OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 6

[SPF6ty9]

Do you have links you'd like to share? I'm not really sure if I google what you've asked me to google that we're going to read the same things.

That aside, I'm an optimist. There's always the belief that certain conversions are difficult to attain but the fact is it depends on the government's appetite for change. If they say "renewable/clean/green energy is the way forward and this is how we're going to make it happen" it will happen much quicker than anyone anticipates. Are we talking about an overnight 100% adoption? No, that's absurd.

But when they made internet access a priority, they funneled money into the construction of public infrastructure and broadband networks to distribute access points for internet and cell phone connectivity across Canada. Without the government stepping in and saying "here's $x billions in funding to start building these networks" that process would have happened much, much more slowly.

Maybe we could be a country that assumes a leading role in the clean/green energy revolution instead of buying the tech from someone else like China or the US. Being at the forefront of that industry could pay for those things you talk about. And then some.

The paradigm shift to greener energy and technology sounds great now. With govs providing stimulus, lower consumption, and low borrowing rates; there's an abundance of cash and efficiency is not being stressed to determine where that cash is going. Now down the road, when we're paying back that money through increased consumption, taxes, inflation, and eventually higher interest rates; wallets are going to get a little tighter.

My point here is that we're in an environment right now where we can make concessions on efficiency for green innovation. But once things get more expensive and taxes have gone up, are people really going to have patience to be paying for these green initiatives that could be unreliable in the short term or just a long way away in general? You're seeing people valuing electric vehicle and battery companies as multi-billion dollar companies before they even have a working product.

I hope we're able to move towards greener technology. But I feel like the reality is that for people to maintain the quality of life they're accustomed to, the move will be more gradual and bumpy then just flipping a switch.

 

[JD1]

An interesting article on rapid testing

Toronto Star: Canada has been reluctant to embrace rapid tests. This Harvard epidemiologist says we can’t afford to wait.
Canada has been reluctant to embrace rapid tests. This Harvard epidemiologist says we can’t afford to wait

 

[Micklebot]

An interesting article on rapid testing

Toronto Star: Canada has been reluctant to embrace rapid tests. This Harvard epidemiologist says we can’t afford to wait.
Canada has been reluctant to embrace rapid tests. This Harvard epidemiologist says we can’t afford to wait

I've always thought ideally we could replace people doing the self assessment checklists that include a temperature scan with at home rapid testing, and if the at home test comes up positive you head off to get a pcr test or self quarantine for 14 days.

So long as people think of the rapid tests as a screening tool like the self assesment check lists and don't treat it as a perfect diagnostic test akin to getting a pcr test (which itself isn't perfect), it could be really valuable.

In theory, with everyone taking a rapid test every 2nd or 3rd day, we'd find more asymptomatic infections who could confirm their status with a pcr test thus giving us better data on the spread too.

 

[coladin]

Wrong guy to try to explain this but outside of known health repercussions ; its a mistrust issue or belief that the risks outweigh the benefits. I can offer no more insight

Pretty much this. Fastest vaccine in the history of the world to be developed, and I know money has a lot to do with it. I am slightly leery of receiving the vaccine and am perfectly content to wait for others to go ahead. Do I want my mother to take it? Yes, because she is a senior and she has those delightful premorbidities. A healthy teen or young adult? I would think a little more about it. Ultimately, I think I would have the vaccine but wouldn’t rush to get to the front of the line.

Funny how H1N1, I didn’t think twice about getting the vaccine, but this one gives me some pause

 

[JD1]

Pretty much this. Fastest vaccine in the history of the world to be developed, and I know money has a lot to do with it. I am slightly leery of receiving the vaccine and am perfectly content to wait for others to go ahead. Do I want my mother to take it? Yes, because she is a senior and she has those delightful premorbidities. A healthy teen or young adult? I would think a little more about it. Ultimately, I think I would have the vaccine but wouldn’t rush to get to the front of the line.

Funny how H1N1, I didn’t think twice about getting the vaccine, but this one gives me some pause

There was an unprecedented level of spending and cooperation across the globe on this and they weren't starting from ground zero, they knew how coronaviruses basically functioned.

Fortunately you're not going to be at the front of the line, neither am I.

Hopefully by April or so there'll be somewhat of a herd immunity starting to be established. With seniors and health care professionals vaccinated a lot of us can return to a more normal life

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

In the initial days of the immunization programs, herd immunity will not be the goal, said [Alison Thompson, a researcher at the University of Toronto who focuses on ethical issues in public health.]

“There simply isn’t enough vaccine supply to achieve this — and we don’t even know yet if these vaccines will halt transmission of COVID-19. So the choice to get the vaccine or not will be a personal health decision in the early days of immunization programs and people need to have the facts in order to make informed choices about whether and when to get vaccinated.”

A segment from a longer-form piece in this morning's Citizen that's well worth a read.

The complex logistics behind rolling out COVID-19 vaccines | Ottawa Citizen

 

[Beech]

What are the reasons that people wouldn't want it?

High Rates of Adverse Events Linked with 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Vaccine

if the covid vaccine is remotely like this..then, it may kill just as many people as the virus itself. Let's hope not.

 

[Beech]

There was an unprecedented level of spending and cooperation across the globe on this and they weren't starting from ground zero, they knew how coronaviruses basically functioned.

Fortunately you're not going to be at the front of the line, neither am I.

Hopefully by April or so there'll be somewhat of a herd immunity starting to be established. With seniors and health care professionals vaccinated a lot of us can return to a more normal life

so you are advocating the "let someone else be the guinea pig". The H1N1 failed vaccine showed that some early users paid a price. Early batches of the Polio vaccine led to deaths.

It is ironic, the government is probably going to force health care and other front line workers to be guinea pigs...and so if any problems exist, they pay the price and we the "low priority" can just sit back and wait until it is safe.

There is a component of, send the women and children in first. I am not sure if that is being considered properly. ..if they were smart, they would order every male and female between 22 and 52 to get it first. and in reverse order to their job importance. Essentially doctors, nurses and all essential personnel later.

They have generals working on this...did they not learn anything from the military. It's not like 60 year doctors are infantry men or are sent to battle first!!! The only time in my life when I do not regret being a Doctor.

 

[SPF6ty9]

High Rates of Adverse Events Linked with 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Vaccine

if the covid vaccine is remotely like this..then, it may kill just as many people as the virus itself. Let's hope not.

With so many different versions of the vaccine coming out, you know that over time some will end up safer than others, it would suck to end up taking one of less safe ones.

Other concerns are covid being an RNA virus, which has a high rate of mutation and a planet wide vaccination could perhaps be a catalyst to further mutation rendering the current vaccines ineffective. If it mutates into something harmless though, that would be awesome.

 

[Beech]

With so many different versions of the vaccine coming out, you know that over time some will end up safer than others, it would suck to end up taking one of less safe ones.

Other concerns are covid being an RNA virus, which has a high rate of mutation and a planet wide vaccination could perhaps be a catalyst to further mutation rendering the current vaccines ineffective. If it mutates into something harmless though, that would be awesome.

Okay..you have just hit me with an OUCH..back to hiding under the bed...eeecccchhh.

 

[coladin]

The more I think of it, I think after seniors in LTC homes and medical workers, next should be school/university aged children and anyone involved in schools. Why?

1. Bring a sense of normalcy to their lives. I have three that are clearly struggling, and mental issues are pretty evident in all the parents I speak with. Get back to school and have it the way it was. Proms are huge, life moments. You don't get another one.

2. School aged are most likely to spread COVID. I have nothing to back that up, other than what is slowly being revealed in Ontario, in Brampton. It is no surprise that the worst affected wards in Ottawa have high amounts of children. I know that many children are gathering without masks, and young adults in basements, etc...

3. It would be relatively easy to vaccinate them as they are in school, as they have done for other vaccines at school over the years.

4. They can visit grandma and grandpa, which will greatly affect the seniors state of mind.

5. Students have a more carefree attitude, whereas the 50-70 crowd are more wise to the dangers of covid.

Thoughts?

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

The more I think of it, I think after seniors in LTC homes and medical workers, next should be school/university aged children and anyone involved in schools. Why?

1. Bring a sense of normalcy to their lives. I have three that are clearly struggling, and mental issues are pretty evident in all the parents I speak with. Get back to school and have it the way it was. Proms are huge, life moments. You don't get another one.

2. School aged are most likely to spread COVID. I have nothing to back that up, other than what is slowly being revealed in Ontario, in Brampton. It is no surprise that the worst affected wards in Ottawa have high amounts of children. I know that many children are gathering without masks, and young adults in basements, etc...

3. It would be relatively easy to vaccinate them as they are in school, as they have done for other vaccines at school over the years.

4. They can visit grandma and grandpa, which will greatly affect the seniors state of mind.

5. Students have a more carefree attitude, whereas the 50-70 crowd are more wise to the dangers of covid.

Thoughts?

Makes a lot of sense.

I especially agree with you that for those kids it'd be important to see them return to normalcy.

Feel very bad for those that are missing out on senior year of high school, or first year of university.

 

[DaveMatthew]

It's incredibly frustrating that all levels of government have been preaching about personal responsibility, without giving people the tools that would help them be responsible.

Widespread and frequent rapid antigen testing (public health screening to suppress outbreaks) is the best possible tool we have at our disposal today—and we are not using it. It would significantly reduce the spread of the virus without having to shut down the country again.

Antigen tests are “contagiousness” tests. They are extremely effective (>98% sensitive compared to the typically used PCR test) in detecting COVID-19 when individuals are most contagious. Paper-strip antigen tests are inexpensive, simple to manufacture, give results within minutes, and can be used within the privacy of our own home.

If only 50% of the population tested themselves in this way every 4 days, we can achieve vaccine-like “herd effects” (which is when onward transmission of the virus across the population cannot sustain itself—like taking fuel from a fire—and the outbreak collapses). Unlike vaccines, which stop onward transmission through immunity, testing can do this by giving people the tools to know, in real-time, that they are contagious and thus stop themselves from unknowingly spreading to others.

This program doesn’t require the entire population to participate. Even if half of the community disregards their results or chooses to not participate altogether, outbreaks would still be turned around in weeks. The point is to use these tests frequently so people are likely to know their status early, before they transmit to others. It is frequency and speed to get results, and not absolute sensitivity of the test that should take center stage in a public health screening program to stop outbreaks.

To catch infectious people, rapid antigen tests work in asymptomatics as well as they do in symptomatics. A public health test doesn’t care about symptoms, it cares only about detecting virus—and if someone is very infectious, the virus will be there, detectable by the test—regardless of whether the symptoms are. Reports have caused confusion stating that rapid antigen tests do not work as well in asymptomatics—this is a myth.

How We Can Stop the Spread of Coronavirus by Christmas

As we're all waiting for a vaccine rollout, which will be long and complex, why are we not delivering the rapid tests to every single household? If you partner with Amazon, Fedex, UPS and Canada Post, you can blanket the entire country in days. And the cost, compared to what we're doing, would be low.

Instead, we're being told that the only option is to shut things down (except for LCBO's, of course).

Nobody needs more press conferences and commercials from public officials. People need practical solutions.

 

[DaveMatthew]

An interesting article on rapid testing

Toronto Star: Canada has been reluctant to embrace rapid tests. This Harvard epidemiologist says we can’t afford to wait.
Canada has been reluctant to embrace rapid tests. This Harvard epidemiologist says we can’t afford to wait

To my post above, this is 100% what we should be doing.

That we haven't already rolled out a rapid testing program is a testament to the incompetence of all levels of government and health officials in this country.

Anyone, like Katherine Fierlbeck in that article, who takes the position that we shouldn't roll out rapid testing on a massive scale because it won't make COVID completely go away or there may be some "complications that arise on a number of different angles" is an utter idiot and should not be trusted in any capacity.

It's incredible how the goal posts have moved since March.

Flattening the curve is the immediate goal. Not eradicating COVID.

 

[Beech]

To my post above, this is 100% what we should be doing.

That we haven't already rolled out a rapid testing program is a testament to the incompetence of all levels of government and health officials in this country.

Anyone, like Katherine Fierlbeck in that article, who takes the position that we shouldn't roll out rapid testing on a massive scale because it won't make COVID completely go away or there may be some "complications that arise on a number of different angles" is an utter idiot and should not be trusted in any capacity.

It's incredible how the goal posts have moved since March.

Flattening the curve is the immediate goal. Not eradicating COVID.

As of yesterday: 415,182 tested positive cases.
I believe that the spread is: 5.33 ( Bases upon a tests per million of 316,154..ranking us mid table amongst most first world nations)
an average daily infection rate: ~ 6500..ranking us in the lower 1/3 of most first world nations
A total death of: 12665 people. Ranking us in the bottom 1/3 of all first world nations
Total tests conducted 11,977,563 at a cost of $130/test or 15.6 billion dollars. Giving us upper 10% status in terms of efficiency, effectiveness and cost of testing.

Our hospitalization rates have never even come close to anything above 20% of capacity..again, we blow by much of the world.

Our daily death rate, relative to the "Armageddon scenario" has been around 15% and never even coming close to the ~ 820 deaths a day that the nightmare scenario called for.

By the the time late March rolls around and we have had almost 1 full year, we will be at no more than 22,000 deaths. While tragic, it will represent a mere 2.7-2.8% of added deaths...(relative to the deaths we see naturally in society). or about 0.1% of society at large. 1/20 to 1/25 of what the nightmare scenario called for.

The reality is, by the time the vaccine is fully in circulation and much of this nightmare is over. It will have only had a minor impact on us health/death wise.

What more should be, will be, realistically be, done? These numbers are so low relative to original fears, We as citizens, our government and "what ever cosmic forces" are out there, F'ng saved our asses. 500,000-600,00 Canadians could have perished. Instead, we are heading towards 22,000.

 

[JD1]

To my post above, this is 100% what we should be doing.

That we haven't already rolled out a rapid testing program is a testament to the incompetence of all levels of government and health officials in this country.

Anyone, like Katherine Fierlbeck in that article, who takes the position that we shouldn't roll out rapid testing on a massive scale because it won't make COVID completely go away or there may be some "complications that arise on a number of different angles" is an utter idiot and should not be trusted in any capacity.

It's incredible how the goal posts have moved since March.

Flattening the curve is the immediate goal. Not eradicating COVID.

I completely agree with rapid testing and with the notion that the government has shifted the goalposts since day one

 

[DaveMatthew]

What more should be, will be, realistically be, done? These numbers are so low relative to original fears, We as citizens, our government and "what ever cosmic forces" are out there, F'ng saved our asses. 500,000-600,00 Canadians could have perished. Instead, we are heading towards 22,000.

Well, seeing as how the general population is not going to get vaccinated overnight, even with that on the horizon, the virus will continue spreading, we'll likely be forced to continue locking down significant sectors of our economy until Summer/Fall 2021. That will be catastrophic to thousands of people from a health perspective, and millions from a financial perspective.

Keep in mind, we've never gone through a winter with COVID. The worst may very well be yet to come.

Rapid tests have proven to be effective. They're cheap. They're easy to distribute. And they would give people the peace of mind to know whether they should go out, or stay home - allowing us to re-open while lowering risks.

 

[JD1]

so you are advocating the "let someone else be the guinea pig". The H1N1 failed vaccine showed that some early users paid a price. Early batches of the Polio vaccine led to deaths.

It is ironic, the government is probably going to force health care and other front line workers to be guinea pigs...and so if any problems exist, they pay the price and we the "low priority" can just sit back and wait until it is safe.

There is a component of, send the women and children in first. I am not sure if that is being considered properly. ..if they were smart, they would order every male and female between 22 and 52 to get it first. and in reverse order to their job importance. Essentially doctors, nurses and all essential personnel later.

They have generals working on this...did they not learn anything from the military. It's not like 60 year doctors are infantry men or are sent to battle first!!! The only time in my life when I do not regret being a Doctor.

I'm not advocating anything, I'm simply recognizing that I'm at the back of the line

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make regarding the generals. As far as I can tell, they're there to run the logistics, not to make health care decisions

 

[Stylizer1]

The more I think of it, I think after seniors in LTC homes and medical workers, next should be school/university aged children and anyone involved in schools. Why?

1. Bring a sense of normalcy to their lives. I have three that are clearly struggling, and mental issues are pretty evident in all the parents I speak with. Get back to school and have it the way it was. Proms are huge, life moments. You don't get another one.

2. School aged are most likely to spread COVID. I have nothing to back that up, other than what is slowly being revealed in Ontario, in Brampton. It is no surprise that the worst affected wards in Ottawa have high amounts of children. I know that many children are gathering without masks, and young adults in basements, etc...

3. It would be relatively easy to vaccinate them as they are in school, as they have done for other vaccines at school over the years.

4. They can visit grandma and grandpa, which will greatly affect the seniors state of mind.

5. Students have a more carefree attitude, whereas the 50-70 crowd are more wise to the dangers of covid.

Thoughts?

these vaccines are for adults only.

 

[DaveMatthew]

The more I think of it, I think after seniors in LTC homes and medical workers, next should be school/university aged children and anyone involved in schools. Why?

1. Bring a sense of normalcy to their lives. I have three that are clearly struggling, and mental issues are pretty evident in all the parents I speak with. Get back to school and have it the way it was. Proms are huge, life moments. You don't get another one.

2. School aged are most likely to spread COVID. I have nothing to back that up, other than what is slowly being revealed in Ontario, in Brampton. It is no surprise that the worst affected wards in Ottawa have high amounts of children. I know that many children are gathering without masks, and young adults in basements, etc...

3. It would be relatively easy to vaccinate them as they are in school, as they have done for other vaccines at school over the years.

4. They can visit grandma and grandpa, which will greatly affect the seniors state of mind.

5. Students have a more carefree attitude, whereas the 50-70 crowd are more wise to the dangers of covid.

Thoughts?

I would say it should be the opposite.

I've said this in a few posts, but the goal is not to eradicate COVID. It's to stop the spread and protect the vulnerable.

For 99.9% of kids, they will get it, have no symptoms, and be immune without a vaccine.

The priority should be:

1. Elderly + Immunocompromised (required)
2. Medical workers (required)
3. All ages with pre-existing conditions (highly, highly recommended)
4. Over 45 years old (highly-recommended)
5. Under 45 years old (Recommended but not required)

Keep in mind, that the target does not need to be 100% immunization to live like we did in February. You only really need ~60-65% vaccinated to severely limit the spread.

 

[Micklebot]

I would say it should be the opposite.

I've said this in a few posts, but the goal is not to eradicate COVID. It's to stop the spread and protect the vulnerable.

For 99.9% of kids, they will get it, have no symptoms, and be immune without a vaccine.

The priority should be:

1. Elderly + Immunocompromised (required)
2. Medical workers (required)
3. All ages with pre-existing conditions (highly, highly recommended)
4. Over 45 years old (highly-recommended)
5. Under 45 years old (Recommended but not required)

Keep in mind, that the target does not need to be 100% immunization to live like we did in February. You only really need ~60-65% vaccinated to severely limit the spread.

I think a good stratedgy to make your limited supply of vaccines early on have the greatest impact on slowing the spread would be to target demographics most commonly linked to superspreader events or spreaders in general. Not sure who that is (insert joke about prioritizing political rally goers here) but it might turn out that the people who are facilitating the spead by their behaviours are not those who themselves are most vulnerable, but by vaccinating them you can protect a larger group more efficiently.

So... Vacinate the anti maskers and covid deniers?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think a good stratedgy to make your limited supply of vaccines early on have the greatest impact on slowing the spread would be to target demographics most commonly linked to superspreader events or spreaders in general. Not sure who that is (insert joke about prioritizing political rally goers here) but it might turn out that the people who are facilitating the spead by their behaviours are not those who themselves are most vulnerable, but by vaccinating them you can protect a larger group more efficiently.

So... Vacinate the anti maskers and covid deniers?

Do you know if a vaccinated person can spread the virus? IE does the virus exist in a state in a vaccinated host , where the host has antibodies to fight it but can still spread it?

 

[Micklebot]

Do you know if a vaccinated person can spread the virus? IE does the virus exist in a state in a vaccinated host , where the host has antibodies to fight it but can still spread it?

Idk, that's a fair question. I'm reasonably sure i read people who have higher viral loads are shedding more virus thus more likely to infect others and presumably vaccination helps lower your viral load, but its entirely possible what i read was wrong, and/or even with a lower viral load you can still be passing on the virus.

I mean, the whole concept of herd immunity is based on the idea that if enough people are immune then spread slows and those who can't be vaccinated (for example due to medical reasons) or just dont are also protected

 

[JD1]

Do you know if a vaccinated person can spread the virus? IE does the virus exist in a state in a vaccinated host , where the host has antibodies to fight it but can still spread it?

I read something a few days ago from a talking suit from one of the 3 companies seeking approval for their vaccine. He said he wasn't sure, that it needs to be further researched.

This isn't the same article I read, but it's the same quote

Can You Spread Coronavirus After You Receive the Vaccine?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Idk, that's a fair question. I'm reasonably sure i read people who have higher viral loads are shedding more virus thus more likely to infect others and presumably vaccination helps lower your viral load, but its entirely possible what i read was wrong, and/or even with a lower viral load you can still be passing on the virus.

I mean, the whole concept of herd immunity is based on the idea that if enough people are immune then spread slows and those who can't be vaccinated (for example due to medical reasons) or just dont are also protected

I just found this on it after I asked. COVID-19 vaccines may not prevent spread of virus, so mask-wearing, other protections still critical