Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[KevFu]

Adding more players to the NHL dilutes the product. Players who would have been in the AHL become NHL players, players who would have been in the ECHL are now in the AHL, and so on.

Eh, not really. (Again, using EA Sports rankings system here), it would lower the "average" certainly. But the worst guy in the league now is gonna be a 70 overall, and for every 70 on an NHL roster, there's six more in the AHL who could do the exact same thing if they're called up.

I don't know the 4th line call-ups for anyone else, but there's really no difference between Hudson Fasching, Kyle McLean and Julian Gauthier. They're 26-28 year old depth.

It's the concept of "Replacement Level Player." They're called that because basically any replacement level player is gonna be about the same.

Montreal 2 makes more sense than Toronto 2 imo. GTA has the raptors and Blue Jays in addition to the Leafs. Bring back the Montreal Maroons I say.

I'd disagree based on the financial reality of what's taken place in Ottawa over the last 30 years.

Most of Ottawa was Habs fans prior to the Senators. The Senators joined the league, had he fiasco of the expansion draft ("Ottawa apologizes"), were pretty terrible at first and that coincided with the Habs winning the Cup in 1993. What do you think the fan breakdown of Ottawa is, Habs vs Sens?

If a sizeable percentage of people in Ottawa didn't flip from the Habs to Sens when they got their own team, I can't imagine a high percentage of Habs fans in Montreal would flip.

ANY second team (any team really) is going to face the problem of "how many fans you can flip" from their existing fandom.

Between the size difference -- each 1% of fans you flip is just more people in Toronto than Montreal. That alone is the reason.

And I think the Frustration Factor of Toronto, you're just going to get more new team fans in Toronto than Montreal. A second team competing with the Habs is like "We put this team to compete with the Yankees" while a second team in Toronto is more like competing against the Mets. The fans are die hard and loyal, but they're also frustrated and have a "Why do I root for this team?" vibe.

(I'm a Mets fan. The Mets released an announcement on having Pride Night, and the first reply was "I don't know how you can flaunt such a deviant and sinful lifestyle to children, you should be arrested for promoting Mets fandom!" Which was a brilliant joke).

I just think you'll get more people in Toronto to flip than Montreal fans to flip.

ALSO, if you have $4b to spend on a Montreal sports franchise, you can get an MLB team and stadium; or an NBA team to play in the hockey arena and those teams would have ALL of Montreal being fans compared to 30 to 40% max of the market. It's just not a smart business decision by a potential Montreal owner.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Well... first, can you source that? Not that I don't believe it (let's face it -- baseball is slower than paint drying), while even a 1-0 win by virtue of penalty kicks in soccer involves movement of some sort up and down the field, so soccer is a bit more entertaining than baseball in that way.

Second, your chart. Can you source that as well? Again, not saying I don't believe it, I'd just like to know where data comes from, how it was collected, etc. It does look like a chart that's a little aged though. I'll be 44 this month, and by most metrics, I'm considered Gen X, but just barely. Meanwhile, those who were born at the beginning of the Gen X era are 60 today.

Hockey emerges as Canadians’ favourite sport to watch, and the generational responses pose interesting insights for the popularity of Canada’s national sport. - Narrative Research

April 3, 2024 In our latest national survey, we provided … Continue reading "Hockey emerges as Canadians’ favourite sport to watch, and the generational responses pose interesting insights for the popularity of Canada’s national sport."

narrativeresearch.ca

 

[Golden_Jet]

The larger the league is, the less it can be watered down by expansion. I’ve made this same point somewhere before. I think concerns about watering things down at this stage are overblown.

The 1967 6-team expansion increased the league roster by 100% at an average of 16.7% per team.

The 1970-74 6-team expansion increased the league roster by 50% at an average of 8.3% per team.

The 1979 4-team WHA merger increased the league roster by 23.5% at an average of 5.8% per team.

The 1991-93 5-team expansion increased the league roster by 23.8% at an average of 4.8% per team.

The 1997-99 4-team expansion increased the league roster by 15.3% at an average of 3.8% per team.

Vegas increased the league roster by 3.3%.

Seattle increase the league roster by 3.2%.

A 4-team expansion to 36 would increase the league roster by 12.5% at an average of 3.1% per team.

If you take something that’s 100% alcohol and make it 87.5%, the burn is still going to be extremely intense.

There’s a saturation point, and it’s been exceeded already. Not interested in keep watering it down.

 

[dj4aces]

Montreal 2 makes more sense than Toronto 2 imo. GTA has the raptors and Blue Jays in addition to the Leafs. Bring back the Montreal Maroons I say.

I think the days of a second, third, or more team added to a market are long since passed. The high barriers of entry into that market will scare away all except the wealthiest and most foolish of prospective owners. In this case, the Habs would ask for Fort Knox before they allow anyone entry into their market. The best bet for an eighth Canadian franchise is probably Quebec City, and by my count, there doesn't seem to be any nibbles on that big worm-filled hook PKP keeps fishing with.

It's going to be pretty difficult for a GM to build up a losing team when someone drafted 96th overall is a 2nd-round pick.

Depends on the quality of talent, doesn't it? If you're looking at what passes for a 96th overall draft pick today, yeah, it definitely appears more challenging. That doesn't mean the quality of player selected 96th overall in 50 years won't be far more skilled than a player selected at that spot today.

Like I said, short term, a jump from 32 to 36 will absolutely affect the talent pool. Long term, not so much. Those kids in juniors, the USHL, or other development leagues in other regions of the world will up their game and push harder to be a better player. The kid who gets drafted 70th, 80th or later today will not be the same kid who gets selected that late in the future. That doesn't mean there won't be swings-and-misses then either, but it does mean this idea that the talent pool is only a finite resource that can never be replenished is way off base.

 

[SImpelton]

San Diego is a huge untapped market that has no major professional winter sports team right now. The fact that the Chargers are gone, the NBA is not there, means that this could be a massive success if only for a sheer lack of competition

Ignoring SD is literally leaving money on the ground.

 

[dj4aces]

San Diego is roughly 100 miles from each of Anaheim and Los Angeles. I imagine both of those teams would argue for indemnification to be paid to them, and that would nuke from orbit any attempt to bring the NHL there.

While 50 miles is the rule, remember that the Rockies , in addition to paying the Rangers and Islanders, also had to pay the Flyers when they moved to New Jersey and became the Devils, which is a city whose limits are more than 50 miles away from Newark's city limits.

Could it work in SD? I'm sure the answer is yes. But I think they're a little too close to existing markets, and they'd run into similar issues that a TOR2, Hamilton, or GTA team would, in that any prospective owner will have to pay big money to 1-2 other franchises before they even get started.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

It's time to abandon the current conference/division alignment, as I have proposed expansion to 40 teams aligned as such (expansion teams marked with *):

Central: Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Indianapolis*, Kansas City*, Milwaukee*, Minnesota, St. Louis

East: Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington

North: Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec*, Toronto, Vancouver, Winnipeg

South: Atlanta*, Carolina, Dallas, Florida, Houston*, Nashville, New Orleans*, Tampa Bay

West: Anaheim, Arizona*, Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose, Seattle, Utah, Vegas

(note: I have proposed the new Arizona franchise inherit the history of the Coyotes from 1996 to 2024, with the Jets 1.0 history, including WHA years, being transferred to Jets 2.0)

The regular season schedule format would see each team play 50 division games, 7 against 6 opponents and 8 against the other one. Division matchups that get played 8 times would rotate every year. All non-division games get played once, alternating home ice every year.

For the playoffs, the top four teams in each division qualify. The American teams would stage their playoffs until each division has crowned a playoff champion. At that point the North Division starts their playoffs to determine one bid in the Stanley Cup Finals, while the remaining American teams are re-seeded and play for the other spot in the Stanley Cup Finals.

This would not only guarantee a Canadian team a spot in the Finals, but avoid a situation like 2016 where no Canadian team qualified.

Quite frankly, after over 30 years without a Canadian Cup winner, Canadian media companies should demand the implementation of this if the NHL wants to continue to have a national TV presence in the nation (regional broadcasts would be unaffected). Keep in mind that when the NHL was founded in 1917, there were only Canadian teams, and thus at least one participant in the Cup Finals every year (back when it was a multi-league competition) was guaranteed to be from Canada. And I think Bell, the CBC, Corus, and Rogers will be very good at playing hardball with the NHL when the time comes.

 

[Salsero1]

It's time to abandon the current conference/division alignment, as I have proposed expansion to 40 teams aligned as such (expansion teams marked with *):

Central: Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Indianapolis*, Kansas City*, Milwaukee*, Minnesota, St. Louis

East: Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington

North: Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec*, Toronto, Vancouver, Winnipeg

South: Atlanta*, Carolina, Dallas, Florida, Houston*, Nashville, New Orleans*, Tampa Bay

West: Anaheim, Arizona*, Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose, Seattle, Utah, Vegas

(note: I have proposed the new Arizona franchise inherit the history of the Coyotes from 1996 to 2024, with the Jets 1.0 history, including WHA years, being transferred to Jets 2.0)

The regular season schedule format would see each team play 50 division games, 7 against 6 opponents and 8 against the other one. Division matchups that get played 8 times would rotate every year. All non-division games get played once, alternating home ice every year.

For the playoffs, the top four teams in each division qualify. The American teams would stage their playoffs until each division has crowned a playoff champion. At that point the North Division starts their playoffs to determine one bid in the Stanley Cup Finals, while the remaining American teams are re-seeded and play for the other spot in the Stanley Cup Finals.

This would not only guarantee a Canadian team a spot in the Finals, but avoid a situation like 2016 where no Canadian team qualified.

Quite frankly, after over 30 years without a Canadian Cup winner, Canadian media companies should demand the implementation of this if the NHL wants to continue to have a national TV presence in the nation (regional broadcasts would be unaffected). Keep in mind that when the NHL was founded in 1917, there were only Canadian teams, and thus at least one participant in the Cup Finals every year (back when it was a multi-league competition) was guaranteed to be from Canada. And I think Bell, the CBC, Corus, and Rogers will be very good at playing hardball with the NHL when the time comes.

Or maybe the Canadian teams should just play better? Why would anyone want a ton of 4pm/10pm divisional games?

Again the Canadian teams aren't special, nor do they warrant any special treatment or a punch card to the finals.

 

[Takuto Maruki]

Again the Canadian teams aren't special, nor do they warrant any special treatment or a punch card to the finals.

I like how people who flog the North Division as a Serious Idea completely forget that people got *real* sick of seeing other teams in the circumstances that the North division was birthed from, and chances are they'd be equally as sick and tired of seeing them if they had to play them 6 times a year *each* for the incredibly nebulous reasoning of soothing wounded nationalist egos. MTL/OTT/TOR especially would raise massive grievances, having to have any non-HNIC game in Vancouver start at 9:30/10:30 EST.

Because yeah, that's all this shit is. Trying to lick nationalist wounds, and trying to dance around the fact that simply being north of the 46th parallel doesn't stop you from using the exact same resources that all other 25 teams south of the parallel to make a better roster, and more importantly, win.

 

[SirQuacksALot]

San Diego is roughly 100 miles from each of Anaheim and Los Angeles. I imagine both of those teams would argue for indemnification to be paid to them, and that would nuke from orbit any attempt to bring the NHL there.

While 50 miles is the rule, remember that the Rockies , in addition to paying the Rangers and Islanders, also had to pay the Flyers when they moved to New Jersey and became the Devils, which is a city whose limits are more than 50 miles away from Newark's city limits.

Could it work in SD? I'm sure the answer is yes. But I think they're a little too close to existing markets, and they'd run into similar issues that a TOR2, Hamilton, or GTA team would, in that any prospective owner will have to pay big money to 1-2 other franchises before they even get started.

I don’t think San Diego would work. SoCal has 2 NHL teams (debatable) and 3 AHL teams. I think the market has all it’ll support. If California gets a fourth NHL team, and I’m not sure we would it would have to be in Northern California. The Bay Area would be an issue because of the Sharks so that leaves Sacramento as the likeliest option for California, and I don’t see any appetite for it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It's time to abandon the current conference/division alignment, as I have proposed expansion to 40 teams aligned as such (expansion teams marked with *):

Central: Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Indianapolis*, Kansas City*, Milwaukee*, Minnesota, St. Louis

East: Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington

North: Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec*, Toronto, Vancouver, Winnipeg

South: Atlanta*, Carolina, Dallas, Florida, Houston*, Nashville, New Orleans*, Tampa Bay

West: Anaheim, Arizona*, Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose, Seattle, Utah, Vegas

(note: I have proposed the new Arizona franchise inherit the history of the Coyotes from 1996 to 2024, with the Jets 1.0 history, including WHA years, being transferred to Jets 2.0)

The regular season schedule format would see each team play 50 division games, 7 against 6 opponents and 8 against the other one. Division matchups that get played 8 times would rotate every year. All non-division games get played once, alternating home ice every year.

For the playoffs, the top four teams in each division qualify. The American teams would stage their playoffs until each division has crowned a playoff champion. At that point the North Division starts their playoffs to determine one bid in the Stanley Cup Finals, while the remaining American teams are re-seeded and play for the other spot in the Stanley Cup Finals.

This would not only guarantee a Canadian team a spot in the Finals, but avoid a situation like 2016 where no Canadian team qualified.

Quite frankly, after over 30 years without a Canadian Cup winner, Canadian media companies should demand the implementation of this if the NHL wants to continue to have a national TV presence in the nation (regional broadcasts would be unaffected). Keep in mind that when the NHL was founded in 1917, there were only Canadian teams, and thus at least one participant in the Cup Finals every year (back when it was a multi-league competition) was guaranteed to be from Canada. And I think Bell, the CBC, Corus, and Rogers will be very good at playing hardball with the NHL when the time comes.

Nope, that would be a terrible idea,
There no chance division Canada wants to play in one division in 3 time zones.

Does anyone think Boston, Rangers, or some other east team would want to play with teams in the Pacific division.

During the Covid season, was fine to get hockey again, but it soon became awful, with so many late games.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Nope, that would be a terrible idea,
There no chance division Canada wants to play in one division in 3 time zones.

Does anyone think Boston, Rangers, or some other east team would want to play with teams in the Pacific division.

During the Covid season, was fine to get hockey again, but it soon became awful, with so many late games.

2 counter-arguments:

1. There are several college conferences in the US that currently span three time zones, and two more will start spanning from coast-to-coast on August 2.

2. Doing my alignment will create a healthy inventory of games between two Canadian teams, which tend to rate higher on national TV in Canada than games that involve at least one American team.

 

[SImpelton]

Adding more players to the NHL dilutes the product.

No it doesn't. Or if it does, it's only a short term problem.

yes the initial farm system is designed to accommodate X number of teams but the big thing you're forgetting is that each new squad adds its own contribution to the collective farm system for the NHL.

In other words, more guys get a shot at every level, and some of those guys develop too. The pipeline gets bigger and more talent reaches the NHL. Eventually these guys start seeing their own prospects reach the NHL level and the player supply normalizes. That's what we saw with the expansion in the 90s, and frankly if the expansion itself had been managed better (IE better vetting to ensure the new franchises had solid ownership/arena situations) it wouldn't have taken as long as it did.

There is not an absolute supply of hockey players that cannot be exceeded or grown. Not only are we seeing new talent enter the league from nontraditional locations, the greater number of existing franchises are scouring the traditional regions harder and finding the borderline talents they were passing over before. Some of those guys work out, and the talent pool expands. That's how it works.

Given that the recent 2 team expanion has seen both of the teams heavily involved in the playoffs already, I think we can put paid to the idea that there isn't enough talent to go around. If there was, teams would have been able to protect all their precious talent and the Kraken and Knights wouldn't have been as effective as they are.

If teams can't protect all their middling talent such that a playoff contender can be assembled from the surplus, there isn't a serious threat to the player supply right now.

 

[Bucky_Hoyt]

Kinda feel franchises will just carousel around and the league will probably not grow beyond 32 any time soon.

Atlanta, Houston, San Diego, Austin are all options and there are always a bottom tier of teams with the microscope on them.

Relos are now just as much as expansions. Much more likely to have relos every decade or so than expansions.

 

[Golden_Jet]

2 counter-arguments:

1. There are several college conferences in the US that currently span three time zones, and two more will start spanning from coast-to-coast on August 2.

2. Doing my alignment will create a healthy inventory of games between two Canadian teams, which tend to rate higher on national TV in Canada than games that involve at least one American team.

It’s an awful idea, that would never pass, the CDN teams would reject it.

Let your team play 3 time zones away.

 

[BMN]

Ah, @Big Z Man 1990 returns with their harebrained "give all Canadian teams a 12.5% chance to get to the Finals and all other teams a 3% chance to get to the Finals and I see no problem with it" scheme.

Hey, remember the 1995 season where Canadian teams had a 12.5% chance to get to the Grey Cup, while the American teams got to both skirt the import rule + also have a 20% chance to get to the Grey Cup starting out? Remember how stupid it was? This is equally stupid if not even worse.

Also, what you proport to be the most valuable TV asset (Cdn team vs. Cdn team ratings) doesn't need to be increased via a scheme this harebrained. Off the top of my head, I could imagine the current league switching to eight divisions of four, one of which is entirely Canadian (WPG/EDM/CAL/VAN) and one of which is 75% Canadian (MTL/TOR/OTT/DET).

Is it a good plan? No. Is it any worse than a plan that devalues any sense of accomplishment Canadian fans have about their team's road to the Finals? (Plus vastly reduces the chances of us ever seeing a Montreal vs. Boston or Toronto vs. Detroit playoff match ever again). I say it is not.

 

[KevFu]

I think San Diego is a market based on size and lack of saturation that the NHL would look thoroughly at... and I've advocated for SD over a place like Portland or KC in the past...

However, that being said... the guy who's trying to build the SD arena already owns an NHL team (well, technically, his wife owns the NHL team because of NFL ownership rules).

Which is a big ol' monkey wrench. If he wants to sell the Avs/Nuggets and take ownership of an NHL expansion team in San Diego, fine. But that's more complicated than Atlanta, Houston, Portland, and it sounds like now even Phoenix.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Ah, @Big Z Man 1990 returns with their harebrained "give all Canadian teams a 12.5% chance to get to the Finals and all other teams a 3% chance to get to the Finals and I see no problem with it" scheme.

Hey, remember the 1995 season where Canadian teams had a 12.5% chance to get to the Grey Cup, while the American teams got to both skirt the import rule + also have a 20% chance to get to the Grey Cup starting out? Remember how stupid it was? This is equally stupid if not even worse.

Also, what you proport to be the most valuable TV asset (Cdn team vs. Cdn team ratings) doesn't need to be increased via a scheme this harebrained. Off the top of my head, I could imagine the current league switching to eight divisions of four, one of which is entirely Canadian (WPG/EDM/CAL/VAN) and one of which is 75% Canadian (MTL/TOR/OTT/DET).

Is it a good plan? No. Is it any worse than a plan that devalues any sense of accomplishment Canadian fans have about their team's road to the Finals? (Plus vastly reduces the chances of us ever seeing a Montreal vs. Boston or Toronto vs. Detroit playoff match ever again). I say it is not.

Right now the NHL is the only big 4 league without a Boston/NYC division rivalry. My alignment rectifies that, and overall serves to emphasize regional rivalries among the American teams.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I like how people who flog the North Division as a Serious Idea completely forget that people got *real* sick of seeing other teams in the circumstances that the North division was birthed from, and chances are they'd be equally as sick and tired of seeing them if they had to play them 6 times a year *each* for the incredibly nebulous reasoning of soothing wounded nationalist egos. MTL/OTT/TOR especially would raise massive grievances, having to have any non-HNIC game in Vancouver start at 9:30/10:30 EST.

I just want to tell you that the North Division was actually kind of awesome. It was great to see my team (Winnipeg) play Canadian rivals multiple times per year (of course Winnipeg is the only Canadian team in it's division).

Where it started to get tiresome is you remember this was during Covid, and as such you could ONLY play teams in your division. If they brought back the North Division you wouldn't have that restriction anymore.

Look - I assume there's a reason the NHL hasn't brought back the North Division (and more then you need 8 teams per division, and there are only 7 Canadian teams). But from a fan perspective it would be great.

 

[SImpelton]

I think San Diego is a market based on size and lack of saturation that the NHL would look thoroughly at... and I've advocated for SD over a place like Portland or KC in the past...

However, that being said... the guy who's trying to build the SD arena already owns an NHL team (well, technically, his wife owns the NHL team because of NFL ownership rules).

Which is a big ol' monkey wrench. If he wants to sell the Avs/Nuggets and take ownership of an NHL expansion team in San Diego, fine. But that's more complicated than Atlanta, Houston, Portland, and it sounds like now even Phoenix.

I remain curious if perhaps the ownership of the Padres could be talked into something. The Padres are a third socal team, going strong, not exactly setting the world on fire but a healthy, stable franchise that's holding its own in a pretty tough division.

Not only that, but they also have a nearby rival in Arizona, and instead of financial instability the result is interesting rivalry baseball with the Dodgers and D-Backs that keeps both teams fresh and interesting.

Just saying, sometimes the best thing that can happen to a sports franchise is a nearby rival. Just ask Boston and Montreal. We loathe each other, but when both teams come to play it's some of the best hockey you'll ever see with passion just dripping off the faces of both teams and both fanbases. It's electric. It's insane. There's nothing else quite like it.

Just saying, the proximity to 2 other relatively healthy franchises may wind up being the best possible thing. Sunrise benefitted from the shot in the arm the Lightning got and now look at them. They geared up to challenge the Lightning and play some interesting hockey against a tough rival, now they're at the top step of the podium themselves.

 

[rojac]

Nope, that would be a terrible idea,
There no chance division Canada wants to play in one division in 3 time zones.

Does anyone think Boston, Rangers, or some other east team would want to play with teams in the Pacific division.

During the Covid season, was fine to get hockey again, but it soon became awful, with so many late games.

The Canadian teams are spread across 4 time zones not 3: Pacific, Mountain, Central, and Eastern.

 

[rojac]

I just want to tell you that the North Division was actually kind of awesome. It was great to see my team (Winnipeg) play Canadian rivals multiple times per year (of course Winnipeg is the only Canadian team in it's division).

Where it started to get tiresome is you remember this was during Covid, and as such you could ONLY play teams in your division. If they brought back the North Division you wouldn't have that restriction anymore.

Look - I assume there's a reason the NHL hasn't brought back the North Division (and more then you need 8 teams per division, and there are only 7 Canadian teams). But from a fan perspective it would be great.

I wasn't terribly fond of the North division at all. I've never had any desire to see the Western Canadian teams more than once or twice a year. Of course, I've never understood this whole American team versus Canadian team nonsense. I don't see any difference between Winnipeg and, say, Nashville or Edmonton and Colorado.

I'm not sure the NHL would have any interest in an all-Canadian division even if the numbers worked out.

 

[Bucky_Hoyt]

Having the Bruins, Habs and Rangers in the same division is completely possible.

East could have a myriad of combinations. Here are but three examples...

EX1
TOR OTW MTL BOS BUF NYI NYR NJD
DET CLM PIT PHI WAS CAR TBY FLO

EX2
TOR OTW DET CLM WAS CAR TBY FLO
MTL BOS BUF NYI NYR NJD PIT PHI

EX3
DET TOR OTW MTL BOS BUF NYI NYR
NJD PIT PHI CLM WAS CAR TBY FLO

Heck, the NHL could wipe out divisions entirely if they wanted to.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The Canadian teams are spread across 4 time zones not 3: Pacific, Mountain, Central, and Eastern.

Ya That’s right, 3 hours in Time zones.

 

[SImpelton]

I thought Columbus was CLB.