If Graves is exposed, I believe that he would be the pick for Seattle. A 25/26 year old 6'-5" defenseman with mobility that is signed for two more years is difficult to pass up. Bura, Kadri, Compher, and Jost likely would be of interest as well with the 4/4 arrangement, but I have to think that Graves is the selection, assuming that he is exposed (it seems like he would have to be with the 4/4 protection arrangement). With the possible loss of Graves and Cole departing, Sakic's building of defensive depth seems astute (Timmins, Byram, Helleson, Barron, Gilbert). Gilbert may be overlooked in that regard, although he could be exposed as well based on the rules (correct? - he could be of interest to Seattle as well).
Perhaps the confusion with Timmins arises from the definition of accrued seasons? It appears that the 2020 MOU only modified the 2012 CBA, and in the 2012 CBA it discusses 40 games played for an accrued season, but it also discusses including players on active rosters compared to injured reserves or lists (I did not spend too much time analyzing the details). It is difficult to imagine that Timmins is eligible for the expansion draft based on him missing the entire 2018-2019 season, but I know that others have expressed some doubt, which presumably arises from the definitions of active roster versus injured reserve/list status for Timmins during that one season. He was practicing with the Avs for at least a portion of that season although he did not play in the NHL or AHL.
I don't see Sakic arranging a trade with Seattle involving a first round draft pick. He has yet to trade a first round pick during his tenure and the Avs have not traded a first round pick in nearly a decade.