F Brayden Yager - Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL (2023, 14th, PIT; traded to WPG)

[Breakfast of Champs]

His tools always blew me away but his production is a little "mediocre" Maybe he turns into a MacKinnon-lite or Barzal type - in that his production always kind of lagged the eye test, but maybe he's just not that good of a finisher or his offensive IQ isn't elite.

I think he might still be worth a top 10 pick , but this draft is loaded and I wouldn't be shocked if he fell like Barzal.

 

[landy92mack29]

He's still top 5 for me and probably the most complete forward in the draft this year slightly above Danielson, Moose Jaw just isn't clicking this year. Unlike guys like Fantilli, Strammel, etc he is far from physically mature so when he fills out he'll be a lot more bullish on rushes similar to Mackinnon

 

[WeThreeKings]

I still have him at 6.. it's not like there's many other players who have absolutely beaten the door down.

He's competitive, a great skater, and has one of the best shots in the draft.

Hard to find guys like that.

 

[vildurson]

I still have him at 6.. it's not like there's many other players who have absolutely beaten the door down.

He's competitive, a great skater, and has one of the best shots in the draft.

Hard to find guys like that.

Expected top guys aren't producing insane amounts so around top 5 is fine.

Michkov and Carlsson both haven't exactly destroyed score sheets either as well.

I still like the whole package of Yager and potential for more better playmaking tools so he is still my 3rd pick. He is also good at faceoffs and pretty decent defensively in his own zone.

Him, Carlsson and Michkov are pretty much neck and neck right now for me though. Still depends how rest of the season goes for them.

 

[ijif]

Expected top guys aren't producing insane amounts so around top 5 is fine.

Michkov and Carlsson both haven't exactly destroyed score sheets either as well.

I still like the whole package of Yager and potential for more better playmaking tools so he is still my 3rd pick. He is also good at faceoffs and pretty decent defensively in his own zone.

Him, Carlsson and Michkov are pretty much neck and neck right now for me though. Still depends how rest of the season goes for them.

By NHLe/NNHLe, Michkov and Carlsson are having better seasons, and it is not that close. I am using CJ Turtoro's model/research. He calls it NNHLe, and he gives each league an NNHLe value in terms of 10th percentile, 50th percentile, and 90th percentile, so instead of giving each player a singular score, we can create a band or range.

Player/Percentile	10th	50th	90th
B. Yager	13.5	16.32	19.24
L. Carlsson	17.68	22.45	27.23
M. Michkov	19.61	25.73	32.62
C. Bedard	25.2	30.4	35.8

I'm not sure what you define as destroying the score sheet, but an NHL/NNHLe of 20+ is a strong draft season.

It should be noted that while Michkov and Carlsson are both U19 players, and Yager is a U18 player, they are all basically the same age. Yager turns 18 today, and the other two turned 18 in DEC.

 

[95snipes]

He's not quite as good as I thought he was last year, but he's still in the mix for top 5 and no later than 7 for me. At the end of last year, I thought he was a potential superstar and had him 3 thinking there was a small chance he could challenge Bedard for the top spot if he had a big year. But that clearly won't be happening. I started to sour a bit on him at the Hlinka Gretzky where he was good, but looked to be more of a star than a superstar just by the eye test.

Not sure he's a franchise player, but should be a good top 6 forward for any team with 35+ goal potential. Common knowledge by now, but his release is excellent and he skates well enough to put himself in dangerous positions to make use of it.

 

[samsagat]

McKinnon lite is right on point imho.

He has the same kind of straight line powerful skating.
His shot is very deceptive.
Improving playmaking.

I remember McKinnon stats weren't that impressive in his draft year. Drouin had better stats.

But the kind of game Yagers' play translate very well to the NHL: very good pace and powerful.

If Smith's gone, he'd be my 2nd choice if Habs are drafting 6th overall.

 

[JotAlan]

By NHLe/NNHLe, Michkov and Carlsson are having better seasons, and it is not that close. I am using CJ Turtoro's model/research. He calls it NNHLe, and he gives each league an NNHLe value in terms of 10th percentile, 50th percentile, and 90th percentile, so instead of giving each player a singular score, we can create a band or range.

Player/Percentile	10th	50th	90th
B. Yager	13.5	16.32	19.24
L. Carlsson	17.68	22.45	27.23
M. Michkov	19.61	25.73	32.62
C. Bedard	25.2	30.4	35.8

I'm not sure what you define as destroying the score sheet, but an NHL/NNHLe of 20+ is a strong draft season.

It should be noted that while Michkov and Carlsson are both U19 players, and Yager is a U18 player, they are all basically the same age. Yager turns 18 today, and the other two turned 18 in DEC.

How are Will Smith, Zach Benson, Andrew Cristall and Riley Heidt according to this model? And how do I find the model?

 

[Playmaker09]

McKinnon lite is right on point imho.

He has the same kind of straight line powerful skating.
His shot is very deceptive.
Improving playmaking.

I remember McKinnon stats weren't that impressive in his draft year. Drouin had better stats.

But the kind of game Yagers' play translate very well to the NHL: very good pace and powerful.

If Smith's gone, he'd be my 2nd choice if Habs are drafting 6th overall.

Not gonna work when he's 165 lbs. Can't play like MacKinnon when you're built like RNH.

And it took MacKinnon like 5 years to get his game to take off in the NHL.

 

[slumpy43]

Some info here

https://cj-turtoro.shinyapps.io/NNHLe-writeup/

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Last night's stream was a bit choppy so I didn't get to see all of it, but I thought Yager looked pretty good from what I saw, was my favorite performance from him thus far (and I'm hardly his biggest fan).

Made some nice passes to teammates streaking towards the slot, and he did a good job separating the puck from a defender in OT to create another scoring chance (though he also notably passed up on another play that would have surely sealed it earlier).

 

[stevo61]

Not gonna work when he's 165 lbs. Can't play like MacKinnon when you're built like RNH.

And it took MacKinnon like 5 years to get his game to take off in the NHL.

Then call him MacKinnon light. Hes got lots of time to add size even if he is highly unlikely to ever be built like MacKinnon. Its easier to build size and strength vs things like hockey IQ

 

[MichaelFarrell]

People have been down on Yager recently but I love this guy. The tools are there. He’s top 5 for me. I love this player. I’ve been watching Moose Jaw all year and he’s had some up and down games, but I truly believe he has the tools to be a first line player in the NHL.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

4 assists tonight against powerhouse Seattle.

 

[Bubbles]

4 assists tonight against powerhouse Seattle.

Must have been the jerseys

 

[FourQuarters]

Must have been the jerseys

ice has the better sponge bob

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Another game where Yager did not score a goal today. He has scored 2 goals since December 11th. For a player who scored 34 goals at age 16 and displayed a great shot, this is really puzzling to me to see the goals dry up to this extent. Is he playing through an injury?

His assists rate is very good (37 in 51 games) and that's miles better than what he did last year. But to see one of the strengths of his game regress, it just seems very odd.

 

[FourQuarters]

Another game where Yager did not score a goal today. He has scored 2 goals since December 11th. For a player who scored 34 goals at age 16 and displayed a great shot, this is really puzzling to me to see the goals dry up to this extent. Is he playing through an injury?

His assists rate is very good (37 in 51 games) and that's miles better than what he did last year. But to see one of the strengths of his game regress, it just seems very odd.

My concern on him is most of his assists is powerplay assists(20/37), and isn't primary assists. He was on the circle, where's easy to grab points, but I can't recall too many great pass he made on the powerplay.

 

[Nabrules]

I want to like him so much. He has really good tools but he constantly disappoints me. At this point he’s not in my top 10 anymore. Partly because of a strong top group but also his own play, let’s see how he finished off.

 

[jfhabs]

Not gonna work when he's 165 lbs. Can't play like MacKinnon when you're built like RNH.

And it took MacKinnon like 5 years to get his game to take off in the NHL.

That's true.
A lot of guys trying to play big end up injured all the time if their physic won't allow it.
I think Turcotte is an example of that. Leblanc from years ago had the same issue (+skating).

To be faire it took MacKinnon 5 years to be a top 5 player. I don't think anyone expect this of Yager, even in the best of scenarios. Mac was still a good top 6 player on atrocious Avs teams during those 4 years.

 

[Lion Hound]

Must have been the jerseys

Holy shit! They actually wore those sweaters?

 

[Lavar Ball]

Vintage Yager snipe

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Starting to score goals after I called him out...

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Yager reminds me a little of Horvat. Maybe a little better at skating and right handed.

 

[ForsbergForever]

What happened with this kid? He's had such a blah season stats wise, what's been the issue for him? It seems like most of the hype for him going into this season has dissipated as he's not really talked about much.

Will he still go top 10 based on name recognition alone?