Value of: Erik Karlsson at the draft

[Fourier]

Then we will keep him. He’s miles better than Burns ever was and has been the whole time he’s been in SJ.

As I’ve said like 4 times in this thread now, I’m not saying we wouldn’t take back cap. I’m not saying we won’t retain. I’m saying we need to get value back and a B prospect and late first is no where near enough to move him.

it means they are cap dumps in this trade and have 0 value to SJ. How is this hard to understand? Bourgault and a late first isn’t enough for us to move Karlsson at full value never mind retaining 3M.

I doubt you would get many Oiler fans to agree that Bourgault is a B prospect. If you think any contender would give you a first and a prospect like Bourgault for Karlsson at full value without taking back a lot of cap I don't even know what to say. You may have a hard time trading him for anything at full value to a contender if you are not willing to take back contracts.

Players like Kulak and Ceci are certainly not cap dumps. At their cap hits both could be traded for assets. Ceci in particular has played very well when his role has been reasonable. He struggled somewhat playing with Nurse before Ekholm because that pair played amongst the toughest minutes in the league and Ceci is not a top pairing defenseman. But since Ekholm has taken some of the load that pair has played much better, Ceci last year was solid as the teams #3. At worst he is a good second pairing defenseman who is paid at the bottom end of the scale for that role. If SJ did not want him it would be up to them to turn around and move him. That's just standard operating procedure when you are talking about moving a guy whose cap hit won't fit on any team he would accept a trade to.

IF SJ is content with keeping Karlsson and he wants to stay so be it. But it seems hard to believe that a team that is obviously entering a full rebuild would hold onto one of its most valuable assets too long and risk seeing his value depreciate significantly.

 

[Fourier]

The Sharks are rebuilding so their value is mostly in what value they can extract from them in a trade elsewhere. They're not going to place trade value in them in a deal for Karlsson no matter where they'd play in our lineup. So if you think either of them will move the needle a little closer to acceptable for the Sharks then you're simply mistaken. They're throw-ins for the Sharks if you want it to be less biting but it's hardly a distinction. Talking about taking contracts back to make it work is pretty much what a cap dump is and what someone like Ceci or Kulak would be in this proposal.

You could argue the same way if the Oilers included Nugent-Hopkins in the deal as well. He may have no real value to a rebuilding team but you could certainly trade him for something that does have value. So I doubt anyone would view him as a cap dump just because he would not be needed by the Sharks.

Trading for a guy like Karlsson will not be easy for any contender. It will mean moving out considerable salary. You can do this with true cap dumps or with guys that have actual value even if that value is not realized playing for the Sharks. Ceci for example is a player that the Sharks could easily get a 2nd for right away and probably more at the next trade deadline . That value would be factored into the trade for sure by both sides.

Theoretically the Oilers could trade Ceci and Kulak first and then include the assets in a deal for Karlsson. But that is very risky for them. If the Karlsson trade falls through they are left looking to restock their defense.

 

[PatrikBerglund]

Defencemen can play at a very high level up til their late 30s. Heck, Nick Lidstrom did it into his 40s.

I'm not sure Karl is one of these though, looking at all the injuries he's already had.

2 more good years, sure. But probably a more rough last 2 years of that contract.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Karlsson's salary, injury history and the unliklihood of him repeating these numbers means that San Jose is going to have to take salary back at the very least in any trade, or add decent retention.

I doubt Sharks fans will ever be happy with the return he takes. No team with the capspace to add Karlsson is in a position to want or need him.

EK on Edmonton would likely repeat these numbers the offer for EK is TERRIBLE. maybe a year ago when his numbers were less impressive but after a 100 point season do you really think SJ would entertain the idea of retaining 30% of 11m for another 4 years FOR THAT RETURN?

not going to lie, Id rather buy out Karlsson over giving him to Edmonton or any team for the offer that guy made

Wouldn't be surprised to see Holland circle back for a 3rd attempt at getting him.

2024 1st + Bourgault + Kulak + Ceci (cap reasons) for Karlsson (30% retention).

I don't see either Ceci or Kulak as cap dumps but if made available they are likely in the 3rd round pick value spot. If a team was offering the 3 1sts value for Karlsson at 18% he would have been moved already.

If San Jose is hung up on getting a 2023 1st the Oilers are obviously out.

LMFAO give me a break, you want a 100 point Dman for pennies? and dont want to even give up a late 2023 1st? incredibly low balled offer. Id never pick up the phone if you were calling as Edmonton's GM again

 

[Bruce Granville]

Defencemen can play at a very high level up til their late 30s. Heck, Nick Lidstrom did it into his 40s.

The difference being Lidström actually played D.

 

[PatrikBerglund]

The difference being Lidström actually played D.

Every single player in the NHL plays D.

 

[Advanced stats]

If im San Jose, I'm open to retaining a significant amount on him to increase the value coming back. Karlsson at 7 million is much much more attractive than Karlsson at 11.5m

SJ is not competitive in the next 4 years anyways.

 

[Hockeylife2018]

EK on Edmonton would likely repeat these numbers the offer for EK is TERRIBLE. maybe a year ago when his numbers were less impressive but after a 100 point season do you really think SJ would entertain the idea of retaining 30% of 11m for another 4 years FOR THAT RETURN?

not going to lie, Id rather buy out Karlsson over giving him to Edmonton or any team for the offer that guy made


LMFAO give me a break, you want a 100 point Dman for pennies? and dont want to even give up a late 2023 1st? incredibly low balled offer. Id never pick up the phone if you were calling as Edmonton's GM again

The 1st that's going to Nashville?
Let me call em and ask for it back

 

[Arthur Morgan]

The 1st that's going to Nashville?
Let me call em and ask for it back

oh I forgot they traded their 1st, I thought I read it if they were hung up on not getting the 2023 EDM 1st. either way its a terrible offer

 

[Saltcreek]

EK on Edmonton would likely repeat these numbers the offer for EK is TERRIBLE. maybe a year ago when his numbers were less impressive but after a 100 point season do you really think SJ would entertain the idea of retaining 30% of 11m for another 4 years FOR THAT RETURN?

not going to lie, Id rather buy out Karlsson over giving him to Edmonton or any team for the offer that guy made


LMFAO give me a break, you want a 100 point Dman for pennies? and dont want to even give up a late 2023 1st? incredibly low balled offer. Id never pick up the phone if you were calling as Edmonton's GM again

EK value peaked at the TDL and continues to drop every day since. If he can repeat his performance next season then he would have a pretty high value next TDL however that is a long time away and there is a lot of risk.

11.5m is a lot of cap space that is very hard to fit. Grier f***ed up, got greedy and ruined a good chance to get more picks for his rebuild.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

EK value peaked at the TDL and continues to drop every day since. If he can repeat his performance next season then he would have a pretty high value next TDL however that is a long time away and there is a lot of risk.

11.5m is a lot of cap space that is very hard to fit. Grier f***ed up, got greedy and ruined a good chance to get more picks for his rebuild.

maybe the owner doesnt want to pay another team to play EK?

 

[Gecklund]

And what makes you think they have no value? They would have value to your team considering they'd both be veteran, top-4 dmen on your team.

You do need to understand cause you're not getting what you think you are for EK65 even with the season he's had. $11.5m is too much for any team and you're going to have to take contracts back to make it work.

Kulak might not even be in the lineup and Ceci might be top 4 but doubt it. Neither has ANY value in this deal. I literally said 5 times now that we would take back cap. You gotta add value though to make the deal.

I doubt you would get many Oiler fans to agree that Bourgault is a B prospect. If you think any contender would give you a first and a prospect like Bourgault for Karlsson at full value without taking back a lot of cap I don't even know what to say. You may have a hard time trading him for anything at full value to a contender if you are not willing to take back contracts.

Players like Kulak and Ceci are certainly not cap dumps. At their cap hits both could be traded for assets. Ceci in particular has played very well when his role has been reasonable. He struggled somewhat playing with Nurse before Ekholm because that pair played amongst the toughest minutes in the league and Ceci is not a top pairing defenseman. But since Ekholm has taken some of the load that pair has played much better, Ceci last year was solid as the teams #3. At worst he is a good second pairing defenseman who is paid at the bottom end of the scale for that role. If SJ did not want him it would be up to them to turn around and move him. That's just standard operating procedure when you are talking about moving a guy whose cap hit won't fit on any team he would accept a trade to.

IF SJ is content with keeping Karlsson and he wants to stay so be it. But it seems hard to believe that a team that is obviously entering a full rebuild would hold onto one of its most valuable assets too long and risk seeing his value depreciate significantly.

Bourgault is the definition of B prospect.

I literally said in that post that we would take back cap.

Kulak and Ceci MOST DEFINITELY are cap dumps in this and I have no idea how this is controversial.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

EK value peaked at the TDL and continues to drop every day since. If he can repeat his performance next season then he would have a pretty high value next TDL however that is a long time away and there is a lot of risk.

11.5m is a lot of cap space that is very hard to fit. Grier f***ed up, got greedy and ruined a good chance to get more picks for his rebuild.

Prolly more accurate to say Karlsson's value peaked at the trade deadline, fell off the day after, and will be on a flat-line until the new season begins. Then (depending upon how 2023-2024 proceeds), it may creep back up, or (if we get 2017-2022 Karlsson) go down even lower.

The fact that nothing got done THIS trade-deadline had to mortify a few people, not least among them Karlsson himself.

If the holders of the Karlsson asset-package set his value at a certain level, and 31 other teams said "too much(!) We don't think so!"-- it's probably not the other 31 teams that are mis-assessing the situation.

 

[cowboy82nd]

You started watching this league yesterday or something?

If this guy was an FA this off-season, 3/4 of the GMs would be falling all over themselves to once again give him too much $$$ and term.

But he's not a FA. You want to trade him, therefore the other team has to give up assets to acquire him. That factors into everything including his age and cost.

 

[AcerComputer]

Off the ice? On the ice? His value isn't binary.

The guy is about to win his 3rd Norris Trophy and you think San Jose should retain 50% (i.e. holding $5.75m for four more years) just to 'get rid' of him... meaning another franchise can add him for under $6m per?

...and it's the Sharks who are delusional?

Before the season he had negative trade value, dont play dumb. What team can absorb that cap hit? SJ should keep him, they're one of the few teams with cap space.

 

[Fourier]

Kulak might not even be in the lineup and Ceci might be top 4 but doubt it. Neither has ANY value in this deal. I literally said 5 times now that we would take back cap. You gotta add value though to make the deal.

Bourgault is the definition of B prospect.

I literally said in that post that we would take back cap.

Kulak and Ceci MOST DEFINITELY are cap dumps in this and I have no idea how this is controversial.

No offense but if you think that Kulak might not even make your top 6 without Karlsson and that Ceci would not be in your top 4 then your valuation of players is way off.

The value in guys like Ceci and Kulak comes from the Sharks trading them. Ceci is on an excellent contract. His tier of defense has gone for multiple picks at the deadline and even a first in recent years. Kulak is a guy that can play as a #4 but is an excellent anchor for a bottom pairing on a good contract. He could easily get a third and maybe a second from a team with multiple picks. As I said the Oilers could move them first and then add these picks but that is not the way trades in the NHL play out.

You seem to think that teams have to pay the Sharks to take back such deals. If that is how the Sharks management sees it as well Karlsson will be a Shark for the duration.

Frankly I think the Oilers are out on Karlsson, who I personally have been a big fan of since his early Sens days. HIs contract would simply be too hard to fit in without significantly disrupting the roster now that they have Ekholm and now that Bouchard appears to have taken a significant step forward. They may well try to upgrade on Ceci but would certainly not be willing to give him away for free let alone pay extra for him to be included in a deal.

 

[Gecklund]

No offense but if you think that Kulak might not even make your top 6 without Karlsson and that Ceci would not be in your top 4 then your valuation of players is way off.

The value in guys like Ceci and Kulak comes from the Sharks trading them. Ceci is on an excellent contract. His tier of defense has gone for multiple picks at the deadline and even a first in recent years. Kulak is a guy that can play as a #4 but is an excellent anchor for a bottom pairing on a good contract. He could easily get a third and maybe a second from a team with multiple picks. As I said the Oilers could move them first and then add these picks but that is not the way trades in the NHL play out.

You seem to think that teams have to pay the Sharks to take back such deals. If that is how the Sharks management sees it as well Karlsson will be a Shark for the duration.

Frankly I think the Oilers are out on Karlsson, who I personally have been a big fan of since his early Sens days. HIs contract would simply be too hard to fit in without significantly disrupting the roster now that they have Ekholm and now that Bouchard appears to have taken a significant step forward. They may well try to upgrade on Ceci but would certainly not be willing to give him away for free let alone pay extra for him to be included in a deal.

They play different sides. They aren’t competing for the same spots. Sharks aren’t benching Vlasic or Ferraro or Thrun or Knyzhov. Kulak wouldn’t make it down the left side. Ceci would only be competing with Benning so if he can’t beat him then he shouldn’t be in the league. No offense but you should really look at everything before spewing shit.

Then you trade them and give us the return. We aren’t doing your dirty work.

I never said teams have to pay the Sharks to take back contracts. I said teams need to pay for Karlsson and a B prospect and late first aren’t close to enough.

Good because Oilers only have scraps to offer and every single one of their players is SO MUCH better.

 

[Saltcreek]

maybe the owner doesnt want to pay another team to play EK?

Perhaps but that is a pretty short sighted view if you are going for a rebuild. Would you rather pay a bit of retention on the chance of building an excellent team with those extra picks or do you hold on to EK to pay his full salary and get nothing?

Only way the Oilers ever make this work is sending Soup the other way and SJ retains. I just do not see that deal happening even though it would make for some great hockey

 

[BruinsBtn]

This is such a hard deal to make but Greer has to take the best deal that he can get this summer and do it. But his value could change a lot depending on whether than $4m increase in the cap happens or not.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Perhaps but that is a pretty short sighted view if you are going for a rebuild. Would you rather pay a bit of retention on the chance of building an excellent team with those extra picks or do you hold on to EK to pay his full salary and get nothing?

Only way the Oilers ever make this work is sending Soup the other way and SJ retains. I just do not see that deal happening even though it would make for some great hockey

Why would SJ trade him to Edmonton for the limited good future pieces they have and take on the mistake they made with Campbell AND retain for 4 more years on EK.
Do Oilers even have anything of value to SJ?
and who's the say EK not available? if a team is serious about acquiring him they will have to pay up.
with the offer I seen Id rather just keep EK.

 

[Fourier]

They play different sides. They aren’t competing for the same spots. Sharks aren’t benching Vlasic or Ferraro or Thrun or Knyzhov. Kulak wouldn’t make it down the left side. Ceci would only be competing with Benning so if he can’t beat him then he shouldn’t be in the league. No offense but you should really look at everything before spewing shit.

Then you trade them and give us the return. We aren’t doing your dirty work.

I never said teams have to pay the Sharks to take back contracts. I said teams need to pay for Karlsson and a B prospect and late first aren’t close to enough.

Good because Oilers only have scraps to offer and every single one of their players is SO MUCH better.

This post makes virtually no sense.

Tell me this, which defenseman do you think would be more valuable right now. Ekholm at a $6M cap or Karlsson at $11.5M?

 

[Saltcreek]

Why would SJ trade him to Edmonton for the limited good future pieces they have and take on the mistake they made with Campbell AND retain for 4 more years on EK.
Do Oilers even have anything of value to SJ?
and who's the say EK not available? if a team is serious about acquiring him they will have to pay up.
with the offer I seen Id rather just keep EK.

Any contending team will be sending a cap dump plus asking for retention on EK for a deal to happen. That is just how it is.

Also, you are over valuing EK right now, the chance to get the most return was at the TDL and his next peak will be next TDL if he keeps up his performance. Teams will not be lining up to make this trade so something has to give on SJ side.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Any contending team will be sending a cap dump plus asking for retention on EK for a deal to happen. That is just how it is.

Also, you are over valuing EK right now, the chance to get the most return was at the TDL and his next peak will be next TDL if he keeps up his performance. Teams will not be lining up to make this trade so something has to give on SJ side.

Im sure out of those contending teams one has to have something more desirable than Jack Campbell 4x5m

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You could argue the same way if the Oilers included Nugent-Hopkins in the deal as well. He may have no real value to a rebuilding team but you could certainly trade him for something that does have value. So I doubt anyone would view him as a cap dump just because he would not be needed by the Sharks.

Trading for a guy like Karlsson will not be easy for any contender. It will mean moving out considerable salary. You can do this with true cap dumps or with guys that have actual value even if that value is not realized playing for the Sharks. Ceci for example is a player that the Sharks could easily get a 2nd for right away and probably more at the next trade deadline . That value would be factored into the trade for sure by both sides.

Theoretically the Oilers could trade Ceci and Kulak first and then include the assets in a deal for Karlsson. But that is very risky for them. If the Karlsson trade falls through they are left looking to restock their defense.

You could argue that but again what does Kulak or Ceci have in terms of trade value elsewhere? If neither of them would pull in a 2nd rounder or better, it's not going to move the needle on a Karlsson trade. You have to put forth assets that make it worth trading Karlsson to say Edmonton and Kulak or Ceci are not going to be part of that package. They will part of the entire package to make the cap work if necessary but you're not convincing the Sharks to move Karlsson in any way based off of them acquiring Ceci or Kulak. I sincerely doubt Ceci's ability to pull in a 2nd round pick right away. A 3rd rounder is probably more reflective of his actual trade value. Same for Kulak but 3rd round picks don't move the needle on a trade of this sort.

 

[Saltcreek]

Im sure out of those contending teams one has to have something more desirable than Jack Campbell 4x5m

Name them? I am not denying that Soup is a bad contract but which contending team out there can afford to sell the future and not send a bad contract back?