Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[Melrose Munch]

Honestly... even if *this board* is rushing to re-enter the Phoenix market, it all depends on whether infrastructure is built (or in progress, at the very least) and an owner is available. Phoenix will almost certainly come after Houston and Atlanta, unless the league themselves hold back.

I think the league needs to try something else. Earth has been salted

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Nobody’s rushing anything. The 5-year clause that Meruelo got to get back in automatically (after he paid the money back) was a bone thrown to the market and an incentive on him getting the job done if he was interested. “If” being the key word, and he clearly wasn’t given that he bounced at basically the first chance possible.

The NHL’s line of priority is, and has always been throughout this recent process dating back to Vegas, “who can write them the biggest check?”

Pick a major market, any major market. If someone from there writes a billion+ dollar check to the NHL, they’re the new priority.

I’m sure that Bettman would like to see the Yotes revived, but he would like a billion freaking dollars a billion times more.

 

[bleedblue94]

Realistically it's:
Houston
Atlanta
Arizona

And then one of Portland, San Diego, of GTA 2.0

 

[PCSPounder]

San Diego… no owner and the owner of another team wants to build an arena. Paying rent in San Diego is way more foolish than paying rent in Los Angeles.

Atlanta… there’s an effort.

Houston… someone does not become a “potential owner” by continuing to attempt to talk down the expansion fee or purchase price.

Arizona… going to need 10 years to recover from the chaos.

Any other markets Gary Bettman mentioned should not be counted until we hear from potential owners rather than arena managers. Mentioning Kansas City spiced that lie a bit.

That doesn’t mean we won’t talk about it, and that doesn’t mean Gary Bettman won’t try to invoke the names of other markets when someone in the ownership cartel wants a new arena. But mark my words… expansion is off. Maybe in 10 years, we’ll come back to this Atlanta deal WHEN two more markets have the components to cause the necessary bidding war. Right now, those conditions do not exist.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

If they don’t make it, they don’t make it,
It doesn’t work for Canadian teams, and even worse for fans.

Any Canadian NHL fan who is fine with postseasons void of Canadian teams is not really an NHL fan at all.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

But would any true Scotsman be okay with that?

 

[Takuto Maruki]

Any Canadian NHL fan who is fine with postseasons void of Canadian teams is not really an NHL fan at all.

Tell that to this fan of an American team, living in Canada, who could give less of a damn about a Canadian team getting in, or ultimately winning it all.

 

[WaW]

32 is too many. 36 is nauseating.

 

[dj4aces]

32 is too many. 36 is nauseating.

Sounds like I need to invest in Clorox, because someone's gonna be buying a lot of Glad trash bags.

 

[garbageteam]

Realistically it's:
Houston
Atlanta
Arizona

And then one of Portland, San Diego, of GTA 2.0

might be fighting for tiny, leftover breadcrumbs here but I continue to think GTA 2.0 has a significantly lower chance than QC. I'm just not buying it being possible/viable, their odds are practically zero due to all the serious challenges. Even Hamilton's got a bigger shot. Quebec remains the likeliest for an 8th Canadian team. I still think they've got a chance even though everyone's written them off.

I think Atlanta is going to be next regardless of whether they have an expansion partner or not.

 

[KevFu]

I remain curious if perhaps the ownership of the Padres could be talked into something. The Padres are a third socal team, going strong, not exactly setting the world on fire but a healthy, stable franchise that's holding its own in a pretty tough division.

Well, the Padres owner just died.

The thing about the Padres is that they are the PERFECT example of what we talk about with "market saturation" for teams.

San Diego had the Padres and the Chargers. The Chargers left for LA. The Padres revenues skyrocketed. Because Chargers STH now bought more Padres tickets, and single-game, it's only the Padres.

But also corporate dollars: The advertisers, there's less total sports ad space in San Diego, so the Padres not only got more people wanting to advertise, but the demand allowed them to raise prices for limited quantities.

It was a slight increase in attendance, but a massive increase in revenues. The Padres stopped being "a small market team" and signed Machado, Tatis, traded for Soto and signed Bogaerts. That was four guys making the $300m contract money per season. (Sure, they traded Soto, but they've got the other three).


That being said, I don't think that the Padres finances are going to revert back to small market with a second team rejoining, because the Padres will be #1 to an NHL team instead of #2 to an NHL team. And the NHL will be fine because NHL teams require about a third of revenue NFL teams require. It's more that it's just fascinating to view and take lessons from.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Atlanta
Houston
Back to Phoenix
Kansas City

 

[KevFu]

There should be no rush to go back into Phoenix

This Board. Atlanta and Houston are more of a priority at the moment.

I mean, you're right there's no rush. But like, the normal flow of expansion is a ridiculously slow process. We were talking about the NHL's expansion to 32 because everyone knew it was absolutely happening, totally imminent and the NHL was moving on it SOON..... and then 10 years later, Seattle took the ice for the first time.

In baseball, Manfred has been giddy to expand (and probably ruin baseball in the process) and everyone has known he's gung-ho for expansion and has been since 2016. And at this point, the intention is to announce their expansion in 2029 and have them start playing in 2031.

So when we talk about the NHL going to 36 teams, we're talking about knowing who those cities are and teams awarded within 20 years. Not like, by the start of 2026.

 

[aqib]

In a 36 team league with 6 divisions the schedule would be like this:
2 games against every team outside your division- 60 games
4 games against every team in your division - 20 games
2 other games - I would say a home and home against your designated rival (Calgary-Edmonton, Rangers-Islanders, etc.)

Lets think about this:
A 42 team league. No divisions. No conferences. Do it Premier League style. Home and home against everyone. Then you have the top 16 teams in the playoffs. Maybe a play-in for the bottom 4-6 spots.

 

[CTHabsfan]

Lets think about this:
A 42 team league. No divisions. No conferences. Do it Premier League style. Home and home against everyone. Then you have the top 16 teams in the playoffs. Maybe a play-in for the bottom 4-6 spots.

Rivalries have already become scarce, this format eliminates rivalries. The Canadiens playing the Bruins or Maple Leafs would be no different than the Habs playing the Ducks or Kraken.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

That doesn’t mean we won’t talk about it, and that doesn’t mean Gary Bettman won’t try to invoke the names of other markets when someone in the ownership cartel wants a new arena. But mark my words… expansion is off. Maybe in 10 years, we’ll come back to this Atlanta deal WHEN two more markets have the components to cause the necessary bidding war. Right now, those conditions do not exist.

I expect Atlanta to be used like the NFL used Los Angeles for almost 20 years: as a club to swing for when a city does not want to build an arena or the fans of a franchise "step out of line."

A lot of people misread the Meruelo 5-year window as a statement of intent that the league was going to expand in that time frame. In reality, it was like telling your 16-year old that if he brings home straight A's, you'll buy him a car.......when he has never brought home an A in his life. The only difference is that if Meruelo had pulled it off the league got back into a market that they bent over backwards to make work.

I am also not convinced that whenever their next expansion comes, it is to 36. It may well be 34. It depends on what viable markets are there with ownership that can write the $1B+ check.

One more thing. The economy is shaky enough that a lot of people with a lot of money are holding onto that money. Warren Buffett/Berkshire have been busy converting stock holdings into cash for a reason. Finding billionaires who want to buck that trend right now and write a check for $1B is going to be tougher than a lot of people give it credit for.

 

[aqib]

I expect Atlanta to be used like the NFL used Los Angeles for almost 20 years: as a club to swing for when a city does not want to build an arena or the fans of a franchise "step out of line."

A lot of people misread the Meruelo 5-year window as a statement of intent that the league was going to expand in that time frame. In reality, it was like telling your 16-year old that if he brings home straight A's, you'll buy him a car.......when he has never brought home an A in his life. The only difference is that if Meruelo had pulled it off the league got back into a market that they bent over backwards to make work.

I am also not convinced that whenever their next expansion comes, it is to 36. It may well be 34. It depends on what viable markets are there with ownership that can write the $1B+ check.

One more thing. The economy is shaky enough that a lot of people with a lot of money are holding onto that money. Warren Buffett/Berkshire have been busy converting stock holdings into cash for a reason. Finding billionaires who want to buck that trend right now and write a check for $1B is going to be tougher than a lot of people give it credit for.

The people who would be buying an NHL franchise aren't going to be phased by a recession. You don't make a multi-billion dollar decision based the next year or two. Its a multi-decade decision.

With Calgary having broken ground, Ottawa is the only team seeking a new arena, but they have new owners so they aren't going anywhere. So expansion isn't far off. I think 36 is the goal. Even if they are staggered out over 6-10 years. Atlanta is seemingly a lock. Houston should be if Fertitta can come to an agreement with the league. The timing and locations of the other 2 is the only question.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

I expect Atlanta to be used like the NFL used Los Angeles for almost 20 years: as a club to swing for when a city does not want to build an arena or the fans of a franchise "step out of line."

Ha....Atlanta's team will come with a brand-new arena and development. So this weird theory is wrong.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Ha....Atlanta's team will come with a brand-new arena and development. So this weird theory is wrong.

Isn’t that dependant on getting a team awarded.

 

[dj4aces]

Ha....Atlanta's team will come with a brand-new arena and development. So this weird theory is wrong.

If I read him right, I believe his theory is that Atlanta would be a threat other team owners would throw out there in an effort to get a new building in their own cities, kinda like how KC was used as a threat by a couple franchises back in the 2000s.

It's still a weird hypothesis.

Isn’t that dependant on getting a team awarded.

Forsyth County did vote to approve $225m (roughly 12% of the proposed total cost of construction) back in March, which is indeed contingent on the league awarding a franchise.

There's also the Anson Carter/Alpharetta Sports and Entertainment proposal a few miles south of the proposed site of The Gathering. New York Life owns the proposed site, and we're supposedly going to find something out about that this fall. To my knowledge, NYL could redevelop this site if they so choose, regardless of whether a franchise is awarded. There's other questions about the site, but I think those were covered in the Atlanta thread

On top of that, according to Daly, there's allegedly several other groups in the city with varying levels of interest and financial wherewithal that there's no public knowledge of. If those groups do indeed exist, they could all have their own arena plans.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

If I read him right, I believe his theory is that Atlanta would be a threat other team owners would throw out there in an effort to get a new building in their own cities, kinda like how KC was used as a threat by a couple franchises back in the 2000s.

It's still a weird hypothesis.

You read it right.

Atlanta will eventually get a team, and they very well may be the next expansion team. But, with the NHL and Houston far apart on numbers and no apparent momentum to get closer, Phoenix basically dead in the water for now, and every other potential market having holes and "if's" attached to it, Atlanta will be a threat. I don't see the league expanding to 33 teams without a short-term plan to add #34, and I don't see them going out on any limbs to award #34.

The threat is even bigger if there is an arena either waiting, underway, or approved and just waiting for a tenant to start construction since the "or else" part of the threat can be implemented pretty quickly.

For a professional sports league or team owner, having one or two strong markets asking for teams is a powerful weapon. From their perspective, it's a lot better to have more demand than supply, rather than looking like you have more supply than demand (the Coyotes situation prior to the move).

Atlanta is also a bigger caliber weapon for that purpose than KC was, or QC has been.

 

[voyageur]

I mean, like I said.. it’s a vital part of the story. I just don’t find it interesting because it’s a dead end discussion. “Is there an owner? No one yet? They aren’t getting a team.” How boring of a position for a message board.

SLC was often a name that came up in expansion discussions around here. It usually got dismissed because of the Jazz and misunderstandings about the size of the market. I clearly remember saying that it would’ve been a perfect market for the NHL if there weren’t an NBA team. Though I hadn’t thought of the winter sports as an X factor until Smith came around and mentioned it.

Prospective owners might not care about growth potential, but the league does. They’re not putting a team any place just because an owner comes forward with an expansion fee.

I guarantee that discussions were had with Fertitta about relocating the Coyotes there...He probably tried to lowball, and hold court...The NHL doesn't need bargain basement owners, especially in the Southern markets, where it takes some work to build and keep a fanbase. The Smiths showed interest, got their meetings with the important people, and there it is it, Utah...It's the dollars that probably moved the needle. Every owner wants their franchise to increase in value, and Arizona was taking more dollars than they were making. Making them on paper a $1 billion franchise was something that I don't think a lot of people foresaw.

With Seattle and Vegas doing well financially, Covid over and the Coyotes saga starting a new chapter,, the NHL can finally start to grow the business in a direction it wants. New rinks for Calgary and Ottawa seem to be part of their sustainability. If Winnipeg is the worst fire to put out, there is a billionaire owner behind the scenes, so there isn't a lot of panic.

Atlanta will almost certainly come back. Sounds like municipality needs assurance to endorse any arena project, so they don't get caught in a QC situation, of putting the cart before the horse. -Atlanta has too much corporate potential to be overlooked. Whether that be expansion or relocation I guess time will tell. I would think it is minimum $750 million now to join the club.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

You read it right. .

Oh, my bad. Sorry I read that wrong. Yeah, as long as the NHL wants expansion and there’s an owner willing to pay the fee, I don’t think they’re going to use any city as an “emergency” for a later time.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

Oh, my bad. Sorry I read that wrong. Yeah, as long as the NHL wants expansion and there’s an owner willing to pay the fee, I don’t think they’re going to use any city as an “emergency” for a later time.

No worries. These conversations are much better conducted in a bar, over a few beers, with a hockey game on at least one of the tubes.

 

[dj4aces]

You read it right.

Atlanta will eventually get a team, and they very well may be the next expansion team. But, with the NHL and Houston far apart on numbers and no apparent momentum to get closer, Phoenix basically dead in the water for now, and every other potential market having holes and "if's" attached to it, Atlanta will be a threat. I don't see the league expanding to 33 teams without a short-term plan to add #34, and I don't see them going out on any limbs to award #34.

The threat is even bigger if there is an arena either waiting, underway, or approved and just waiting for a tenant to start construction since the "or else" part of the threat can be implemented pretty quickly.

For a professional sports league or team owner, having one or two strong markets asking for teams is a powerful weapon. From their perspective, it's a lot better to have more demand than supply, rather than looking like you have more supply than demand (the Coyotes situation prior to the move).

Atlanta is also a bigger caliber weapon for that purpose than KC was, or QC has been.

I mean... I suppose Houston could be tied to Atlanta in this way, but I also don't believe the league is going to wait around forever -- and hold up a market with willing owners -- all because Fertitta is trying to low-ball the NHL on franchise values. He and whoever wins out in Atlanta aren't necessarily riding in the same car. While the league may prefer to announce two teams at once, they can just as easily only announce Atlanta. Who knows, that might be all it takes for Fertitta to shit or get off the pot.

But where the hypothesis falls apart is this idea that the league would be amenable to franchises using Atlanta as a relocation threat to strongarm their current markets for a new barn. The NHL is far smaller than the NFL, and they can ill-afford to drag a top-10 market that wants the NHL (and has buyers willing to pay) on for 20 more years.