F James Hagens - USNTDP Juniors, USHL (2025 Draft)

[mphmiles]

If you think you're drafting a guy that might be able to command 14 million in contract negotiations you flip the table over on your way to the podium

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

That is a crazy take. Misa strikes me as the kind of player that will drive a coach crazy with his lack of commitment and attention to defense. I'll take the flip side of that bet and say he'll struggle to get ice time despite his stellar offensive skills.

I didn't say he won't be a star. I just don't see him winning a cup. He will be the first overall pick in this upcoming draft. But my favourite is Misa.

Misa I see being a similar or better player than Dylan Larkin with a lot more upside. What I love about Misa is he just goes to the right places and makes things happen. But I also love to make takes that are crazy.

Mind you, I did call McTavish going high in the 2021 NHL Draft before covid.

 

[JotAlan]

A statistical curiosity. If Hagens was in the chl, for a weak or average team, what would his stat line be? Something like 50-80-130 in 60 games?

 

[wetcoast]

A statistical curiosity. If Hagens was in the chl, for a weak or average team, what would his stat line be? Something like 50-80-130 in 60 games?

For a weak or average team...something less of course in his draft year as even players in their D+1 and D+2 years struggle to hit beyond 110ish points.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

For a weak or average team...something less of course in his draft year as even players in their D+1 and D+2 years struggle to hit beyond 110ish points.

Bedard was 143 and Catton 116. Hagens is older at the time of his draft than both. 130 seems reasonable to me.

 

[wetcoast]

Bedard was 143 and Catton 116. Hagens is older at the time of his draft than both. 130 seems reasonable to me.

Sure it's possible but both are WHL guys and the question was CHL so that's 1 out of 3 leagues and Bedard simply was a generational prospect so it's not a slam dunk but who really cares as we won't find out.

 

[JotAlan]

Sure it's possible but both are WHL guys and the question was CHL so that's 1 out of 3 leagues and Bedard simply was a generational prospect so it's not a slam dunk but who really cares as we won't find out.

Kind of controversial on your part considering you responded lol. anyway.
I mentioned CHL because his rights belong to the London Knights and not a WHL team, but despite the CHL in general having only 7 (One of them being Marco Rossi with 120 and let's face it James is a superior talent), players who surpassed 100 points in their draft year in the last 5 years, we can say that Hagens is a better talent than all of them except Bedard.
He put up 1.81ppg in his D-1 Ushl, and despite playing for the ntdp it was one of the worst ntdp teams of all time. In his draft year I think it's hard for him not to eclipse 2ppg in any Chl league, which would take him to around 130 points.

 

[wetcoast]

Kind of controversial on your part considering you responded lol. anyway.
I mentioned CHL because his rights belong to the London Knights and not a WHL team, but despite the CHL in general having only 7 (One of them being Marco Rossi with 120 and let's face it James is a superior talent), players who surpassed 100 points in their draft year in the last 5 years, we can say that Hagens is a better talent than all of them except Bedard.
He put up 1.81ppg in his D-1 Ushl, and despite playing for the ntdp it was one of the worst ntdp teams of all time. In his draft year I think it's hard for him not to eclipse 2ppg in any Chl league, which would take him to around 130 points.

Sure okay it's all a guess anyways but maybe you can bring it up when not a single draft eligible player gets to 130 points this year in the CHL or 120, 100 whatever I guess.

Too many people seem to be focused on points instead of skillsets and projection overall around here sometimes and that's not directed at you but in general.

 

[JotAlan]

Sure okay it's all a guess anyways but maybe you can bring it up when not a single draft eligible player gets to 130 points this year in the CHL or 120, 100 whatever I guess.

Too many people seem to be focused on points instead of skillsets and projection overall around here sometimes and that's not directed at you but in general.

I understand and even agree. But look, everyone who follows it already knows the set of skills, the post was precisely a statistical curiosity, if you are not interested, just don't respond and continue dealing with whoever is commenting on projection and set of skills.
But it is precisely because of his high skill set that causes curiosity about how he would have performed in the Canadian leagues.

 

[HairyKneel]

I didn't say he won't be a star. I just don't see him winning a cup. He will be the first overall pick in this upcoming draft. But my favourite is Misa.

Misa I see being a similar or better player than Dylan Larkin with a lot more upside. What I love about Misa is he just goes to the right places and makes things happen. But I also love to make takes that are crazy.

Mind you, I did call McTavish going high in the 2021 NHL Draft before covid.

You don't see him winning a cup? Do you think players win cups on their own?
.
Must be a big Kevin Lowe fan or perhaps Carbo is your jam. Perhaps Rich Chartraw? Ken Morrow? He had a solid beard btw.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

I understand and even agree. But look, everyone who follows it already knows the set of skills, the post was precisely a statistical curiosity, if you are not interested, just don't respond and continue dealing with whoever is commenting on projection and set of skills.
But it is precisely because of his high skill set that causes curiosity about how he would have performed in the Canadian leagues.

I think a good starting point would be Patrick Kane's 2006-07 season with the London Knights.

Had Hagens played junior this season, it would have been with the London Knights, who own his CHL rights. Hagens would also have been in his 18-year-old season, too, because they both have late birthdays.

In 2006-07, Kane had 62 goals, 83 assists and 145 points in 58 games in a season when scoring in the league was 7.34 goals per game (per QuantHockey)

Scoring in the OHL last season was 7.15 goals per game (again per QuantHockey in same link as above) and was 7.48 the year before that. Scoring in the OHL can be reasonably expected to be around the same as it was when Kane played. So far, all things are equal.

Here's what Kane did with USNTDP in his U18 season:

Here's what Hagens did last year with USNTDP in his U18 season:

Kane outproduced him in league play, but that's a small sample size. Also, one could argue the NAHL then was weaker than the USHL is now, but, overall, Hagens averaged 1.76 points per game while Kane had 1.58 points per game.

Kane played about 15 fewer games that year than Hagens did last year, so it's possible that Kane had some injury that kept him out for a bit, or maybe that year's NTDP just played fewer games.

At the world under-18 tournament, Kane played great, getting 2 ppg, but Hagens outscored Kane as he set the tournament scoring record getting more than 3 ppg.

In 2006-07, the London Knights had 104 points in 68 games and had the best regular season record in the OHL. In 2023-24, amazingly, they had the same point total in the same number of games. Hagens would be joining this team, which has graduated some key players, but he would help mitigate that. London doesn't rebuild so much as it reloads. Safe to say, though, Hagens would not be joining a doormat and would have some talented players that would make a productive season possible.

Assuming Hagens gets time off over the holidays to play with world junior team, he'd play about the same number of games as Kane and would be a safe bet to get 145 points, as Kane did.

Based on previous production, you could argue that Hagens might even outperform him, but players develop at different paces. Maybe Hagens took a big surge last year and Kane's was in his 18yo season. Maybe Kane had an injury that held him back as a 17yo, I don't know and don't remember so perhaps someone with a better memory than me can enlighten us.

 

[JotAlan]

I think a good starting point would be Patrick Kane's 2006-07 season with the London Knights.

Had Hagens played junior this season, it would have been with the London Knights, who own his CHL rights. Hagens would also have been in his 18-year-old season, too, because they both have late birthdays.

In 2006-07, Kane had 62 goals, 83 assists and 145 points in 58 games in a season when scoring in the league was 7.34 goals per game (per QuantHockey)

Scoring in the OHL last season was 7.15 goals per game (again per QuantHockey in same link as above) and was 7.48 the year before that. Scoring in the OHL can be reasonably expected to be around the same as it was when Kane played. So far, all things are equal.

Here's what Kane did with USNTDP in his U18 season:
View attachment 912906

Here's what Hagens did last year with USNTDP in his U18 season:
View attachment 912907

Kane outproduced him in league play, but that's a small sample size. Also, one could argue the NAHL then was weaker than the USHL is now, but, overall, Hagens averaged 1.76 points per game while Kane had 1.58 points per game.

Kane played about 15 fewer games that year than Hagens did last year, so it's possible that Kane had some injury that kept him out for a bit, or maybe that year's NTDP just played fewer games.

At the world under-18 tournament, Kane played great, getting 2 ppg, but Hagens outscored Kane as he set the tournament scoring record getting more than 3 ppg.

In 2006-07, the London Knights had 104 points in 68 games and had the best regular season record in the OHL. In 2023-24, amazingly, they had the same point total in the same number of games. Hagens would be joining this team, which has graduated some key players, but he would help mitigate that. London doesn't rebuild so much as it reloads. Safe to say, though, Hagens would not be joining a doormat and would have some talented players that would make a productive season possible.

Assuming Hagens gets time off over the holidays to play with world junior team, he'd play about the same number of games as Kane and would be a safe bet to get 145 points, as Kane did.

Based on previous production, you could argue that Hagens might even outperform him, but players develop at different paces. Maybe Hagens took a big surge last year and Kane's was in his 18yo season. Maybe Kane had an injury that held him back as a 17yo, I don't know and don't remember so perhaps someone with a better memory than me can enlighten us.

Good point. I was going to use Kane as a comparable. To be reasonable, precisely because children do not have linear development, I adjusted the score downwards. But yes, it was even possible that Hagens would surpass him, but I don't believe it, because I don't believe that Hagens would surpass Bedard's production. I'd say 120-130 in 58 games would be a safer bet.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Good point. I was going to use Kane as a comparable. To be reasonable, precisely because children do not have linear development, I adjusted the score downwards. But yes, it was even possible that Hagens would surpass him, but I don't believe it, because I don't believe that Hagens would surpass Bedard's production. I'd say 120-130 in 58 games would be a safer bet.

Not all draft seasons are created equal, and we have the NHL's draft eligibility rule to thank for that.

Bedard was only in his 17-year-old season and was on the young side (July birthdate), so he was 17 years and two months (roughly) on Oct. 1 at the start of his draft year.

Because of his late birthday, Hagens will be in his 18-year-old season, but will also be on the older side as he was 17 years and 11 months old on Oct. 1 at the start of his draft season.

Predicting Hagens to outproduce Bedard under these circumstances does not mean you think Hagens will be a more productive NHLer.

Something else to consider about Bedard and his draft year production is that he was on an average Regina team. There was some external pressure for them to trade Bedard for futures, but they didn't and made the playoffs, where they lost in the first round. If they had done a better job surrounding him with talent, he would have put up much better numbers.

 

[Mathieukferland]

It’s pretty a pretty useless exercise because he’s either going to the NHL next year or back to the NCAA, but if he were to play in the CHL this year, I’m going to guess ~115~ points, I think him and McKenna are the same level of prospect and same level of ability currently and I think McKenna will end up around 115, so I will go for the same amount for Hagens

 

[JotAlan]

Not all draft seasons are created equal, and we have the NHL's draft eligibility rule to thank for that.

Bedard was only in his 17-year-old season and was on the young side (July birthdate), so he was 17 years and two months (roughly) on Oct. 1 at the start of his draft year.

Because of his late birthday, Hagens will be in his 18-year-old season, but will also be on the older side as he was 17 years and 11 months old on Oct. 1 at the start of his draft season.

Predicting Hagens to outproduce Bedard under these circumstances does not mean you think Hagens will be a more productive NHLer.

Something else to consider about Bedard and his draft year production is that he was on an average Regina team. There was some external pressure for them to trade Bedard for futures, but they didn't and made the playoffs, where they lost in the first round. If they had done a better job surrounding him with talent, he would have put up much better numbers.

Yes, but I didn't predict he would overcome it, in fact I believe it wouldn't happen, even though I'm older. I agree with the rest. By the way, what would your prediction be?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It’s pretty a pretty useless exercise because he’s either going to the NHL next year or back to the NCAA, but if he were to play in the CHL this year, I’m going to guess ~115~ points, I think him and McKenna are the same level of prospect and same level of ability currently and I think McKenna will end up around 115, so I will go for the same amount for Hagens

So he’s worse than Catton was last year at 116 points? I’m as big of a Catton fan as anyone, but seems hard to believe.

 

[Mathieukferland]

So he’s worse than Catton was last year at 116 points? I’m as big of a Catton fan as anyone, but seems hard to believe.

Yeah, I think it’s still fair. Catton’s season last year was the 4th best CHL DY in the 21st century or something of that nature, and I think Hagens and Catton have fairly similar offensive ceilings; the big difference between them is obviously Hagens plays a much more thorough and better defensive game than Catton, but the original question asked about points, not overall attributes.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Yes, but I didn't predict he would overcome it, in fact I believe it wouldn't happen, even though I'm older. I agree with the rest. By the way, what would your prediction be?

I'd say best case, he could repeat Kane's production. This year's London Knights team, I don't have an accurate sense of their talent yet. In Kane's year, he had Sam Gagner and Sergei Kostitsyn riding shotgun.

I would comfortably predict 125-130 points for Hagens, though. I think he's a damn good player. He might not be as good as Kane offensively, but he's a much better player in other aspects of the game, especially defence.

 

[JotAlan]

Yeah, I think it’s still fair. Catton’s season last year was the 4th best CHL DY in the 21st century or something of that nature, and I think Hagens and Catton have fairly similar offensive ceilings; the big difference between them is obviously Hagens plays a much more thorough and better defensive game than Catton, but the original question asked about points, not overall attributes.

I see your point about Catton's 4th best Chl season of the 21st century. But if James were a 2024 drafter there is no way he would be 8th. He was already as good as, if not better than, Catton offensively last year.
I know it's scary to think, but this year he would obliterate those numbers. Maybe he would replicate Kane's numbers, which would be Bedard territory, except of course, much older.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

You don't see him winning a cup? Do you think players win cups on their own?
.
Must be a big Kevin Lowe fan or perhaps Carbo is your jam. Perhaps Rich Chartraw? Ken Morrow? He had a solid beard btw.

Wow... you must be too young to remember how sick Pat Lafontaine was.