OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 8

[foggyvisor]

Aren't viruses supposed to lose potency and be less transmissible over time?

Nature would select so fatality decreases and transmissibility increases.

The next year will be interesting as mass vaccination drives the virus to select more for mutations that enhance immune evasion. Normally this could be offset by less transmission, but there will be pockets of the unvaccinated world where these new variants can transmit at high rates.

Regular booster shots and mass vaccination should get this under control, but those are both ambitious goals. Under control = keep hospitalizations low.

 

[SPF6ty9]

Yah it sucks. It looks very transmissible.

One thing to remember, vaccinations almost completely erase the risk of hospitalization for any of these mutants.

Any word on how the vaccines do against the India double mutation? They seem to decrease the risk by varying degrees but by a noticeable amount on the other variants we know, but wasn't sure if the double mutation has even really hit a vaccinated population.

Great to hear this thing is in Canada...like how much common sense does it take to stop travel from these areas? Apparently more than the gov. has.

I'm not a virus expert, so I have to ask....is this normal? This is what, the third or fourth mutation now (UK, Arizona, Brazil..) in less than two years, and each mutation seems to be making the virus worse. Aren't viruses supposed to lose potency and be less transmissible over time?

I'm kind of curious myself as I was under the impression transmission could increase but potency less so, seems like both have been reported so far. Might just be a case of growing transmission but the potency is still below a certain threshold that would have selected that strain out of existence. I think it's the people with the virus that came from a lab theory that think it would get worse via mutation. Frankly I don't have the expertise to do anything more than sit and watch; so really it doesn't matter to me anyways where it comes from or what it is. Just gotta hope those in the position to do something are doing the right thing for all of us.

 

[Big Muddy]

Anyone following what's going on in India?

300,000 cases yesterday alone. It's a double mutation, and apparently is even more transmissible than the UK/Brazil variants. Not sure if it's able to sneak past the vaccines yet. Either way, the virus is absolutely devastating their health care system right now. Shades of Spain when this whole thing started.

Apparently the double mutation has made it's way to Canada - BC has had over three dozen cases of it so far and I believe Quebec has cases now.

I've wondered about that mutation as well. Curious if there's some feedback. Maybe the main board C-19 thread is discussing it?

 

[Big Muddy]

Allowing international travel from COVID hotspots but telling Canadians to stay at home and don’t visit people, curfews, etc. You couldn’t make it up.

There are a number of regulations that apply to all international travel into Canada.

Travelers need a negative test to get on a plane or before making a land border crossing. There will be another test at the point of entry (or within 24 hours). You have to quarantine for 14 days, and you test again on Day #10 while in quarantine. For the Day #10 test, your have a live video conference going with a government official who watches you do the test. The test kit also has serial numbers that must be verified. There are fines for offenders. And they don't allow non-essential travel + there are other procedures as well.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

So who is being punished again?

 

[Beech]

So who is being punished again?

this is a considerably way more complicated issue than what can be reasonably debated. You could teach a year long university coarse on the dynamics of social structure and responsibility and order, etc.

 

[JD1]

There are a number of regulations that apply to all international travel into Canada.

Travelers need a negative test to get on a plane or before making a land border crossing. There will be another test at the point of entry (or within 24 hours). You have to quarantine for 14 days, and you test again on Day #10 while in quarantine. For the Day #10 test, your have a live video conference going with a government official who watches you do the test. The test kit also has serial numbers that must be verified. There are fines for offenders. And they don't allow non-essential travel + there are other procedures as well.

You know what would work better? Not allowing flights from certain countries

Pretty sure those Indian variants didn't walk here

 

[Big Muddy]

You know what would work better? Not allowing flights from certain countries

Pretty sure those Indian variants didn't walk here

But, what countries (just the country of origin, or others) as viruses tend to spread.

Things are always more complicated.

I'd wonder what you'd say for example if you were trying to visit an elderly parent (e.g., over 90 years of age) who has had health issues? Consider that many of those people will be fully vaccinated on both sides of the equation (parent and visiting family member), wear masks and take all of the other precautions. Would you want to see that person again while they are still living?

 

[Knave]

You know what would work better? Not allowing flights from certain countries

Pretty sure those Indian variants didn't walk here

It's too late now but I think it's really important to emphasize how big of a mistake this could end up being. Maybe things work out, I certainly hope so.

We are currently vaccinating. Lets say we had no flights from India from March onwards. Maybe it still gets in via a third country but the targeted ban on incoming traffic from Delhi airport buys us weeks, a month, maybe even slightly longer.

That's the difference between 33% of adults being vaccinated and potentially 60%+ of adults being vaccinated. And while I'm sure vaccines might be less effective against this variant, it would still drastically reduce the burden on overstretched healthcare systems. So in this sense 'delaying' the arrival of a new variant has some significant advantages.

As for the 14 day quarantine - yeah, we all know how well that has worked back in March 2020, in the fall of 2020 and now in the spring of 2021. It's clear that we're far from full compliance.

 

[DaveMatthew]

There are a number of regulations that apply to all international travel into Canada.

Travelers need a negative test to get on a plane or before making a land border crossing. There will be another test at the point of entry (or within 24 hours). You have to quarantine for 14 days, and you test again on Day #10 while in quarantine. For the Day #10 test, your have a live video conference going with a government official who watches you do the test. The test kit also has serial numbers that must be verified. There are fines for offenders. And they don't allow non-essential travel + there are other procedures as well.

There were a number of regulations that business owners had to adhere to, as well - increased cleaning requirements, strict capacity limits, etc. Many followed these guidelines to the letter and were able to provide a safe environment for employees and customers.

But they weren't able to mitigate ALL the risk, so once again, they've been forced to close.

Most people agree that, while it sucks, it's necessary, because of the situation we're in.

Why is non-essential, international travel being treated differently? It's pure optics.

The federal government's refusal to secure our borders early on, and their continued hesitation now, is a massive failure that has put millions of Canadian's at an unnecessary risk. Amidst a series of blunders by officials at all levels of government, it continues to stand out as the biggest one.

 

[Big Muddy]

As for the 14 day quarantine - yeah, we all know how well that has worked back in March 2020, in the fall of 2020 and now in the spring of 2021. .

Not to dispute some of the other things you said, but there is far more than just a quarantine requirement now - see #904.

If people have been vaccinated and tested (required by regulation), that's a very different situation that just a quarantine (which is also required).

Hard to keep citizens from visiting their own country of citizenship indefinitely.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Not to dispute some of the other things you said, but there is far more than just a quarantine requirement now - see #904.

If people have been vaccinated and tested (required by regulation), that's a very different situation that just a quarantine (which is also required).

Hard to keep citizens from visiting their own country of citizenship indefinitely.

Trudeau tells Canadians abroad it’s ‘time to come home’

That was 13 months ago.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

this is a considerably way more complicated issue than what can be reasonably debated. You could teach a year long university coarse on the dynamics of social structure and responsibility and order, etc.

My only point is to push back against the "it isn't fair/we are being punished for having kids or not being able to work from home".

We do what has to be done. Fairness shouldn't be a deciding factor here. That 20 something year old is likely going die/already dead because people aren't careful enough.

 

[Big Muddy]

The federal government's refusal to secure our borders early on, and their continued hesitation now, is a massive failure that has put millions of Canadian's at an unnecessary risk. Amidst a series of blunders by officials at all levels of government, it continues to stand out as the biggest one.

There are a number of risks. I'd think the biggest one right now is the amount of unvaccinated people right now, and those folks are within the border.

And although I'm getting into something that is an "aside" to a degree, the concept of dealing with vaccinated people changes the dynamic I'd think.

There is risk, and there is risk mitigation. I think the risk mitigation is easier (more effective) to do for those entering from elsewhere if you have the things I've been talking about (vaccinated people, tests, etc., etc.).

 

[Big Muddy]

That was 13 months ago.

I'm not sure how this is relevant. The next sentence assumes I understand the point you are trying to make. There are Canadian citizens that are not coming home because their home is not in Canada.

 

[JD1]

But, what countries (just the country of origin, or others) as viruses tend to spread.

Things are always more complicated.

I'd wonder what you'd say for example if you were trying to visit an elderly parent (e.g., over 90 years of age) who has had health issues? Consider that many of those people will be fully vaccinated on both sides of the equation (parent and visiting family member), wear masks and take all of the other precautions. Would you want to see that person again while they are still living?

My 90 year old elderly parent lives one mile away. One f***ING MILE AWAY. And i can't go visit him. He's been vaccinated. I've been vaccinated and were both confined to our f***ing homes. Part of the reason for that confinement is the federal government not having the f***ing balls to shut down air travel. And I dare say that part of the reason Trudeau doesn't have the balls to shut down air travel from India is because he had to go there grovelling for vaccine. And why did he have to do that? Because his first move was getting inbed with the Chinese

So....sorry if I dont have sympathy for people that can't see relatives from foreign countries when I can't hop on my bike and go see my own elderly father.

Sorry...you didn't deserve the rant....but your example struck a nerve because my father is 90, lives around the corner....and he's alone

 

[DaveMatthew]

We do what has to be done. Fairness shouldn't be a deciding factor here. That 20 something year old is likely going die/already dead because people aren't careful enough.

Unfortunately that's simply not the case.

We could have slowed the spread if our only focus was on vaccinating as many people as we could, as quickly as possible. But that wouldn't be "fair", because young people in Toronto would have been vaccinated before 65 year olds in Sudbury. So we distributed vaccines based on age, and sent them to different regions. It added weeks to timelines. And now, we are where we are.

And let's stop chalking everything up to "people aren't careful enough".

There are specific policies that are our governments (at all levels, across all parties) have failed to put into place, that have had far more of an effect than any person's individual actions.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I'm not sure how this is relevant. The next sentence assumes I understand the point you are trying to make. There are Canadian citizens that are not coming home because their home is not in Canada.

And if their "home" is not Canada, and they chose to stay in a country that's become a hotspot, they should not be allowed into the country at this point in time. Even if they're a citizen.

For our government, the needs of people in the country outweigh the needs of those abroad.

 

[Billy Bridges]

Any word on how the vaccines do against the India double mutation? They seem to decrease the risk by varying degrees but by a noticeable amount on the other variants we know, but wasn't sure if the double mutation has even really hit a vaccinated population.

I've wondered about that mutation as well. Curious if there's some feedback. Maybe the main board C-19 thread is discussing it?

Not a lot of info yet, but knowing that it produces higher viral loads in the body and antibody neutralization is less, the vaccines are probably going to be less effective at preventing infection and transmission. Important disclaimer is that without real world data, this doesn't mean that vaccines won't prevent severe infection/hospitalization/death. For example - despite earlier concerns about the AZ vaccine not being effective against the SA variant, the vaccine is still preventing severe cases despite not being perfect.

 

[Mingus Dew]

Unfortunately that's simply not the case.

We could have slowed the spread if our only focus was on vaccinating as many people as we could, as quickly as possible. But that wouldn't be "fair", because young people in Toronto would have been vaccinated before 65 year olds in Sudbury. So we distributed vaccines based on age, and sent them to different regions. It added weeks to timelines. And now, we are where we are.

And let's stop chalking everything up to "people aren't careful enough".

There are specific policies that are our governments (at all levels, across all parties) have failed to put into place, that have had far more of an effect than any person's individual actions.

This is an interesting and oft overlooked point. It would have been most efficient and effective to simply vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible, regardless of risk factors or age.

But that would have been bad PR. So we did things slowly to fit a preferable narrative.

 

[DaveMatthew]

There are a number of risks. I'd think the biggest one right now is the amount of unvaccinated people right now, and those folks are within the border.

And although I'm getting into something that is an "aside" to a degree, the concept of dealing with vaccinated people changes the dynamic I'd think.

There is risk, and there is risk mitigation. I think the risk mitigation is easier (more effective) to do for those entering from elsewhere if you have the things I've been talking about (vaccinated people, tests, etc., etc.).

The other consideration is the allocation of resources.

Yes, we could mitigate risks from international travel by putting in place and enforcing strict guidelines. But that requires significant resources. Which means there are less resources available to help people who are living in Canada.

International travel from a hot-spot like India, in 95% of cases, is not essential. And it should not be allowed.

Let's say you get an incoming flight that has multiple cases, which has already happened quite frequently. That flight lands in Canada, and everyone is forced to quarantine. During that quarantine, a person develops significant complications and has to be admitted to the ICU. Right there, you've taken a bed that is no longer available for a person living in Canada.

 

[DylanSensFan]

I believe you have a daughter.

AZ, like the pill causes clots (as does the J&J). That makes it dangerous for young women. Can you imagine young women on the pill and taking the AZ shot. So we may ask Canada's 5 million young women, aged 18-45 to increase their chances of blood clots, to protect their 80 year old Grandmother..who by virtue of government programs, gets the Pfizer or Moderna!!!!! Brilliant. Not the other way around!

We have government agencies and other bodies counteracting each other and changing recommendations. How safe should you feel as a Mom, knowing that your Daughter may be injured to save your Mother? One maybe 18-45, the other 70-90.....

My family history? both sides, is littered with heart issues....I carry heart attack as a middle name. You can imagine, my Nieces and Nephews are most likely susceptible...So, we ask them to increase their chances of heart issues, so that my 85 year mother is okay???? My Mother would not accept.

Read Section 7 (i) of our Charter. Our government is responsible to protect us from accidental or purposeful death. There are already going to be massive class action lawsuits coming against the provincial governments who failed to protect their citizens and continue to fail. I highly doubt that the Federal government wants to pile on with regards to killing people, or endangering their lives. This virus is a killer and every vaccine has been vetted by scientists all over the world, including with relation to thrombosis. A lot of what you're seeing is POLITICS. Rachel Notley had the Astra-Zeneca vaccine here in Alberta. She's planning on running in the next election and I doubt she would choose the vaccine if she thought it was going to harm her. The majority of the people who have come down with these clots were overweight or already in bad health.

 

[Big Muddy]

My 90 year old elderly parent lives one mile away. One f***ING MILE AWAY. And i can't go visit him. He's been vaccinated. I've been vaccinated and were both confined to our f***ing homes. Part of the reason for that confinement is the federal government not having the f***ing balls to shut down air travel. And I dare say that part of the reason Trudeau doesn't have the balls to shut down air travel from India is because he had to go there grovelling for vaccine. And why did he have to do that? Because his first move was getting inbed with the Chinese

So....sorry if I dont have sympathy for people that can't see relatives from foreign countries when I can't hop on my bike and go see my own elderly father.

Sorry...you didn't deserve the rant....but your example struck a nerve because my father is 90, lives around the corner....and he's alone

#1 - I do sympathize with all people in this situation, regardless of proximity, or where they are living. Friends of mine are in this situation as well in fact.

#2 - I think if both the elderly parent and the person visiting is vaccinated, they should be allowed to see each other. I think regulations or rules just haven't caught up with the situation, a dynamic that I guess is unfolding rapidly in comparison to changing regulations.

There are many ways to further mitigate risk to supplement vaccinations (not replace) even though vaccination is a very strong measure in itself. Those measures include masks, holding meetings outdoors, etc.

If you look at #933, the different points I have been talking about have been put into one place with some of the underlying context.

Anyhow, I guess you are right. I will likely never see my father alive again, and I pray and sincerely hope you won't suffer the same fate.

 

[slamigo]

You know what would work better? Not allowing flights from certain countries

Pretty sure those Indian variants didn't walk here

Well, a good portion of the millions of doses of AstraZeneca vaccine will be coming into Canada on flights from India. So it's really difficult for the Govt to ban flights and not risk India just cutting off Canada. Although that might happen anyway now...

 

[JD1]

Well, a good portion of the millions of doses of AstraZeneca vaccine will be coming into Canada on flights from India. So it's really difficult for the Govt to ban flights and not risk India just cutting off Canada. Although that might happen anyway now...

Yep