Extended Matthews vs Stutzle going forward?

[WetcoastOrca]

It depends. Matthews extended at $12 million would make me take him.
But if Matthews comes in closer to $15 million which is what I think he will be at then I’d take Stutzle.

 

[Regal]

Stutzle is far above Matthews D+3 year. Progression isn’t linear but Stutzle os a safe bet to continue developing his skills

Based on what? Relative to the pack, they’re pretty similar with Stutzle slightly ahead (8th in goals per game, 21st in points per game for Matthews, 14th in goals per game, 15th in points per game for Stutzle), their adjusted stats per 82 are also similar with Stutzle slightly ahead (45G, 43A, 88 P for Matthews vs. 43 G, 49A, 94 P for Stutzle). Stutzle though has gotten considerably more PP time, because Babcock was splitting time between two units, and has had better regular 5v5 linemates (Tkachuk, Giroux and Batherson are his three most commmon, whereas Marleau, Kapanen and Johnson were Matthews’ most common linemates, with some of Nylander in too). You could make an argument that it’s been a bit better, and it could end better since he’s been hot recently, but it certainly hasn’t been far better as it stands, unless you ignore league scoring going up.

 

[Akrapovince]

Stutzle is far above Matthews D+3 year. Progression isn’t linear but Stutzle os a safe bet to continue developing his skills

Progression isn’t linear but although it may happen, I’m going to go bet against the fact that a player with top three selection pedigree is going to stop development at 21 while also putting up the best numbers of his career in only his third season.

 

[Masked]

Stutzle is far above Matthews D+3 year.

And that's not even the right comparison. Compare Matthews' 20 year old season i.e. 2017-8 to Stutzle's 20 year old season i.e. this season.

Assen na yo!

 

[AvroArrow]

The guy who's won 2 rockets, a Hart, Lindsay and scored 60 goals. Better players generally get paid more money, Matthews easily.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Matthews last signed at 14.5% of cap ceiling.

Lets say now he values his UFA years at 17% of cap ceiling. The Salary Cap when he is a free agent is projected to be 88M

Matthews contract should then look like 14.95MX8yrs

Stutzle will have 7 years left at 8.25M at that time.



for this Hypothetical lets say

Matthews averages 52G 48A 100pts for healthy years over 82 games

Stutzle is currently pacing over 82 games for 43G 55A 98pts . Lets just say he doesn't progress any further.

I save 6.6M in annual AAV by losing the extra 9 goals and 2 pts. This is also not accounting for Stu improving further which is very likely.

This is a very easy poll to answer.

 

[Regal]

And that's not even the right comparison. Compare Matthews' 20 year old season i.e. 2017-8 to Stutzle's 20 year old season i.e. this season.

Assen na yo!

Eh, Stutzle turned 21 halfway through the season. Not sure why that makes his season closer to the season Matthews turned 20 just before the season started than the one where Matthews turned 21 just before the season started, but was just as far removed from the draft.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Stutzle is far above Matthews D+3 year. Progression isn’t linear but Stutzle os a safe bet to continue developing his skills

This generation of young players is getting a tad overrated because of the scoring increase leaguewide.

A rookie Matthews finished 20th in scoring with 69 points. 20th in scoring while being nowhere near PPG! Its an entirely different scoring environment now.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Not defending our performance this year, but losing Norris and our 1A, 1B and sometimes both goaltenders for prolonged periods of the season really hurt. Injuries happen, I get it- but these aren’t losses that could have been expected or easily remedied.

Sounds like mental gymnastics but the benefits of adding Giroux and Cat was pretty much leveled out by not having another top six centre to play with them and rushing Greig/Pinto into a spot. (Or top six winger/player in general).

I get it, I was just addressing their specific points about "how far has scoring (Matthews) gotten the Leafs" and the "Stutzle plus a million dollar player would be better than AM", to show that specific persons argument is not all that strong.

I've got no love for the Sens but Stutzle is a hell of a player and I wish things had gone a bit better for the Sens because they look like they're almost a playoff team and I would love to see a Leafs/Sens playoff matchup again someday (granted maybe that's just nostalgia for a time when the Leafs could actually win a series).

 

[All Mod Cons]

Stutzle, Eichel, Laine, Barzal, Suzuki, Pettersson, Aho, Barkov, Huberdeau, Thompson. He's lost to them all.

He'd be lucky to be a top 50 player in the league.

 

[goldnblack]

I think it's hard to argue that Stutzle won't have the better career. By the end I think he'll be the obvious better player.

​

 

[inthewings]

The contracts make the difference here - it's not just a comparison of the players on the ice. All else bing equal, you take Matthews. But all else isn't equal. It's Stutzle @ 8.35 from 22-29 vs. Matthews at 13 (and probably closer to 14) from 27-34. That makes up a lot of gap in their current performance.

 

[93gilmour93]

Not one NHL GM in the league would take Stutzle over Matthews regardless of what the contract is. HF Boards on the other hand

Matthews is paid more because he’s worth more and clearly the better player

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Completely unedited summary of the player I picked:

Stutzle is awesome but Sens fans should stop trying to compare him to Matthews and should stop thinking about the Leafs. Is it really that big of a win if you get some votes over Matthews but once again miss the playoffs? Is the real end game winning a poll against the Leafs?

Much more interesting comparisons would be against his peers in his age group. Not many Hart or Rocket trophies amongst them.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I think it comes down to where your team is at and whether the 4 year age gap is enough to tilt the balance toward the younger Stutzle who obviously still has to reach Matthews level. For the Canucks I’d take Stutzle with the 4 extra years of peak play plus the cap savings as I expect Matthews to hold out for top dollar of at least $14 million. A team in a win now mode takes Matthews.

 

[34]

Lets wait until Stutzle wins multiple Rocket Richard trophies, score 50 goals in 50 games, puts up a 60 goal season, wins the HART….. the Ted Lindsay.

After all that, then post this poll up. Until then there is NO, absolutely nothing to compare. Just a bunch of insecurities in this thread.

 

[CornerStone61]

Lets wait until Stutzle wins multiple Rocket Richard trophies, score 50 goals in 50 games, puts up a 60 goal season, wins the HART….. the Ted Lindsay.

After all that, then post this poll up. Until then there is NO, absolutely nothing to compare. Just a bunch of insecurities in this thread.

The only insecurities in this thread are from Leafs fans though? It's not like we're comparing some bum to Matthews. Stutzle has 99 points in his last 82 games, so if that is something he can maintain going forward while being paid potentially 6m less per year I don't see how it's so insulting for fans to want Stutzle going forward

 

[keglu]

Not one NHL GM in the league would take Stutzle over Matthews regardless of what the contract is. HF Boards on the other hand

Matthews is paid more because he’s worth more and clearly the better player

But question is how much he needs to be better to justify 50% higher contract. Is 20% for example enough?

 

[Ducks in a row]

Stutzle is younger and would be signed for cheaper so would take him on the Ducks as he would grow with our young core.

 

[34]

The only insecurities in this thread are from Leafs fans though? It's not like we're comparing some bum to Matthews. Stutzle has 99 points in his last 82 games, so if that is something he can maintain going forward while being paid potentially 6m less per year I don't see how it's so insulting for fans to want Stutzle going forward

I mean, yeah you take him over Draisaitl for sure… but not the multiple Rocket winner Matthews.

No question Stutzle is a great young talent.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Matthews’ health is a real concern at this point, idk if the gap between them is big enough going forward to disregard that concern

 

[Atomos2]

How many rockets does it take to be better than Stutzle? 2? No
How many MVP trophies (Hart/Lindsay) does it take to be better than Stutzle? 2 trophies? No.
How many 60 goal seasons does it take to better than Stutzle? 1? Guess not.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you . Where we don't want better players, only younger potential and cheaper contracts.

 

[swiftwin]

I mean, yeah you take him over Draisaitl for sure… but not the multiple Rocket winner Matthews.

But the question is not "who's had the better career so far".

The question is who would you have going forward? It's a pretty hard comparison because there are tons of variables in play:

• Stutzle is extremely young and is performing better than Matthews was when he was 20, and is also performing slightly better than Matthews this season.
• Stutzle is much cheaper (by 4 to 5M per year).
• Stutzle is showing promise as a more complete 2-way player (kills penalties & closes out games).
• Matthews has by far a more proven track record (points and individual awards).

That last point is huge and counter-balances the other points Stutzle has going for him. But at the same time, past performance is not always an indicator of future performance. Do you consider Matthews' nagging wrist/hand issues as a positive in that it explains his poorer performance this season? Or is it a negative because it's a potential issue that may prevent him to achieving his full potential in upcoming seasons?

For Stutzle, I find it hard to believe he's just a flash in the pan like some Leafs fans are trying to paint him. The kid is 20/21 years old. Of all the active players in the NHL right now, only McDavid, Crosby and Ovechkin produced at a better pace than Stutzle is right now in their 20yr old (D+3) season. It's not like Stutzle is getting sheltered 2nd line minutes either. He's getting the hardest minutes with Pinto, a rookie, as the 2nd line center with Norris hurt. That's nothing to scoff at, and it's not hard to see Stutzle continuing to improve. Even over the course of this season alone, his shot had improved dramatically.

At the end of the day, I imagine it comes down to your team needs. Is your cup window closing in the next 2 seasons? Go Matthews. Otherwise? Stutzle is probably the better bet.

 

[swiftwin]

How many rockets does it take to be better than Stutzle? 2? No
How many MVP trophies (Hart/Lindsay) does it take to be better than Stutzle? 2 trophies? No.
How many 60 goal seasons does it take to better than Stutzle? 1? Guess not.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you . Where we don't want better players, only younger potential and cheaper contracts.

What Matthews did in the past is not as important as what he's going to do going forward. Will Matthews win another rocket? Will he win another MVP trophy? Will he score another 60 goal season?

Nobody is asking who has had the better career so far.

 

[Atomos2]

What Matthews did in the past is not as important as what he's going to do going forward. Will Matthews win another rocket? Will he win another MVP trophy? Will he score another 60 goal season?

Nobody is asking who has had the better career so far.

You're acting like he is a 35 year old Crosby. He literally received these accolades last year. Not even a full year has passed since then.