Speculation: Erik Karlsson on the Move at the Deadline

[Empoleon8771]

Using "speculation" because I'm skeptical this source is legitimate.

https://www.si.com/onsi/breakaway/news-feed-page/pittsburgh-penguins-willing-trade-erik-karlsson

“That’s someone they want and need to move,” a source told rg.org. “I think they retain salary for sure, and you know what? He can help the right team still. Maybe with the cap going up, you never know.”

This comes a few weeks after an interesting Karlsson article posted on the NHL's main website:

https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/catc...p-with-pittsburgh-penguins-not-trade-deadline

Karlsson has two more season after this remaining on the eight-year, $92 million contract ($11.5 million average annual value) he signed with the San Jose Sharks on June 17, 2019. So, what if a championship doesn’t appear to be in the cards around the NHL Trade Deadline on March 7?

“I think that's a question that's up in the air,” he said. “There's some controllables in there and some that aren't, so I don't really know where that's at right now. Right now, I'm just focused on trying to get in the playoffs for this year because I know if we have that opportunity, I think this team is well equipped to do more than we probably could in an 82-game season."

Karlsson is still the same Karlsson he has always been: elite offensively, non-existent defensively. The Penguins would assuredly have to retain money plus take cap back. Dallas sticks out as a team that makes a boatload of sense to me, but who else could be interested?

 

[Sasha Orlov]

if they retain 50% and also attach 1sts someone might do this

 

[DackellDuck]

It’ll be to the Panthers with heavy retention.

 

[Empoleon8771]

if they retain 50% and also attach 1sts someone might do this

The idea that the Penguins would have to attach 1sts to Karlsson at $5 million is dumb. Karlsson at $5 million would have him at the same AAV as defensemen like Zadorov, Girard, Ristolainen and Demelo.

Karlsson has his issues, with his defense being a major one, but his offensive production and playdriving is well worth it at only $5 million a year.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

The idea that the Penguins would have to attach 1sts to Karlsson at $5 million is dumb.

Karlsson at $5 million would have him at the same AAV as defensemen like Zadorov, Girard, Ristolainen and Demelo.

Those guys are all better than him though

 

[Empoleon8771]

Those guys are all better than him though

There is no discussion to be had if you genuinely think that Rasmus Ristolainen is a better player than Erik Karlsson.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

There is no discussion to be had if you genuinely think that Rasmus Ristolainen is a better player than Erik Karlsson.

I wish you good luck with your trade

 

[VeteranPresence]

The idea that the Penguins would have to attach 1sts to Karlsson at $5 million is dumb. Karlsson at $5 million would have him at the same AAV as defensemen like Zadorov, Girard, Ristolainen and Demelo.

I'm not saying PIT will need to attach anything to move him, but the difference between EK @ $5M at the deadline and Zadorov etc. is that those were all signings made in the summer so teams could balance their books around them. Adding $5M mid-year without sending any salary back is impossible for any contender.

IF Karlsson is moved it will be with heavy retention plus an icky contract or two back. Only then can you start to talk about the value for his services, and that will be further hampered by his NMC. This isn't going to be an easy trade for Dubas to make.

 

[TheNewEra]

There is no discussion to be had if you genuinely think that Rasmus Ristolainen is a better player than Erik Karlsson.

some people just double down on stupid takes

retention on karlsson really depends on what the game plan is with crosby. I doubt crosby, malkin or letang will be fine with a rebuild. Retaining on karlsson puts pittsburgh 3-5 million in the hole.

 

[Sota Popinski]

if they retain 50% and also attach 1sts someone might do this

If they retain 50% they'll have multiple teams willing to send multiple 1sts or equivalent coming back. He's still a 1D.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not saying PIT will need to attach anything to move him, but the difference between EK @ $5M at the deadline and Zadorov etc. is that those were all signings made in the summer so teams could balance their books around them. Adding $5M mid-year without sending any salary back is impossible for any contender.

IF Karlsson is moved it will be with heavy retention plus an icky contract or two back. Only then can you start to talk about the value for his services, and that will be further hampered by his NMC. This isn't going to be an easy trade for Dubas to make.

They'd be taking back salary as well, I'm not expecting it to be any different. Like if Karlsson is going to Dallas, it's both the Penguins taking Dumba back while also retaining a lot of money on Karlsson.

The same thing happened with San Jose, they just had to retain less and still got a nice return for him with the less retention. The Penguins would have to retain notably more and take back bad deals to come even close to what they gave up for Karlsson.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Would love to see him return to the Sens. But if not them, where is the ideal fit for him?

I'd love to see him in Tampa or Florida.

 

[The Shadow]

as a leaf fan it saddens me to see just how terrible Dubas is as a GM. A lot of wasted time and draft picks traded away like candy.

 

[VanillaCoke]

EK for Nurse.



Do it Bowman, you know you want to.

 

[Turin]

Karlsson is still the best defenseman on Pittsburgh by a mile. The idea that he’s a cap dump if the Pens retain is just ridiculous.

 

[BB88]

At the time of the trade Pens fans were determined they’ll get the same valua back once they trade him at the end of his contract to make sense of the trade

Will be interesting to follow

 

[Empoleon8771]

Would love to see him return to the Sens. But if not them, where is the ideal fit for him?

I'd love to see him in Tampa or Florida.

I think Dallas makes the most sense, they have Lindell to cover up his defensive weaknesses and have a weak powerplay that Karlsson should be able to help. They can send Dumba back (2 years at $3.7 million) to cover most of the cost of Karlsson at $5-$6 million. Beyond them, it's tough to see that many matches. I could squint and see Carolina, Edmonton, Ottawa and Florida as options as well, but it's a fairly slim market.

Ottawa doesn't fit the contender idea like the others, but they're in a playoff spot and only 1 point behind Tampa right now while having a lot of young talent. Not exactly a stretch to think that Ottawa could take a big jump in the last 2.5 years of Karlsson's deal and make some noise.

 

[Beninnola]

I very highly doubt the penguins would move some substantial part of their future to move him. I don’t see what he’s blocking that would incentivize the Penguins to be willing to pay to offload him.

So if he moves I’d have to guess the penguins get some value in return. There’s only 2 years left. May as well retain to create a market.

 

[Empoleon8771]

At the time of the trade Pens fans were determined they’ll get the same valua back once they trade him at the end of his contract to make sense of the trade

Will be interesting to follow

They might be able to get close, but that's just because San Jose got a limited return (at the time) due to only retaining $1.5 million. They could get a late 1st for Karlsson at $5 million, but that requires them eating a $5 million AAV cap penalty for 2 years (compared to San Jose eating a $1.5 million cap penalty for 4 years) and the 1st would be way lower.

I could see Karlsson at $6 million to Dallas for Dumba and a 2025 1st being a doable deal, but I'm pretty skeptical the Penguins would get better than that. Retaining $4 million and getting a late 1st and a cap dump back for Karlsson seems to be about the best case scenario for an Karlsson trade at this point IMO.

 

[RickyLafleur]

Those guys are all better than him though

No.

 

[Viqsi]

Karlsson is still the best defenseman on Pittsburgh by a mile. The idea that he’s a cap dump if the Pens retain is just ridiculous.

Has Letang fallen off that badly? I admittedly haven't been paying attention to the Pens lately beyond occasionally glancing at the scoreboards and snickering.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Has Letang fallen off that badly? I admittedly haven't been paying attention to the Pens lately beyond occasionally glancing at the scoreboards and snickering.

...they're both cooked, imo...Letang moreso, but they both are nowhere near the offensive dynamos they once were...pair Swedish Jesus with a defensive stud, like he had in the Methot days, and he could perhaps still be of benefit, however he ain't really Swedish Jesus anymore...

 

[DrDangles]

Has Letang fallen off that badly? I admittedly haven't been paying attention to the Pens lately beyond occasionally glancing at the scoreboards and snickering.

I'm not writing him off completely yet because he was pretty solid last year and still has his athleticism, but yeah he's been dogshit through the first half of this season.

 

[oconnor9sean]

He would improve Dallas' power play immensely & Esa Lindell would be a perfect partner to help mask his defensive deficiencies at 5v5.

Harley-Heiskanen
Lindell-Karlsson
Lyubushkin-Lundkvist

 

[Empoleon8771]

Has Letang fallen off that badly? I admittedly haven't been paying attention to the Pens lately beyond occasionally glancing at the scoreboards and snickering.

Yes, his deal already looks awful. His offense took a big step back this year and his defense has been bad for years. His game has always been based on his athleticism and it's finally giving away a bit at age 37.

He's still useful as a leader/mentor for their up and coming young defensemen like Pickering and Brunicke, but yeah he's really spent as a player at this point. His deal would be up there as one of the worst deals in the NHL right now if the Penguins were a team anyone gave a crap about at this point.

...they're both cooked, imo...Letang moreso, but they both are nowhere near the offensive dynamos they once were...pair Swedish Jesus with a defensive stud, like he had in the Methot days, and he could perhaps still be of benefit, however he ain't really Swedish Jesus anymore...

Karlsson isn't what he once was but he's still extremely good offensively. Putting the two in the same category isn't fair.