Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[Salsero1]

It's almost like you decided not to read the part where I said "In terms of geographical area, the Ducks didn't expand the NHL's footprint. In terms of population coverage, they absolutely did."

I'll add this too. Through the lens of population, the Ducks did more to expand the league's footprint than a Hamilton team would.

Inb4 "what good is a population if they don't like hockey?"

 

[edog37]

Why does everybody slam proximity of Buffalo,Toronto,Hamilton

Look at NYR,NYI,NJD.

Not to mention southern Ontario is the largest HOCKEY MARKET in the world.

They have the Leafs. That’s good enough.

 

[KevFu]

In a 36 team league with 6 divisions the schedule would be like this:

I don't see any reason to cram teams into boxes on a grid when we just don't have teams in locations that naturally group like that. You can just leave it as is, add a team to the Pacific, Central, Metro, Atlantic and you're fine.

Why does everybody slam proximity of Buffalo,Toronto,Hamilton

Look at NYR,NYI,NJD.

Not to mention southern Ontario is the largest HOCKEY MARKET in the world.

Pragmatism.

A Hamilton owner would have to come to a financial agreement with MLSE, which is probably never gonna happen.

The Rangers only accepted the Islanders because the alternative was getting zero dollars from a WHA team there instead. The Rangers and Islanders accepted the Devils because the league had just lost the Seals/Barons and it was a bad look to shrink again.

So you'd need some kind of situation where a legit owner with like $7 billion in Hamilton asking the league, AND MLSE needs league approval (i.e. when the sale of MLSE is pending and requires league approval -- much like MLB did to the Houston Astros) at the exact same time in order for the league to ram it down Toronto's throats.

 

[BMN]

There are several things that separate the NYI/NJD/NYR situation from TOR/HAM but two in particular:

1--- The circumstances that dictated the Islanders founding and Rockies' relocating (as laid out by @KevFu) were completely unique to the era. If not for the WHA, it's entirely possible the Isles aren't even founded (and the Rangers opposed the idea at first, at that). The Leafs were owned by Harold Ballard at the time and he had an entirely different way of dealing with the "spectre" of the WHA, which was to purposely make the Ottawa Nationals' move to the city as cumbersome as possible. If the Rangers' owners had been as cantankerous as Ballard and treated the Raiders/Golden Blades in the same manner, you probably never see the Islanders. And the Devils did in fact come with territorial fees to not just one but three teams (also the Flyers), which John McMullen either on accident or through savvy realized would be a bargain compared to what the future would bring.

Those circumstances will never re-present themselves. I think the 1970s or early 1980s would have been a great time for Hamilton or the GTA in general to get a 2nd team but Harold Ballard was too unpredictable and irascible for it to occur.

2--- The big thing with 2024 circumstances is that the Leafs aren't just hard to persuade because it's "their territory." They're hard to persuade because of all of the other sports interests they have in the city. Including minor league teams, they own seven pro teams in the area. They like having all of that (I'm convinced they'd hold a ticker tape parade if the Jays ever left, not that they're much of a threat in terms of interest right this second...). The profile of hockey in the GTA is right where they want it.....the last thing they'd want is a second NHL team taking attention away from the Raptors, etc.

 

[KevFu]

Yeah Hamilton is a money sink but Phoenix is not. Got it.

You're missing his point: The "money sink" isn't that a Hamilton team won't turn a profit; it's how long it takes for that annual profit to exceed the buy-in price.

Because every dollar Hamilton makes is a dollar the Leafs/Sabres don't get anymore, they're going to ask for amounts that are about equal to the value of the franchise.

So you'd need $2.8 billion to buy an expansion team in Hamilton from the league.
The Leafs need $2.8 Billion in territorial rights.
The Sabres need $2.0 billion in territorial rights (less than MLSE because the TV rights aren't an overlap due to the border).

So it's a $7.6 billion buy in to make Hamilton happen. (Assuming you get the arena for free!).

The Leafs made $127m in profit last season. If that's what Hamilton is profiting each season in 2023 dollars; the best case scenario for the first owner of Hamilton is that he earns $7.6 billion in annual profits from owning the team... in 59.84 years.

If you're the SECOND owner of Hamilton, or the first owner of a non-shared market, then you're making your money back in 22 years.

So everyone wants to be the SECOND owner of Hamilton and not the first; OR just own a team somewhere else.

 

[waitin425]

The NHL will run it back one more time with Atlanta and Pheonix.

Houston is a prime candidate.

Quebec City keeps pushing hard and I see a return of the Nordiques.

If Andlauer hadn't purchased Ottawa, I would have said the Hammer. He has the cash and pull to make that happen. But, the desire is probably not there now.

I would love to see another team in Western Canada. Saskatoon or Regina aren't big enough population centres. But.....Surrey is. Vancouver #2 could be a distant possibility in the far future.

Truthfully though.....32 is enough.

If the NHL wants to grow....consider NHL in Europe. 8 teams to start.

London, Paris, Munich, Prague, Moscow, St Petersburg, Stockholm, Helsinki

 

[WeaponOfChoice]

They have the Leafs. That’s good enough.

We don't want them. You can have em.


Pittsburgh has the Flyers and Caps close enough, that should be good enough, no?

 

[powerstuck]

They have the Leafs. That’s good enough.

Is it really enough tho ?

You have a market that fills close to 20000 hockeys fans every night, as has thousands more of hockey fans waiting to get in, meaning waiting to spend their money, not on any hockey, but on NHL hockey.

Sure teams don't have to have 20000 season tickets and 10000 waiting list, but having just 1000 isn't the greatest situation either.

If there is money to be spent, it will be spent. If folks can't spend it on NHL hockey, they will spend it on something else. Thus, Toronto is one of the areas where NHL is missing the opportunity to collect even more hockey related revenue.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

How did Anaheim expand the footprint of the NHL? It didn't. The league just wanted Disney more involved. Disney meanwhile was getting into the team ownership business.

As far as Hamilton not generting new fans goes, the problem with what you're saying is that you're ignoring that the Leafs are inaccessible to a lot of fans because of the costs. So there are people who would be going to Hamilton games who could never go to a Leafs games.

Agree, not that I think Anaheim should move, but they do not expand footprint of the league. Think is Ducks never existed fans in OC would have just rooted for Kings, like suburb fans do in every city.

 

[frontsfan67]

New York State has 19.68 million people there while New York City has 8.1million compared to Ontario with 16 million people here and toronto has a population of 6.4million.

Also Newark doesn’t seem like the biggest with only 303k people but they’re a very packed in state. 1263 people per square mile or 343 people per square kilometre. The state of New Jersey has an estimated 9.3million in the state too.

Not as comparable to Ontario really Ontario is a lot more spread out along the border then both New York and New Jersey. To get from Windsor Ontario all the way to Ottawa Ontario it’s over 7 hours and 753kms vs going from let’s say Buffalo New York to Newport New York it is only a little over 3 hours and 344kms.

 

[dj4aces]

If there is money to be spent, it will be spent. If folks can't spend it on NHL hockey, they will spend it on something else. Thus, Toronto is one of the areas where NHL is missing the opportunity to collect even more hockey related revenue.

But you're completely ignoring the fact that any hypothetical southeast Ontario franchise -- be it Hamilton or GTA -- will have to pay off at least Toronto, if not also paying off Buffalo. You're talking up exactly how valuable that market area is without considering exactly how much a hypothetical owner in that market would have to pay for access to that market area.

The pushback many have on that isn't because we don't think that market could support another team. It could support at least two more teams, really. But access to that market? Forget about it. A prospective billionaire owner for a HAM/GTA team would be fortunate if the dollar amount TOR ask for has only ten digits in it.

 

[Tawnos]

New York State has 19.68 million people there while New York City has 8.1million compared to Ontario with 16 million people here and toronto has a population of 6.4million.

Also Newark doesn’t seem like the biggest with only 303k people but they’re a very packed in state. 1263 people per square mile or 343 people per square kilometre. The state of New Jersey has an estimated 9.3million in the state too.

Not as comparable to Ontario really Ontario is a lot more spread out along the border then both New York and New Jersey. To get from Windsor Ontario all the way to Ottawa Ontario it’s over 7 hours and 753kms vs going from let’s say Buffalo New York to Newport New York it is only a little over 3 hours and 344kms.

City populations are meaningless. So are state/province populations. And the City of Toronto has 2.7 million people, not 6.4. Metro area population is the only thing that really matters, though.

The NYC metro, which encompasses both Newark and Elmont, has 19.5 million people. The Greater Toronto Hamilton Area has 7.1 million.

If you expand the view to include all of the Golden Horseshoe, you get a population of 9.7 million. But if you do the same to look at the NYC combined statistical area, you get 21.8 million.

The truth is that it really isn’t necessary for the NYC metro to have 3 teams and if you were designing a league from scratch, you’re putting 2.

 

[rojac]

Florida was the beginning of expansion in southern US markets, something that has continued since that time. There's no getting around that. Yeah, it very well could've been more about a play for big money owners, but that play resulted in some franchises coming dangerously close to failing. It illustrated to the league that perhaps accepting billionaires looking for tax write-offs wasn't the best approach.

As for stories on Anaheim or whatever other franchise, no one has to ask. I didn't even say to ask, making that a strange hill to climb. But I'd love to have been a fly on the wall at the league office.

Yes, the Florida franchise was a continuation of their move into that state, having added already added Tampa Bay, who had begun play just a few months before. But that 1993 expansion to Florida and Anaheim always seemed a little weird, with the announcement of the expansion teams coming just eight months before their training camps would begin. And unlike the process for the 1992 expansion, it did not feature an open call for applications,

 

[edog37]

We don't want them. You can have em.


Pittsburgh has the Flyers and Caps close enough, that should be good enough, no?

Other way around sport. They have the Pens, that’s more than good enough.

 

[edog37]

Is it really enough tho ?

You have a market that fills close to 20000 hockeys fans every night, as has thousands more of hockey fans waiting to get in, meaning waiting to spend their money, not on any hockey, but on NHL hockey.

Sure teams don't have to have 20000 season tickets and 10000 waiting list, but having just 1000 isn't the greatest situation either.

If there is money to be spent, it will be spent. If folks can't spend it on NHL hockey, they will spend it on something else. Thus, Toronto is one of the areas where NHL is missing the opportunity to collect even more hockey related revenue.

The Leafs always push out the possibility, so why argue the point. Honestly, I could care less if Canada ever gets more teams. The way some Canadian fans act towards other fan bases, they are getting their just desserts.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

We don't want them. You can have em.


Pittsburgh has the Flyers and Caps close enough, that should be good enough, no?

Uh, no?

What a ludicrous comparison. You know far away Pittsburgh is from either of those cities?

 

[WeaponOfChoice]

Uh, no?

What a ludicrous comparison. You know far away Pittsburgh is from either of those cities?

Now tell me again about the Sabres and how a Hamilton team will kill them

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Now tell me again about the Sabres and how a Hamilton team will kill them

I never said they will.

But Hamilton is far closer to Buffalo than Pittsburgh is to Philly.

 

[WeaponOfChoice]

I never said they will.

But Hamilton is far closer to Buffalo than Pittsburgh is to Philly.

I didn't mean to imply you did. It's just a sentiment I've seen pop up in discussions like this

 

[BKIslandersFan]

I didn't mean to imply you did. It's just a sentiment I've seen pop up in discussions like this

Yea, but at the same time it’s pretty much a fact that neither Leafs or Sabres want a team there.

 

[aqib]

You're missing his point: The "money sink" isn't that a Hamilton team won't turn a profit; it's how long it takes for that annual profit to exceed the buy-in price.

Because every dollar Hamilton makes is a dollar the Leafs/Sabres don't get anymore, they're going to ask for amounts that are about equal to the value of the franchise.

So you'd need $2.8 billion to buy an expansion team in Hamilton from the league.
The Leafs need $2.8 Billion in territorial rights.
The Sabres need $2.0 billion in territorial rights (less than MLSE because the TV rights aren't an overlap due to the border).

So it's a $7.6 billion buy in to make Hamilton happen. (Assuming you get the arena for free!).

The Leafs made $127m in profit last season. If that's what Hamilton is profiting each season in 2023 dollars; the best case scenario for the first owner of Hamilton is that he earns $7.6 billion in annual profits from owning the team... in 59.84 years.

If you're the SECOND owner of Hamilton, or the first owner of a non-shared market, then you're making your money back in 22 years.

So everyone wants to be the SECOND owner of Hamilton and not the first; OR just own a team somewhere else.

So a lot of this is ridiculous. No every dollar the Hamilton team makes isn't a dollar the Leafs and Sabres don't get anymore. If you think getting from Scottsdale to Glendale was too much for Coyotes fan imagine getting from Hamilton or points west to Scotiabank Arena or KeyBank Arena. Nevermind how difficult it is to actually get a ticket to the Leafs game and you have to clear border security to get to a Sabres game. Try doing that on a Tuesday night after work.

Secondly you just made all those numbers up. When the NHL has expanded the expansion fees are the same for each market in that round. Minnesota and Atlanta cost the exact same the fee for QC would have been the same as Vegas if that had been approved. So if Atlanta 3.0 is not paying $2.8B than neither is Hamilton. Yes Toronto and Buffalo will probably get big payoffs but not $4.8 billion between them. The Sabres aren't even worth $2 billion.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

So a lot of this is ridiculous. No every dollar the Hamilton team makes isn't a dollar the Leafs and Sabres don't get anymore. If you think getting from Scottsdale to Glendale was too much for Coyotes fan imagine getting from Hamilton or points west to Scotiabank Arena or KeyBank Arena. Nevermind how difficult it is to actually get a ticket to the Leafs game and you have to clear border security to get to a Sabres game. Try doing that on a Tuesday night after work.

True. But Sabres and Leafs think its enough to impact them apparently, allegedly.

But honestly, if league thought another team in Southeast Ontario would generate a lot of money for them, I still fail to see how 2 out of 32 ownership groups would be able to prevent league from putting another team there.
I think league don't have a faith that another team there would do them any good.

Secondly you just made all those numbers up. When the NHL has expanded the expansion fees are the same for each market in that round. Minnesota and Atlanta cost the exact same the fee for QC would have been the same as Vegas if that had been approved. So if Atlanta 3.0 is not paying $2.8B than neither is Hamilton. Yes Toronto and Buffalo will probably get big payoffs but not $4.8 billion between them. The Sabres aren't even worth $2 billion.

Agree, probably more like 750M altogether.

 

[aqib]

True. But Sabres and Leafs think its enough to impact them apparently, allegedly.

But honestly, if league thought another team in Southeast Ontario would generate a lot of money for them, I still fail to see how 2 out of 32 ownership groups would be able to prevent league from putting another team there.
I think league don't have a faith that another team there would do them any good.


Agree, probably more like 750M altogether.

Buffalo would probably be straight cash (which would be good for Pegula who is looking to sell a piece of the Bills to fund a new stadium). Toronto there would be a component of media rights like the Orioles-Nationals especially since Bell and Rogers own MLSE.

 

[KevFu]

So a lot of this is ridiculous. No every dollar the Hamilton team makes isn't a dollar the Leafs and Sabres don't get anymore. If you think getting from Scottsdale to Glendale was too much for Coyotes fan imagine getting from Hamilton or points west to Scotiabank Arena or KeyBank Arena. Nevermind how difficult it is to actually get a ticket to the Leafs game and you have to clear border security to get to a Sabres game. Try doing that on a Tuesday night after work.

Secondly you just made all those numbers up. When the NHL has expanded the expansion fees are the same for each market in that round. Minnesota and Atlanta cost the exact same the fee for QC would have been the same as Vegas if that had been approved. So if Atlanta 3.0 is not paying $2.8B than neither is Hamilton. Yes Toronto and Buffalo will probably get big payoffs but not $4.8 billion between them. The Sabres aren't even worth $2 billion.

#1 - I agree with that "every dollar you get is one we don't get anymore" is NOT reality, but it IS the asking price/point of view of the teams who hold territorial rights. It's opportunity lost for those teams. It doesn't matter that they really aren't getting those fan dollars now, it's that they for sure never will if there's a team in Hamilton, so that's what they want to be compensated on.

#2 - Those numbers are "made up" as (a) an example to show the 2.5 to 3x multiplier for first and second owner, which was the real point.

The second piece of that is the NHL isn't going to open that can of worms unless it's a huge payday for them. Be pragmatic: the details and methodology of my post aren't important at all; the principle is why Hamilton is always a long-shot to ever get a team.

Everyone once in a while, someone will mention that New York should have a third baseball team -- or specifically New Jersey should have a MLB team -- instead of someone like Utah or Vegas getting a team. But it's instantly dismissed as impossible because 98% of baseball fans know the Yankees, Mets and Phillies would never go along with it. (FYI - The Mets exist over the Yankees' objections because the AL/NL had bicameral rules that allowed the AL to vote 7-1 to allow the Mets if the NL voted 7-1 to allow the Angels; those rules are gone now).

But with Hamilton, we have huge arguments because there's some kind of narrative that it's nationalistic reasons and not just pure capitalism reasons.

 

[KevFu]

Buffalo would probably be straight cash (which would be good for Pegula who is looking to sell a piece of the Bills to fund a new stadium). Toronto there would be a component of media rights like the Orioles-Nationals especially since Bell and Rogers own MLSE.

Yeah, that's the real path: media rights.

I also think Hamilton's best way in would be if there has to be a Bell/Rogers divorce in the future, because (a) a second Toronto team and territorial rights can be used as phantom dollars to negotiate one side walking away (with Rogers/Bell having matching TV deals with both franchises) and (b) the NHL can force terms on the approval of the sale, such as "cede the Hamilton territory" and Hamilton's TV deal will be matching TML/TOR2. That kind of thing.