F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[BondraTime]

Well, it's a bit of a thing because the first hockey groups are by birth year, so if it's the u5 group for example, an early birthday can't join it until almost a year older.

For example if in Finland the first age group that gets proper lessons are the ones born in 2013, it makes quite a bit of difference whether you were born in 2013 December or 2014 January when applying for that group at the start of the season.

Yeah, it's the same in Canada

 

[Ctrain2k]

Best chl point producer since John Tavares?

 

[Genghis Keon]

They were both in their 17 year old season. Lafreniere is a late birthday pushing his draft back a year so he will be drafted in his 18 year old season (3rd CHL season by his birthyear compared to the 2nd CHL season by McDavids birthyear).

Both are from Canada, both play in the exact same hockey system which is based on birthyear, in which they will have the exact same amount of developmental years. The NHL draft doesn't go by birthyear. Lafreniere gets a full extra year of hockey prior to being drafted than McDavid did.

McDavid was given exceptional status, letting him play in the CHL at a time when Lafreniere was still in midget in his developmental stage.

You don't go by age like that for a reason.

Yes, he did play on a better team. Their top line are all 1st line players in the NHL, and McDavid out produced them by a very, very significant amount, 2.55ppg vs 1.8 for Strome.

If McDavid played in his 18 year old season like Lafreniere is about to, he would have put up 3+ ppg, McDavid scored over a ppg in the NHL as an 18 year old.

Did you play growing up? If so, you know what it means by developmental years by playing in your birthyear in Canada.

McDavid
15 year old season - 66p in 63gp in CHL (Exceptional Status)
16 year old season- 99p in 56gp in CHL (1st year 97's eligible in CHL)
17 year old season - 120p in 47gp in CHL (2nd year 97's eligible in CHL)
18 year old season - 48p in 45 gp in NHL

Lafreniere
15 year old season - 83p in Midget
16 year old season- 80p in 60gp in CHL (1st year 01's eligible in CHL)
17 year old season - 103p in 57gp in CHL (2nd year 01's eligible in CHL)
18 year old season - ? in ? in CHL (3rd year 01's eligible in CHL)

For the sake of argument, let's say McDavid was born 13 days earlier than he was. Less than two full weeks. So December 31, 1996, instead of January 13, 1997. How do you think his development would have been different? He would have been able to play in 2012-2013 without needing to be granted exceptional status, so his 15 year old season would now be considered his 16 year old season. Do you think his stats would have been noticeably different because it would now be his 16 year old season? Do you think his subsequent seasons would have been significantly different?

Personally, I think he would have likely put up similar stats the whole way up.

That said, obviously he was a significantly better prospect than Lafrenière, regardless of stats.

 

[BondraTime]

For the sake of argument, let's say McDavid was born 13 days earlier than he was. Less than two full weeks. So December 31, 1996, instead of January 13, 1997. How do you think his development would have been different? He would have been able to play in 2012-2013 without needing to be granted exceptional status, so his 15 year old season would now be considered his 16 year old season. Do you think his stats would have been noticeably different because it would now be his 16 year old season? Do you think his subsequent seasons would have been significantly different?

Personally, I think he would have likely put up similar stats the whole way up.

That said, obviously he was a significantly better prospect than Lafrenière, regardless of stats.

He would have been granted exceptional status as a 15 year old with Ekblad in 2011-12, played his 16 and 17 year old seasons in the OHL and they'd have been similar/the same as the seasons he had. He'd just get to play an extra year in the OHL lie Lafreniere gets next year.

If he played Midget in his 1st year and then went to the OHL at 16, yes his seasons would be similar/same as they were in my opinion.

 

[93LEAFS]

If people are going to argue endlessly about the age/draft cut-off thing. It should be noted Tavares dramatically outperformed him when you look at how scoring from each league translates at 16 and 17, and Hall was on the same level. McDavid outperformed both significantly in the OHL towards the end of his time there.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Winger Tavares is a good comparison. He's a very clinical point producer, despite not being the fastest player. He does a lot well, and has a good 200 foot game. There's not much to pick apart about his game, although he doesn't play a dominant style in junior hockey. You'd expect dominance from most elite prospects in juniors, regardless of style of play, but Lafreniere manages to be really good without being a player who takes over games.

 

[Crispix56]

Winger Tavares is a really good comparison.

 

[Hfbsux]

If people are going to argue endlessly about the age/draft cut-off thing. It should be noted Tavares dramatically outperformed him when you look at how scoring from each league translates at 16 and 17, and Hall was on the same level. McDavid outperformed both significantly in the OHL towards the end of his time there.

Lafreniere has 13 pts more than Hall in less than 5 games played in their D-1 season. Not to mention he will probably end up the season with better numbers than Hall's D season. How did you come up with the conclusion that they are on the same level? I'm not even gonna compare the teams they were playing for..

Tavares "outperformed" both Lafreniere and McDavid in their D-2 and D-1 season. Although, McDavid outscored him by a wide margin in his draft year. I expect Lafreniere to do the same but not beat Connor's draft season numbers. Lafreniere has almost the same ppg in his D-1 than Tavares' draft season...

 

[93LEAFS]

Lafreniere has 13 pts more than Hall in less than 5 games played in their D-1 season. Not to mention he will probably end up the season with better numbers than Hall's D season. How did you come up with the conclusion that they are on the same level? I'm not even gonna compare the teams they were playing for..

Tavares "outperformed" both Lafreniere and McDavid in their D-2 and D-1 season. Although, McDavid outscored him by a wide margin in his draft year. I expect Lafreniere to do the same but not beat Connor's draft season numbers. Lafreniere has almost the same ppg in his D-1 than Tavares' draft season...

OHL scoring is more transferable historically to the NHL when you adjust for league quality. Hall also had absolutely unreal playoff production.

 

[WildWillie]

OHL scoring is more transferable historically to the NHL when you adjust for league quality. Hall also had absolutely unreal playoff production.

You are correct in saying OHL is more transferable on a league basis, but if you are going to apply a multiplier of 1.15 for strength of competition (or whatever # it is that you use), I think you have to then consider all the other factors like the strength of you own team. Hall played on incredibly stacked Windsor teams that included Ryan Ellis, Adam Henrique, Zack Kassian, Camp Fowler, Richard Panik. Their whole team was NHL drafted. Lafreniere doesn't play with 1 guy who is drafted to the NHL above the 6th round.

 

[93LEAFS]

You are correct in saying OHL is more transferable on a league basis, but if you are going to apply a multiplier of 1.15 for strength of competition (or whatever # it is that you use), I think you have to then consider all the other factors like the strength of you own team. Hall played on incredibly stacked Windsor teams that included Ryan Ellis, Adam Henrique, Zack Kassian, Camp Fowler, Richard Panik. Their whole team was NHL drafted. Lafreniere doesn't play with 1 guy who is drafted to the NHL above the 6th round.

Windsor played a pretty defensive system, and a bunch of the guys you listed didn't play with Hall in his 2008-09 season (Panik, Kassian, and Fowler). Sometimes being on a stacked team leads to fewer minutes. Seguin for example, in his draft year played on a terrible Plymouth team with limited NHL talent and scored at a comparable rate to Taylor Hall. Both have scored at pretty much the same rate in the NHL.

 

[Hfbsux]

Windsor played a pretty defensive system, and a bunch of the guys you listed didn't play with Hall in his 2008-09 season (Panik, Kassian, and Fowler). Sometimes being on a stacked team leads to fewer minutes. Seguin for example, in his draft year played on a terrible Plymouth team with limited NHL talent and scored at a comparable rate to Taylor Hall. Both have scored at pretty much the same rate in the NHL.

Windsor had 311 goals scored in 68 games in 08-09. (Hall's D-1)
Rimouski has 260 goals in 64 games. (Lafreniere's D-1)

Windsor allowed 171 goals in 68 games.
Rimouski allowed 161 goals in 64 games.

By these stats it is pretty safe to say that both teams are playing a good defensive system. It is also safe to say that Windsor's offense was mile ahead of Rimouski's..

 

[93LEAFS]

Windsor had 311 goals scored in 68 games in 08-09. (Hall's D-1)
Rimouski has 260 goals in 64 games. (Lafreniere's D-1)

Windsor allowed 171 goals in 68 games.
Rimouski allowed 161 goals in 64 games.

By these stats it is pretty safe to say that both teams are playing a good defensive system. It is also safe to say that Windsor's offense was mile ahead of Rimouski's..

Except even if they are a better offensive team, you are expecting that the best player on said team's numbers are inflated due to this. I'm not sure this is correct premise. I'm not sure this applies to high-end talents in the CHL. I've never seen percentage of team points having a strong carryover effect when examined, as illustrated in the Seguin/Hall example. Elite players on weaker teams tend to get more ice-time and opportunity to score. Without the CHL providing accurate ice-time stats, its impossible to tell.

 

[Hfbsux]

Except even if they are a better offensive team, you are expecting that the best player on said team's numbers are inflated due to this. I'm not sure this is correct premise. I'm not sure this applies to high-end talents in the CHL. I've never seen percentage of team points having a strong carryover effect when examined, as illustrated in the Seguin/Hall example. Elite players on weaker teams tend to get more ice-time and opportunity to score. Without the CHL providing accurate ice-time stats, its impossible to tell.

More ice-time will help players to produce more, for sure. Better linemates will help a player produce more and more frequently. In this case we can confirm Hall had better teammates, but can't compare their ice-time. It would be interesting to get those ice-time stats by the CHL indeed.

 

[93LEAFS]

More ice-time will help players to produce more, for sure. Better linemates will help a player produce more and more frequently. In this case we can confirm Hall had better teammates, but can't compare their ice-time. It would be interesting to get those ice-time stats by the CHL indeed.

The thing is though, with those linemates, I'm not sure we've seen a massive carryover effect when we are looking at top 10 picks. I do think secondary players massively benefit, but when it comes to the cream of the crop players who drive their teams offence, I'm not sure the effect is that dramatic. Sometimes you see a Sam Gagner who really benefitted from having Kane on his line, but then you see someone like Debrincat get devalued in part due to his teammates (along with size and skating level for his size).

I've seen people try to use the percentage of team points heavily in arguments before, but I've yet to see a strong correlation proven when talking about top players. It reminds me of the early-birthday (Jan 1st - Sept 15th)/late-birthday effect (Sept 16th-Dec 31st) in the draft issue. Their is a co-relation that late-birthdays get overvalued in the draft, but for whatever reason, the historical divide in value for players picked in the same spot or pick range does not emerge in a significant way until about the 20th overall pick. The divide between top 5 picks is almost non-existent.

 

[Lebowski]

Best chl point producer since John Tavares?

There was that McDavid guy that wasn't half bad too.

Plenty of players, actually.

 

[Hfbsux]

The thing is though, with those linemates, I'm not sure we've seen a massive carryover effect when we are looking at top 10 picks. I do think secondary players massively benefit, but when it comes to the cream of the crop players who drive their teams offence, I'm not sure the effect is that dramatic. Sometimes you see a Sam Gagner who really benefitted from having Kane on his line, but then you see someone like Debrincat get devalued in part due to his teammates (along with size and skating level for his size).

I've seen people try to use the percentage of team points heavily in arguments before, but I've yet to see a strong correlation proven when talking about top players. It reminds me of the early-birthday (Jan 1st - Sept 15th)/late-birthday effect (Sept 16th-Dec 31st) in the draft issue. Their is a co-relation that late-birthdays get overvalued in the draft, but for whatever reason, the historical divide in value for players picked in the same spot or pick range does not emerge in a significant way until about the 20th overall pick. The divide between top 5 picks is almost non-existent.

Very interesting! Especially the early/late bday effect. That would be valuable information for professional scouting teams.

 

[ijuka]

You are correct in saying OHL is more transferable on a league basis, but if you are going to apply a multiplier of 1.15 for strength of competition (or whatever # it is that you use), I think you have to then consider all the other factors like the strength of you own team.

Meh, not really. That's a factor sometimes but for the top end, not really. It's more for players such as Sam Gagner getting propped up. "Making one's teammates better" is a thing and it's possible that a team's really good precisely because said player plays on it - You can hardly blame them for that.

Looking at NHLe for 18-19, the multiplier to be used is 1.184. So McDavid's u17 production would translate to QMJHL as 117 points in 56 games.

 

[Ctrain2k]

There was that McDavid guy that wasn't half bad too.

Plenty of players, actually.

I wasn’t really counting McDavid, cause that’s just a different animal.

 

[BondraTime]

I wasn’t really counting McDavid, cause that’s just a different animal.

Marner, Tkachuk, Strome, Debrincat, Huberdeau, Ehlers, Drouin etc

 

[Ctrain2k]

Marner, Tkachuk, Strome, Debrincat, Huberdeau, Ehlers, Drouin etc

I think he’s gonna pass those guys relatively easily, he still has his draft year left which is crazy to think about.

 

[BondraTime]

I think he’s gonna pass those guys relatively easily, he still has his draft year left which is crazy to think about.

Drouin had 105 points in 49 games and 35 points in 17 playoff games in his 17 year old season

 

[Ctrain2k]

Drouin had 105 points in 49 games and 35 points in 17 playoff games in his 17 year old season

He also was playing with MacKinnon and it was his draft year. It’s just crazy to think Lafreniere will probably have over 300 points before he’s even drafted.

 

[Mario le Magnifique]

He also was playing with MacKinnon and it was his draft year. It’s just crazy to think Lafreniere will probably have over 300 points before he’s even drafted.

That's crazy. Everytime I watch him play, I must remember that he is still so young and not even drafted, he is dominant and BIG out there.

 

[BondraTime]

He also was playing with MacKinnon and it was his draft year. It’s just crazy to think Lafreniere will probably have over 300 points before he’s even drafted.

It was his 2nd year in the Q, 17 year old season, just like Lafreniere, and MacKinnon had 75 points that year. He's 6 months older than Lafreniere. MaC was 1 month older.