OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 6

[Micklebot]

I just found this on it after I asked. COVID-19 vaccines may not prevent spread of virus, so mask-wearing, other protections still critical

I read something a few days ago from a talking suit from one of the 3 companies seeking approval for their vaccine. He said he wasn't sure, that it needs to be further researched.

This isn't the same article I read, but it's the same quote

Can You Spread Coronavirus After You Receive the Vaccine?

Cool, thx for posting those.

If nothing else, one would hope recovery of those vaccinated would be faster than those not vaccinated, thus shortening the time during which people are contageous.

 

[Xspyrit]

Every person that gravitates around hospitals and retirement homes have to be vaccinated as fast as possible

That's how my grandfather got the virus. A woman who often goes to the hospital for chemotherapy gave the virus to a caregiver who then gave it to my grandfather. He's 85 and has dementia. I don't want to be defeatist but I'm scared it could be my 4th funeral this year and the millionth in my freaking 41 years life.

I think a good stratedgy to make your limited supply of vaccines early on have the greatest impact on slowing the spread would be to target demographics most commonly linked to superspreader events or spreaders in general. Not sure who that is (insert joke about prioritizing political rally goers here) but it might turn out that the people who are facilitating the spead by their behaviours are not those who themselves are most vulnerable, but by vaccinating them you can protect a larger group more efficiently.

So... Vacinate the anti maskers and covid deniers?

laughing is good for mental health, thanks

 

[thinkwild]

It might get interesting as we start approaching the herd immunity threshold. I think they're suggesting 70% vaccinated would be that number. But as we start getting more data from the first vaccines that might change a little. And the plans for who to vaccinate first may have to take a back seat to logistical realities at first.

But at 51% vaccinated the majority might start really clamping down on the idea of: no vaccine passport, no service. At 60%, could be a deadly time as many will feel its now safe enough to doff any more masking or distancing.

It was interesting hearing one doctor suggest that if he was to enter a covid patient’s room, to be safest he would physically distance. If he had to approach the patient, he would wear a mask. If all he had was his vaccination, he would feel least safe as the other two options provide better protection.

We don’t know if kids will be able to take the vaccine yet. Or if it prevents transmission while vaccinated. Or if it will need to be an annual vaccine, the 2nd year of which may be starting before the first one is finished.

We may be at the beginning of the end. But we are apparently still needing to learn a fair bit more.

 

[Beech]

I'm not advocating anything, I'm simply recognizing that I'm at the back of the line

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make regarding the generals. As far as I can tell, they're there to run the logistics, not to make health care decisions

they should be using military logic to assign who gets the early doses. Average age of a Covid death in Alberta is 83.

So in our panic, we are going to give it to health care workers and 80 plus. GOD help us if anything goes wrong. Then the group that we have darn near killed ourselves to protect, will be fried in higher percentage than the virus could kill (6% deadly for the 20% high risk, at ~ 4-5% infection rate...so the high risk is today at 0.23% death rate) we may be sending them to significantly higher rates..And then we will add doctors and nurses and EMT, etc...

As for advocating..my apologies, the proper term should have been: THEY are advocating guinea pigs out of the early recipients which brings us back to my first paragraph. My apologies if I insinuated some sinister plan on your part.

They do need to use the military model as a perfect example. Males (and some females) 17-27 first. Males 28-40 next.. and so on. They maybe making a huge mistake...Again, let's hope not.

 

[Beech]

Well, seeing as how the general population is not going to get vaccinated overnight, even with that on the horizon, the virus will continue spreading, we'll likely be forced to continue locking down significant sectors of our economy until Summer/Fall 2021. That will be catastrophic to thousands of people from a health perspective, and millions from a financial perspective.

Keep in mind, we've never gone through a winter with COVID. The worst may very well be yet to come.

Rapid tests have proven to be effective. They're cheap. They're easy to distribute. And they would give people the peace of mind to know whether they should go out, or stay home - allowing us to re-open while lowering risks.

yes and no. The UK, USA, Russia, Belgium, Spain, Portugal..all blow by us in terms of tests per million. Yet their situations are much more dire than ours. Massive testing is not the fix people are assuming it to be. There is only one solution:

I am a numbers geek and I have done the math. Death and infection numbers are partially intertwined, but the real issue is infection among the 20% vulnerable. Their death rate is 40 times higher. Average age of an Alberta victim is 83.

The issue in Canada is simple. In march, unknowingly, we had an infection rate among that vulnerable group at ~ 3.1% of the total positives. By summer, we had that number down to 0.3%. It is now back up to 3.5%..Once they announced that bloody vaccine, it allowed people to let their guard down.

Trudeau and all Premiers must get back on the airwaves and scare the living daylights out of that vulnerable group to get them back into hiding. We can test until the cows come home, nothing will work as good as the vulnerable staying away from everyone and everything.

We have got to find a way to seal that group off.... the other reality of this virus...the 80% non vulnerable. They are at 0.15% death risk..or ~ 1 in 666....the vulnerable ~ 6.4%...or 1 in 15....By the time you get to 80 plus year old..that number is scary.

Everyone needs to stay away from anyone above 65 and anyone who remotely has a health issue.

 

[Xspyrit]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/covid-long-hauler-edmonton-chronic-symptoms-1.5831211

Any "covid denier", "anti-masker", "anti-whatever" would instantly feel very differently if this were to happen to them or a close parent/person.

 

[Icelevel]

Cool. Bernie is a SenS fan

 

[Beech]

The dumbest thing that we did, was announcing the vaccine. Since its announcement, the Netherlands has gone into a 3rd wave. As have a large number of other nations.

We in Canada have doubled our rates of infections and deaths since. Even more troubling is a near 10 times rise in infections and deaths among the vulnerable group.

They needed to keep the news under wraps until well after its approval and start of use. They may have added thousands of deaths to the pile. And now Pfizer is announcing issues with its manufacturing.

People, go back to life as it was in June through October....

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The dumbest thing that we did, was announcing the vaccine. Since its announcement, the Netherlands has gone into a 3rd wave. As have a large number of other nations.

We in Canada have doubled our rates of infections and deaths since. Even more troubling is a near 10 times rise in infections and deaths among the vulnerable group.

They needed to keep the news under wraps until well after its approval and start of use. They may have added thousands of deaths to the pile. And now Pfizer is announcing issues with its manufacturing.

People, go back to life as it was in June through October....

$ the companies have shareholders

 

[thinkwild]

The dumbest thing that we did, was announcing the vaccine. Since its announcement, the Netherlands has gone into a 3rd wave. As have a large number of other nations.

We in Canada have doubled our rates of infections and deaths since. Even more troubling is a near 10 times rise in infections and deaths among the vulnerable group.

They needed to keep the news under wraps until well after its approval and start of use. They may have added thousands of deaths to the pile. And now Pfizer is announcing issues with its manufacturing.

People, go back to life as it was in June through October....

Playing down the coming vaccine in order to preserve enough panic to keep everyone inside may be the kind of paternalistic thinking partly responsible for where America is now.

There may also be many people who were fed up and about to start ignoring public health guidelines who might now think, well since a vaccine is on the way, maybe i'll continue a while longer. Im guessing that hope works better than fear for the science based.

Also, for all those based in reality, scientists were predicting this 2nd wave during the 1st wave. That winter weather would lead to a rise in cases judging by the experience of the Spanish Flu 100 years ago. That also predicted the 2nd wave would be bigger. Also a 100 years ago, there were anti mask wearing protests. Our technology has come a long way in 100 years. Humanity itself maybe not so much.

 

[Micklebot]

The dumbest thing that we did, was announcing the vaccine. Since its announcement, the Netherlands has gone into a 3rd wave. As have a large number of other nations.

We in Canada have doubled our rates of infections and deaths since. Even more troubling is a near 10 times rise in infections and deaths among the vulnerable group.

They needed to keep the news under wraps until well after its approval and start of use. They may have added thousands of deaths to the pile. And now Pfizer is announcing issues with its manufacturing.

People, go back to life as it was in June through October....

Temperatures are droping so people are staying indoors and keeping the windows closed. I doubt the announcement of successful vaccine trials have much to do with 2nd or 3rd waves, we were always expecting things to get worse as winter approached.

 

[Stylizer1]

 

[Micklebot]

So my understanding is the movie studios set up bubbles for the film crew and catering services, they do mandatory testing for everyone in the bubble. While yes, food is being served in both cases, the similarities appear to end there. I don't think the restaurant owner complaining about how unfair it is would have any interest is spending what the studios do to create the safe environment for their workers.

 

[Sens]

If that 90 year old in Britain gets sick... it’s over so hopefully not

 

[Stylizer1]

So my understanding is the movie studios set up bubbles for the film crew and catering services, they do mandatory testing for everyone in the bubble. While yes, food is being served in both cases, the similarities appear to end there. I don't think the restaurant owner complaining about how unfair it is would have any interest is spending what the studios do to create the safe environment for their workers.

Each of those workers are in a bubble at work but are free to travel around the city like everyone else. The rule seems stupid. You have the NHL/NBA bubble and then you have MLB/NFL. Those two situations are fine though? Its the same thing.

 

[Micklebot]

Each of those workers are in a bubble at work but are free to travel around the city like everyone else. The rule seems stupid. You have the NHL/NBA bubble and then you have MLB/NFL. Those two situations are fine though? Its the same thing.

I think the biggest aspect is the testing regime, they also control strictly who comes in contact with who while on the studio grounds

It's not perfect but it is likely far more than any restaurant would be willing or capable to do to stay open.

 

[Beech]

Playing down the coming vaccine in order to preserve enough panic to keep everyone inside may be the kind of paternalistic thinking partly responsible for where America is now.

There may also be many people who were fed up and about to start ignoring public health guidelines who might now think, well since a vaccine is on the way, maybe i'll continue a while longer. Im guessing that hope works better than fear for the science based.

Also, for all those based in reality, scientists were predicting this 2nd wave during the 1st wave. That winter weather would lead to a rise in cases judging by the experience of the Spanish Flu 100 years ago. That also predicted the 2nd wave would be bigger. Also a 100 years ago, there were anti mask wearing protests. Our technology has come a long way in 100 years. Humanity itself maybe not so much.

Temperatures are droping so people are staying indoors and keeping the windows closed. I doubt the announcement of successful vaccine trials have much to do with 2nd or 3rd waves, we were always expecting things to get worse as winter approached.

average age of a death in Alberta is 83. This is not the Spanish flu. The Spanish flu did not discriminate anywhere near what this is doing. There may be a 60 times higher death percentage in the vulnerable to non-vulnerable (65 and older or with medical issues). The vulnerable hid like nothing we have ever seen in the summer and early fall..

I believe that my math is right. What I have seen is: ~ 3% of all early cases in Canada were the vulnerable and thus a total death rate attributed to them of 0.33%. It came down to 0.2% in the summer and a death total of 0.028%. It increased only slightly to 0.3% by late October, so a death rate of ~ 0.35%. And over the last 3 weeks, it is back up to 1.4% and a total death of 0.16%.

They went from unaware, to hiding, to back out. At this rate, it is possible that the group will return to 3% of the daily cases real soon. By then, we may be seeing 10,000 cases a day, at 5.1-5.2 spread, the vulnerable will account for ~ 175 out of an ~ 272 death day. Tiny fluctuations in the infection rates among the vulnerable will lead to significantly more deaths than any large increase in the non-vulnerable side. Like I wrote, there may be a 60 times death probably between the two groups. What we are seeing is not simply, a rise in tide raising all ships, but a specific fluctuation among one group. A huge difference.

They have got to get back to hiding..and that needs to be drilled into them. In a nightmare scenario, the vulnerable are 20% of society and so possibly 20-25% of any daily infection. The death in those scenarios could be ~1300 people of which ~ 1200 will be from the vulnerable (based on 10,000 tested cases a day). That vaccine announcement would have been way better off in January. The vulnerable must return to life in June-September.

 

[The Lewler]

The additional nightmare scenario is large numbers of people suffering from long haul covid with chronic symptoms .

 

[Icelevel]

COVID-19 outbreak at B.C. mink farm raises concerns about virus mutation

“Health officials have not revealed the name of the farm, but Fraser Health on Sunday confirmed eight employees there had tested positive for the virus.
Millions of mink have been culled in countries such as Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark after a strain of the virus was passed from humans to mink, then back to humans in a mutated form.“

COVID-19 outbreak at B.C. mink farm raises concerns about virus mutation

 

[Sens]

Two people in the uk got severe reaction to the vaccine and the uk issued a warning that people with allergies should not get the vaccine

lol

 

[Sens]

Doctor on the news said pregnant woman won’t in the vaccine study so they will not be allowed to get the vaccine

 

[Sens]

Science though said it was good

 

[GCK]

Science though said it was good

Why don’t we wait to see if the reactions are related to the vaccine and also see how strong the reactions are. There were no reports in the trials so this seems odd.

 

[foggyvisor]

Science though said it was good

How does this compare to what science said about other vaccines and how they turned out? Is it any different? How can you bash science without doing your due diligence? Because you're being lazy, you might erode confidence in these vaccines. That is dangerous.

The vaccine is now in stage 4, which is where it undergoes post-approval surveillance as it's pushed into the general population. This is a very important stage where you watch for things like allergic reactions and other adverse effects. And those effects need to be proven for causation.

It's really amazing what happens when the general public suddenly become arm-chair scientists...

 

[Xspyrit]

I hadn't read that article yet, even if from April, quite interesting

8 times world leaders downplayed the coronavirus and put their countries at greater risk for infection


1) Chinese authorities downplayed the threat of the outbreak when it first began in December, failing to communicate crucial information, and allowing millions of people to travel throughout the world.

2) Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte downplayed the coronavirus infections in February, and the country's foreign minister accused the media of inflating information about the spread of the illness.

3) President Donald Trump has repeatedly downplayed the virus, calling it a "hoax" early on and claiming to have everything completely under control.

4) Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the UK government believed the coronavirus was a "moderate risk" up until late February, and were late to impose a national lockdown.

5) Iranian officials confidently told the country that the virus would not be a problem, and have been accused of withholding crucial information.

6) As COVIS-19 cases soared, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez allowed large gatherings to proceed in sports stadiums and rallies

7) Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has blatantly ignored warnings over the coronavirus and has encouraged Mexicans not to succumb to "fear or psychosis."

8) Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the coronavirus by calling it "a measly cold" and questioning the merits of social distancing measures that scientists have found successfully limit the spread of the virus.

I mean, a 40 y/o old virgin spreading false information from his parents basement is quite different than country leaders... These "leaders" hould be ashamed and give their demission (IMO should be trialed for crime against humanity). They have failed their people and caused a lot more deaths and suffering than if they reacted as true leaders. And Trump had the nerves to even tried to get re-elected.

Italy, Spain, UK, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Iran among the most deaths per capita. Only China is not and I think it's because the population took the situation very seriously right away. I could dig more stuff but this article talks about it :

What's behind China's low COVID-19 death rate

"I talked to the students, I talked to the teachers, and I had the impression that there was a collective understanding that strict quarantine was really necessary in order to protect everybody."

"I tell you, in Wuhan, it almost becomes an instinct to wear a mask. If you go out without wearing a mask, you feel strange. It is that kind of awareness to help yourself to help others that really help cut the path of the contagiousness of the virus."