Poland about to sack Fernando Santos, direct qualification is looking less likely but they are practically guaranteed a playoff spot so they will have a second chance at least. They have gone the foreign route and domestic route in recent years, and in reality every time I watch them I'm bored to tears, no real quality but they have an elite goalscorer and solid goalkeeping usually
According to these calculations websites the tightest group is the runner-up between Romania/Israel, that's essentially 50/50 (Romania slight favorites), Finland is basically 65-35 favorites over Slovenia. Surprised to see how these sites still have Turkey are heavy favorites for 2nd place with Armenia and Wales breathing down their necks with fairly "easier" fixtures. Sweden meanwhile is officially <1% chance to qualify
If the qualifications were to end today here would be the playoffs (of course this will change a bit but just to give you an idea what teams are in play):
PATH A
Poland vs. Estonia
Wales vs. draw between Finland/Ukraine/Iceland
PATH B
Israel vs. draw between Finland/Ukraine/Iceland
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. draw between Finland/Ukraine/Iceland
PATH C
Georgia vs. Luxembourg
Greece vs. Kazakhstan
If Ukraine qualify automatically, Italy will go to Path A and play Estonia in the semifinals; if Finland qualify automatically, Norway will take their place in the open draw. If Israel qualifies automatically it opens the door to one of Slovenia (who can still qualify automatically) or Republic of Ireland. ROI is essentially the cutoff, anybody below them has no chance of playoffs which includes the likes of Albania who are currently in good shape to make it automatically so its theirs to lose. Just to put it into perspective they apparently have a 91% chance to qualify directly, their chances of making the playoffs should they not is 0.8%. Sweden are ranked too low from the NL to get a playoff spot