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EXPANSION DRAFT - Protect 7-3-1 or 4-4-1?

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What model will the Leafs choose for protection from the expansion draft

  • Total voters
    72
Dreakmur said:
We can only protect 4 forwards regardless of how many defenders we choose to protect…. Unless we start signing guys just to expose.

We must expose 2 forwards and we only have 6 that qualify.
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I forgot about that. Good point. I guess we'll be going 4 and 4. So take your pick between Dermott or Holl if you're Dubas. I read that you said Mikheyev is exempt? Why would be exempt? I thought I had heard somewhere that Brooks needed protected too but I don't see how he fits the criteria unless AHL games count. But yeah even still that'd be Matthews,Marner,Tavares, Nylander, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Engvall, Brooks. Which would mean we only are exposing 1 forward anyways so still doesn't qualify unless we re-sign someone prior and then protect them.
 
WayneTrain said:
I forgot about that. Good point. I guess we'll be going 4 and 4. So take your pick between Dermott or Holl if you're Dubas. I read that you said Mikheyev is exempt? Why would be exempt? I thought I had heard somewhere that Brooks needed protected too but I don't see how he fits the criteria unless AHL games count. But yeah even still that'd be Matthews,Marner,Tavares, Nylander, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Engvall, Brooks. Which would mean we only are exposing 1 forward anyways so still doesn't qualify unless we re-sign someone prior and then protect them.
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Also, if Dermott doesn’t sign before, he doesn’t count either….
 
WayneTrain said:
I forgot about that. Good point. I guess we'll be going 4 and 4. So take your pick between Dermott or Holl if you're Dubas. I read that you said Mikheyev is exempt? Why would be exempt? I thought I had heard somewhere that Brooks needed protected too but I don't see how he fits the criteria unless AHL games count. But yeah even still that'd be Matthews,Marner,Tavares, Nylander, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Engvall, Brooks. Which would mean we only are exposing 1 forward anyways so still doesn't qualify unless we re-sign someone prior and then protect them.
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Mikheyev is exempt because he’s only completed two pro seasons. KHL doesn’t count. Anyone with two or less is exempt.
 
WayneTrain said:
What I read is either 27 games last season or 54 games played in the last 2 seasons. But maybe there's some fine print on that
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That’s the requirements to be exposed. Players who have not completed two pro seasons will be exempt from protection.
thats why last time none of Willy Matthews marner or Zaitsev required protecting and that’s why this time Robertson liljegren sandin and mikheyev are exempt.
 
For anyone who doesn't know about the Capfriendly draft simulator: Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps It's super easy to use (and fun).

IMO the defense is the only place of question.

- Protect the 4 forwards, Engvall and Kerfoot satisfy the exposure requirements.
- Protect Campbell, expose Hutchinson.

a. Protect 4 defenders (Muzzin, Rielly, Brodie and Holl) sign Dermott to expose him.
b. Protect 4 defenders (Muzzin, Rielly, Brodie and Holl) trade Dermott, acquire another defenseman* or re-sign Bogosian to satisfy exposure rules.
c. Protect 4 defenders (Muzzin, Rielly, Brodie and Dermott) expose Holl.

* there are very few teams with spare defensemen for exposure, this will be more expensive than you'd think

I'll ask the question: why would Dermott re-sign before the expansion draft without a handshake agreement that he will be protected? I wouldn't if I were him. If I'm possibly getting exposed at the expansion draft and possibly taken, I'd wait to negotiate my RFA deal with my new team.

Tough call. Holl's more valuable than Dermott at this point but it could in all likelihood force other asset spending to protect him.
 
I think one of two things happens, both going 4+4

Simple- Protect our best 4 defenseman, they take Kerfoot
Complex- we've had under the table talks to re-sign Reilly, it will be pretty much a done deal on July 1. We need cap space and are worried about Muzzin's injury history. We get Seattle to pay us to leave him exposed, the take Muzzin

Way more likely that we go simple, but if the core isn't moving and we're re-signing Rielly Muzzin is the single highest leverage piece on the roster.
 
Dreakmur said:
Which two forwards are exposed?

This isn’t just about how many we protect. You must expose 2 forwards, 1 defenseman, and 1 goalie.

Mikheyev is exempted. The only two forwards who fill the requirements are Kerfoot and Engvall.

Unless we sign somebody else before the draft, both of them get exposed.

Also, if Dermott doesn’t sign, We must expose another defenseman.

We may end up only protecting 4 forwards, 3 defenseman, and 1 goalie.
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I thought Petan fills one exposure requirement? They could re-sign Spezza before the ED as well too.
 
Kerfoot looked really good in playoffs
Maybe we go 7-3-1 and protect him
Holl is a 6th/7th guy on a decent team (nice to have on team but more for insurance)
Dermy has upside and much more skill than Holl
I still expect Seattle to take Dermy
If we sign/protect dermy on 4-4-1 then likely Kerfoot goes to Seattle
Bottom line there is no need to protect Holl as Seattle does not want him as they are trying to build a future team
 
I've probably posted about it too many times, but to me protecting Holl over Dermott would be a major mistake.

- His numbers since Feb 1st have been bad; fairly certain he's being carried by Muzzin.
- Dermott will be cheaper, and is our best defender at denying the zone.
- When you have 4 forwards that take up so much cap, every dollar matters. Can Dermott replace Holl alongside Muzzin? My assumption is yes.
- Keeping the 30 year old over the 25 year old who is better is poor asset management.

With all that said, I totally expect them to value Holl higher because he's a RHD but I personally think he's a bottom-pairing guy.
 
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Kraken 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules same as Golden Knights followed - NHL.com

Current NHL teams can protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goalie, under the following conditions.

• All players with no movement clauses at the time of the draft, and who decline to waive those clauses, must be protected and will be counted toward their team's applicable protection limits.

• All first- and second-year professionals, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.

In addition, all NHL teams must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the draft:

• One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.

• Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.

• One goalie who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the end of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If a team elects to make a restricted free agent goalie available to meet this requirement, that goalie must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the team's protected list.

• Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a team's player exposure requirements unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection.
 
fahad203 said:
I would expose Muzzin. Hes been on decline and becoming injury prone
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The play-offs were over as a contest the moment he went off the ice injured.

Unless they've got someone lined up to replace him, it would be a bad move.

Also, no chance Dubas does it anyway, he treats people well, he wouldn't bring him to TO and get him to sign a new deal then just bin him.
 
Everyone thinks it will be 4-4-1. Honestly I am not so sure anymore.

1.) in the presser. Dubas said that he is looking to sign Hyman. He also said that signing him before the expansion draft would not effect his plans.

if they sign Hyman. It has to be 7-3-1. If that wasn’t the plan then why would he say that?

2.) when Brodie was signed. Completely unprovoked he said that he expected brodie to be here for 4 years and then dermott take his spot.

3.) if the kraken take kerfoot. They have to pay the 2.7 or whatever bonus.

that would point to holl right? He could be lying? But he definitely said all that. I
 
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If I'm Dermott, I ain't re-signing before the expansion draft without a promise that I'm protected. For this reason alone, in a 4-4-1 scenario I believe that sets forth the conclusion to protect Dermott whether or not he's signed thus exposing Holl. RHD Holl @ $2M for 2 more years with >20 minutes per night is a valuable commodity. It's guaranteed that he'd be chosen. Even if Seattle doesn't need to want Holl on their roster, he would have value on the trade market.

Another scenario could be to acquire/re-sign a couple of forwards (possibly including Hyman) worth protecting before the expansion draft. At this point one of Kerfoot and Engvall have to be exposed anyways. Then you go to 7-3-1 alignment, expose both Holl and Dermott (you can only lose 1 of them after all and there's benefits to either player). Let's say for example the team re-signs Hyman and Galchenyuk before the draft. Then the protection list looks like this:

Forwards:
Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander
Hyman
Galchenyuk
Joey Anderson or Adam Brooks
Kerfoot and Engvall exposed as per exposure requirements.

Defense:
Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
with Holl as the exposure requirement and Dermott also exposed.
 
Last edited:
Can people just stop mentioning exposing Muzzin? It's sheer lunacy. He's an extremely valuable member to the team and more than worth his cap hit.
 
Which out of Kerfoot, Dermott or Holl have the most trade value? They should be the priority to protect.
 
GBLeaf said:
The play-offs were over as a contest the moment he went off the ice injured.

Unless they've got someone lined up to replace him, it would be a bad move.

Also, no chance Dubas does it anyway, he treats people well, he wouldn't bring him to TO and get him to sign a new deal then just bin him.
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No it wasn't. Thats not a fact and you know it. We didn't lose the game or games because he was injured we lost because we didn't generate enough chances

The fact is he's tied up to a contract and term he won't be able to live up to. He's reaching Dion Phaneuf level of slowness and immobility

Oh yes. Classic Dubas is a nice guy and he won't trade him. We all know that to be a fact. Dubas too busy being mother Theresa than he is doing whats best for the team. Making difficult yet right decisions
 
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