Maple Leafs protected list: Who's staying and who could be picked in the Seattle Kraken expansion draft? - The Athletic
Protected skaters (8)
John Tavares: The Leafs captain has a no-movement clause, and I can’t foresee any situation in which Tavares waives his NMC. In 2020-21, he improved and took on more of a defensive role, then late in the season played some of his best offensive hockey since he signed with Toronto in 2018.
Auston Matthews: Exposing the top goal scorer in the league this season?
Mitch Marner: There’s a different Leafs player every offseason that divides the fan base in a particularly vitriolic way. And this summer, after a brutal postseason, Marner is that player. But it doesn’t matter how divisive a player he is right now, Marner’s not getting exposed in the draft to clear cap space. Offensive producers like him don’t grow on trees. And even if the Leafs do part with him, he’s far more valuable in a trade than just a salary-cap dump. Moving on.
William Nylander: Not only was Nylander the Leafs’ best playoff performer, if he continues his stellar production throughout the regular season, his $6.9 million cap hit may actually end up being a bargain.
I have no doubt there are Leafs fans that would be happy to see Nylander’s contract off the books to clear some room for a defenceman or something. But like Marner, that’s just not going to happen. Nylander’s only going to get better, so he’s not going anywhere.
Jake Muzzin: Muzzin continues to be a rock on the Leafs blue line. He’s a player who is a safe and responsible puck-mover. Plus, his emotional stability and continued physicality will come in handy if the Leafs ever make a long playoff run. Another immensely valuable part of the core.
T.J. Brodie: The Leafs’ best defenceman this season, and one who supported Morgan Rielly in a way no other partner has during Rielly’s tenure in Toronto. He was the picture of dependability as one of two Leafs players to play every regular season and playoff game. Defencemen who can play the right side like him are hard to find, and if he continues doing all the little things right in his own zone and supporting whoever the next puck-mover is on the top pair, his $5 million cap hit could also end up providing great value for the Leafs.
Morgan Rielly: Very quietly, Rielly had an excellent postseason against Montreal, and remains a key piece of the roster to start next season. Of course, Rielly’s status as UFA in 2022 complicates things by casting some doubt over his long-term future in Toronto. I’m of the opinion that Rielly is important to this core. But even if there is a trade to be made in-season, the Leafs still have to protect him.
Justin Holl: Holl is probably the only real debatable player on this version of the protected list. Let’s look at both sides of the debate.
Did Holl maintain his strong early-season play throughout the late season and the playoffs? Definitely not. He wasn’t necessarily a drag, but he drifted in and out of games at times and his errors with and without the puck became more noticeable. There’s certainly merit in exposing him, as you could argue that he’s propped up by his defence partner Muzzin.
But part of the value in protecting Holl lies in his cheap cap hit, and the flexibility that having a second-pair defenceman earning just $2 million allows the Leafs. Could management find a comparable defenceman elsewhere in the NHL for Holl’s $2 million cap hit? It’s not as likely compared to other players who could be exposed (more on that in a bit). There’s just too much bang-for-your-buck in Holl, and my sense is the Leafs see Holl as a player they can continue to coach up and find different elements of his game to tinker with.
Two more seasons of Holl at $2 million allows the Leafs some much-needed stability on the blue line. Their back end made great strides as a collective this season and I don’t know how much you want to mess with that core.
Goaltender (1)
Jack Campbell: Having their emerging starting goaltender making $1.65 million next season is going to be a serious boon to the Leafs in terms of roster construction. They’re going to have to add another goalie who can log close to half the games in the season, sure. Even if you question whether or not Campbell can have another stellar season that he did in 2021, he is undoubtedly the guy in Toronto, and his contract could end up being the most valuable for the Leafs.
Notable players exempt from selection
Rasmus Sandin: Still in his entry-level contract, this valuable member of the future Leafs defence corps isn’t going anywhere. If things shake out the way they could and the Leafs lose a defenceman to Seattle, Sandin could be due for a bigger role than planned next season.
Nicholas Robertson: Another player in his ELC, I have Robertson pencilled in for fourth-line minutes next season.
Ilya Mikheyev: Yes, he’s 26, but with only two NHL seasons under his belt he’s exempt from the expansion draft. He needs a more productive season offensively, but for his $1.6 million cap hit, his energy and penalty-killing skills still provide value.
Timothy Liljegren: He should log more NHL minutes next season, even as the seventh defenceman. That’s a reasonable expectation for a first-round pick in his final year of his ELC.
