Speculation: Erik Karlsson on the move at the deadline?

[Ogelthorpe]

So, after reading more of this thread than I probably should have, here is what I’ve learned.
1) too many people obviously don’t either know that Pittsburgh can take money back in a deal to make the cap numbers work, or just to ignore that fact to try and make it seem like the Penguins are “stuck with him”
2) there are actually people that are dumb enough to think Karlsson is a cap dump. That’s the kind of intelligence, or lack there of, that would make their parents not want to claim them.
3) People need to understand that coaching matters. Knowing how to utilize a players strengths while minimizing their weaknesses is why you see so many change of scenery trades make a player flourish…..and also why a player who is performing well, goes to a new system and flounders……. To that matter, surrounding personnel have a similar effect.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

I'm absolutely obsessed with Pens fans who think the Karlsson trade was great for them. I feel confident that every single team in the NHL would take Sam Dickinson, Mikael Granlund, and Jan Rutta over Erik Karlsson.

In a vacuum, you could be right. However, in reality, my previous post, specifically point 3, is exactly why it was good for the Penguins. Sullivan hated Grandlund, and had absolutely zero idea how to use Jan Rutta. Those 2 also weren’t the type of players who can “go rogue” and just do their thing.
While Sullivan still doesn’t understand how to get the best version of Erik Karlsson, Karlsson still shows that he is capable of being a top pair guy based solely on his talent and freelancing. The Penguins need a rebuild, and come playoff time, Erik Karlsson is still going to be sought after, especially if a team has the luxury of having him play on a second pair and top PP unit.

 

[Juxtaposer]

In a vacuum, you could be right. However, in reality, my previous post, specifically point 3, is exactly why it was good for the Penguins. Sullivan hated Grandlund, and had absolutely zero idea how to use Jan Rutta. Those 2 also weren’t the type of players who can “go rogue” and just do their thing.
While Sullivan still doesn’t understand how to get the best version of Erik Karlsson, Karlsson still shows that he is capable of being a top pair guy based solely on his talent and freelancing. The Penguins need a rebuild, and come playoff time, Erik Karlsson is still going to be sought after, especially if a team has the luxury of having him play on a second pair and top PP unit.

When the Penguins trade Karlsson after getting zero playoff games out of him, they will not get anything close to the futures value of Sam Dickinson and will not have used the cap space they gained from "dumping" Granlund and Rutta to improve their team. They may get a late 1st from a contender by retaining 50%, but whatever prospect that ends up being will never share the ice with Sidney Crosby.

So with all that in mind, what even was the point of acquiring him? To prevent them from getting a top-10 pick for a couple of years and also not make the playoffs?

This is not an indictment of Karlsson BTW, whom I have nothing but love for and will root for individually wherever he goes. It's the just the reality of the situation.

 

[SomeDude]

Has a Norris Trophy winning defender ever been moved this much?

Paul Coffey played for like 8 teams.

 

[Darren McCord]

I'm absolutely obsessed with Pens fans who think the Karlsson trade was great for them. I feel confident that every single team in the NHL would take Sam Dickinson, Mikael Granlund, and Jan Rutta over Erik Karlsson.

Meh the trade was great at the time. But Sullivan is an awful coach and the graves and jarry contracts suck.

If they would have fired Sullivan or even just Reirden and made the playoffs last year. The first ends up later and no one cares.

The team underperformed due to an awful coach and system. In hindsight it ended up bad but at the time it was good. They traded a first not Dickinson. Dickinson was the Sabers pick anyways. They had to trade up. If anything the sabres gave him away.

 

[Turin]

nhl GMs are in for a RUDE awakening when they find out karlsson is bad defensively!

I'm absolutely obsessed with Pens fans who think the Karlsson trade was great for them. I feel confident that every single team in the NHL would take Sam Dickinson, Mikael Granlund, and Jan Rutta over Erik Karlsson.

Petry was a cap dump and so was Granlund. Rutta was fine but slightly overpaid for being a #6 D. Pens would have gladly have forfeited all three of those players for literally nothing back. If there was any juice in the core left to squeeze, getting a guy like Karlsson was necessary.

In case people have somehow forgotten, this was Granlund's career trajectory when traded.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

When the Penguins trade Karlsson after getting zero playoff games out of him, they will not get anything close to the futures value of Sam Dickinson and will not have used the cap space they gained from "dumping" Granlund and Rutta to improve their team. They may get a late 1st from a contender by retaining 50%, but whatever prospect that ends up being will never share the ice with Sidney Crosby.

So with all that in mind, what even was the point of acquiring him? To prevent them from getting a top-10 pick for a couple of years and also not make the playoffs?

This is not an indictment of Karlsson BTW, whom I have nothing but love for and will root for individually wherever he goes. It's the just the reality of the situation.

The point of acquiring him was to try and help an aging Sid and Geno offensively and to help fix a poor power play. Once again though, the problem is how the man behind the bench tries to use his pieces. From a GM standpoint, it was worth taking a chance. It didn’t work. That happens. Now it’s time to use his value to continue a rebuild, and to give Karlsson a legit shot at a Cup.
The trade at the time was well worth the shot. One last chance to get the core three a help at a final run. Once Hextall signed Gino instead of Trocheck, you had to at least try to surround them with elite talent that was ready immediately.
If you sign a much younger Trocheck, you can wait on a guy like Dickinson.

 

[FerrisRox]

Has a Norris Trophy winning defender ever been moved this much?

Paul Coffey was traded seven times.

 

[Empoleon8771]

When the Penguins trade Karlsson after getting zero playoff games out of him, they will not get anything close to the futures value of Sam Dickinson and will not have used the cap space they gained from "dumping" Granlund and Rutta to improve their team. They may get a late 1st from a contender by retaining 50%, but whatever prospect that ends up being will never share the ice with Sidney Crosby.

So with all that in mind, what even was the point of acquiring him? To prevent them from getting a top-10 pick for a couple of years and also not make the playoffs?

This is not an indictment of Karlsson BTW, whom I have nothing but love for and will root for individually wherever he goes. It's the just the reality of the situation.

The point of acquiring Karlsson was to give the Crosby/Malkin/Guentzel/Letang core one last chance at making a run in the playoffs, since they barely missed out on the playoffs in 2023. The problem was that missed playoff was a sign that the team was rapidly declining and was done as a playoff team. Dubas came in and tried to give them a chance to get back to the playoffs with adding Smith and Karlsson, but once it became clear that the team was done, he shifted to a rebuild/retool focus.

In hindsight, the Karlsson trade was an absolute mistake just because the Penguins were done as a playoff team and should have immediately shifted towards a rebuild. But at the time, I don't think that was as clear as it is now. Dubas' terrible FA moves in the 2023 off-season kinda cemented that this team was done.

 

[Hockey Dad]

What would the ask from dallas be for Karlsson and Rakell

 

[stempniaksen]

Has a Norris Trophy winning defender ever been moved this much?

Funnily enough the two first guys that came to mind are former Oilers: Coffey and Pronger.

As far as Karlsson to Ottawa, I'm probably one of the few remaining fans who would be open to a reunion under the right circumstances. He's not exactly what they need but he'd be a massive upgrade on the right side and under the right circumstance (Senators dumping a lot of bad money) I think there's a deal that makes sense. The last year of his deal might cause issues, but I'd cross that bridge when they got there in hopes that his addition would help for at least the next 1.5 seasons.

I think any potential reunion trade for EK in Ottawa has to look something like the deal the Senators and Leafs swung for Dion Phaneuf back in the day. 3(+) cap dumps of varying degrees + a mid level prospect + 2nd round pick. This only works if the Penguins are willing to take 50 cents on the dollar at the cost of no retention.

To Ottawa: Erik Karlsson + Drew O'Connor + 1 or 2 AHL bodies to make #'s work
To Pittsburgh: David Perron + Mike Amadio + Anton Forsberg + Stephen Halliday + OTT 2nd 2025 + FLA/WAS 3rd 2026

 

[Empoleon8771]

Funnily enough the two first guys that came to mind are former Oilers: Coffey and Pronger.

As far as Karlsson to Ottawa, I'm probably one of the few remaining fans who would be open to a reunion under the right circumstances. He's not exactly what they need but he'd be a massive upgrade on the right side and under the right circumstance (Senators dumping a lot of bad money) I think there's a deal that makes sense. The last year of his deal might cause issues, but I'd cross that bridge when they got there in hopes that his addition would help for at least the next 1.5 seasons.

I think any potential reunion trade for EK in Ottawa has to look something like the deal the Senators and Leafs swung for Dion Phaneuf back in the day. 3(+) cap dumps of varying degrees + a mid level prospect + 2nd round pick. This only works if the Penguins are willing to take 50 cents on the dollar at the cost of no retention.

To Ottawa: Erik Karlsson + Drew O'Connor + 1 or 2 AHL bodies to make #'s work
To Pittsburgh: David Perron + Mike Amadio + Anton Forsberg + Stephen Halliday + OTT 2nd 2025 + FLA/WAS 3rd 2026

I think the Penguins would likely do this but I think they'd probably prefer to retain a bit to get a better return.

I think the Phaneuf and Burns deals are both reasonable trades to point at for a base for a Karlsson trade. Ideally the Penguins both retain like San Jose did on Burns while also taking back numerous cap dumps like Toronto did for Phaneuf. The only issue with Ottawa is that the Penguins likely need a RD back as one of the dumps and I think both Jensen and Zub are too much for that.

The basis I'd be shooting for is something like Karlsson at $7 million for a $4 million cap dump/replacement RD, $3 million cap dump forward and the equivalent futures of a late 1st, 2 2nds or a 2nd and a B prospect.

 

[Nanuuk]

If you wanted to do Kuzy for EK straight up, I'd probably do it. Switch our 1st to a 2nd or 3rd, I'd probably do it.

But under no circumstances are the Pens trading their 25 or 26 1st. We're talking potentially top 5 picks here.

EK may not have top tier value but to suggest having to add a top 5 pick to get a cap dump and a late 2nd pack is highly insulting. Discuss destroying insulting.

It wasn't intended to be insulting. It is not unheard of for a team to pay a 1st to get out from under what could be considered to be an under performing contract for an older player.

Personally, I'd keep him. He isn't under performing that badly.

I was approaching this from the point of view that Calgary has enough cap room to absorb a bad contract to relieve a team of that obligation and provide them with cap room to do something else. The cost of this would be that a high draft pick is included.

While a first is expensive, losing it for one year won't sink the direction of the team unless they are going into a total rebuild.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It wasn't intended to be insulting. It is not unheard of for a team to pay a 1st to get out from under what could be considered to be an under performing contract for an older player.

Personally, I'd keep him. He isn't under performing that badly.

I was approaching this from the point of view that Calgary has enough cap room to absorb a bad contract to relieve a team of that obligation and provide them with cap room to do something else. The cost of this would be that a high draft pick is included.

While a first is expensive, losing it for one year won't sink the direction of the team unless they are going into a total rebuild.

But again, why would the Pittsburgh Penguins with the state of their franchise want to do that? There is no precedent for a team with a top-10 pick trading it away to get out of a contract, let alone the contract of one of the top OFD in the NHL.

The Penguins are the team that take on bad deals in exchange for picks, they've already started doing that with Hayes and Glass last off-season.

 

[Barsky]

Funnily enough the two first guys that came to mind are former Oilers: Coffey and Pronger.

As far as Karlsson to Ottawa, I'm probably one of the few remaining fans who would be open to a reunion under the right circumstances. He's not exactly what they need but he'd be a massive upgrade on the right side and under the right circumstance (Senators dumping a lot of bad money) I think there's a deal that makes sense. The last year of his deal might cause issues, but I'd cross that bridge when they got there in hopes that his addition would help for at least the next 1.5 seasons.

I think any potential reunion trade for EK in Ottawa has to look something like the deal the Senators and Leafs swung for Dion Phaneuf back in the day. 3(+) cap dumps of varying degrees + a mid level prospect + 2nd round pick. This only works if the Penguins are willing to take 50 cents on the dollar at the cost of no retention.

To Ottawa: Erik Karlsson + Drew O'Connor + 1 or 2 AHL bodies to make #'s work
To Pittsburgh: David Perron + Mike Amadio + Anton Forsberg + Stephen Halliday + OTT 2nd 2025 + FLA/WAS 3rd 2026

I think there's probably more fans that would be totally on board for that than you think

 

[Nanuuk]

But again, why would the Pittsburgh Penguins with the state of their franchise want to do that? There is no precedent for a team with a top-10 pick trading it away to get out of a contract, let alone the contract of one of the top OFD in the NHL.

The Penguins are the team that take on bad deals in exchange for picks, they've already started doing that with Hayes and Glass last off-season.

I didn't realize it was a top 10 pick. No, of course not. A GM would need his head examined.

Perhaps there are other ways to accomplish a deal. As a Flames fan, I am not enamoured over Karlsson's defence. I am interested in his offence.

But again the GM would be tarred and feather if he gave up prospects or too much for an ageing expensive player.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think there's probably more fans that would be totally on board for that than you think

I'm a bit curious, is there any chance that the Penguins could retain Karlsson down enough to get Zub back in the deal? I'd say something like Karlsson at $6 million for Zub, Amadio and futures (probably like a 2nd and prospect type of futures).

Basically the same suggestion as the other one, but the Penguins retaining more to get Zub rather than Perron.

Karlsson at $7 million for Zub, Amadio and futures is a pretty even AAV swap ($7.2 million AAV for Senators duo) while it saves Ottawa money due to Karlsson's lower money owed than AAV. Karlsson at $7 million would cost Ottawa about $12.5 million over the remaining 2.5 years of Karlsson's deal while Zub and Amadio cost about $18 million.

 

[Midnight Judges]

There is no discussion to be had if you genuinely think that Rasmus Ristolainen is a better player than Erik Karlsson.

Eh, it's not nearly as misguided as saying something along the lines of "Mark my words, Erik Karlsson will win a Norris as a Penguin and you can quote me on that."

 

[Barsky]

I'm a bit curious, is there any chance that the Penguins could retain Karlsson down enough to get Zub back in the deal? I'd say something like Karlsson at $6 million for Zub, Amadio and futures (probably like a 2nd and prospect type of futures).

Basically the same suggestion as the other one, but the Penguins retaining more to get Zub rather than Perron.

Possibly, Zub hasn't been great this season, but is still a defensive stalwart. Sandy is just having a bit of a down year, which is common enough when a young kid strikes the lottery. In any Karl deal though Dubas has to retain 50% just to start the convo imo. Even then to get Zub he'd have to add a bit at least

 

[Empoleon8771]

Possibly, Zub hasn't been great this season, but is still a defensive stalwart. Sandy is just having a bit of a down year, which is common enough when a young kid strikes the lottery. In any Karl deal though Dubas has to retain 50% just to start the convo imo. Even then to get Zub he'd have to add a bit at least

Why would the Penguins be adding to Karlsson at $5 million to get Zub at $4.6 million? Karlsson is better than Zub and the two have the same term left on their deal.

I'd understand if he's just not available but the Penguins adding for him doesn't make sense.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I just don't see how any decent GM can watch Karlsson in his own end and think this is something a contender would benefit from.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

I'm a bit curious, is there any chance that the Penguins could retain Karlsson down enough to get Zub back in the deal? I'd say something like Karlsson at $6 million for Zub, Amadio and futures (probably like a 2nd and prospect type of futures).

Basically the same suggestion as the other one, but the Penguins retaining more to get Zub rather than Perron.

Karlsson at $7 million for Zub, Amadio and futures is a pretty even AAV swap ($7.2 million AAV for Senators duo) while it saves Ottawa money due to Karlsson's lower money owed than AAV. Karlsson at $7 million would cost Ottawa about $12.5 million over the remaining 2.5 years of Karlsson's deal while Zub and Amadio cost about $18 million.

Zub is a no starter. He is basically our Petterson and the d would be soft as f*** without him.

 

[SomeDude]

I just don't see how any decent GM can watch Karlsson in his own end and think this is something a contender would benefit from.

You realize a contender just signed John Klingberg, right?

 

[Drumman44]

I just don't see how any decent GM can watch Karlsson in his own end and think this is something a contender would benefit from.

I still don't quite understand why Pittsburgh went after him when they already had Letang playing a similar role. Reminds me of a team that traded for him when they already had Brent Burns

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

I just don't see how any decent GM can watch Karlsson in his own end and think this is something a contender would benefit from.

almost every player on bad teams look will look bad defensively.

if karlsson plays on a team that actually carries the play with speed and skill it's easy to see his defensive issues being outweighed by his playdriving and playmaking.