is incredibly short. Off the top of my head, Gretzky, Lindros, Spezza, Bouwmeester, Crosby, McDavid and Bedard. The only real outliers are Spezza and Bouwmeester. Great early birthday high-picks like Stamkos, Thornton, Toews, etc made it in their draft year. And late birthdays like Tavares made it in their D-1. Almost no American's ever make it at 16 either (Eichel, Matthews and Jack Hughes didn't either). Off the top of my head the only 16 year olds to make the WJC outside of McDavid and Bedard in recent years have been Dahlin and Hischier, Dahlin might have had a shot at Canada or the United States but still unlikely, and no chance Hischier would have. Celebrini's situation isn't particularly rare.

 

[Breakers]

Mackinnon was a bull in a china shop, as a prospect and NHL player frankly. Tremendous physical gifts, but not a lot of creativity.

Celebrini appears more like a laser guided missile to me.

Exactly
He is relentless on his attack and just destroys the neutral zone with sheer aggressiveness, anger and speed
he's been caught on hot mics yelling "Frank outta the way" to teammates that were changing that may be in his way during an rush.

Celebrini is not like that off the rush.

 

[93LEAFS]

Because the two recent prospects you listed did it?
The rate at which prospects stay in university for another year is more common on average than one and done

For #1oa picks it's common, especially among forwards. Out of guys in his specific situation, Toews and Werenski stayed another year, whereas Hanifin went right to the NHL. I fully expect him to be like Fantilli though. Long-term earning wise it's best to get that clock to UFA going, and he can't do the burn a year trick by playing one game next year (similar situation Cooley was in).

 

[Breakers]

For #1oa picks it's common, especially among forwards. Out of guys in his specific situation, Toews and Werenski stayed another year, whereas Hanifin went right to the NHL. I fully expect him to be like Fantilli though. Long-term earning wise it's best to get that clock to UFA going, and he can't do the burn a year trick by playing one game next year (similar situation Cooley was in).

How many 1st overall picks have come from the NCAA in the past 20 years?
Like 2 without checking?

Celebrini (assuming)
Owen Power who stayed

North Dakota’s entire program is built on staying for a sophmore year and the only guy who broke that routine is Tyson Jost and Colorado said it was a mistake.

He probably will go the NHL
But Eiserman is one of his best friends and a roommate and is on record saying he is excited to room with him at BU

 

[WarriorofTime]

Lotta meta discussion about level of “hype” which means nothing at end of day.

 

[Faceboner]

Lotta meta discussion about level of “hype” which means nothing at end of day.

It just that the whole draft loses hype after 2023 since it was such a deep draft and had 4 no.1 oa caliber players where the 24 draft only has one and he is considered a tier below Bedard

 

[93LEAFS]

How many 1st overall picks have come from the NCAA in the past 20 years?
Like 2 without checking?

Celebrini (assuming)
Owen Power who stayed

North Dakota’s entire program is built on staying for a sophmore year and the only guy who broke that routine is Tyson Jost and Colorado said it was a mistake.

He probably will go the NHL
But Eiserman is one of his best friends and a roommate and is on record saying he is excited to room with him at BU

Okay, but expand it past that a bit. Eichel who would be a 1OA most years left after his freshman year. Guys who got in Hobey Baker consideration usually left after 1 year (Kariya, and Kyle Connor). Cooley a 3rd overall left. I was counting Erik Johnson who was USNTDP but did go play a year. Kessel left after one year. Turris stayed one year (but JVR stayed 2). Jack Hughes didn't even bother committing anywhere. Trouba stayed one year. Brady Tkachuk left after one year. Turcotte left after one year. Cooley after one year. Now, we did see a few other top 5 picks stay 2 years during that time frame (Cutter Gauthier, L. Hughes, Beniers, and Kent Johnson). In the cast of Beniers and Johnson they could burn an ELC year by just appearing in one game at the end of the year. I'm just saying it would be very shocking for him to stay another year since it likely would cost him an ELC year, so no agent, sorry "advisor" is going to recommend that if he's getting the type of ELC offer most first overall picks get.

 

[Faceboner]

Honestly would a good comp for him be a faster Tavares like maybe Tavares/Mackinnon hybrid?

 

[TLEH]

No one is going 2 PPG in the NCAA and going another year.

 

[Breakers]

Okay, but expand it past that a bit. Eichel who would be a 1OA most years left after his freshman year. Guys who got in Hobey Baker consideration usually left after 1 year (Kariya, and Kyle Connor). Cooley a 3rd overall left. I was counting Erik Johnson who was USNTDP but did go play a year. Kessel left after one year. Turris stayed one year (but JVR stayed 2). Jack Hughes didn't even bother committing anywhere. Trouba stayed one year. Brady Tkachuk left after one year. Turcotte left after one year. Cooley after one year. Now, we did see a few other top 5 picks stay 2 years during that time frame (Cutter Gauthier, L. Hughes, Beniers, and Kent Johnson). In the cast of Beniers and Johnson they could burn an ELC year by just appearing in one game at the end of the year. I'm just saying it would be very shocking for him to stay another year since it likely would cost him an ELC year, so no agent, sorry "advisor" is going to recommend that if he's getting the type of ELC offer most first overall picks get.

I don't think it would be shocking at all if he stayed depending on the team
He doesnt get thrown to the wolves on an absolute TRASH roster say San Jose wins,
He would be a 10.2C RFA which means nobody can offer sheet him and he still burns a year as if he was in the NHL. He gets $200k in bonuses within a few months of each other after leaving school. That is the best of both worlds if he goes to a trash roster.
Chicago would be a different story, he goes right on that roster.

He may go to the NHL and probably will, but it wouldn't be shocking to me if he didn't considering his dad speaking on education being a team doctor for Golden State Warriors who is one of the organizations that preaches patience in development and thats the reason he chose the Chicago Steel for education and development.
Plus if it is the Chicago Steel 95% chance his advisor is Pat Brisson who is on the board of the steel and he told Power, Luke Hughes, Beniers, and Kent Johnson to stay in University and go to 10.2c Status
he is on record saying he wants to play with his best friend, which could be the best show on Ice.
so it wouldn't be shocking to me depending on the team and that offseason.

also Kariya stayed in University for his sophomore year till team Canada.
Jack Johnson was a top 5 pick
Black wheeler was a top 5 pick
Vanek was a top 5 pick
Makar was a top 5 pick
whitney was a top 5 pick
Sanderson was a top 5 pick
Boeser slaughtered the NCAA and stayed

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't think it would be shocking at all if he stayed depending on the team
He doesnt get thrown to the wolves on an absolute TRASH roster say San Jose wins,
He would be a 10.2C RFA which means nobody can offer sheet him and he still burns a year as if he was in the NHL. He gets $200k in bonuses within a few months of each other after leaving school. That is the best of both worlds if he goes to a trash roster.
Chicago would be a different story, he goes right on that roster.

He may go to the NHL and probably will, but it wouldn't be shocking to me if he didn't considering his dad speaking on education being a team doctor for Golden State Warriors who is one of the organizations that preaches patience in development and thats the reason he chose the Chicago Steel for education and development.
Plus if it is the Chicago Steel 95% chance his advisor is Pat Brisson who is on the board of the steel and he told Power, Luke Hughes, Beniers, and Kent Johnson to stay in University and go to 10.2c Status
he is on record saying he wants to play with his best friend, which could be the best show on Ice.
so it wouldn't be shocking to me depending on the team and that offseason.

also Kariya stayed in University for his sophomore year till team Canada.
Jack Johnson was a top 5 pick
Black wheeler was a top 5 pick
Vanek was a top 5 pick
Makar was a top 5 pick
whitney was a top 5 pick
Sanderson was a top 5 pick
Boeser slaughtered the NCAA and stayed

He doesn't burn a year if he leaves and plays below a certain amount of games. He would end up a usual RFA when his contract ends. He would have to stay until after his jr year to qualify for that. It would be the same situation as Clayton Keller, who had his entry-level slide despite playing 3 games.

 

[Breakers]

He doesn't burn a year if he leaves and plays below a certain amount of games. He would end up a usual RFA when his contract ends. He would have to stay until after his jr year to qualify for that. It would be the same situation as Clayton Keller, who had his entry-level slide despite playing 3 games.

Mehhhh still wouldn't shock me

 

[93LEAFS]

Meh still wouldn't shock me

Maybe, but it costs him a high pay-day year, unlike most other guys who stay but then are able to burn a year by getting one game.

 

[Breakers]

Maybe, but it costs him a high pay-day year, unlike most other guys who stay but then are able to burn a year by getting one game.

seen other guys do it too many times and stay in university, so it's not shocking.

 

[93LEAFS]

seen other guys do it too many times and stay in university, so it's not shocking.

Who has stayed in recent years when it costs they couldn't burn a year by playing one game and the NHL is a viable option? Cale Makar is the only one I can really think of who stayed an extra year and it delayed his 2nd contract. It was AHL, OHL, or NCAA for Keller. Power was able to burn the year at the end, same with Beniers. His situation is just rare as he fast-tracked high school to get to the NCAA early. So, all we really have is Toews, Hanifin and Werenski as examples. And, Toews is from like 16 years ago. Like, the only real comparables situation-wise are Jack Hughes (who didn't even bother to commit) and Erik Johnson (who did play NCAA one year). Those are really the only NCAA guys who were Early Birthdays who likely would have been given a full NHL spot off the bat. Celebrini is just in a weird situation where he would have to wait until his junior year to sign to burn a year off his ELC after playing 1 game. Plus, he's playing at a level where he will get a legitimate NHL spot next year. Like, Fantilli didn't even stay and he could have done the burn year trick.

 

[Breakers]

Who has stayed in recent years when it costs they couldn't burn a year by playing one game and the NHL is a viable option? Cale Makar is the only one I can really think of who stayed an extra year and it delayed his 2nd contract. It was AHL, OHL, or NCAA for Keller. Power was able to burn the year at the end, same with Beniers. His situation is just rare as he fast-tracked high school to get to the NCAA early. So, all we really have is Toews, Hanifin and Werenski as examples. And, Toews is from like 16 years ago. Like, the only real comparables situation-wise are Jack Hughes (who didn't even bother to commit) and Erik Johnson (who did play NCAA one year). Those are really the only NCAA guys who were Early Birthdays who likely would have been given a full NHL spot off the bat. Celebrini is just in a weird situation where he would have to wait until his junior year to sign to burn a year off his ELC after playing 1 game. Plus, he's playing at a level where he will get a legitimate NHL spot next year. Like, Fantilli didn't even stay and he could have done the burn year trick.

You make it sound like contracts are the only thing that matters in development.

 

[93LEAFS]

You make it sound like contracts are the only thing that matters in development.

They aren't but long-term earnings is always on people (especially agents/advisors mind), and barring something dramatically changing, he's likely ready for a top 9 NHL role next year. If he was signing to play 4th line that's one thing (and I would say terrible development). Unless you don't think he's ready for the NHL, that's a different case. But, passing up an NHL role (where you will get ice-time) plus delaying burning a year is generally not advisable.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

They aren't but long-term earnings is always on people (especially agents/advisors mind), and barring something dramatically changing, he's likely ready for a top 9 NHL role next year. If he was signing to play 4th line that's one thing (and I would say terrible development). Unless you don't think he's ready for the NHL, that's a different case. But, passing up an NHL role (where you will get ice-time) plus delaying burning a year is generally not advisable.

Yeah I could only see him staying if he drastically tails off the second half and/or ends up a Shark.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I mostly agree, though I’ll say Jack Hughes was a very divisive prospect. The skill level was obviously elite, insane skating and hands especially, but he was also small, skinny, and played a pretty “junior” game at the time, did a lot of things he clearly wouldn’t get away with in the NHL. He was setting NTDP scoring records, but opinions on him as a prospect were quite mixed.

Some people loved him, thought he was a high end 1OA, but many had significant doubts. Overall he wasn’t seen as a “can’t miss” prospect, more a guy with very high upside, but quite a bit more risk than you normally have with a 1OA. Agreed that Laf was more hyped, he wasn’t as fast but seemed to have a more well rounded game, seemed like a safer bet with also high upside. Obviously not how it turned out, but I think that’s an accurate reflection of pre-draft hype about both players.

Celebrini has the elite production, a pro style game, and excellent tools. No doubt he’s a terrific prospect, and I would say a better prospect at the same age than Jack Hughes. Of course things don’t always pan out that way, Jack has developed beautifully, Celebrini could as well but could also be more like Laf, only time will tell.

Hughes was not “very divisive” lol. Only a handful of internet posters, hobby scouts, and bloggers clung the idea that he was too small for an NHL center and had a muffin shot. Naturally, the Finns were haters as well because they loved Kakko, so that added to it. Kakko’s golden WJC gold and men’s WC made it a closer race that it should have been. Hughes destroyed the U18 WC and set all kinds of NTDP records. He was a wire-to-wire No. 1.

There was a dude on here making videos of Hughes turning pucks over to prop Kakko up. Funniest shit. Blade Paradigm was his handle and he would not relent lol.

Celebrini is different than Hughes outside of position. I know people like playing the game of comparing previous No. 1 OA picks with the next kid in the chute, but you probably won’t find a good one for Celebrini, who plays more like star NHL’ers not drafted first overall (Toews, Scheifele, Seguin, Zibanejad, to name a few)

 

[Steve Kournianos]

No one is going 2 PPG in the NCAA and going another year.

This is how I see it. He has nothing left to prove unless BU loses a title shot and it crushes him. His agent and camp probably advising him to be one and done, as they should considering he’ll likely be a 1OA.

 

[TLEH]

Celebrini is different than Hughes outside of position. I know people like playing the game of comparing previous No. 1 OA picks with the next kid in the chute, but you probably won’t find a good one for Celebrini, who plays more like star NHL’ers not drafted first overall (Toews, Scheifele, Seguin, Zibanejad, to name a few)

Really hard to get a comp for him. Toews is probably my closest just due to his play style, but he has more raw talent. I've seen Seguin but even 21 year old Seguin didn't compete as hard as 17 year old Macklin.

This is how I see it. He has nothing left to prove unless BU loses a title shot and it crushes him. His agent and camp probably advising him to be one and done, as they should.

Being 245 days younger than Fantilli while putting up essentially the same season, if not better, makes it a no brainer for me.

I can see the physical element with Fantilli being much more developed physically but doesn't put me off.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Celebrini is different than Hughes outside of position. I know people like playing the game of comparing previous No. 1 OA picks with the next kid in the chute, but you probably won’t find a good one for Celebrini, who plays more like star NHL’ers not drafted first overall (Toews, Scheifele, Seguin, Zibanejad, to name a few)

I was hesitant to say it after the u18 where I thought he skated like MacKinnon but wanted to wait and see him at a higher level, but the aforementioned would be my comparison now. Explosive galloping stride, great vision, great one timer, attacks the neutral zone and opponent’s triangles with speed, both built thick, etc. Not Bédard but is one of the more special prospects I’ve seen, I’d be curious to see what his hype would be like if he decided to play in Seattle instead.

 

[Konnan511]

Maybe, but it costs him a high pay-day year, unlike most other guys who stay but then are able to burn a year by getting one game.

He should look to be getting that sweet sweet NIL money.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Lotta meta discussion about level of “hype” which means nothing at end of day.

Just makes it easy to gauge if he's a bust 2 games into his NHL career